profitprophet Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Here goes - not posted in years - been busy reading up on what works and what doesn't.Theory suggest that form is broken down into goals scored / conceded plus shotsand shots on target and, to some degree, corners. Using a simple system ofaverages I will be setting out to try and make a small amount every betting dayand building in plenty of redundancy in the chosen betting markets rather thanchasing long odds. Starting off with betting bank of 100 - Lille V Rennes - prediction suggests - slight advantage to Rennes - total goals for game no more than 3 so a bet of -4.5 golas should be very comfortable. The real value bet here is in the corners. Bet365 +8 corners at 1.50 though I would Dutch or have saver bet as well on "8 corners exactly" at 7.5 bet 50 points from bank. So + 7 corners at 1.25 (dutched). Wolfsburg v B Munich - this should be straight forward B. Munich win - probablyto 0 - but analysis suggest it will be low scoring game so 0-1 or0-2. Comfortable bet here would be B. Munich double chance (X/2) paying 1.10 bet 50 points frombank. Though a decent value bet paying 2s on bet365 is B.Munich to score + 6.5 corners in the game since they should be getting looking at 7.67 for this game Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Re: Prediction using SHOTS / SHOTS ON TARGET / CORNERS Good luck with this proposition. However, it is unclear as to what bet you are selecting. For example, for the Wolfsburg game, you select Bayern on double chance with a stake 50 points (i.e 50% of your bank:loon - very courageous/suicidal). But you also suggest Bayern to get more than 6 corners, with no proposed stake. It helps us if you could be a bit more specific. It will also help you in analysing the performance of your "system". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
profitprophet Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 Re: Prediction using SHOTS / SHOTS ON TARGET / CORNERS Thanks for the comment Grex - what I am trying to do isgive an overview of what the old stats are throwing out, since there are plentyof bets to be had. But clearly I'll keep it clearer from now on. Not a badstart - Wolfsburg v B Munich was 0-2 and Lille Rennes was over 8 corners and low scoring game as predicted. The onlynegative was the call on B. Munich corners. Pot stands at 117.5 after day one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
profitprophet Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 Re: Prediction using SHOTS / SHOTS ON TARGET / CORNERS Saturdays Selections - 16.02.13 For those of you still up in Europe - Sydney V Adelaide High scoring game (prediction suggests +3.5 goals with 2-1or 3-1 for Sydney). with Sydney having high edge to win but I will factor in even more safety and take; Asian +1.5 Sydney @ 1.12and bet 50. Chievo v Palermo Prediction is total goals for game 2.33 (low scoring game) – corners 10.08 (Chievo 4.75 / Palermo 5.33) shots on target 9.08. All pointing to a Palermo win ????? (I am little surprised myself but stats are stats) Asian Handicap Palermo +1.5 +2 @1.14 and bet 50 Roma / Juventus Prediction total goals 2.92 (jury’s out on this one )corners 9.42 ( Roma 3.17 Juve 6.25 ) shots on target 10.58 ( Roma 3.83 Juve 6.75 ). Everything says should be Juve win here. However bet I am going for is : Neither team to reach 9 corners on bet 365 @1.28 bet 17.5 units of bank. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrsnoopy Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Re: Prediction using SHOTS / SHOTS ON TARGET / CORNERS With bankroll management like this you will not last till the end of the month, most likely not even a week ( the degenerate force is strong in this one!) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
profitprophet Posted February 16, 2013 Author Share Posted February 16, 2013 Re: Prediction using SHOTS / SHOTS ON TARGET / CORNERS Yes bank roll will be the issue, but we'll see how far we can go. All in all the results where fairly comfortable yesterday (given the asian handicaps that were taken). Sydney Adelaide 2-1 Cheive Palermo 1-1 Roma Juve - Juve 7 corners - Following yesterdays wins bank roll now stands at 135.4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
profitprophet Posted February 16, 2013 Author Share Posted February 16, 2013 Re: Prediction using SHOTS / SHOTS ON TARGET / CORNERS Sat/Sun games Atlas Monterrey / Asian +1.5 Atlas @1.115 bet 50 Australia Brisbane Roar /Asain +0.5+1.0 Brisbane at 1.105 bet 50 should be straight forward win for Brisbane possible to 1-0 or 2-0 Espanyol v Betis / Asian Esapanyol +0.5+1.0 low scoring game and possible draw 1-1 bet 35.4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
profitprophet Posted February 16, 2013 Author Share Posted February 16, 2013 Re: Prediction using SHOTS / SHOTS ON TARGET / CORNERS CORRECTION SHOULD READ Sat/Sun games Atlas Monterrey / Asian +1.5 Atlas @1.115 bet 50 Australia Brisbane Roar /Asain +0.5+1.0 Brisbane at 1.105 bet 50 should be straight forward win for Brisbane possible to 1-0 or 2-0 Sapainf Espanyol v Betis / Asian Esapanyol +0.5+1.0 @ 1.18 bet 34.5 low scoring game and possible draw 1-1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Re: Prediction using SHOTS / SHOTS ON TARGET / CORNERS I like the shots/corners idea. I also agree that suicidal stakes will ultimately result in the premature death of your bank balance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
