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Re: Football forecasting system Some for the weekend. Will add spanish matches later as they playing midweek making it difficult to run the models. [TABLE=width: 209]

[TR] [TD]Hull[/TD] [TD]£11.30[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.12[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Stoke[/TD] [TD]£8.10[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.46[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]West Ham[/TD] [TD]£10.50[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.18[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Arsenal[/TD] [TD]£12.04[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.29[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Cardiff[/TD] [TD]£6.90[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.49[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Oldham[/TD] [TD]£6.95[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.89[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Leyton Orient[/TD] [TD]£6.73[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.97[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Nice[/TD] [TD]£10.30[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.52[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Roma (vs Torino)[/TD] [TD]£12.73[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.96[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Schalke[/TD] [TD]£7.86[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.16[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Brada[/TD] [TD]£9.57[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.99[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Groningen[/TD] [TD]£13.10[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.06[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Utrecht[/TD] [TD]£9.85[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.27[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Gil Vicente[/TD] [TD]£9.10[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.88[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Hamburg £9.32 at 2.37
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Re: Football forecasting system First time had two decent weeks in a row. Long may it continue. Still one game outstanding which is Elche tonight. Don't have much hope for that. Current position is Bets 121 S/R 42.1% P/L +£82.6 ROI 6.64% Bank £1082.6 for those interested where the wins are coming. Here are the individual model p/l breakdowns. Model Bet P/L ROI Premier League £216 £13 6.0% Championship £103 £16 15.9% League1 £65 £58 90.2% League2 £79 £16 19.8% France1 £85 -£34 -39.9% Spain1 £199 £45 22.8% Italy1 £84 £5 5.6% Germany1 £169 -£13 -7.6% Netherlands1 £209 -£46 -21.8% Portugal1 £36 £22 60.3% Total £1,244 £83 6.6%

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Re: Football forecasting system Some for the weekend. Lots of cup games this weekend so missing leagues. I have expanded now in Belgium also [TABLE=width: 293]

[TR] [TD]Leverkusen[/TD] [TD]£14.5[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]1.58[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Feyenoord[/TD] [TD]£12.5[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]1.87[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Lokeren[/TD] [TD]£12.6[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]1.94[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Aston Villa[/TD] [TD]£11.9[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]2.01[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Oostende[/TD] [TD]£11.8[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]2.19[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Ath Madrid[/TD] [TD]£11.1[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]2.2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Man United[/TD] [TD]£10.9[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]2.26[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Den Haag[/TD] [TD]£10.4[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]2.4[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Mainz[/TD] [TD]£9.2[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]2.59[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Genk[/TD] [TD]£8.0[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]2.64[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Waregem[/TD] [TD]£10.0[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]2.64[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Norwich[/TD] [TD]£9.6[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]2.69[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Charleroi[/TD] [TD]£8.0[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]3.3[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Zwolle[/TD] [TD]£7.2[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]3.55[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Getafe[/TD] [TD]£12.3[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD]2.12[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
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Re: Football forecasting system The run continues into its 3rd week. ROI moving up quite fast. Getting the stage now where i can absorb a bad week that is surely coming. Belgian model went well with a 52% ROI. Anyway current position is Bets 137 S/R 43.8% P/L +£137.23 ROI 9.8% Bank £1137.23

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Re: Football forecasting system Huge weekend coming up for me. I have now added the Scottish Premier league. I have exposure of £274.40 across 26 bets. Will be pretty nervous i think. Anyway here are the bets. [TABLE=width: 383]

