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Newcastle United v Reading > Sat 19th January

Aidymac

By Aidymac
in Premier League Predictions

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Aidymac

Aidymac

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[TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=class: firstColumn]Newcastle United v Reading (15:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.9[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.65[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.95[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]99.98 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

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Jase82

Jase82

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Newcastle have to be the bet here for me. They're slowly getting players back. Cabaye was on the bench against Norwich, while Steven Taylor should be fit. Debuchy made his debut at the weekend, and they're reportedly close to signing striker Loic Remy. Reading away from home are pretty weak, and I think too much emphasis has been put here on Newcastle's recent results. Anything above 1.8 for the home win looks like value to me...

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Kizo321

Kizo321

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Re: Newcastle United v Reading > Sat 19th January about this remy fellow anyway - he missed almost the whole of this season and a large part of last one due to being injured all the time. and now he signs for a club playing in a league with toughest defenders. doubt he'd last too long. papis cisse might shine now as he likes better to play as centerforward than a wingman where he played because of demba ba. toon problem was pardew just couldn't get those two to score simoultaneuoustly. so, let's not be amazed if suddenly papis cisse starts firing. he did it in his first game after ba left, no?

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neilovan

neilovan

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Re: Newcastle United v Reading > Sat 19th January Goals looks a little dicey here. Reading are not scoring (1 goal in last 5 away games) They have the worst record away from home in the premier league (2 draws 9 losses) Only 2 other teams in major European football have a similar or worse record (Troyes and Cercle Brugge) The one stat that stands out here is how bad Reading are in the 2nd half of games away from home. In 11 away games they have not won a 2nd 45 minutes. They have drawn once ( liverpool 0-0) and lost the other 10 times. They have managed just 1 2nd half goal away from home in 11 games. They have been outscored 1 to 16 with a goal differential of -15. Only Villa top this in the premier league with a -16 goal diff in the 2nd half (read in 8-0 to Chelsea). 2 other teams (Lazio and Dundee) have also only managed 1 second half goal away, but Reading are basically the worst 2nd half team in Europe in away games. Having said that they are reasonable in the 1st half. They have lost 2 1st halves (2-0 Sunderland and 1-0 Liverpool) in 11 games. Banker : Newcastle to win the 2nd 45 minutes is even money on bet365 Half time Draw and Newcastle win FT is 7/2 bet365 Half time 0-0 draw and full time 2-0 Newcastle is 20-1 bet365.

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ruscopico

ruscopico

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Re: Newcastle United v Reading > Sat 19th January

Goals looks a little dicey here. Reading are not scoring (1 goal in last 5 away games) They have the worst record away from home in the premier league (2 draws 9 losses) Only 2 other teams in major European football have a similar or worse record (Troyes and Cercle Brugge) The one stat that stands out here is how bad Reading are in the 2nd half of games away from home. In 11 away games they have not won a 2nd 45 minutes. They have drawn once ( liverpool 0-0) and lost the other 10 times. They have managed just 1 2nd half goal away from home in 11 games. They have been outscored 1 to 16 with a goal differential of -15. Only Villa top this in the premier league with a -16 goal diff in the 2nd half (read in 8-0 to Chelsea). 2 other teams (Lazio and Dundee) have also only managed 1 second half goal away, but Reading are basically the worst 2nd half team in Europe in away games. Having said that they are reasonable in the 1st half. They have lost 2 1st halves (2-0 Sunderland and 1-0 Liverpool) in 11 games. Banker : Newcastle to win the 2nd 45 minutes is even money on bet365 Half time Draw and Newcastle win FT is 7/2 bet365 Half time 0-0 draw and full time 2-0 Newcastle is 20-1 bet365.
Some more great analysis here Neil. I'm all over Newcastle to win the 2nd half
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neilovan

