RedSaddler92 Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Evening. After starting and failing with a GH thread through last week I decided to go away and compile some research in the football betting area. Having been un-sure on what exactly to 'search' for or 'trial' to see if I could find a reliable source of betting income I feel back to the ever reliable Bet365, the best and most in depth betting website. For months and months know, I've had the odd couple of quid on random 10-14 folds on the 'Odds on Coupon'. One thing I always found during that period was just how unreliable and unpredictable 'odds on' games actually were. This weekend I decided to take matters into my own hands and set a spreadsheet up (that I know realise I can't post in this thread, which is very frustrating) listing 200 randomly seleceted matches from the Odds on Coupon and logging, Odds, half time score, full time score and whether the favourite actually won or not. In all honesty, I didn't find out much that I already didn't know, however I did find a reasonable way of making money, providing I used Betfair (so I can cash out) and providing I use a well thought out system of placing 1 bet with a high stake and withdrawing any winnings, before starting placing a new bet. I know, I know your thinking this looks like a load of old waffle. Let me show you my results. Below is the outcome for the favourite in the match. [TABLE=width: 995] [TR] [TD]Total Table[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Results[/TD] [TD]Won[/TD] [TD]Lost[/TD] [TD]Drew[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]200[/TD] [TD]126[/TD] [TD]32[/TD] [TD]24[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] (18 games were Postponed, or results weren't in on Soccerway yet) During this period, one thing became immediately established. When there is a favourite in a particular game, there is rarely a game that finishes 0-0. Precisely 4 games in the 182 results that I logged finished 0-0 and 2 of thoose 3 came in 1 particular division. The Idea? 4 games in 182 isn't a particularly high level of reliabilty when it comes to large stake betting, however the plan I have is potentially a solid way of earning a small, but solid and frequent income before withdrawing it. For example, I start with a £100 bank and I lay £100 on a game finishing 0-0 at odds of 10. The game finished 3-1 and the bet wins, returning £10. I then withdraw this £10, leaving the £100 bank to place my next bet with. You can get 45.5 into 182 four times, which according to my trials means I'd have lost one bet every 45 games. You see where Im coming from? The chances are, by the time you find yourself a 0-0 game the chances are you will have earnt more than your loss. You also have to remember, using Betfair there is less 'Odds on' games because they have less games than bet365 to choose from and bet on. This wont be the only bets I try and do in this thread, but I think it's certainly a good basis to have a look at and continue to try and test myself. Let's lay down the rules. - 1 bet 1 withdraw - Laying 0-0 in games with an obvious favourite involved - Any bet's go (as I wont restrict myself to just this system) - The cash out/trading system is acceptable to use at all times Aim? - Double my start bank (in withdrawals) before having to deposit any more money. In other words - I start with £100 bank, I want to have withdrawn at least my starting bank, before having to deposit anymore money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSaddler92 Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 Re: Football Lays - 1 bet, 1 withdraw Bank - £40.55 Bet 1. FC Vaslui 0-0 CRF Cluj at Half Time. Cluj down to 9 men. Placed (matched) [TABLE=class: lay, width: 316] [TR] [TH=class: runner]Lay (Bet Against)[/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center]Backer's odds[/TH] [TH=class: stake, align: center]Backer's stake[/TH] [TH=class: profit, align: right]Your liability[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: event-name] [TH=colspan: 4]FC Vaslui v CFR Cluj (In-Play)[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: bet open, bgcolor: #F3DCE2] [TH=class: runner]0 - 0 Correct Score[/TH] [TD=class: odds, align: center] 6.8 [/TD] [TD=class: stake-cell, align: center]£6.99[/TD] [TD=class: profit, align: right]£40.54[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Bank £0.01. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSaddler92 Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 Re: Football Lays - 1 bet, 1 withdraw Horrendous start. 0-0 after 79 minutes so I've cashed out £24.06. Bank - £24.07 Loss - £16.48 Bet 1 - Lost. