jump racing saturday 16/2/2013

[beaker1]

1:30 Ascot – Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle At Huntingdon SAUSALITO SUNRISE made his racecourse debut and I must admit he really stood out in the parade ring, I will go as far to say he is one of the best horses that I have ever seen on looks. He ran a fair race that day, finishing second in a bumper and he is certainly on my list of horses to follow. On his next start he was subject of a gamble at Ludlow (backed from 6/1 to 10/3) and looked to have the race easily won when jumping the last clear of the pack, only to be caught on the line. He finished well clear of the pack however and the Hobbs team was not in great form at the time, so now with the stable in better form and with that experience behind him, I expect him to run very well. The slight drop in trip should also help and although he faces a couple of decent horses, I can see him improving past them and winning. 2:05 Ascot – Sodexo Prestige Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase ROCKY CREEK is proving to be a very good recruit to chasing and is strongly fancied to win. He showed plenty of promise on his debut, when it was only the fact that he needed the run that cost him victory against Harry Topper, who looks a top class horse in the making. He then made the decent Molotof look ordinary at Doncaster and that form has been franked by an easy win for Molotof at Warwick last week. His final start was at Warwick and he jumped and travelled well throughout, eventually pulling clear of a decent field to win by 15 lengths. Tour Des Champs fell that day when still going well and is clearly a danger on six pounds better terms, but I have total confidence in this horse and I don’t think we have seen his full potential yet. The ground and track should be ideal for him and I expect him to win. 2:35 Gowran Park – Shantou at Burgage Stud Maiden Hurdle DJAKADAM was very unlucky last time out as he was well clear when stumbling at the final hurdle at Thurles. He had looked very promising up to that point, jumping and travelling well and is confidently selected to gain compensation here. That run was on heavy ground and his only start in France was also on heavy, so the ground should be fine and with the Mullins team in such good form, it will take a good one to beat him. The winner at Thurles has run well in a handicap subsequently and with Djakadam still holding an entry in the Triumph Hurdle, I am sure connections are fully expecting victory. 2:55 haydock park - Betfred Grand National Trial (Grade 3) As Silver By Nature is the only winner of this race in the last decade to have finished outside the first three on his most recent start, it seems best to side with runners arriving here in form. This spells trouble for the likes of Giles Cross, Lackamon, Lively Barrow and the afore mentioned Silver By Nature who all arrive here having finished outside the placings last time. It therefore seems imperative to side with a horse heading the right way rather than one looking to bounce back to form. This level at which previous performances have come is also vitally important with eight of the last ten winners having recorded a victory in Class 2 company or higher prior to contesting this Grade 3 event. Lackamon, Viking Blond, Well Refreshed, Trigger The Light and Mac Aeda all fail to make the cut in this years field and will be looking to emulate both Giles Cross and Silver By Nature who both bucked this trend when winning their respective renewals. In terms of official ratings, the benchmark for this contest looks to be set at 135 with eight of the ten most recent winners having achieved this mark or higher before coming here. This is perhaps surprising given the extra weight these horses had to carry in conditions which are often on the testing side. This narrows the field to five with Monbeg Dude, Giles Cross, Cannington Brook, Teaforthree and top-weight Silver By Nature all making the grade in this year’s renewal. Having briefly alluded to the stamina-sapping conditions that participants often encounter, it is essential that potential winners of the race have the necessary stamina. This is supported by the fact that nine of the last ten winners had all recorded previous victories over three miles or further. However with this year’s entire field fitting the bill, we will need to use other factors in order to find the likely winner. It could be said that the attribute which is taken for granted most often in National Hunt racing is the ability of a horse to jump the obstacles in front of it, which is especially important over longer distances where horses can get very tired and lose concentration. This can be quantified by noting that of the last ten winners; eight of them had fallen or unseated no more than twice during their careers. This is bad news for supporters of Silver By Nature, Rigadin De Beauchene and Triggerman who all