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Re: Newcastle United v Reading > Sat 19th January Was goofing around with my database (all the results of the major european leagues for the last 10 years) Was looking at prediction methodologies : found one here http://www.1x2monster.com/phpfpages/forecast_help/score.php (I have no connection with monster.com) , and basically created a program to check it out. Essentially I send the calculation the following... home team, away team, match date and season. I get the last 4 games for each team (home and away) and do the analysis. I can do this historically for any team in the premier league or which ever league I choose, and see how close the 'prediction' is to the actual result. The results have been quiet startling for me. This damn algorithm is producing a very acceptable prediction rate. over 60% accurate which is kind of freaky. My goal is to find 5 to 8 different prediction methodologies, write the code for them, and then apply them to each upcoming match. When most of the ducks (say 6 of 8) are green, the bet is a go !!!! The black box sends me back a result which is one of home win, away win or draw, with a goal strength which is a positive or negative number. Positive numbers indicate home wins, negative numbers away wins and the range of -2 to +3 or thereabouts are drawn games. For this game the algorithm gave me ... 'home win' with a goal strength of 8. Which probably translates into newcastle winning. The above webpage also tries to predict exact scores, but I reckon that's a waste of time and effort. I used it for the two games this evening (Schalke v Hannover ---- Home win strength 7). (Espanyol v Mallorca ---- Home win strength 5). and both of them won. The one thing that seems to screw up these calcultions is when top 8 teams are playing each other. for example Arsenal at home at home [TABLE=class: restab, width: 881] [TR] [TH]Season[/TH] [TH=width: 70]Match date[/TH] [TH]Home Team[/TH] [TH=width: 60]Home Form[/TH] [TH=width: 60, colspan: 2]Home Goal AVG[/TH] [TH]Away team[/TH] [TH=width: 60]Away Form[/TH] [TH=width: 60, colspan: 2]Away Goal AVG[/TH] [TH=width: 3][/TH] [TH=width: 40, colspan: 3]Betting Odds[/TH] [TH=width: 2][/TH] [TH=width: 20, bgcolor: #5D655B]Res[/TH] [TH=width: 20, bgcolor: #5D655B]Pred[/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TH=colspan: 4][/TH] [TH]F[/TH] [TH]A[/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH]A[/TH] [TH]F[/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH]1[/TH] [TH]X[/TH] [TH]2[/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [TH][/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2012[/TD] [TD]2012-08-18[/TD] [TD]Arsenal[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]0.00[/TD] [TD]0.00[/TD] [TD]Sunderland[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD]0.00[/TD] [TD]0.00[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #464945][/TD] [TD]1.40[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #E0AF1B]4.50[/TD] [TD]8.50[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #464945][/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #E5E1B3]0-0[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #E5E1B3]D0[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2012[/TD] [TD]2012-09-15[/TD] [TD]Arsenal[/TD] [TD]D[/TD] [TD]0.00[/TD] [TD]0.00[/TD] [TD]Southampton[/TD] [TD]L[/TD] [TD]3.00[/TD] [TD]2.00[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #464945][/TD] [TD=bgcolor: GREEN]1.36[/TD] [TD]5.00[/TD] [TD]8.50[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #464945][/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #BBE5B3]6-1[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #BBE5B3]H11[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2012[/TD] [TD]2012-09-29[/TD] [TD]Arsenal[/TD] [TD]WD[/TD] [TD]3.00[/TD] [TD]0.50[/TD] [TD]Chelsea[/TD] [TD]DW[/TD] [TD]0.00[/TD] [TD]1.00[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #464945][/TD] [TD]2.10[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #E0AF1B]3.40[/TD] [TD]3.50[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #464945][/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #E5B3BB]1-2[/TD] [TD]D1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2012[/TD] [TD]2012-10-27[/TD] [TD]Arsenal[/TD] [TD]LWD[/TD] [TD]2.33[/TD] [TD]1.00[/TD] [TD]QPR[/TD] [TD]LLLD[/TD] [TD]2.25[/TD] [TD]1.25[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #464945][/TD] [TD]1.36[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #E0AF1B]5.00[/TD] [TD]8.50[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #464945][/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #BBE5B3]1-0[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #BBE5B3]H10[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2012[/TD] [TD]2012-11-10[/TD] [TD]Arsenal[/TD] [TD]WLWD[/TD] [TD]2.00[/TD] [TD]0.75[/TD] [TD]Fulham[/TD] [TD]DDWLL[/TD] [TD]2.40[/TD] [TD]1.80[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #464945][/TD] [TD]1.53[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #E0AF1B]4.20[/TD] [TD]6.00[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #464945][/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #E5E1B3]3-3[/TD] [TD]H7[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2012[/TD] [TD]2012-11-17[/TD] [TD]Arsenal[/TD] [TD]DWLWD[/TD] [TD]2.20[/TD] [TD]1.20[/TD] [TD]Tottenham[/TD] [TD]LWWWL[/TD] [TD]1.60[/TD] [TD]2.00[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #464945][/TD] [TD=bgcolor: GREEN]1.91[/TD] [TD]3.75[/TD] [TD]3.80[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #464945][/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #BBE5B3]5-2[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #BBE5B3]H8[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2012[/TD] [TD]2012-12-01[/TD] [TD]Arsenal[/TD] [TD]WDWLWD[/TD] [TD]2.67[/TD] [TD]1.33[/TD] [TD]Swansea[/TD] [TD]WDLLLW[/TD] [TD]1.17[/TD] [TD]1.33[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #464945][/TD] [TD]1.44[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #E0AF1B]4.50[/TD] [TD]7.00[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #464945][/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #E5B3BB]0-2[/TD] [TD]D1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2012[/TD] [TD]2012-12-08[/TD] [TD]Arsenal[/TD] [TD]LWDWLWD[/TD] [TD]2.29[/TD] [TD]1.43[/TD] [TD]West Brom[/TD] [TD]LWWLDLD[/TD] [TD]1.86[/TD] [TD]1.43[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #464945][/TD] [TD=bgcolor: GREEN]1.50[/TD] [TD]4.33[/TD] [TD]6.50[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #464945][/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #BBE5B3]2-0[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #BBE5B3]H6[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2012[/TD] [TD]2012-12-29[/TD] [TD]Arsenal[/TD] [TD]WLWDWLWD[/TD] [TD]2.25[/TD] [TD]1.25[/TD] [TD]Newcastle[/TD] [TD]LLLLDDDDL[/TD] [TD]2.00[/TD] [TD]1.22[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #464945][/TD] [TD]1.44[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #E0AF1B]4.50[/TD] [TD]7.00[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #464945][/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #BBE5B3]7-3[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #BBE5B3]H16[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2012[/TD] [TD]2013-01-13[/TD] [TD]Arsenal[/TD] [TD]WWLWDWLWD[/TD] [TD]2.78[/TD] [TD]1.44[/TD] [TD]Man City[/TD] [TD]WLWWDDWWD[/TD] [TD]1.00[/TD] [TD]1.60[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #464945][/TD] [TD]2.63[/TD] [TD]3.50[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: red]2.80[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #464945][/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #E5B3BB]0-2[/TD] [TD=bgcolor: #E5B3BB]A-1[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] The damn algorithm predicted 7 of 10 correctly. the three white boxes under Pred were incorrect. H16 means home win with a goal strength of 16 A-1 means away win with a goal strength of -1 Just a note . These guys playing in the AFCON are going to be drenched. Meant to rain all weekend in Jo'burg.

