Draws Method

[whoneedsrio]

I've been looking at the Draws for profit thread by Drawsandmore with a bit of interest, I like to back draws myself & I've been working on a method for a while now which is showing a bit of promise. For the last couple of months of last season I was only doing the English leagues but from the start of this season I've expanded that to include the Scottish divisions as well. After letting August pass to allow teams to get up to match speed I've been rating these games since the start of September. There's a minimum rating which I set & in that time there have been 40 matches to achieve this minimum mark, 14 of these games have ended up as draws (35%) If I increase the rating level to give less selections I've had 4 draws from 9 (44.4%) but of course this is only a small sample & it gives less than one selection per week (12 weeks so far) on average. Not only is the sample too small to say if the higher strike rate can be maintained but it's a fair amount of work to get less than a selection a week on average. I'm also working on another angle which keeps the minimum rating but adds another tweak & with this I've had 5 draws from 9 (55.5%) again a small sample. I must add that there are 3 matches which met both criteria, 2 of which were draws so I suppose you could say that if put both these together that it could be 7 from 15 (46.66%) or 9 from 18 (50%) I would say if you double stake on the common selections it would be the latter. I have been working over the last few days on imputing the required data for the French, German, Italian & Spanish top divisions into Excel & I am now ready to add these four leagues to the English, including the Blue Sq Premier & the Scottish leagues which should give something like 5 or 6 bets a week. As most league fixtures are spread over the weekend I call the Monday games the end of the week & therefore the week starts Tuesday. I can usually finish adding the Friday to Sunday results for Monday which leaves just a few to do Tuesday at which point I'm ready to go again. Based on the 35% strike rate I would have the possible longest losing run at around 12. I times this by 3 to add a bit of a safety net which is 36 & I'll go at 10pts a bet level stakes so a 360pt bank. I have 6 games for this week, spread across the weekend, because the odds will change very little I can get them on well in advance which is another advantage as my time tends to get taken up by the racing on Saturdays. Friday Dusseldoff v Hamburg 10pts @ 12/5 BetVictor. Saturday Sunderland v WBA 10pts @ 12/5 Stan James. Stoke v Fulham 10pts @ 12/5 Skybet. Wolves v Forest 10pts @ 12/5 Skybet. Palermo v Catania 10pts @ 9/4 Coral. Sunday Toulouse v lyon 10pts @ 11/5 BetVictor. ​Rio.

[AFK7]

Re: Draws Method Like your picks but you will never ge more than 31/32% strike no matter how selective you are. Good luck ps A small sample is 1000 games!

[Drawsandmore]

Re: Draws Method Good luck with your system Rio, it sounds pretty good to me, and I will be watching your progress with interest...Especially as one of your Saturday bets is also one of mine! :hope