have three failures to their names on their respective race records. With no single age-group appearing to dominate this race you would be forgiven for thinking that there isn’t much of a trend in this department. However, with seven of the last ten winners younger than ten it may still be worthy of some consideration. In fact, a horse aged less than ten has won twenty of the last thirty renewals of this race since 1980 and although Giles Cross, Rambling Minster and Forest Gunner have all defied the trend it still looks to be worth following those towards the younger end of the age spectrum. Trigger The Light, Silver By Nature, Giles Cross, Triggerman and Neptune Equester can all be considered the elder statesman of this race and will hope that there is life in the old legs yet. The final factor worthy of mention is that eight of the last ten winners had run within the last sixty days prior to winning here. Lackamon and Trigger The Light have both had 84 days since they ran on the same card at Haydock in November whereas Silver By Nature will be attempting to return from a mammoth 679 day absence having not been seen in public since finishing well behind Ballabriggs in the Grand National nearly two years ago. This trend would suggest that race fitness is very important when looking for selections and given the strength of this trend, we should probably be looking elsewhere for selections. Shortlist MONBEG DUDE Teaforthree Cannington Brook Conclusion Cannington Brook represents the Colin Tizzard yard and comes here on the back of a decent runner-up effort behind Carruthers at Ffos Las and prior to that his victory over Merry King by the narrowest margins marked him as a horse heading the right way. He likes running at Haydock having recorded three of his four victories here and looks well placed to put in another solid effort this time. Teaforthree marked himself as a stayer of some ability when winning the 4m Amateur Riders’ Chase at last year’s Cheltenham festival and following a disappointing run on his reappearance, a sixth placed finish in the Hennessy and a gutsy second in the Welsh National has done nothing but support that opinion. He appears to relish the challenge of jumping fences and was staying on at the end of 3m6f last time, so the trip should pose no problems. He comes here with a big chance and looks set for another bold showing on Saturday. The marginal preference is for the only horse that finished ahead of Teaforthree in the Welsh National, MONBEG DUDE. In fact this wasn’t the only time he had finished ahead of Rebecca Curtis’ nine-year-old having won the Henrietta Knight Chase atCheltenham in November. His jumping has been known to cause him problems but it is worth noting that he has only unseated or fallen once in six attempts over fences. His rival Teaforthree has to give him 3lb less than he did at Chepstow but I don’t really see this making too much of a difference and I fancy Michael Scudamore’s eight-year-old to continue on his progressive upward curve. 3:10 Gowran Park – Red Mills Trial Hurdle ZAIDPOUR has an excellent record going right handed at distances shy of three miles and also has a record of 112 at Gowran Park. Heavy ground suits him just fine and although he concedes weight all round, is confidently expected to win again with his stable in such good form. He was a very easy winner of this race last year and ran Hurricane Fly to 2 ½ lengths at Punchestown on heavy ground, so it will take a below par run for him to be beaten. That is unlikely however as on his last ten starts, he has run to a rating of at least 152 and if you combine all the runs over hurdles by his rivals, on only two occasions has one achieved a rating of 152 or more. He looks banker material. 3:50 Ascot – Betfair Ascot Chase The ground is likely to be very testing for this and I can see some horses finishing very tired. Finian’s Rainbow is clearly a classy horse, but he is not suited by heavy ground and there must also be some stamina doubts, so he is not for me in this. Captain Chris won well on heavy ground at Ascot earlier in the season and after his fine second in the King George, I can see why he is favourite, but he had a very hard race that day and I am not convinced that he will repeat the level of that form. Cue Card made a mistake early on in the King George and as a result ran too free and did not get home. He had looked very good prior to that however and I can see him running a big race over this trip. The one I really like though is SOMERSBY. He has a great record on right-handed tracks, handles soft ground well and looks as though this trip should suit. He is a classy horse and ran well behind Master Minded here in 2011 and I was impressed by him last time out behind Sprinter Sacre. He ran well for a long way that day and should improve for the run. I expect him to be spot on for this and on a track that suits him, I fancy him to win.