profitprophet Posted February 17, 2013 Author Share Posted February 17, 2013 Re: Prediction using SHOTS / SHOTS ON TARGET / CORNERS Below are the results from the prediction for theEspanyol v Betis game. I have taken a tough game to predict and trying this out. Everything suggests a home Espanyol win when you look at goal average. But, these teams are so close re the overall stats (below) that a draw is probably the most likely. Take the Asian handicap for Esponyal at +1.5 and theory is it should be a safe bet. But I think it will be a low scoring game – hence my draw 1-1 call. Espanyol Betis Total [TABLE=class: MsoNormalTable, width: 156] [TR] [TD=width: 69] Shots 10.42 [/TD] [TD=width: 69] 13.00 23.42 4.08 8.58 Corners 5.92 5.00 10.92 [/TABLE] Yes stake strategy is suicide for sure – but if the overall objective is to make a guaranteed 10% per day on your pot...well the whole compound growth thing should work really well. My maths, programming skills and lack of data, doesn’t allow me to do a proper back testing, but there may be some merit in this. Time will tell. Anyway, just to update Atlas v Monterrey 2-1 Brisbane v Wellington 2-0 Pot stands at 146.4 Interesting to note that of the 6 correct scores I mentioned on this thread - 3 have come in. Beginner’s luck I know, but maybe there is a correct score bet to follow here as well. See how we go with a 1-1 with Espanyol vBetis tonight. I can but only fail J [/TD] [TD=width: 69] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 69] Shots on target 4.50 [/TD] [TD=width: 69] [/TD] [TD=width: 69] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=width: 69] [/TD] [TD=width: 69] [/TD] [TD=width: 69] [/TD] [/TR] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TZOGAS Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Re: Prediction using SHOTS / SHOTS ON TARGET / CORNERS may i ask you where you can see that statistics?.........and where i can find the progress of the team using graphs...? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
profitprophet Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 Re: Prediction using SHOTS / SHOTS ON TARGET / CORNERS Espanyol Betis was 1-0 so paid @1.18 pot now at 152.61 Corners were 13 but 10.92 were predicted Shots on target 7 (Espanyol 4 betis 3 ) and 8.58 were predicted Shots 11 ( 6 v 5 ) way off here since 20+ were predicted. I am getting the stats from www.football-data.co.uk But the predictions are something I have put together using a little bit of low level maths. Couple of hard games tonight which I will post stuff later on. Nearly got the 1-1. Everything indicated it was going to be a low scoring game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Re: Prediction using SHOTS / SHOTS ON TARGET / CORNERS Espanyol Betis was 1-0 so paid @1.18 What was the bet? It wasn't clear to me from your earlier post. Was is Espanyol +1.5? You mentioned that, but you didn't quote the odds or bookmaker - can you please do that for future bets? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
profitprophet Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 Re: Prediction using SHOTS / SHOTS ON TARGET / CORNERS Mondays game Apologies - I ended up taking Espanyol +0.5+1.0 with bet365 at 1.18. For tonight Crawley V Doncaster in UK Div 1 - again low scoring close game. Doncaster have a slight edge on shots/shots on goal / corners. Can't see Crawley scoring more than 1 goal (final score suggests 0-1 or 1-1 ) Bet365 - Doncaster Asian +1.5 + 2.0 @ 1.10 betting the winnings to date of 52 units to start protecting the pot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TZOGAS Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Re: Prediction using SHOTS / SHOTS ON TARGET / CORNERS can you explain us ellitle bit beter you system?........you are study the shoots corner for the one team...ok.?......you are study the same and for the other team...right? the prediction of the shoots corner....how you are doing?....and in the and how you do you predict the winner team?...... thanks a lot....sorry for my english.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
profitprophet Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 Re: Prediction using SHOTS / SHOTS ON TARGET / CORNERS Tuesday's game from last night Crawley v Doncaster 1-1 - spot on - pot now at 157.81 Birmingham v Sheffield Wednesday everything suggests high scoring game withWednesday winning/drawing. No real correct score suggestions for this. My bet is +1.5 goals for the game @ 1.37 with betfair bet 37 units. In answer to how I am getting these weightings, I am looking at number of shotsfor both teams, shots on goals and corners and then making an assessment fromthat by working out some basic averages. There is nothing very complicatedabout it. It just follows the basics that a team can only score if they haveshots at the goal and maybe corners. If these counts are low then it's clearthat they're unlikely to score as many goals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TZOGAS Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Re: Prediction using SHOTS / SHOTS ON TARGET / CORNERS if you don't mind givew an example please.......i am following your selection...but i would like to know how you calculate all of that.... that's why if you want give us an axample practice...... thanks...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
profitprophet Posted February 20, 2013 Author Share Posted February 20, 2013 Re: Prediction using SHOTS / SHOTS ON TARGET / CORNERS Birmingham V ShedWednesday 0-0 - lost units -37.1 since bet was +1.5 goals for the game pot downto 120 units. Quite a bad results really given that this came up as highscoring game. Will need to reconsider betting strategy at this stage. There issome merit in this but clearly the betting on low odds will have an impact onthe pot (as we'd expected) maybe correct scores will be the way to go andstraight out wins or draws. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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