frenchypauly Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Champions League 12/13 Outright Winners [TABLE=class: grid, width: 500] [TR] [TD]Team[/TD] [TD]Odds[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [TD]Profit[/TD] [TD]Net [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Man United[/TD] [TD]8.00[/TD] [TD]100[/TD] [TD]700[/TD] [TD]600 (700-100)[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Real Madrid[/TD] [TD]5.50[/TD] [TD]100[/TD] [TD]450[/TD] [TD]350 (450-100)[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] [TABLE=class: grid, width: 500] [TR] [TD]Team[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [TD]Profit[/TD] [TD]Net [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Man United[/TD] [TD]1.11[/TD] [TD]720.72[/TD] [TD]79.28[/TD] [TD]-120.72 (79.28-200)[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Real Madrid[/TD] [TD]1.17[/TD] [TD]470.09[/TD] [TD]79.91[/TD] [TD]-120.08 (79.91-200)[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] *Important notice, when I say Lay, I mean laying at betfair, but rather than quoting lay odds, i quote the equivalent back odds. As things stand there is no arb. But the second leg gets played and 1 of these team goes through to the quarter final, and that will have their Outright winner odds shortened. Especially with Barcelona looking like they going out. So lets anticipate what the lay odds would become after the second leg. [TABLE=class: grid, width: 500] [TR] [TD]Team[/TD] [TD]Lay[/TD] [TD]Stake[/TD] [TD]Profit[/TD] [TD]Net[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Man United[/TD] [TD]1.38[/TD] [TD]581.33[/TD] [TD]220.90[/TD] [TD]20.90 (220.90-200)[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Real Madrid[/TD] [TD]1.65[/TD] [TD]333.00[/TD] [TD]216.45[/TD] [TD]16.45 (216.45-200)[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] So if you back real madrid and man united now, You can lay the team that goes through to the next round. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Re: Anticipating an arbitrage opportunity. Nice idea! :) Though, how accurate are your anticipated lay odds after second leg? Everything depends on that! I see you expect Man Utd will be available to lay at 3.63, and Real Madrid at 2.54; limit odds to make profit is 4.00 for Man Utd and 2.75 for Real Madrid; if lay odds appear to be above, you will not make profit. If of any help, I've just noticed back odds are higher than you quoted - Man Utd is available to back at 9.0 at the moment, and Real Madrid at 5.9, which allows you more room for error in anticipated odds - up to 4.5 for Man Utd and 2.95 for Real M. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frenchypauly Posted February 21, 2013 Author Share Posted February 21, 2013 Re: Anticipating an arbitrage opportunity. Well if Man United go through. And barca goes out, then man u will be 2nd favourite after Bayern. Same with real going through. But a lot depends on barca 2nd leg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted April 3, 2013 Share Posted April 3, 2013 Re: Anticipating an arbitrage opportunity. I've just remembered this thread, and checked odds; indeed, you were right, Real Madrid was set as 2nd favourite, but its odds have never dropped below 3.10, not enough for you to make profit this way... Have you tried some other matches from QF now? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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