[BillyHills]

Re: jump racing saturday 16/2/2013

2.20 Haydock Park: The Rendlesham Hurdle (Grade 2) (3m) Interesting renewal of the Rendlesham and it should really concern the front two in the betting. Trustan Times will be a popular choice but would be more of interest on better ground; he didn’t seem to pick up at Ascot when encountering similar ground. Kentford Grey Lady has the beating of her rival on these terms on collateral form behind Reve De Sivola and she ran really well in heavy ground at Cheltenham, this sharper track will suit her too as long as there is some pace in the race and maybe Cross Kennon will ensure that. Selection; 3pts Kentford Grey Lady 2/1

Stan James

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[Stevet1859]

Re: jump racing saturday 16/2/2013 2:20 Haydock: Across The Bay 1pt win 10/1 Stan James Across The Bay started the season off over fences in fine form, winning at Kelso and Carlisle before putting up a decent effort behind Wayward Prince at Aintree. Top weight in the Welsh National on heavy was a bridge too far and he reverts to hurdles today. Across The Bay has run well as anyone when he came up against Big Bucks in the past and as he is not in the line up today, Across The Bay looks to have a better chance than his odds suggest. 2:55 Haydock: Well Refreshed 1pt win 10/1 Bet365* & Silver By Nature 1pt win 22/1 Stan James Well Refreshed is lightly raced for a nine year old and he looks to be on an upward curve. He lines up on a hat trick. This distance and going should not be a problem and with the prospect of more improvement to come he should run well. After Well Refreshed's win at Plumpton trainer Gary Moore said that his charge loves the mud and just keeps galloping. With son Joshua taking off three pounds again, Well Refreshed could keep going when others may have had enough. Having won this twice in the past its reasonable to assume that this race has been the target for Silver By Nature by Lucinda Russell, although unfortunately he missed a scheduled prep race. As a result Silver By Nature now has a 679 day absence to overcome, even so, off only a four pound higher mark than his comfortable fifteen length win in 2011 he may be worth chancing, with conditions in his favour and a track he acts well on. * price taken 12/2/13 and posted in personal thread 3:15 Ascot: General Miller 1pt win 13/2 & Hold Court 1pt win 12/1 both Bet Victor General Miller has been off a long while, however if he retains his ability then he is likely to be in the shake up here. He was competitive in Graded races prior to being off and a mark of 139 could see him go close. With the training methods these days, the first run back is often the time to catch a horse that has been off so long. Hold Court was progressing nicely with a brace of wins at Ludlow, before biting off a little too much in the Grade Two at Warwick when taking on The New One, one of this seasons top novices. Hold Court may be the sort that does better in a bigger field handicap with a decent pace. He may have been a little underestimated here and could go well at a double figure price. 3:50 Ascot: Captain Chris 1pt win 11/4 William Hill* Captain Chris would appear to have the two best pieces of form this season on show with his win here in November and close second to Kempton where he was just outstayed in the King George. This looks about his right trip, the underfoot conditions are fine, and this is his favourite way round. With those three factors in his favour, all looks set for a big run. * price taken 12/2/13 and posted in personal thread

[BillyHills]

Re: jump racing saturday 16/2/2013

3.15 Ascot: Betfair Don’t Settle For Less Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) (2m3f110y) Quite a competitive race with a few doubts about the likes of General Miller and Tango De Juilley on their comeback runs. The favourite seems short enough and last year’s winner Bourne is a lot higher in the weights now. I think Whitby Jack has a chance off a low weight and I do like the novice Hold Court from the Evan Williams yard, he makes his handicap debut and could be well treated. One at a price that could show up is Saddlers Risk; despite top weight he certainly has the ability to figure in this grade of race. Selections: 2pts Whitby Jack 7/1

Blue Square 1pt EW Hold Court 12/1 Stan James

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[BillyHills]

