Flat Racing 05/01/2013

[Blazing Bailey]

2.35 - Lingfield - Swiss Cross 10/1 Stan James I think the price on this one is massive as I have it between this one and Whaileyy. The former has beaten the selection previously at Kempton and I dont doubt that he could hold that form but Im certain that Swiss Cross is a better horse at Lingfield and he has a very good draw from stall 4. I personally think he should be around the 4-5/1 mark.

[chris34]

Re: Flat Racing 05/01/2013 1.25 Lingfield At last the Blue Square series starts and this is usually a good little series of races to get us to the spring. Speak The Truth has suggested his turn is soon but has now gone up 3lb for latest effort and will need to build on that again but is still 1lb below his last winning mark when winning a series of this last year. Draw been pretty unkind here. Desert Strike has blown very hot and cold just recently but latest effort was a better effort under Crowley, he keeps the ride and the step back up to 6f is a positive move but losing run stacking up and becoming frustrating. Colourbearer looked to turn the corner last time out after a run of rotten runs, obviously needs to back that up now but is potentially on a good mark to do so some 5lb below last winning mark. Best form has come over 5f but the run last time out was over 6f at Wolves but also all form has come at that track. Jonnie Skull got a race fell apart in his lap last time out and a 6lb penalty makes this a much tougher task an gonna need to roll back the years to be winning this off this sort of mark. Fantasy Fighter is worth keeping an eye on, gone completely the wrong way but showed slightly better signs last time out has since switched yards but is running 2lb out of the handicap and likely to be another day if Harris can turn his fortunes around but one to watch. For me Waterloo Dock could go well at a huge price. He has struggled since winning one of these last winter off a 6lb higher mark, was given a short break in the autumn ran in a claimer last month never really stood much of a chance at the weights and surely better can be expected after that run and should strip fitter. Draw not helpful but stall 9 is a NR so that helps a little. 0.5pt e/w Waterloo Dock 33/1 bet365 2.00 Lingfield The second division and perhaps that slighty stronger division on paper with a couple of improving sorts. Catalinas Diamond is in good heart at present but is becoming extremely frustrating this looks more competitive and just perhaps others better treated now. Waabel is very well treated on his best form and slightly better effort last time out wide draw not ideal and money will talk for this yard. Volcanic Dust does go better here than Wolves but still not a reliable sort and 2lb higher than that much better promising run on penultimate start questions to answer. Pharoh Jake has improved out of knowhere this winter, perhaps didn’t have that much to spare last time out and a further 3lb rise leaves him looking vunerable now but should still go well in a much stronger race. George Fenton looks the safest option. He ran a much respected race on the back of a break last time out finishing well before clearly tiring and going on paced in final furlong. He is only 2lb above his last winning mark and trainer stated he would come on for the run. He is well drawn again in stall 2. 2pt win George Fenton 11/2 bet365 2.35 Lingfield Really good race and hard to dismiss any of these but one does stand out at a price. Swiss Cross may just be high enough in the weights having won off 94 and has struggled off marks in the low 100’s last twice. Whailey won last time out but did get the run of the race and now has to prove he can cope with a much stronger race off a 5lb higher mark. Farmleigh House should get the race run to suit with presence of front runners in this small field, clearly has more improvement in him but has taken a big 8lb rise for latest win in a 5 runner field at Dundalk this looks a much stiffer task and Lingfield a very different track. Piscean last time out win took a big boost with Woolfall scoring next time out, a 3lb rise does leave him on a career high mark but did score quite nicely that day so be interesting to see what he can do now. Botti yard is going well but Mezzotint got the run of the race last time out but was disappointing and needs to prove this mark isn’t beyond him. Forest Edge was unable to get a soft lead last time out and never got involved unlikely to get it easy up front today neither, inexperienced rider takes 7lb off but wide draw tricky in this sort of field with so much pace likely. For me Sulis Minerva is of interest, last scoring off a mark of 80 in May not raced on the AW after that win until coming back from break in November. Showed much more last twice to suggest this mark isn’t beyond her. Her effort last time out was particularly pleasing running on strongly should get the race run to suit today and could go very well from a good draw. 2pt win Sulis Minerva 6/1 bet365