from one guru to another...

[roofus]

hello all, just a trivia question for those that are interested in 'winning/beating the oddds/succeeding" etc. If value (price of collects) is what is required to be a success vs the number of winners, and taking into consideration the stance that a lot of people have in that you should only bet when the odds are in your favour- or in other words the price available is greater than what your interpretation of what the odds should be after self determined prices if a rating theory is being applied, does it stand to reason that the following is correct? If a "system" has a success rate of 100%, than a price "should" be $1.00 as there is no risk. If there was a 50% chance, true odds should be $2.00, so it stands to reason that a 90% success rate equals $1.20, 80% equals $1.40, a 70% success rate is therefore $1.60, 60% = $1.80, 50% is evens being $2.00, then 40% should be $2.20 and 30% $2.40 etc.... The trivia question is: if a system for selection is being employed, and the said system is showing a strike rate of 40%, is it viable to then determine that a qualifying horse's chance in the particular race is 40% irrespective of the rest of the field's chances? My thought is that because the horse "meets" the relevant criteria as per the system, than it should therefore have a 40% chance of success. This is contrary to historical beliefs that it is only correct to say a horse's chance is calculated compared to the rest of the field is is matched against. My feeling is that if a horse qualifies under a theory/system and that system has a 40% strike rate, that you would therefore be achieving the the above secret to success, ie. finding value (over the odds) if a price of greater than $2.20 was obtained. The bookies in their wisdom might have set the same horse after employing their methodologies at $5.00? A price of even $2.40 would represent nearly 10% over the "system's" valuation of its true odds. Im anticipating differing schools of thought, one being replies based on profit, another recognising the importance of value as there is a difference between the two.

[The Saint]

Re: from one guru to another... In order to give a concrete answer you'd need the number of selections and the BSP of these too. Crude example - a system selects 10 runners. 4 of these win giving you your 40% SR and they've oblidged at odds of 2/1, 3/1, 4/6 & 1/2. You've got six losers at various odds too - fill in your own here!! The system then pumps out a seletion with a BSP of 9/1 - that's roughly it's chance. Even if you have 10,000 selections and 4,000 of them win, it definatly does not mean the next selection has a 40% chance of success. I think that's what you're asking....:unsure