Re: jump racing saturday 16/2/2013

3.25 Haydock: Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) (3m) Intriguing little race and you cant count any of the five runners completely out although Loose Performer may be using this as a confidence booster on his comeback. Creepy ran with promise on his debut but needs to back that up while Ardkilly Witness had a hard race just ten days ago at Carlisle. This leaves the two principles and Shotgun Paddy has a decent weight pull for his one length defeat to Two Rockers and should gain revenge, he also ran a blinder at Chepstow last time and looks to have improved. Selection;

2pts Shotgun Paddy 9/4

William Hill

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[StuSimmy]

Re: jump racing saturday 16/2/2013 17:00 Ascot I liked the manner in which Captain Cutter won in on his racecourse debut in a class 1 listed race over today's course and distance back in December last year. He beat a well fancied runner in Kings Palace from the David Pipe yard that day and although the form of that race hasn't worked out well since, I feel this horse is a good thing. He has another fancied David Pipe horse to contend with today in Red Sherlock and although that horse ran out a wide margin winner (23L) on debut, that was in a race much further down in class than Captain Cutter's win as it was in a class 6 race. I find it interesting how AP only has the two rides at Ascot tomorrow and the fact he is hanging around to ride this horse suggests to me that he's not hanging around for nothing. He's been riding winners for fun in the McManus colours as of late and he has a great chance of adding to that tally with this horse here today. 5pt win Captain Cutter @ 13/8 (Bet365 - BOG)

[cpo]

Re: jump racing saturday 16/2/2013 2.55 Haydock Viking Blond 1pt EW @ 16/1 Bet365 Viking Blond hasn’t won since 2011 but he has returned to action this season in good form if you take his run in the Welsh National out. He finished a good 2^nd on his reappearance at Cheltenham before finishing 3^rd to Monbeg Dude at the same track over this trip. He then ran very poorly at Chepstow but followed that with a solid 2^nd at Sandown last time out. His run at Sandown was arguably better than his 8 length defeat would suggest as he went off far too quickly with Mister Hyde and while that one dropped away quite quickly, Viking Blond kept on galloping to just get 2^nd. His 3^rd at Cheltenham to Monbeg Dude is his best recent bit of form as he was rated 11lb higher in that race and finished under 3 lengths behind the winner. For this race tomorrow Monbeg Dude is rated 6lbs higher than my selection so there is a 17lb swing in the weights. Add to that the fact Adam Wedge takes off another 3lbs, which means there is a pretty hefty swing in the weights. NTD doesn’t exactly have the greatest of records at the track and his runners are a bit in and out at the moment but I fancy Viking Blond to run a solid race tomorrow. Trip and ground are fine and he is far too tempting off 132 in a race where conditions will suit. Some of his rivals do come into the race in excellent form but I believe Viking Blond is in good heart and can make hi presence felt. 2.40 Ascot The Rainbow Hunter 1.5pts EW @ 9/1 Ladbrokes This horse won over CD 2 outings ago off a 5lb lower mark. The form of that race has been franked by the 2^nd and 3^rd who have both won comfortably since. Not every horse goes at Chepstow so I would be willing to forgive his most recent effort there on heavy ground. He is a 9 year old now but there could be more to come from him. Kim Bailey is in fine form at the moment and has a good record here. Jason Maguire has been in good form all season and he too has a solid record at this track. I think at 9/1 he is pretty solid as there are plenty of question marks regarding his opposition tomorrow.

[cpo]

Re: jump racing saturday 16/2/2013 3.15 Ascot Bourne 1.5pts EW @ 12/1 Ladbrokes Bourne won this race last year off 125 so he seemingly has all to do this time around off 140 but he comes into the race in good form. He won a couple of outings ago at Kempton on heavy ground off a mark of 132. He needed the full 2miles to get on top that day and again ran as if a return to this trip would suit when finishing 4^th at Cheltenham behind the progressive Mr Watson. He races off the same mark in this race and I think he could at the very least run into the places. McCain and Maguire continue in good form and the return to this trip is a big positive. Bourne is consistent and will have no problems with the ground. He carry’s plenty of weight in the race tomorrow but I fancy him to run well. The other one I considered in this race is Whitby Jack who won with plenty in hand at Kempton. He has been raised 7lbs for that win but could go in again.

