Don Bratwurst Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I'm trying to create a system for draws and would like to a) share my thoughts with you about the factors I think should be consulted b) ask you which additonal factors may be consulted c) discuss a potential weighing of these factors to predict draws in the big european leagues. Here are the factors which I think should play a role - A rating of both teams according to their strength / league position / form - Overall percentage of draws of the home team - Overall percentage of draws of the away team - Percentage of draws of the home team in home games - Percentage of draws of the away team in away games - Difference of positions in the league table. Away team for example on position 6 may be satisfied with a draw at a site from position 10 and vice versa. - Average No of goals scored of both teams. Less goals scored in a game lead to more draws then many goals. - Form: Not in form teams may be more satisfied getting a draw rather then high-flying teams - Former meetings between the two sites (not really sure about this factor) - Concentrate on leagues where many draws seem to occur (>30% ??) I'm still not sure whether I should concentrate on the stats for the whole current season, even earlier seasons or just the last lets say 10 games. Any comments / thoughts / additions are highly appreciated :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giraldi Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Re: How to create a decent drawing system Here are very good players who definitely will give you good tips. Until then please allow me to tell you my opinion. I agree with your approach, but I would think paying attention to the following aspects: 1.To play for draw, in my opinion, is one of the hardest strategies. Statistics do not help much since with the current system with 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw the teams will not be motivated to draw. You must first find the teams that to be happy or to have interest to get a draw in the next match and not teams that have many draws in the past. No one wants many draws, but like many victories. For example, in the Premier, thinking absurd, after 24 rounds and 24 draws, a team would be slightly above relegation. 2. to play in leagues with many draws is not the best idea in my opinion. We're not looking to win more betting but we want to win more units. You will not get the fair price for draw in those leagues and in time will be disadvantageous. 3. it is important to view the history of direct meetings. If there are many draws you can't say anything but if there are few draws probably will be now on and the match should be avoided. It is well known that there are certain affinities between teams, clubs, cities, ... etc. It is better to take the three points at home (or away) than only one point each after 2 draws. I am not sure it is useful for you but it is what I am thinking now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Bratwurst Posted February 1, 2013 Author Share Posted February 1, 2013 Re: How to create a decent drawing system Thank you for sharing your thoughts. 1.To play for draw, in my opinion, is one of the hardest strategies. Statistics do not help much since with the current system with 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw the teams will not be motivated to draw. You must first find the teams that to be happy or to have interest to get a draw in the next match and not teams that have many draws in the past. No one wants many draws, but like many victories. For example, in the Premier, thinking absurd, after 24 rounds and 24 draws, a team would be slightly above relegation. I get your point and I agree in parts. A team is never is satisfied with 1 point when 3 points are possible. But draws happen, roughly in 25% - 30% of european leagues. So there must be either some constellations when a team (or both teams) is satisfied with a draw or some constellations of two equally strong teams which draw simply because their strengths cancel out each other. I mean, there are teams like Stoke, which draw 50% of their league games, although they - of course - prefer to win am match then drawing it ;) 2. to play in leagues with many draws is not the best idea in my opinion. We're not looking to win more betting but we want to win more units. You will not get the fair price for draw in those leagues and in time will be disadvantageous. Agree on that one, but will keep an eye on my stats regarding mean odds for draws in leagues with > 30% draws (France League 2 for example) 3. it is important to view the history of direct meetings. If there are many draws you can't say anything but if there are few draws probably will be now on and the match should be avoided. It is well known that there are certain affinities between teams, clubs, cities, ... etc. It is better to take the three points at home (or away) than only one point each after 2 draws. Actually I dont get your point here. You mean that I can't get information out of the fact, that there happened to be some draws in former match-ups between two teams? Instead avoiding a match if there were no draws in the last matches between two sides? Thanks and regards, and please keep up the good work in your thread, it's always fun to read :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.