Jump Racing Saturday 5th

[cpo]

3.20 Chepstow - Welsh National - Master Overseer 1.5pts EW @ 12/1 William Hill David Pipe himself has described this horse as a plodder but that might just be good enough tomorrow. The age trend for this race is very strong in the last 10 years with just 3 placed horses in that time aged 10 or over but I am not taking age trends into account as much now, after Unioniste winning last time out and breaking an age trend that had stood for over 50 years! Master Overseer himself looks to be improving with age and he put in a career best effort last time out when battling on gamely at Cheltenham to win a grade 3 contest. He has already proven in the past that he is well suited to these marathon trips as he won the Sussex National at Plumpton back in 2010 and more recently won the Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter earlier this year. He does have to put a poor effort behind him in this race last year but he was never travelling that day and connections are much more confident of a good run this year. He went into the race last year on the back of a poor run but comes here this year after a career best win. He is a horse that doesn't have many gears but he will keep on galloping when others have cried enough. He is very brave and will handle the ground which I expect to be very testing. He is still lightly raced for a 10 year old and looks to be getting better with age. He has never fallen in his career and Tom Scudamore has struck up a good relationship with him. I think at the very least he will give us a good run for our money and go close. Teaforthree has to be hugely respected as this has been the long term target for this horse. He has a cracking record at the track which is important but at the current price I would prefer to take a chance on the Pipe horse. David will be trying to win this race for the first time after his father Martin won it 5 times in 6 years in the 80's and 90's.

[BillyHills]

Re: Jump Racing Saturday 5th 2.25 Sandown: 32 Red Novices’ Hurdle (The Tolworth Hurdle) (Grade 1) (2m110y) Overall an excellent renewal of the Tolworth Hurdle and six of the seven runners has some sort of chance. With the ground Heavy and drying out it will make this quite tacky going and stamina could be the key here and the ex-pointer Royal Boy could be the one to be on and gain his revenge over Melodic Rendezvous especially now he has had that experience under his belt. Poet may find the ground too sapping to use his flat speed so an alternative could be the other Henderson horse Golden Hoof who has been very impressive in his two victories so far including one over course and distance. Selections; 2pts Royal Boy 7/2 Blue Square 1pt Golden Hoof 13/2 Stan James Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/sandown-betting-henderson-holds-all-the-aces-in-grade-1-tolworth-hurdle-at-sandown