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSaddler92 Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 Re: Football Lays - 1 bet, 1 withdraw Bet 2. St Patricks 1-1 Bangor Celtic 30 minutes gone in-play. Placed (matched) [TABLE=class: lay, width: 316] [TR] [TH=class: runner]Lay (Bet Against)[/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center]Backer's odds[/TH] [TH=class: stake, align: center]Backer's stake[/TH] [TH=class: profit, align: right]Your liability[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: event-name] [TH=colspan: 4]St Patricks v Bangor Celtic (IRE) (In-Play)[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: bet open, bgcolor: #F3DCE2] [TH=class: runner]2 - 1 Correct Score[/TH] [TD=class: odds, align: center] 6.2 [/TD] [TD=class: stake-cell, align: center]£4.62[/TD] [TD=class: profit, align: right]£24.02[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: meta, bgcolor: #F3DCE2] [TD=colspan: 4]Bet Ref: 25435808648M Bet matched: 20:17 25-Feb-13 (UTC)[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSaddler92 Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 Re: Football Lays - 1 bet, 1 withdraw What a shocker so far, cashed out on another big loss at 2-1 with 79 minutes gone in that game, que a 84th minute 3rd for St Patricks. Bank - £14.93 Bet 3 - LOST Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSaddler92 Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 Re: Football Lays - 1 bet, 1 withdraw Bet 3. Huracan 0-0 Rosario Central - 35 minutes gone. Placed (matched) [TABLE=class: lay, width: 316] [TR] [TH=class: runner]Lay (Bet Against)[/TH] [TH=class: odds, align: center]Backer's odds[/TH] [TH=class: stake, align: center]Backer's stake[/TH] [TH=class: profit, align: right]Your liability[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: event-name] [TH=colspan: 4]Huracan v Rosario (In-Play)[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: bet open, bgcolor: #F3DCE2] [TH=class: runner]The Draw Match Odds[/TH] [TD=class: odds, align: center] 2.92 [/TD] [TD=class: stake-cell, align: center]£7.77[/TD] [TD=class: profit, align: right]£14.92[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: meta, bgcolor: #F3DCE2] [TD=colspan: 4]Bet Ref: 25437768340M Bet matched: 21:31 25-Feb-13 (UTC)[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSaddler92 Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 Re: Football Lays - 1 bet, 1 withdraw This thread is again a mess, one thing I've realised is. I need a higher bank for that to work. I'll be back when I can start with a £100 bank. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skittle Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Re: Football Lays - 1 bet, 1 withdraw I can't disagree. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSaddler92 Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 Re: Football Lays - 1 bet, 1 withdraw I'll be back when I have £100 bank. The layout and the rest was perfect, before the bets started! It's hard using betfair, as 365 have so many more games per day to choose from. I think bet365 need to start using an exchange system. I've won £290 on the Spurs game tonight, so ill probably put across 100 tommorrow. I did NOT spend 10+ hours arranging a spreadsheet and spend 20 minutes typing out a tidy original post and plan for absolutely no reason. If the £100 bank goes bang, then we'l know. That I've failed that system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smithy90 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Re: Football Lays - 1 bet, 1 withdraw Congratulations on your £290 win but dont mention your winnings on here after a game, trust me itl get a lot of people on your back :lol As for your system youve just started off with the worst luck but to be honest all of them picks so far have been too risky if you want to go far with a successful system, bet 3 for example was heavy favourites to be under 2.5 goals and although you might get away with a 1-0 i wouldnt be suprised if it ended goalless either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smithy90 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Re: Football Lays - 1 bet, 1 withdraw You got your luck back, 84th minute goal. Hopefully you can hit a decent run now with the £20 remaining Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skittle Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Re: Football Lays - 1 bet, 1 withdraw Smithy is bang on the money with the winning comment. Some people might see it as a form of after timing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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