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Draws Method It's fair to say that wasn't the best of starts:eyes I've had at least one draw in 10 of the 12 weeks so far & the two blank weeks only had one selection each so none from six is more than a little disappointing & the curse of "putting it down in black & white" strikes again. Not to worry, winners & losers come in clusters & it's early days. Wins/selections 0/6 start bank 360pts current bank 300pts (-16.66%) Stats all updated & ready to go again but it shows how up & down this might be, I have three games Tues/Weds but it looks like nothing at all at the weekend unless the midweek games in the EPL, Championship & Bundesliga change things before then. There are less games to go at because it's the FA Cup in both England & Scotland & I'm only dealing with league games but I would have thought I might have had a game or two to go at, any way... Tuesday Wolves v Millwall 10pts @ 5/2 Skybet. Aberdeen v ICT 10pts @ 5/2 Skybet. Wednesday Stoke v Newcastle 10pts @ 5/2 Skybet. ​Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Draws Method Three more no draws to continue the poor start. I've updated this weeks games & as suspected it's a blank weekend which is a bit of a surprise, I'd have expected a game or two but as said it is FA Cup weekend so maybe not. Wins/selections 0/9 start bank 360pts current bank 270pts (-25%) Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Draws Method After last weekend with no selections there are five games this time & all are on Saturday. Aston Villa v Stoke 10pts @ 11/5 Bet365 Swansea v Norwich 10pts @ 27/10 BetVictor Preston v Crewe 10pts @ 11/4 Skybet Motherwell v Ross Co 10pts @ 5/2 Skybet Troyes v Nice 10pts @ 11/5 BetVictor ​Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Draws Method Off the mark at last with two in from five. I was at Aintree yesterday & set off back home with radio five on for the second half of the games. It wasn't looking too good at that point with Norwich three up at Swansea, Crewe in front at Preston & Motherwell had just gone in front early in the second half. Only Villa/Stoke was level & it was quite amusing listening the reporter at Villa park slowly losing the will to live every time they went to him for an update. At one point he said that watching the game was "Slightly better than going to the dentist for root canal work" Suddenly though things got interesting, Swansea got back to 2-3 & Ross Co equalized, game on... Crewe went three up & then down at Swansea the home team had one disallowed which the guy on the radio though was harsh. I have to say after watching MOTD last night I'd agree, ah well. In the space of five minutes the wheels came off with Norwich going two clear & Motherwell leading again. Near the end I thought the game had gone away at Villa park as well but it was only a sending off. Passed the time on though on the drive back home. Just to show it can go your way late on, Nice got a very late goal in the 1-1 in France in the evening kick off. So... 50pts staked returns 64pts on the day. Wins/selections 2/14 (14%) start bank 360pts current bank 284pts (-21%) Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Draws Method Five games to go at this week the first of which is in France on Thursday. That game is the last of a full set of Ligue 1 fixtures spread across yesterday, tonight & Thursday which may effect the weekend games. The five games so far are interesting in that three of them have the added tweak that I mentioned earlier & are the first ones to do so since I started posting. There is also one game which achieves the higher rating & I should have noted that I had one of these in the 14 games already posted, it was not a draw. The higher rated game also has the added tweak which makes it the first double qualifier since I first posted, there have been three before, two of which were drawn. These then are the games with the added info for the higher rated & tweaked games, I'll separate them out in the returns after this batch. Thursday Bordeaux v St Etienne 10pts @ 23/10 BetVictor. Saturday QPR v Fulham (tweak) 10pts @ 12/5 BetVictor. Stoke v Everton (tweak) 10pts @ 23/10 Skybet. Blackpool v Blackburn (higher/tweak) 10pts @ 13/5 BetVictor. Monday Reading v Arsenal 10pts @ 31/10 BetVictor. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Draws Method Two from five from the last set of bets, the last one being Reading remembering to turn up after about 70 mins last night. Spent yesterday number crunching & today was taken up with a trip to Catterick, don't ask:eyes So I'll do the full numbers later, probably tomorrow because there's one game this evening. Brighton v Millwall 10pts @ 5/2 BetVictor ​Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Draws Method A late penalty for Brighton squares up the game against Millwall & makes it three from six for that last batch of games. 60pts staked with 101 pts returned, moving in the right direction then. Wins/Selections 5/20 (25%) Staked 200pts Returns 165pts (-17.5%) Start bank 360pts Current bank 325pts (-10%) The Germans are into their Xmas/Winter break & the numbers I'm getting from Spain have yet to throw anything up, although the Espanyol/Deportivo game on Thursday is as close as I've come. Nothing from France or Italy this weekend either but there are three in England on Saturday. Rio.

[chikilicuatre]

Re: Draws Method Good morning whoneedsrio, I'm doing a similar system. Have you tried to simulate past seasons? Greetings.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Draws Method

I'm doing a similar system. Have you tried to simulate past seasons?

No it's something I'd dabbled with in the past but because of time constraints I couldn't keep up to on an ongoing basis never mind the work needed to work back. Now I find myself with more time & I started looking at the English leagues again early this year & then added the Scottish games from this season although I'm starting to think that the work involved there has not really been worth it. As I said in my last post the Spanish league is not looking promising either but the main time taken is on the initial database & to update each weeks results takes around ten minutes per league so a two to three hour session can see me keep in front. I'll keep going along, feeling my way as I do so & it may be I weed out some of the weaker leagues in time. Thanks for the interest. Rio.

[chikilicuatre]

Re: Draws Method Good morning again, From my perspective, I encourage you to continue with the strategy, and try to analyze past seasons. Filter by quotas, set ranges, etc. I tell you the tie out profitable in the Spanish second division. My English is very bad, sorry, I hope that we can understand. If I can help you, let me know. A greeting.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Draws Method

Good morning again, From my perspective, I encourage you to continue with the strategy, and try to analyze past seasons. Filter by quotas, set ranges, etc. I tell you the tie out profitable in the Spanish second division. My English is very bad, sorry, I hope that we can understand. If I can help you, let me know. A greeting.