[BillyHills]

Re: jump racing saturday 16/2/2013

2.40 Ascot: Weatherbys Hamilton Insurance Chase (Ltd Handicap) (Class 1)(3m) One or two National hopefuls on show here now the weights are out, Cappa Bleu ran in this last year on the way to finishing fourth at Aintree and could be placed again. Saint Are and Problema Tic will appreciate better ground than this and my two against the field are Tatenen and Vino Griego. The latter waltzed home at Cheltenham last time and a reproduction of that form would probably see him follow up under his 10lb rise in the weights. I thought Tatenen ran well last time and is nicely handicapped nowadays and has course form. Selections: 2pts Tatenen 8/1

>Paddy Power 1pt Vino Griego 9/2 Stan James

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[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: jump racing saturday 16/2/2013 2.40 Ascot - 2pts win Problema Tic @ 9/2 (PP) Vino Griego was impressive last time and must be respected but is up 10lb for that as well as up in trip and his record prior to that win wasn't one to suggest the horse would be running up a sequence any time soon. He was an easy winner, though, and may well follow up, but on balance I think he's worth taking on. I have plenty of reservations about most of these but think Hadden Frost's mount has every chance of landing the spoils. David Pipe has his horses in good nick at the moment and this horse has an impressive strike rate of 7-12 under rules. He won all of his chases bar one last season (narrow victory in small field) and has shown sufficient promise this time around too. He travelled well on his reappearance at Cheltenham when 5th in a race won by Monbeg Dude (franked form since) but ended up a bit tired. However, those towards the fore on that occasion were very strong stayers and it probably took some getting. Was a good effort for his first run back and can be excused for falling on his first try over the national fences in the Becher Chase last time. He did get to the business end and was in contention when coming down but will come on for that experience considering his relative immaturity going into the test. The conditions here appear prime and he's only 5lbs higher than for a 2 1/4l success on his final start of last season. Seems pretty nailed on to run his race and I fancy that to be sufficient. 3.15 Ascot - 1pt win Lord of House @ 14/1 (Bet365) Charlie Mann's horse may scream out 'caught by the handicapper' having been slammed for slamming his rivals at Sandown two starts back but ran well enough at Cheltenham to be of interest again here (dropped 2lbs for that run). The form of his Folkestone novice success (looking vulnerable before staying on powerfully to assert) is strong and his effort suggested that he was more stayer than speedster (over 2 miles at least) and this 2m4f trip should be within his compass. The runner-up in that race is now rated 126 having won next time and the 3rd now rated 130 (won next two races) so it may well be that a mark of 131 isn't restrictive after all. He was very impressive to scoot home by 10l at Sandown - quickly putting the race to bed and may have been flattered by others tiring but that only suggests that this step up in trip would help and he was plugging on better than most at Cheltenham last time when 6th of 15. This is an easier race I think on easier ground so the test should be okay and he seems surely better going right-handed (all 3 career wins have come going this way). He jumps right at times and was also bumped at a crucial stage at Cheltenham (didn't make any real difference, however). He's more likely to be a 130s horse around Ascot than Cheltenham anyway and he showed too much ability at Sandown to write him off just yet off such a mark.

