Jump Racing ~ Saturday Dec 8th

[BillyHills]

2.10 Aintree: Betfred Becher Handicap Chase (Listed) (3m2f) Terrific renewal of the Becher Chase and last year’s winner West End Rocker and National hero Ballabriggs will both have their supporters. I like Big Fella Thanks here over this trip, I don’t think he stayed the National distance in both of his efforts but jumped the fences well and goes in the ground. An each way alternative is Any Currency, in very good form at the moment and stays well, his third to Tidal Bay at Sandown last season was a good effort and has already won this season. Selections: 2pts Big Fella Thanks 7/1 Paddy Power 1pt EW Any Currency 14/1 Ladbrokes Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/aintree-betting-goerge-s-big-fella-can-land-the-becher-chase-at-aintree

[beaker1]

Re: Jump Racing ~ Saturday Dec 8th 12:45 Wetherby –Constant Security Novices’ Chase ALAND ISLANDS was brilliant on his chase debut at Newcastle and with McCoy in the saddle, looks very hard to oppose. I was so impressed with his jumping, where he was quick and accurate, gaining ground on his opponents, before easily pulling clear. This will be tougher as Stormy Weather and Ulysse Collonges have both also impressed over fences, but Aland Islands was a decent hurdler and looks sure to achieve greater things over fences, so can’t be opposed. 1:55 SANDOWN - Markel Insurance Henry VIII Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) – Sandown, Saturday 8th December The recent history of the race suggests that horses aged four or five are the ones to follow. They have won six of the last ten renewals including five consecutive successes between 2005 and 2009. There are three representatives from this age group in the field this year, Captain Conan and Third Intention both representing the five-year-olds and Hinterland flying the flag for the four-year-old generation. However as Al Ferof’s victory last year shows, six-year-olds can win this race so supporters of Act Of Kalanisi and Escort Men should not be too disheartened. Al Ferof’s hard fought victory last year meant that three of the last ten winners have won the November Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham before following up here. Nicky Henderson’s Captain Conan took that prize this year and will be hoping to follow in the footsteps of Thisthatandtother, Fair Along and Al Ferof, who all achieved the double. Good recent form is almost essential for potential victors as nine of the last ten winners had all finished in the first two on their most recent start. Of this year’s field, Act Of Kalanisi won at Leicester in November, Captain Conan won the afore mentioned November Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham and Hinterland was second at Exeter at the beginning of last month. This means that Third Intention and Escort Men both miss the cut following their third and sixth-placed finishes respectively. Due to the fact that all of these horses are relatively inexperienced over fences, previous form over hurdles can often be a good guide to the level at which they will compete over timber. There are three Graded hurdle winners in the field this year, Captain Conan won the Grade1 Tolworth Hurdle on his British debut, Third Intention won the Grade 2 Spirit Hurdle at Fontwell and Hinterland was successful in Grade 2 company when winning the Triumph Hurdle Trial. This hurdles form suggests that these are the three horses to beat as long as they can successfully transfer their form to the larger obstacles. The trainer currently holding a license with the best record in the race is the master of Ditcheat Paul Nicholls. Al Ferof gave him a fourth win in the race last year and he will be hoping that this year’s challenger Hinterland can do something similar. He has consistently sent out serious contenders for this race and I see no reason why this year should be any different. The final factor worthy of consideration is that all of the last ten winners have come from the first two in the betting. It is currently too early to say what the market will look like at 1:55 on Saturday but it is worth taking this final observation into account before the off. Shortlist Captain Conan Hinterland Conclusion As I have discussed, the November Novices’ Chase has been a useful trial for this race in the last few years. CAPTAIN CONAN bids to follow up here and build on his impressive chasing debut last month. The five-year-old gelding won the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown and although this was over hurdles there is plenty of reason to think that this form can be transferred to the bigger obstacles. This being the case he looks set for an exciting campaign in the novice chase division with many prizes likely to lie ahead. The most likely challenger to the Cheltenham winner is Paul Nicholls’ Hinterland, whose trainer as I have already mentioned has plenty of previous form in this department. He looked a classy hurdler when winning the Triumph Hurdle Trial last season and whilst he had a fair campaign after that, he never really lived up to his initial success. He was beaten on his chasing debut last month but is entitled to come on for that and considering the form of the yard at the minute looks likely to put up a bold show. Betfred Becher Chase – 2:10 - Aintree, Saturday 8th December With seven of the last ten winners aged nine or older, and only six winners younger than nine since 1992, this is not the race to be taking a chance on a younger participant. In this year’s field the trio of Join Together, Ballyvesey and Problema Tic are all looking to emulate Silver Birch who won this race aged seven in 2004. The six-year-old Problema Tic faces an even stiffer task given that there has not been a winner of this age since the race was first run in 1992. Perhaps one of the reasons for the limited success of younger runners is that they often have limited experience over the bigger obstacles. Only three of the last ten winners had run in less than 10 chases prior to lining up here and two of today’s field also fall into this category, Paul Nicholls’ Join Together has only had six starts over fences and Problema Tic has had only five. Taking this into account as well as the age trend, I would be happy to rule both of these out at this stage. Race fitness is something that can also play a big part in this race given the 3m 2f trip and the soft ground that runners are likely to encounter. This is backed up the fact that seven of the last ten winners had a previous run under their belt during the current season. Only Big Fella Thanks and Minella Theatre will be making their seasonal debuts on Saturday, with the rest of the field all having had a run this season. Whilst a pipe opener can be an advantage, the trends suggest that more than one run during the current season can have its pitfalls. Eight of the last ten winners had no more than one run to their name during the season which eliminates six of the field for Saturday’s race. It is difficult to say why this is the case but given the strength of the trend there would have to doubts surrounding the chances of Swing Bill, Mumbles Head, Any Currency, Fabalu, Hello Bud and Ballyvesey. Nigel Twiston-Davies is the most successful trainer in this race with four victories to his name courtesy of Indian Tonic (1993), Young Hustler (1995), Earth Summit (1998) and Hello Bud (2010). He saddles Hello Bud again this year at the age of 14 but as we have discussed he would be up against it having run twice since April, although the first of these was at the beginning of June. Paul Nicholls also has a good record in the race and saddles Join Together but given his age and relative inexperience it would be difficult to see him adding to the tally of three wins his trainer currently has. With only two winning favourites in the last decade, there is plenty of reason to be optimistic when opposing the market leaders. An average winning SP of around 12/1 also supports this idea as well as the fact that only half of the horses sent off favourite have finished in the first four. It would therefore be wise to factor in the poor record of those towards the head of the market when narrowing down the shortlist. Shortlist Big Fella Thanks (Ballabriggs) (West End Rocker) (Poker De Sivola) Conclusion Poker De Sivola showed he still retained plenty of ability when winning the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown in April. He was ridden in an attempt to hold him up on that occasion and similar waiting tactics could prove fruitful in Saturday’s race. He has plenty of stamina and despite unseating in the Scottish National, this was the first time he had fallen or unseated since he was a novice. He will be fit and providing he shows his best form, he would not be far away at the finish. Ballabriggs needs little introduction having won the Grand National here in 2011. Last season saw him have one prep run at Kelso before finishing sixth behind Neptune Collonges in this year’s race. He seems to enjoy running round Aintree and his jumping is not something that would cause any concern for punters. He will be primed for the race and as we know horses with previous experience around Aintree tend to do well here. He carries top weight but he did the same at Aintree in April and with these fences appearing to bring out the best in him, he is worth a place on the shortlist. West End Rocker won this race in impressive style last year and carries only 2lb more than he did in that renewal. He was an early faller in the Grand National in April although that is not to say that his jumping is something to be concerned about. In fact the only occasions on which he fell or unseated were in his two attempts in the National. He will have blown a few cobwebs away with his third placed finish behind The Package at Wincanton and despite looking a likely market leader, a similar performance to last year would put him thereabouts at the finish. BIG FELLA THANKS unseated on his return to action here in October on his first run for his new trainer Tom George. He finished seventh behind Ballabriggs in the 2011 Grand National as well as fourth behind Don’t Push It in 2009, showing a liking to the fences and his Grade 3 victory over 2m4f showed he has plenty of speed. He is entitled to have come on for his reappearance having been off the track for more than a year and looks likely to be in contention from the elbow at Aintree to the winning post. Sporting Bet Tingle Creek Steeple Chase (Grade 1) – Sandown 3:05 Saturday 8th December With six of the last ten winners aged between