Wednesday 4:40: Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

[Sir Puntalot]

:ok

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Wednesday 4:40: Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle About time I put up my ante-post(!) for the Fred Winter on Wednesday in case the price comes in... 4.40 Cheltenham (Weds) - 1pt e/w Zamdy Man @ 20/1 (Bet365) Followers of the thread will know I quite like this horse. I shouldn't really, as I don't think I've won anything with him, but I'll forgive him should he come up trumps on Wednesday! As I've said before he caught my eye on the flat in three starts, looking a proper galloper who would want 1m4f. He's a nice, big type who looked like a potentially useful juvenile hurdler and he's performed well on three starts so far. His first effort came in a Grade 1 which says all you need to know about how highly Venetia Williams rated him and he ran well for a very long way considering he had a lot of work on to compete against quality, relatively experienced juveniles. He travelled and jumped well in the main but got tired on his first run for a while also and sweated up quite badly as well. He looked better visably at Huntingdon and I really thought he'd go in that day but Chris Pea Green (a talented type himself) had too much speed and sprinted clear. My selection galloped on well to be a clear 2nd but just lacked the speed of the winner. Calculated Risk was well behind that day and even if he wasn't quite right, it still adds some substance to the form (that one is 14/1 for this should he run, having won on Saturday). He again sweated up quite badly at Haydock last time and that would be a concern on the big occasion but he still ran well again so it's maybe not a big negative. He did look a bit slow but plugged on to regain 2nd close home and I think there are no issues about his stamina. He finds off the bridle which is another positive here and although that form maybe isn't quite so special it was a decent effort on very heavy ground. Although he handles soft I'd expect he'll be happier on a sounder surface and he gets in here off a fair weight. Seven of the eight winners of this race were beaten on their first two hurdling starts so the fact that this one has yet to win over obstacles is no real negative as his mark is potentially more lenient and he also scrapes into the important trend that 7 winners had also run within 25 days (will be exactly that figure for Williams' charge). Flat ability is fairly important in this race historically too and he's got a solid rating of 81 in that sphere and I don't think he had chance to reach his potential either (obviously the case with many) but he never really got his optimum conditions so I think he's probably a bit better than that. The track should really suit I think as he's a galloper and not necessarily a speedster (although he can travel - just doesn't have much of a turn of foot) so the testing 2m should be right up his street. The yard are enjoying a good season and Aidan Coleman jumps back aboard having been on at Huntingdon. Fingers crossed he doesn't boil over prior to the race but he's capable of running a good solid race and I reckon this may be the most ideal race he's had in his career to date with regards to conditions. Decent chance at a decent price.