Jumps Racing - 30/01/2013

[Blazing Bailey]

240 Ludlow - On The Off Chance 5/1 Bet365 I think this is a race where you can narrow the field down by quite a bit because some of the runners look out of their depth or hopelessly out of form. My shortlist is as follows: On The Off Chance - Fell at the last on his previous run but she was virtually guaranteed of a place and the form of the front two since looks pretty good in this context. The winner placed in a C3 novice race and the 2nd placed behind Puffin Billy in a G2. Those results might not have been the strongest in depth but they still reflect well on the selection. Maybe more interestingly is that the 4th placed horse had previously run blinders off marks 115 & 118 in decent handicaps for the grade (latter at Cheltenham). She has been given time to get over that fall and providing she is none the worse, she could run a big race tomorrow. Ussee - Should improve for the step up in trip but I dont think the level of form she has run to so far will be good enough. Brockwell Park is my other main fancy. On her 2nd career run she finished a 7l 2nd to an 120 rival and then stepped up on that when running an eye catching race LTO. The winner looks a decent type for the Henderson yard and a line through that horse would give this one a very good chance but the 2nd lets the form down a little (RPR rated around 104/5) and there wasnt much in behind her either. The trip that day was over a furlong longer and I think 3miles will bring about the best in this horse so I will pass on this occasion. Annaluna has run a couple of decent races and looked to tire late on over 3 miles LTO. Overall I dont think the form is quite strong enough. Cool Cascade is currently the favourite pretty much based on her one win at the end of last season. That looked a modest race and she was gifted the win by the eventual runner up making a hash of the last. I wouldnt be rushing to back this one at 5/2 on her first run of the season that is for sure!

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Jumps Racing - 30/01/2013 310 Ludlow - Father Probus 9/2 Boylesports & Hodgson 16/1 bet365 This looks a fairly strong race for the grade but it seems a few are prone to the odd mistake. My shortlist is below: Rydalis only has one run to go off and that was a fairly impressive win where the 2nd (who re-opposes here) has placed off a mark of 105 since. This horse looked to have something in hand that day and started looking around at the finish. I think she could have scope off this mark but I find it hard to guage how good she is likely to be. I will probably keep to a watching brief for now, but I wouldnt be surprised if she ran well. Satou is one of the horses that has serious jumping errors and more importantly for this race, they seem to be more evident in softer ground. He has solid class form and with Johnson back on board, he will probably show his last run to be all wrong but jumping will be at a premium in a decent race like this and he may struggle. Milo Milan is another who has talent isnt the greatest jumper and whilst this one also has some decent form I think he is too much of a risk in a race of this nature. Father Probus came back with a bang on his seasonal reappearance. The 2nd has placed and won since and the 3rd had previously shown a strong level of form. I think there is a very good chance that this one is capable to defying his current mark especially if he comes for that run. With conditions to suit, he will be high on my shortlist. Quinte Du Chatelet has showed improved form the last twice but it is hard to see him reversing the form with Father Probus. Hodgson looks a very lively outsider even though he is a 10 race maiden. The form of this one's 2nd at Haydock has worked out well with the winner going in again and placing off higher marks in better grade races since. The 3rd also won a C3 handicap off 105 recently. He than put up a decent effort at Ffos Las in a beginners chase when finishing a 1l 4th where the heavy ground and jumping slightly right at the last probably just cost him the win. He has subsequently run in the Sussex National where he was bang there at the begining of the straight before his stamina faded and he weakened 3 out. Providing he is none the worse for that win and that the ground doesnt get too heavy I expecting him to run well at a price.