Simonsig - bet or lay?

[superfoo]

If given a 50/50 bet on the spot would you bet or lay Simonsig to win the Arkle? Im sure theres a way to do a poll but I dont know how. This question was bounded round my local/bookies at weekend and 6/7 wanted to back. Just interested in opinions. Me and my friends are quite varied in knowledge but none of us have the knowledge that a lot on here do. It seems a lot of things appear to be in Simonsigs favour but would be interested in opiniions. Captain Conan was mentioned but I have never seen him race but all i read seems to be very positive? Dont venture in here much so please show a little mercy:)

[bowles10]

I don't back short prices at the festival So on that basis I would want to lay it The arkle is all about speed, will simonsig be the best jumper in the field?