Jumps Racing - Wednesday 23rd January

[Bathtime For Rupert]

2.10 Ayr - 2pts win Nuts N Bolts @ 7/2 (Hills) On the face of it, it looks like Lucinda Russell's horse has been disappointing over fences so far but I think you can take plenty out of his defeat last time when the tongue-tie was fitted for the first time. He travelled pretty well and jumped much better than on his chasing debut (obvious excuse at Carlisle) but just seemed to get tired on the heavy ground and the 3m1f trip. Coming back down in trip ought to help and he looks to me like he wants better ground. He has performed on soft but think he'll be even better on a sounder surface. Although this remains soft today it isn't as bad as last time out and now the trip is definitely okay and his jumping seems more assured, he can go very close in this tight field. 2.40 Ayr - 1pt win Cool Baranca @ 25/1 (Bet365) This may look a bit of a barmy bet as the outsider of a field of five but this horse is fairly treated and although there are a few issues to contend with here I still don't believe 25/1 is reflective of her chances. The top two in the betting need respecting and may well dominate this but Top Wood was probably flattered last time when passing beaten/tired horses in desperate ground at Haydock and his run previous to that hasn't worked out great. The 2nd favourite here is up 12lbs for winning a much easier race and may well be harshly-treated too. The third favourite is another with a good chance on form but fitness is taken on trust. For these reasons I'm happy siding with the outsider. The mare has twice won off marks either the same or higher than this and although this 2m4f on soft ground is a question mark, they're unlikely to go a mad gallop and she can get home (stayed well on flat). Her record suggests strongly that she thrives on racing and her best performances come shortly after a previous run. That is an excuse on two of her last three hurdles runs (along with strong races) and she wasn't disgraced on the run in the middle when staying on into midfield in a hot race on good ground at Aintree. Seems happiest with give in the ground and has run three weeks ago. This race isn't as strong or have as many threats as usual and the smaller field can allow her not to get too far behind. Many of her wins have come in fairly small fields and although I'd be happier if this was over 2 miles, she still looks to be better than a 25/1 shot at 2m4f. 3.10 Ayr - 1pt win Rich Lord @ 16/1 (Bet365) A lot has to be taken on trust with Ferdy Murphy's horses seemingly not firing on all cylinders but his last runner got its head in front and this one ran too badly to be true last time. It's plausible that a hard race at Newcastle three weeks prior still had its effects at Haydock but he's pretty consistent on the whole and suggests he can bounce back quickly. Three miles probably is testing enough anyway and the return to 2m4f on soft ground appears an ideal combination. Hopefully the yard have turned a corner now. He's finished 1st, 2nd and 3rd on his last three starts over the trip with the 2nd coming on ground too quick and the 3rd on his seasonal reappearance. If he's over his recent exertions I'd expect a better run than a 16/1 shot for all his jumping can be an issue.