[bowles10]

Re: jump racing saturday 16/2/2013 2.55 Haydock 3m 4f 110yrds >Betfred Grand National trial Handicap Chase (grade 3) (5yo plus) The key stats we are looking at here in the last 14 runnings are: 14/15 - SP 14/1 or under 15/15 - Horses have had 10 or more runs 15/15 - Horses have had 2 or more wins Going further, the age range appears to be 7-9yo with 11 out of 15 coming from this range. Weight shows that with 10 out of 15 weighing less than 10st 11lb that this could be quite grueling but some decent stayers have carried big weights to victory also. The next set of stats will start cutting the field down: 14/15 - Ran LTO between Nov - Feb 13/15 - Wins / Runs ratio higher than 25% 13/15 - Placed or better LTO Remove Silver by nature, Cannington brook, Giles Cross, Lackamon, Neptune Equestor, Viking blond Rigadin de Beauchene, Lively baron, Trigger the light, Triggerman, Mac aeda & the favs stat is 2 from 15, after last years >Victor but still a poor record. Leaves the following Teaforthree 11st 11lb, 9yo, jockey not ridden horse before, never ran here before Monbeg Dude 10st 12lb, 8yo, never raced here before, Well refreshed 10st 3lb, 9yo, never raced here before, I managed the winner of this last year and Giles Cross came from its 2nd in the Welsh NAtional to win this. The 1st 3 home in the WQelsh NAtional all line up here and i hgave the 1-2. Teaforthree beaten 0.75l that day by Monbeg dude and theres a 3lb pull in Teaforthrees favour. Well Refreshed is going up the weights too quickly and this could be just too high a mark. CAnnington Brook is a course specialist and O'Bien gets on really well with the horse My final 3 are Teaforthree 10pts win 11/2 >Paddy Power Monbeg dude 10pts win 13/2 Stan James Cannington Brook due to its superior course form 10pts win 9/1 >Paddy Power

[mowgli77]

Re: jump racing saturday 16/2/2013 Haydock 2.55pm I fancy Rigadin De Beauchene to run a big race here today and it gives much less weight away to Well Refreshed than previously. Lively Baron is one that can run well at a big price and is only 3lb above his last winning mark. Preview below: http://www.punterslounge.com/haydock-betting-rigadin-de-beauchene-taken-to-land-the-grand-national-trial-in-the-mud Selections: 2pts WIN – Rigadin De Beauchene 6-1 Stan James 0.5pt EW – Lively Baron 33-1 Betfred

[mowgli77]

Re: jump racing saturday 16/2/2013 Ascot 3.50pm I am expecting a big run from Finian's Rainbow here and feel him and Captain Chris are the best 2 grade 1 chasers in the race. Never been a fan of Cue Card but he will be better at this trip and didn't stay 3m. Hoping the ground isn't too soft and expected Finian's to be favourite. Preview below: http://www.punterslounge.com/ascot-betting-finian-s-rainbow-could-find-the-pot-of-gold-if-conditions-are-not-too-testing Selections: 2pts WIN – Finian’s Rainbow 7-2 Coral (BOG) 0.5pt WIN – Finian’s Rainbow to win Ryanair Chase 7-1 William Hill (Ante Post)

[mowgli77]

Re: jump racing saturday 16/2/2013 Ascot 2.05pm Not a huge fan of odds on chances but really can't see Rocky Creek getting beaten here when you weigh up the poor form of his rivals. Not sure what Cheltenham race he'll go for so no ante post tip to go with it but expect it to win easily enough today. Preview below: http://www.punterslounge.com/ascot-betting-rocky-creek-should-prove-too-good-again-in-grade-2-chase Selection: 3pts WIN – Rocky Creek 5-6 PaddyPower (BOG)

[bowles10]

Re: jump racing saturday 16/2/2013 2.05 I managed to pick up a free bet on this race thanks to Bet365 last weekend C4 4/1+ winner bonus so had a look and thought its going on the favourite then started to look around the field a bit just in case. Having read NTD's blog his best chance today is Tour Des Champs who fell when challenging Rocky Creek in RC's last race. TDC has since won in easy fashion on heavy ground. The support behind RC seems to revolve aruond the fact exciting novice Harry Topper beat it. The venetia trained horse Houblon Des Obeaux also has a squeak and has earn't its rating. i would be surprised if this is a walk in the park for RC and the price is poor value. 6/1 on TDC is my bet Tour Des Champs 6/1 Bet365