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blackcrow

blackcrow

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Re: Newcastle United v Reading > Sat 19th January Under 2.5 @ 2.16 pinnacle Newcastle have lost 7 of their last 10 EPL games, as they look to stop their slide down the ladder. They are coming off a 0-0 draw at Norwich and without Ba, goals are hard to come by. They have two clean sheets in their last four home games, and tend to feature in low scoring games against teams in the second half of the ladder, as they beat QPR 1-0, lost 1-0 to West Ham and beat Norwich 1-0 at home in some of these home games. Reading are coming off a very good come from behind win over West Brom so they have some confidence for this game. They have not scored in 6 of their last 10 away games, and scored just once in two others, and with Newcastle desperate for a win, then they may find it hard once again to score here. Both sides are not in consistenly good form so there is not much between them, and like both defences to do well here

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Aidymac

Aidymac

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Re: Newcastle United v Reading > Sat 19th January

Newcastle looked pretty short pre-match. Didnt think they could justify being below 2.00 given how bad they've looked in recent months. Bet Mike Ashley is regretting giving Pardew that 8 year deal. Ludicrous decision.
It's easy to blame Pardew now, when he was probably the best manager in the league last year. People are very quick to forget.
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IAmGooner

IAmGooner

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Re: Newcastle United v Reading > Sat 19th January He's been quite an average manager overall though. They had a good season last year but I wouldnt give an 8 year contract to the best managers, never mind Pardew. Mike Ashley is a certified clown running a football club too, not an ideal job when you have an owner who doesnt want to invest whats needed. Wonder how much Ashley will have to pay to remove Pardew, surely its gonna happen before the end of the season the way things are going.

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