five and seven, these look to be the age-group to follow. They have three representatives this year which include the market leader Sprinter Sacre, the second favourite Sanctuaire and Alan King’s five-year-old Kumbeshwar. Last year Sizing Europe became only the fourth nine-year-old winner in the race’s history, following in the footsteps of Desert Orchid and Moscow Flyer but given the quality of these names it would be difficult to see Idarah becoming the fifth this year. One that can be taken off the shortlist is Kinkeel, who at the age of thirteen is attempting to become the oldest winner of the race after Moscow Flyer won at the age of 10 in 2004 Paul Nicholls has dominated the Tingle Creek in the last decade, winning seven of the last ten including six consecutive victories between 2005 and 2010. He also saddled Flagship Uberalles, who won the 1999 renewal. His stable also sent out Azertyuiop to finish second to Moscow Flyer on two occasions and Kauto Stone chased home Sizing Europe last year for the Ditcheat yard. This year Sanctuaire and Doeslessthanme fly the flag for the stable and will be looking to add to the excellent record that their trainer has. Of the rest of this year’s runners, none of their trainers have previously saddled a winner of the Tingle Creek. This is not to suggest that their chances are lessened by this statistic but the record of Paul Nicholls is certainly something worth taking notice of. Sizing Europe once again strengthened the pattern of horses winning the Tingle Creek after competing in either the Queen Mother Champion Chase or the Arkle Chase at the previous seasons Cheltenham Festival. He won the former before winning here and given that these races attract the leading two mile chasers at the festival, it would be no surprise to see another festival winner go close again this year. This year Sprinter Sacre arrives here on the back of a devastating display in the Arkle, where he beat subsequent Haldon Gold Cup winner Cue Card by seven lengths. Many will be expecting a similar performance on his return to action and given how others have performed following Cheltenham success, this trend could be further strengthened. When weighing up likely winners of Grade 1 events it usually pays to side with the tried and tested top-class performers. When Kauto Star won this for the first time in 2005 he became the first horse since 1990 to do so without previously having landed a Grade 1 event, which stresses the importance of proven class especially as Kauto Star’s subsequent achievements means we can more or less ignore his victory as he was a Grade 1 winner waiting to happen. In this year’s field only Nicky Henderson’s Sprinter Sacre has recorded a victory at the top level, meaning that the rest have something to find in Grade 1 company. A top two finish on their most recent start is something that nine of the last ten winners have had on their resume. This trend accounts for most of the field this year, only the four-year-old His Excellency, who finished fifth last time must be taken out of the equation on this basis. It usually pays to stick with the fancied runners in Grade 1 contests and the Tingle Creek is no exception. The average winning SP for the last decade is 9/4 and six of the last ten winners were sent off favourite. It is also worth noting that the winner has always come from the first three in the betting during the time frame in question, suggesting backing outsiders is not a wise move. Currently Sprinter Sacre is the market leader followed by Sanctuaire with the rest of the field available at much bigger prices. Therefore due to the strength of the betting trend, it looks foolish to look past the first two in the betting. Shortlist Sprinter Sacre Sanctuaire Conclusion Paul Nicholls’ Sanctuaire will be trying to add to his trainer’s tally of eight wins in the race and given that he looks set to be second-favourite with the punters, he could be more than capable. He is currently unbeaten over fences and his final victory of last year was an electrifying success in the Grade 2 Celebration Chase here at Sandown. The fact that he is yet to record a Grade 1 success is a slight concern but the way in which he won in Grade 2 company suggests he would not have much to find and his previous experience around here could well come into play. His main challenger looks sure to be SPRINTER SACRE, who is arguably one of the most exciting two-mile chasers we have seen in recent times and whose return to action has been highly anticipated since we last saw him in April. His connections think the world of him and they will be hoping that he can add his name to the list of great horses that have won this prize over the years. 3:20 Aintree – Betfred Goals Galore Grand Sefton Handicap Chase LITTLE JOSH is usually a really good jumper and ran well for a long way over the National fences last April. His handicap mark of 143 looks fair, especially when you consider it is three pounds lower than when winning the Paddy Power Gold Cup. I can see him running very well from the front in this and with many of his rivals running from out of the handicap, he has been presented with a good chance of victory. Nigel Twiston-Davies has a decent record with runners over the big fences and on ground that suits, he should go close.