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: jump racing saturday 16/2/2013 2.40 Ascot - 2pts win Saint Are @ 7/1 (Bet365) I still feel this is a race which can be taken advantage of as I still have reservations over the majority of the field. This horse has his own issues such as his jumping can come under scrutiny and he prefers good ground but the ground is drying at Ascot and won't be as soft as when running a decent race at Cheltenham last time out. He fell at the 5th flight in the Hennessy on his seasonal return so may not have been fully wound up for his run at Cheltenham and subsequently could come on a fair bit for that. He won his final start of last season at Aintree so has appeared in good form of late and he goes best on flatter tracks so the return here from Cheltenham looks another bonus. He looks the main threat to the favourite in my eyes now and as said before, that horse is worth taking on considering his profile.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: jump racing saturday 16/2/2013 3.50 Ascot - 2pts win Captain Chris @ 3/1 (Hills) The price has just edged out to the magic 3/1 mark for me and I'm happy to side with Philip Hobbs' runner at such a price. This is a high-class race and he brings top notch form to the table having just been nailed in the King George last time out. He stays better than his main rivals here who may not want a soft-ground slog over 2m5f and that could play into the hands of this horse who appears back to his best this season. Is a better horse going right-handed with his record at such venues being strong, and looked the winner last time before being just outstayed up the run-in. Proved he could handle testing conditions that day as well and this track over this trip looks ideal. Finians Rainbow can put in a bad jump occasionally and him and Cue Card may prove more of a threat on better ground when their speed is more important than their stamina. Captain Chris looks the percentage call to me as he is proven over the conditions and comes here in excellent heart.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: jump racing saturday 16/2/2013 4.15 Wincanton - 2pts win Jumps Road @ 9/2 (PP) This is the first time that Colin Tizzard's charge has run over 2m over hurdles since winning a novice event back in December 2011 and considering I think these are probably his ideal conditions he could take some beating today. He never looked a natural chaser, throwing away his chance by several mistakes during his races and the return to hurdling last time was a very welcome move. He's obviously got an engine and travelled well back over the smaller obstacles last time out at Ffos Las. He only weakened late on to be beaten 10 1/2l in a decent race and just shaped as if a non-stayer in the end. Should relish the drop back to two miles, testing ground suits fine and his mark looks perfectly fair. Think he'll go close.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: jump racing saturday 16/2/2013 3.15 ASCOT ~THE COCKNEY MACKEM 25/1 E/W BET 365~Could surprise at a big price now back over the smaller fences ran well last year without winning over chases a live outsider who is overpriced in this imo. 2.40 ASCOT~ MAJOR MALARKEY 12/1 E/W BET 365~ I think this horse will enjoy being back over 3miles has a good record over it the NTD yard could have a big day with there 4 runners here and 2 at Haydock. 2.55 HAYDOCK~ 0.5 E/W TIGGERMAN BET365 14/1 This horse ran really well in the Welsh National unfancied at went off at odds of 50/1 tiring late on finished 3rd beaten 11 1/2L a real sound effort drops 2lb and shrewd trainer puts a decent 3lb claimer on this is a good race & tough race but imo looks to have an outstanding e/w claims and at 14's is overprice and i think will go off much shorter.

[smith17]

Re: jump racing saturday 16/2/2013 14.30 Wincanton: Buck Magic, 9/2 Bet365, win Buck Magic finished third lto in the listed Lanzarote handicap, 4L behind Oscara Dara. He steps back up in trip to 22f which should suit as he won very impressively on his first start over hurdles over this distance. He also won at Cheltenham over 21f two runs ago with today's jockey in the saddle. He is tried in blinkers for the first time and this is just his seventh start over hurdles so there should continue on an upward curve. Trainer Neil Mulholland trained the winner of the first today. Jockey Michael Byrne claims a valuable three pounds. 14.40 Ascot: The Rainbow Hunter, 13/2 Bet365, win The Rainbow Hunter was pulled up lto in very testing ground at Chepstow. Before that he won over c&d on similar ground to what he gets today. The re-opposing Brackloon High fell at the first in that race. Second that day won nto with third and fourth also winning since. Trainer Kim Burke has a great record at Ascot, with a 27% SR for a £22.38 lsp. He is also in good form, with 2 winners and 3 places from 10 runners this month. Jason Maguire is in the saddle. He has a good record here, with 3 winners from 12 rides.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: jump racing saturday 16/2/2013