Thanks, I may do a bit of research in the New Year when I may have a bit of time. There were three games today but the match at Gateshead is off, that leaves... West Ham v Everton 10pts @ 12/5 Stan James Oxford v Fleetwood 10pts @ 12/5 Ladbrokes. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Draws Method The Oxford game was off which just left West Ham/Everton with the chances spoiled somewhat by some dodgy decisions from the ref. Wins/Selections 5/21 (24%) Staked 210pts Returns 165pts (-21%) Start bank 360pts Current bank 315pts (-12.5%) Two today. Dundee Utd v St Johnstone 10pts @ 12/5 Stoke v Liverpool 10pts @ 23/10 both Betfred Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Draws Method Didn't expect a goal fest at Stoke, however the other game copped so 34pts back from 20pts staked. Wins/Selections 6/23 (26%) Staked 230pts Returns 199pts (-13.5%) Start bank 360pts Current bank 329pts (-9%) Bit of a mad scramble to do the numbers before the weekend. Rio.

[chikilicuatre]

Re: Draws Method Good day whoneedsrio, The DRAW has an approximate pick of 3.30 .. With some extra condition, if it's any guide. Regards and Happy Holidays

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Draws Method Five games for the weekend. Saturday Barnsley v Blackburn 10pts @ 12/5 BetVictor. Nuneaton v Alfreton 10pts @ 13/5 BetVictor. Ross Co v Hearts 10pts @ 12/5 Ladbrokes. Sunday QPR v Liverpool 10pts @ 14/5 BetVictor. Dundee Utd v St Mirren 10pts @ 13/5 Ladbrokes. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Draws Method Two games off so none from three. Wins/Selections 6/26 (23%) Staked 260pts Returns 199pts (-23.5%) Start bank 360pts Current bank 299pts (-17%) Bit of a scramble to get updated for tomorrow. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Draws Method Just the one midweek game & with the 3rd round of the cup at weekend it's likely that there won't be much from the numbers. I do like a go at the cup on 3rd round day though so we'll see. Port Vale v Fleetwood 10pts @ 13/5 BetVictor. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Draws Method Nothing from the New Years Day game. Wins/Selections 6/27 (22%) Staked 270pts Returns 199pts (-26%) Start bank 360pts Current bank 289pts (-20%) As suspected not a lot to go at this weekend with just the one game up in Scotland. Cowdenbeath v Morton 10pts @ 3/1 Bet365. Rio.

[jd_fortune]

Re: Draws Method I don't know about betting on draws. Looking at the charts it seems that the average is around 1 in 3 for all teams except the very top one or two and very bottom ones. Otherwise it's pretty random as to which teams get less or more than that. It doesn't appear to have much connection to the team's standing in the charts. Stoke was in the middle and got 11 out of 21 while several below and above them got 3 or so. I don't think draw percentages can be accurately enough predicted to be profitable for any great length of time. Other factors are much more predictable, like number of goals or win/lose. The fact that 0-0 is a tie probably messes things up a lot. Even a bad team can go 0-0 against a good team rather easily, while it's doubtful they would get many 3-3 or 4-4 ties. Maybe your system would be better if you concentrated on betting against such mismatched teams getting those high score ties, though I'm sure the odds would be quite high so it would be costly if you ever did lose. Maybe 2-2 ties would be a better one to concentrate on. They are rare enough that a fairly minor variation between bookmaker odds and true odds would be profitable. I don't think they're going to be off by much on the 0-0 and 1-1 ties because they happen frequently enough to be able to average them out quite accurately. There's going to be a lot more variation when you get up to 2-2 and 3-3.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Draws Method

I don't know about betting on draws. Looking at the charts it seems that the average is around 1 in 3 for all teams except the very top one or two and very bottom ones. Otherwise it's pretty random as to which teams get less or more than that. It doesn't appear to have much connection to the team's standing in the charts. Stoke was in the middle and got 11 out of 21 while several below and above them got 3 or so. I don't think draw percentages can be accurately enough predicted to be profitable for any great length of time. Other factors are much more predictable, like number of goals or win/lose. The fact that 0-0 is a tie probably messes things up a lot. Even a bad team can go 0-0 against a good team rather easily, while it's doubtful they would get many 3-3 or 4-4 ties. Maybe your system would be better if you concentrated on betting against such mismatched teams getting those high score ties, though I'm sure the odds would be quite high so it would be costly if you ever did lose. Maybe 2-2 ties would be a better one to concentrate on. They are rare enough that a fairly minor variation between bookmaker odds and true odds would be profitable. I don't think they're going to be off by much on the 0-0 and 1-1 ties because they happen frequently enough to be able to average them out quite accurately. There's going to be a lot more variation when you get up to 2-2 and 3-3.