[TR] [TD]Everton[/TD] [TD=align: right]£9.98[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.08[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Fulham[/TD] [TD=align: right]£13.01[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.39[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Stoke[/TD] [TD=align: right]£13.52[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.03[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Reading[/TD] [TD=align: right]£8.31[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.21[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bradford[/TD] [TD=align: right]£7.52[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.85[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Leyton Orient[/TD] [TD=align: right]£9.18[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.09[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Valladolid[/TD] [TD=align: right]£13.25[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Levante[/TD] [TD=align: right]£9.87[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.83[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Vallecona[/TD] [TD=align: right]£10.53[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.5[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Elche[/TD] [TD=align: right]£8.96[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.05[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Nice[/TD] [TD=align: right]£10.00[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.8[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Hoffenheim[/TD] [TD=align: right]£8.25[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.48[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Freiburg[/TD] [TD=align: right]£8.56[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.32[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Schalke[/TD] [TD=align: right]£10.00[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.75[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Leverkusen[/TD] [TD=align: right]£10.69[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.42[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Dortmund[/TD] [TD=align: right]£11.00[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.43[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Werder Bremen[/TD] [TD=align: right]£9.98[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.43[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Groningen[/TD] [TD=align: right]£11.00[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Ciercle Brugge[/TD] [TD=align: right]£10.00[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.99[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Waregem[/TD] [TD=align: right]£10.00[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.8[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Gil Vicente[/TD] [TD=align: right]£10.00[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.75[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Olhanense [/TD] [TD=align: right]£10.00[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.06[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Verona[/TD] [TD=align: right]£14.11[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.08[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Roma[/TD] [TD=align: right]£16.68[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.46[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Hibernian[/TD] [TD=align: right]£10.00[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]3[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Ross County[/TD] [TD=align: right]£10.00[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.41[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
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Re: Football forecasting system Well that never went well. Worst weekend ever and my profits have nearly been wiped out. Lucky I was up a lot to withstand it. Thinking of switching to Asian handicap betting to reduce the volatility of results, I have been investigating this for a while. May start that at the weekend if have time although tempted to stick with original plan for one more week. I did expect the introduction of more models to naturally reduce the volatility. I will hope this week was just a one off as the validation of the models indicates they are fine. Just my selection process that was out. anyway have some for tonight. Maybe more later Leyton Orient £12 at 2.42 Walsall £8.5 at 3 Bet365

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Re: Football forecasting system Struggling to find value this weekend for some reason. Here is what i have upto now. Also playing with under/overs. May add those next week. [TABLE=width: 311]

[TR] [TD]Aston Villa[/TD] [TD=align: right]£11.00[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Chelsea[/TD] [TD=align: right]£15.00[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.556[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Norwich[/TD] [TD=align: right]£13.00[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.926[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Lokeren[/TD] [TD=align: right]£11.00[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.21[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Waregem[/TD] [TD=align: right]£9.00[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.74[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Leverkusen[/TD] [TD=align: right]£16.00[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.429[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Schalke[/TD] [TD=align: right]£13.00[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.787[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Bradford[/TD] [TD=align: right]£7.50[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.46[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Arouca[/TD] [TD=align: right]£7.50[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.03[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Gil Vicente[/TD] [TD=align: right]£8.50[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]4.08[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Sevilla[/TD] [TD=align: right]£9.00[/TD] [TD]at[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.61[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Everton £13 at 1.62 Hereeeven £14 at 1.575
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Re: Football forecasting system Well after 184 bets and £1912 gambled i am almost exactly where i started in terms of P/L (+ £1.29 to be exact). So should i be glad or upset? Note sure. I have learnt a lot on the way and consequently will be changing my selection strategy slightly to try and reduce the volatility and ups and downs. I have swung from 10% up to 5 % down and back to 0% over the last 3 weeks which is a bit extreme. I don't plan to add any more models for the time being as 12 leagues is a lot to follow especially as i am researching Asian handicap and over/under betting.

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Re: Football forecasting system Some for tonight and tomorrow. Change of selection methodology and bets. Since i am pretty much at break even and due to the change in methodology i am starting again from scratch with a separate bank for each model as well as overall total. Tips for today and tomorrow can be found here. http://www.sportsforecaster.co.uk/images/Tips/031213Tips.png

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Re: Football forecasting system Changed my mind. Decided to keep the original results and bank rolling. Current position is Bets 192 S/R 41.9% P/L +£28.86 ROI 1.5% Bank £1028.86 Note that if i had just used the 4 English leagues the position would be Bets 78 S/R 51.3% P/L £190.66 ROI 26.2% Maybe that is telling me something. I do tend to use a little bit more expert judgement here if i think the model has gone offline. I have an ROI of over 14.5% in all 4 leagues.