2:20 Haydock: Across The Bay 1pt win 10/1 Stan James Across The Bay started the season off over fences in fine form, winning at Kelso and Carlisle before putting up a decent effort behind Wayward Prince at Aintree. Top weight in the Welsh National on heavy was a bridge too far and he reverts to hurdles today. Across The Bay has run well as anyone when he came up against Big Bucks in the past and as he is not in the line up today, Across The Bay looks to have a better chance than his odds suggest.

Crackerjack yet again Steve:notworthy

[smith17]

Re: jump racing saturday 16/2/2013 14.55 Haydock: Rigadin De Beauchene, 13/2 Bet365, win Rigadin De Beauchene won lto over 29f at Wincanton on soft ground. Second that day won nto. He placed in the three runs before that over shorter distances and the step up in trip brought about a big improvement. He was raised nine pounds for that win but he is unexposed over this sort of trip and he should go close today. Trainer Venetia Williams is in decent form with 7 winners from 36 runners this month. Three pound claimer Robbie Dunne is in the saddle.

[smith17]

Re: jump racing saturday 16/2/2013 15.15 Ascot: Queens Grove, 12/1 Bet365, win Queens Grove has won his last four races, three of those were over today's distance. This is a big step up in class but they have booked Ruby Walsh to ride today so connections must be confident. He won by 10L lto on heavy ground. Trainer Kevin Bishop is having a good season, with a 14% SR and a lsp of £24.92.

[smith17]

Re: jump racing saturday 16/2/2013 15.50 Ascot: Cue Card, 11/4 Bet365, win Cue Card finished fifth in the King George lto when he didn't see out the trip. Before that he won by 26L over 17f at Exeter in a grade 2 handicap. He runs over 21f which will suit. He won over 20f in a novice hurdle back in 2010 and was beaten just a short head by Gold Cup favourite Bob's Worth in a grade 2 novice's chase in 2011. He got within 7L of Sprinter Sacre at the festival last year. His form is top class and now he is back to a trip that will suit he should go close.

[BillyHills]

Re: jump racing saturday 16/2/2013

2:20 Haydock: Across The Bay 1pt win 10/1 Stan James Across The Bay started the season off over fences in fine form, winning at Kelso and Carlisle before putting up a decent effort behind Wayward Prince at Aintree. Top weight in the Welsh National on heavy was a bridge too far and he reverts to hurdles today. Across The Bay has run well as anyone when he came up against Big Bucks in the past and as he is not in the line up today, Across The Bay looks to have a better chance than his odds suggest. 2:55 Haydock: Well Refreshed 1pt win 10/1 Bet365* & Silver By Nature 1pt win 22/1 Stan James Well Refreshed is lightly raced for a nine year old and he looks to be on an upward curve. He lines up on a hat trick. This distance and going should not be a problem and with the prospect of more improvement to come he should run well. After Well Refreshed's win at Plumpton trainer Gary Moore said that his charge loves the mud and just keeps galloping. With son Joshua taking off three pounds again, Well Refreshed could keep going when others may have had enough. Having won this twice in the past its reasonable to assume that this race has been the target for Silver By Nature by Lucinda Russell, although unfortunately he missed a scheduled prep race. As a result Silver By Nature now has a 679 day absence to overcome, even so, off only a four pound higher mark than his comfortable fifteen length win in 2011 he may be worth chancing, with conditions in his favour and a track he acts well on. * price taken 12/2/13 and posted in personal thread

Well done Steve:clap