Jump Racing ~ Monday 25th Feb

[BillyHills]

210 Plumpton: Little Dutch Girl 11/2 SJ Interesting opening novice hurdle and more competitive than the betting may suggest with Leviathan very short in the market. He has fair form and no doubt the betting is going on his last run in a fair race where he led to the run in, however there are one or two rivals here that represent much better value in my eyes and dont have to find too much on the book. Asker goes for the local trainer Gary Moore, his second here to Valdez reads well enough and is improving over hurdles while Shuh Shuh Gah has an outside chance of getting involved too. My selection is the filly Little Dutch Girl who is in receipt of over a stone due to the age and sex allowances on offer and looks to have found a good opportunity. She ran well first time out when third to Calculated Risk at Doncaster and then didn't get on with the blinkers at Ludlow when third again, that form isn't as bad as it looked at the time with winner well regarded and looks terrific value at 11/2 on these terms.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Jump Racing ~ Monday 25th Feb 2.10 Plumpton - 1pt win Ourmanmassini @ 8/1 (Bet365) Leviathan's latest run sets the standard but I'm not particularly keen on horses who don't see their races out brilliantly over hurdles and I don't think he's worthy of a bet at 5/4. That came in a small field last time when given a good ride and considering his all time strike rate of 3-29 and the furthest he's won over is a mile on the flat makes him vulnerable at the finish in my opinion. There are a few who could put it down to him but Suzy Smith's runner makes most interest to me as he's a bumper winner and ran pretty well here on hurdling debut last time out. Obviously should improve for the experience but it was a hot race with Mr Watson 1st and the runner-up looking smart as well (franked form next time) and my selection wasn't beaten far by those behind the main two (and a respectable 16l defeat to the classy winner). He made a mistake at the last which cost him a length or two as well and I don't think the ground was ideal, either. Dr Massini's have a better record on better ground and this horse has an action which suggests that the better ground on offer this afternoon will help. Any improvement on his hurdling debut (and I see a few reasons why this is likely) should see him competitive here and I'd sooner back at 8/1 than the favourite at 5/4.