I read this several times last evening & I have to say it had me scratching my head somewhat, anyway having read it again this morning... The charts or league tables have nothing whatsoever to do with it, how I arrive at the selections is based on the form of the teams over a set number games. The latest result is added at the end of the sequence & the one at the beginning drops out so it's based on recent form. If you look at just the league table you do not get the true picture, it might well be that a team have drawn 10 of 20 matches for example, however it could be that 8 or 9 of those draws were in the first 10 games & 1 or 2 were in the last 10, or the other way round for that matter. Unless your backing on unders/overs the number of goals in a game doesn't matter to me, I'm backing the draw full stop, 0-0 is as good as 1-1, 2-2 or 10-10 for that matter. Why on earth would I want to lay high scoring draws? Depending on the match odds I would be laying a 2-2 draw at between something like 14 to 33/1, shell out 14 to 33 points to win 1, no thanks. Bookmakers odds & true odds. You can take the term "true odds" in two ways for me. First having studied the event, in this case a football match, you decide what you think the odds for the game should be. You then look at the odds offered by the bookie & if he's going longer on an outcome than you think it should be you bet. This is the value argument that everything has a true price, the problem is that it subjective, my idea of a value price will differ from yours & the bookie, the latter is also driven by market forces, if a certain outcome is heavily backed he will cut the odds. Secondly, the true odds for any event are one less than the number of outcomes, if you toss a coin there can be two results, heads or tails so the true odds are evens, unless the coin is bent this is an indisputable fact. A 90 minute football match can result in a win for either team or a draw, the true odds for a game are therefore 2/1. The football match though is influenced by other factors, the relative strengths of the two teams, current form, home advantage etc. The fact is though that if you look at a game & it seems to be evenly matched you will almost always get a value price on the draw from the bookie. Take next weekends Arsenal v Man City game. You can back Arsenal at 17/10 & City at 7/4, the bookies can hardly split them but the draw can be backed at 12/5, better than the 2/1 true odds. I'm not saying this is a game from my method or that I fancy the draw, just that the collective brains of the odds compilers can't split them & therefore, to me anyway, the draw could be the value option. This happens week in week out, the average punter though doesn't want to back the draw, psychologically he is wanting to get off the fence & pick a winner. Sit with a few mates discussing the Arsenal/City game & watch the looks of contempt you get when you say you fancy a draw, whimp. The bookies know this that's why you will never get 2/1+ about a win in this sort of game, this to me though suggests that there may be an advantage to the backer in that the draw can offer value. Anyway enough of that, Cowdenbeath & Morton ended up 1-1 & at 3/1 that will do for me. Wins/Selections 7/28 (25%) Staked 280pts Returns 239pts (-15%) Start bank 360pts Current bank 319pts (-11%) Rio.

[JJG]

Re: Draws Method Gone for genoa v bologna today to draw @ 21/10 PP

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Draws Method

Gone for genoa v bologna today to draw @ 21/10 PP

As a fancy I can see why you've gone for that, however it's nowhere near on my numbers. Good Luck though. Rio.

[giraldi]

Re: Draws Method

Unless your backing on unders/overs the number of goals in a game doesn't matter to me, I'm backing the draw full stop, 0-0 is as good as 1-1, 2-2 or 10-10 for that matter. Why on earth would I want to lay high scoring draws? Depending on the match odds I would be laying a 2-2 draw at between something like 14 to 33/1, shell out 14 to 33 points to win 1, no thanks. .

