Tuesday 4:40: David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle

[Sir Puntalot]

:ok

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Tuesday 4:40: David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle Mares' Hurdle Stats: None worthwhile available Considering this race has only been run five times prior to this year, it's difficult to use any stats to try and find the winner. Especially when there have only been two different victors! Quevega goes for her fifth straight win and it would take a brave man or woman to oppose her. However, she isn't getting any younger at the age of 9 and there's always likely to be a bit of each-way value to try and pick up some place money or should the unexpected happen, profit from Quevega failing. It's pretty much impossible to find any chinks in her armour so long as she's in the same sort of heart as previous years and the fact that Willie Mullins is sending her to Cheltenham once again it's hard to believe she's not impressing at home. Based on this, I think you have to accept that she's likely to win 9 times out of 10 and based on that this doesn't look a race to go mad in. In terms of looking at the each-way market or betting without the favourite, novices have had a pretty good record in the race with regards to making the frame. Whiteoak was a novice when taking the inaugural running of the contest and first-season hurdlers finished 2nd in this in 2011 and 2012. Given this is a non-handicap, I rule out those who look to have plenty to find on official ratings which cuts the field down a little bit. The one novice who does appeal to me at a big price of 25/1 is Donald McCain's She Ranks Me. She seems to be progressing well since joining the yard from Ireland and McCain has said that she's a good ground mare and has got away with her performances on soft this winter rather than enjoyed it. She won twice in December and chased home a good type last time who is 10/1 for the Albert Bartlett at the Festival. She looks to have a good attitude and stay the trip well so if the ground does stay on the half-decent side I can see a big run at a good price. She ran in February so is fit and that's a good sign as she is a mare who appears to thrive on recent racing (can perhaps upgrade that 2nd even more given it was her first run for a couple of months). Une Artiste is the one that the market believes is the principal danger to Willie Mullins' supermare. She does bring some good form to the table this season and won at the Festival last year (Fred Winter) but she's only run once over this trip and that came in a steadily-run affair at Sandown last time. She's outsprinted her rivals on her two runs/wins this season and if they go a good clip in this, it might just be a different story. Far from saying she doesn't stay but I wouldn't say it was absolutely guaranteed so don't see any value in a price of 11/2 or 2/1 without the favourite - especially as she hasn't run since January 5th. Last year's runner up KENTFORD GREY LADY would have a huge chance of making the frame again in my opinion. She finished really well to be second on that occasion and has run well without winning the last thrice. She has the combination of speed and stamina that I like at Cheltenham and she's better than a three-mile slogger on heavy ground - races she's competed in the last twice. She does stay three miles but travels powerfully and the real stamina tests recently have probably blunted her talent a little I reckon. Better ground seems sure to be in her favour and she'll definitely be finishing well over this 2m4f trip. She's run within the last month so fitness is on her side and I think she'll give the most for Quevega to think about. Having said that, the form of the Emma Lavelle yard concerns me (none of her horses have got closer than 8l to the winner in the last fortnight, from 13 runners, and all but one of those were sent off at 14/1 or shorter). Given that reservation, this is another race than I'd leave alone until closer. I can't see her being much shorter on the day (was 10/1 bar Quevega last year). Advice: Wait until the night before/day of the race. If a bet is striked by me it's likely to be either KENTFORD GREY LADY W/O QUEVEGA currently @ 7/2 (PP) or e/w SHE RANKS ME currently @ 25/1 (pp)