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Re: Football forecasting system Got the tips in early this week. Will update closer to the weekend http://www.sportsforecaster.co.uk/images/Tips/Tips.jpg Current positions is almost breaking even Bets 213 S/R 40.8% P/L +£8.99 ROI 0.42% Relatively happy that although bad week last week didn't lose much. Seems a safer strategy (touch wood)

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Re: Football forecasting system Hello, guys; it's again the time of the year when we choose primus inter pares here on the forum! You might remember that we have over 20 categories to award the winners, and one of them proudly belongs to this part of the forum - we will select the thread that presented the best system / strategy here, according to the opinion of its visitors. If you're reading these words, that means you've visited this thread, and maybe you like it? If so, why wouldn't you take a minute to nominate it for an Oscar?! That way, you will reward author of this thread for his efforts, and in the same time you will help yourself with a thrill of lottery: anyone who nominates a member who actually goes on to win that award will be placed in a draw, and two lucky members will win £25 cash via Moneybookers. So get nominating! Please visit this thread and post your nomination there, under category "Best thread in Systems & Strategy". Remember: You can nominate at most 2 users per category. You don't have to nominate users in all categories - if you don't have any idea who to nominate in some category just leave it alone. Nominations will close on Dec 31st 2013 at Midnight, after that the nominations will be counted and the 4 top nominated users and ties in each category will take part in vote poll for two weeks. All nominations must be for current and active members, others will be disregarded. Thank you all, and enjoy the Holidays! :ok

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Re: Football forecasting system Bit busy this week. Here are boxing day selctions[TABLE=width: 645]

[TR] [TD] Date[/TD] [TD]Model [/TD] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]Bet[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [TD]Model odds[/TD] [TD]Odds Taken[/TD] [TD]Bookmaker[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]26-Dec[/TD] [TD]English Premier League[/TD] [TD]Aston Villa[/TD] [TD]Crystal Palace[/TD] [TD]H(+0)[/TD] [TD]£12.00[/TD] [TD]1.23[/TD] [TD]1.400[/TD] [TD]Coral[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]26-Dec[/TD] [TD]English Premier League[/TD] [TD]Chelsea[/TD] [TD]Swansea[/TD] [TD]H(+0)[/TD] [TD]£12.49[/TD] [TD]1.10[/TD] [TD]1.110[/TD] [TD]Coral[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]26-Dec[/TD] [TD]English Premier League[/TD] [TD]Everton[/TD] [TD]Sunderland[/TD] [TD]H(+0)[/TD] [TD]£15.00[/TD] [TD]1.10[/TD] [TD]1.110[/TD] [TD]Bet365[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]26-Dec[/TD] [TD]English Premier League[/TD] [TD]Man City[/TD] [TD]Liverpool[/TD] [TD]H(+0)[/TD] [TD]£12.00[/TD] [TD]1.23[/TD] [TD]1.330[/TD] [TD]Bet365[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]26-Dec[/TD] [TD]English Premier League[/TD] [TD]Norwich[/TD] [TD]Fulham[/TD] [TD]H(+0)[/TD] [TD]£10.00[/TD] [TD]1.38[/TD] [TD]1.530[/TD] [TD]Coral[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]26-Dec[/TD] [TD]English Championship[/TD] [TD]Blackpool[/TD] [TD]Leeds[/TD] [TD]H(+0)[/TD] [TD]£8.00[/TD] [TD]1.79[/TD] [TD]1.800[/TD] [TD]Pinnacle[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]26-Dec[/TD] [TD]English League 1[/TD] [TD]Port Vale[/TD] [TD]Notts County[/TD] [TD]H(+0)[/TD] [TD]£10.00[/TD] [TD]1.46[/TD] [TD]1.680[/TD] [TD]Pinnacle[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]26-Dec[/TD] [TD]English League 1[/TD] [TD]Shrewsbury[/TD] [TD]Tranmere[/TD] [TD]H(+0)[/TD] [TD]£10.00[/TD] [TD]1.48[/TD] [TD]1.530[/TD] [TD]Pinnacle[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]26-Dec[/TD] [TD]English League 2[/TD] [TD]Oxford[/TD] [TD]Plymouth[/TD] [TD]H(+0)[/TD] [TD]£11.00[/TD] [TD]1.29[/TD] [TD]1.400[/TD] [TD]Coral[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]26-Dec[/TD] [TD]Belgian Juliper[/TD] [TD]Genk[/TD] [TD]Charleroi[/TD] [TD]H(+0)[/TD] [TD]£15.00[/TD] [TD]1.12[/TD] [TD]1.170[/TD] [TD]Coral[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]26-Dec[/TD] [TD]English Premier League[/TD] [TD]Aston Villa[/TD] [TD]Crystal Palace[/TD] [TD]O2.5[/TD] [TD]£5.00[/TD] [TD]1.85[/TD] [TD]2.260[/TD] [TD]Pinnacle[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
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Re: Football forecasting system Its not going well. Thinking of a revamp for the new year. Will keep going until then. Three for tomorrow [TABLE=width: 645]