You have a great experience and I have to admit that I learned a lot from your posts. Thank you for that. Anyway I think your approach is correct, but on the same time let me present another point of view. My opinion is that you should be highly interested in the number of goals possibly to be scored. If it is too high is better to drop the game even for perfectly identical teams. The bigger is the number of goals (points) scored in a game the lower is the probability for the draw. There are few math calculations but I am sure it is not necessary. Please consider hokey, handball or basket games for instance. How many games are draw? The bigger is the probability for high number of goals in the football game the lowest is the probability for the draw. Imagine just 4 goals scored on very open game between 2 teams with exactly the same value (game is candidate for the draw? ). I think that probability for the draw is very low. Attack players on the best form? Defense players on the worst form? Many goals. Bad news for The Draw hunters and big arguments to avoid to bet. Just my opinion. Keep up your good strategy!

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Draws Method

You have a great experience and I have to admit that I learned a lot from your posts. Thank you for that. Anyway I think your approach is correct, but on the same time let me present another point of view. My opinion is that you should be highly interested in the number of goals possibly to be scored. If it is too high is better to drop the game even for perfectly identical teams. The bigger is the number of goals (points) scored in a game the lower is the probability for the draw. There are few math calculations but I am sure it is not necessary. Please consider hokey, handball or basket games for instance. How many games are draw? The bigger is the probability for high number of goals in the football game the lowest is the probability for the draw. Imagine just 4 goals scored on very open game between 2 teams with exactly the same value (game is candidate for the draw? ). I think that probability for the draw is very low. Attack players on the best form? Defense players on the worst form? Many goals. Bad news for The Draw hunters and big arguments to avoid to bet. Just my opinion. Keep up your good strategy!

Interesting point about the higher scoring games being less likely to draw. In the Racing and Football Outlook they do a scores so far table & I've been doing a bit of totting up. If we take 2 goals & under as low scoring games & 4 goals & over are high scoring games the English (includes Conference) & Scottish leagues give the following.... There were 761 games with 2 or less goals, of these 301 finished 0-0 or 1-1 which is 39.5% The results table only goes up to 4-4 with anything over this put in as others, such as Chelsea/Villa 8-0. I can't remember a 5-5, 6-6 etc & I'm not delving back for whats only a small sample anyway, so.... 592 games had 4 or more goals, of these 141 finished 2-2, 3-3 or 4-4 which is 24% It would seem then you are correct, the more goals scored the less likely the draw. Food for thought indeed, now I need to see how I can predict the games that are possible low scoring affairs & then tie them into the method to see where that leads. Many thanks, Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Draws Method I've been doing a spot of research into trying to spot these low scoring games & to see if I could tie them into the method. The RFO do a true odds spread & each game has a forecast for total goals. The range is from around two up to around four goals & they list the games that are lowest & highest for the unders & overs market (2.5 goals) Not a lot of success I'm afraid with not many draws at all from that source. I then thought about teams with a strong defence. I take the form from the last eight homes for the home team & last eight for the away team, what if I take the games where both sides have let in less than a goal a game in their last eight? The good news is that taking the games I have had & checking back for skinny defences I end up with an 80% strike rate :eek The bad news is I only have five games :lol It actually looked quite promising with one from two in week one & one from a single selection in weeks two, four & five with a blank in week three. I could live with that, one game a week with an 80% strike rate, the trouble is week six up to week 19 have no selections at all & this weeks sole qualifier doesn't fit the low score idea either. 15 weeks without a selection, back to the drawing board methinks. While I try & work something out I'll just carry on as before, so... Sunday Preston v Walsall 10pts @ 5/2 Ladbrokes. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Draws Method Nothing from Preston/Walsall. Wins/Selections 7/29 (24%) Staked 290pts Returns 239pts (-17.5%) Start bank 360pts Current bank 309pts (-14%) The Germans are back this week so all four Euro leagues are back in business, at the moment there looks to be four games for this weekend coming, one in France & three in England but the cold snap might chuck a spanner in the works. Rio.

[whoneedsrio]

Re: Draws Method One game off so three left across the weekend starting today with... Swansea v Stoke 10pts @ 12/5 Sky. Sunday we have... Bordeaux v Paris SG 10pts @ 12/5 Coral. Monday.... Southampton v Everton 10pts @ 13/5 BetVictor. The confidence on the last game is somewhat diminished by the ludicrous decision to sack Nigel Adkins. On recent form they are a mid table side, he hadn't lost the dressing room & had the crowd fully behind him. Now you've got a new manager who will want to get his own way of playing across but who can't speak English, the crowd will be straight on his back & the players have likely taken the hump. In fact if they had anything about them the lot of them should have put in a transfer request on mass. Rio.