NFL Week 12 Picks

[Crouch Potato]

Tony Romo Over 295.5 Passing Yards @ 1.83 Bet365 Washington have the 4th worst passing defence in the league and have in their first 7 games this season opposing QBs have exceeded this total. It is true that the last 3 games the Skins have played the opposition QB hasn't reached this total, but I think that can be explained easily in 2 instances. Last week their opposing QB was Nick Foles -- he is a rookie and it was his first game as a starter; the fact he didn't pass for 296+ yards isn't a surprise. Another instance was when they lose by 15pts to the Steelers. Pittsburgh lead early and killed the clock with Jonathan Dwyer. Now if we consider the situation at Dallas, I think this becomes an even better bet. Demarco Murray is out; Felix Jones is banged up and will be a game time decision. If this is true, they are hardly going to get Lance Dunbar to tote the rock 20 times when they have a QB like Romo and receivers like Dez, Miles and Witten. Once more, Dallas are not playing particularly well right now so I don't expect them to shoot to an early lead, particularly with RG3 so dynamic for the Skins. One real concern I have is that Romo hasn't bested this total in recent games against Washington, but I feel with the talent level of his receivers, the strong possibility that they'll be using their 3rd choice RB and the porous secondary play of Washington this year that this is a good value bet. As long as Dallas doesn't jump to and maintain a big, early lead then this bet will always have a very, very strong chance of success.

[kevshat]

Re: NFL Week 12 Picks Thanksgiving day previews: 4pts Houston (-3) to beat Detroit 5/6 Ladbrokes Despite conceding an avalanche of points to the Jaguars last week I expect the Houston Texans to be back to their best defensively this week and assuming that they are then I would expect them to win this match with a bit in hand. Even if this becomes a shootout we saw last week they have the weapons on offense to get the job done. Detroit have lost their last eight games on Thanksgiving and I think they will lose this one too. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/houston--detroit-betting-houston-can-get-back-to-dominating-sides-in-thanksgiving-opener 4pts Washington to beat Dallas 31/20 Boylesports In many ways this is a question of ‘do you trust this Dallas offense to deliver?’ if you do then you probably think they will win this but if you don’t then the 2.55 on the Redskins will be value. Washington can get the job done in the air or on the ground and I expect them to put up points in this match. Dallas have just struggled past the Browns needing overtime before winning but they may not be so lucky in this one. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/washington--dallas-betting-redskins-look-value-to-upset-the-cowboys-on-thanksgiving 4pts New England (-6.5) to beat New York Jets 10/11 Boylesports I think New England will win this match and win it a shade easily too. They have finally started clicking on offense and although Gronkowski will be missed Brady has plenty of weapons to pass to and the Patriots running game is looking a lot healthier these days too. The Jets struggle on offense when the pressure is on and if they fall a couple of scores behind early they will struggle to pull that back so I’m happy to take New England here. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/new-england--new-york-jets-betting-new-england-can-round-off-thanksgiving-day-with-big-win