[TR] [TD]Date[/TD] [TD]Model [/TD] [TD]Home[/TD] [TD]Away[/TD] [TD]Bet[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [TD]Model odds[/TD] [TD]Odds Taken[/TD] [TD]Bookmaker[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]28-Dec[/TD] [TD]English Premier League[/TD] [TD]West Ham[/TD] [TD]West Brom[/TD] [TD]H(+0)[/TD] [TD]£12.00[/TD] [TD]1.60[/TD] [TD]1.73[/TD] [TD]Pinnacle[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]28-Dec[/TD] [TD]English Premier League[/TD] [TD]Cardiff[/TD] [TD]Sunderland[/TD] [TD]H(+0)[/TD] [TD]£11.00[/TD] [TD]1.35[/TD] [TD]1.662[/TD] [TD]Pinnacle[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]28-Dec[/TD] [TD]English Premier League[/TD] [TD] Aston Villa [/TD] [TD]Swansea[/TD] [TD]H(+0)[/TD] [TD]£12.00[/TD] [TD]1.61[/TD] [TD]2.04[/TD] [TD]Pinnacle[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]
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Re: Football forecasting system Not much to report from today other than the more conservative approach i am taking resulted in all returned stakes except the win on 01.5 at Cardiff. Tomorrows selections are Date Model Home Away Bet Stake Model odds Odds Taken Bookmaker 29-Dec English Premier League Chelsea Liverpool H(+0) 12.00 1.220 1.58 Pinnacle 29-Dec English Premier League Everton Southampton H(+0) 12.00 1.200 1.38 Pinnacle 29-Dec English Championship Charlton Sheffield Weds H(+0) 10.00 1.480 1.53 Coral 29-Dec English League 1 Colchester Crewe H(+0) 11.00 1.310 1.538 Pinnacle 29-Dec English League 2 Oxford Scunthorpe H(+0) 7.88 1.580 1.63 Coral 29-Dec Scottish Premier League Partick Motherwell A(+0) 10.00 1.320 1.82 Pinnacle 29-Dec English Premier League Everton Southampton O2.5 5.00 1.830 1.909 Pinnacle 29-Dec English Premier League Tottenham Stoke O2.5 5.00 1.810 1.893 Pinnacle 29-Dec Scottish Premier League Inverness C Celtic O2.5 5.00 1.890 1.893 Pinnacle

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Re: Football forecasting system After £3000 bet and 300 bets this thread has resulted in a -2% ROI. I have decided to stop here and put into practice a new strategy that i will start in the new year. There are numerous reasons to stop here but the main reasons are New strategy will be so much different from the old I now have asian handicap and over/under models I now cover 12 leagues which is double where i started this thread. Will start a new thread soon with hopefully a better system

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