Robertob's jump racing thread

[robertob]

As I always want to take on challenges, learn and improve my skills I started to get my nose a bit deeper into jump racing this season. It didn't fare to badly so far but obviously I have still plenty to learn about the jumping game as I'm actually very much a man for the flat. But I really enjoyed my visits to NH meetings here in Ireland over this winter and therefore I'd like to document my progress in an own thread as it always helps me to stay much more disciplined and to see how well I do and if I reall have valid arguments to make for a horse's chance anyway. I don't expect this to be a overly profitable thread but if I break even it'd be a success for me. After all it's also a bit of fun for me on days where I have absolutely nothing to do and don't fancy anything on the flat. 13.20 Punchestown: Don Cossack @ 6/5 Betfred - 6pts win Hard to see him getting beaten here today. He was regarded as a very special horse before his last race, here at Punchestown when he wasn't up to the pace of Pont Alexandre and fell at the last. He's much better than that though, and his trainer keeps faith in him, saying Don Cossack is still an exciting prospect who would have gone much closer to PA normally, but just wasn't 100% that day probably. This here today is easier anyway and Don Cossack should prove a too hard nut to crack for the rest in this field. 13.30 Musselburgh: According To Trev @ 17/2 VC - 2pt win I feel this should be a thing between Aerial and According To Trev and while the first name one is a clear favourite and has a big chance on the weights I think According To Trev's chance is underestimated here. He faded badly in gruelling ground conditions at Cheltenham lto getting a long way beaten in the end, but the better ground today at Musselburgh should really help to see him finishing his race in much better style. He won at Cheltenham in October a competitive Novice hurdle over 26f on good to soft ground, so he clearly stays the trip, but good ground looks crucial to him. This form worked out very well with Our Vinnie the runner-up winning two Grade 3's subsequently over in Ireland and finishing a decent 3rd to the exciting Pont Alexandre at Leopardstown last week. According To Trev is still generally lightly raced and has a better chance than the price suggest in my mind here today anyway with ground conditions in his favour over this sort of trip. 15.00 Musselburgh: Quito Du Tresor @ 10/1 VC - 1pt win Wide open race I feel but Quito Du Tresor has some credentials to see him go well here for a big price. His recent outings aren't too encouraging but after another small break he might take advantage of a slipping mark today as he's 3lb below his last winning mark now. The trip might be slightly too short but he goes very well on good ground and he has still some decent form to offer over 2m anyway. With a decent apprentice on board who takes 7lb off the weight Quito Du Tresor looks very well weighted and should have something to say about the outcome of the race I feel. 15.20 Punchestown: Alderwood - 4/1 Bet365 - 2pts win Looks a tricky contest but Alderwood could be potentially well handicapped on his Handicap debut after winning his first chase in good style at Navan a fortnight ago. He probably needed his two outings before that after a break of more than half a year. He was a Grade 1 winner over hurdles, goes well on heavy ground and should have more to offer now with the good experience he made recently over the big fences. He jumps well too and distance is no problem in contrast to some others here who should find 2m on the sharp side. 15.30 Musselburgh: Brick Red @ 5/2 Bet365 - 4pts win Hard to see Brick Red getting beaten in this field today. He's on a hat-trick and won his most recent start at Ludlow in breathtaking fashion, never getting off the bridle there, jumping well and cruising to an easy win by around six lengths. He gets further up in the mark for this obviously, but this probably won't stop him as he looks sure to improve again. Better ground probably will help to bring out more I think and 5/2 looks a big price in my mind.

[robertob]

Re: Robertob's jump racing thread Fairly disappointing overall, just one winner, Brick Red done it nicely, Alderwood and Don Cossack finishing 2nd, the other two had now chance whatsoever. Overall Stats: Staked: 15pts Returned: 14pts Profit/Loss: -1.00pt ROI: -6.67% Bets: 5 Wins: 1 S/R: 20.00%