ELO & Poisson rating system

[giraldi]

I have some experience on betting and stats and I would like to present you my strategy based on my own rating system. Description of the system I have at my disposal 35 European leagues with results for at least 5 seasons. Unfortunately I don-t have the odds but for 12 main leagues England 1,2,3,4 Italy Spain France and Germany first 2 leagues for each. Each team started with an value of 2000 points 3 seasons ago and depending on their results, according an ELO formula (a little bit modified) they won or lost points. Than for a given game I calculate the probabilities. This probability is than affected by the probability calculated with poison formula. for the past few games at home respectively away. In my opinion this correction will highlight recent form. After that I apply few more correction to take into account the type of the game for example - big local derby, ...etc I work to improve this correction to take into account more and more facts. For example I noticed that the games rescheduled have a different pattern than normal games and so on The final step is to compare my probabilities with the odds given by pinnacle to study a little bit head to head the teams to see what is about ( I will never pass to robots my money :) ) Next step is to include the real facts as - missing offensive or defensive good players -will affect with ? percent and so on I tested for my self this system and the results are encouraging. Last month (November) I tested on another forum with yield + 15% and 105 units invested. I can easy prove that. Staking plan Initial bank=100 units 1 unit for each bet. Last month were around 10 bets / day on weekend and maximum 1-2 on the other days I do not recommend to play real money yet I am open to any discussion about my rating. I do not believe in Santa Claus. I know I am not he first who try this but my results are as I have said encouraging. English is not my native language. I have already use all the English words I know :). I will try to show you good bets and good results.

[chikilicuatre]

Re: ELO & Poisson rating system Good morning, can I ask what is your native language? I'm Spanish. Thanks and Luck