NFL Week 12 Picks

[Crouch Potato]

Tony Romo Over 295.5 Passing Yards @ 1.83 Bet365 Washington have the 4th worst passing defence in the league and have in their first 7 games this season opposing QBs have exceeded this total. It is true that the last 3 games the Skins have played the opposition QB hasn't reached this total, but I think that can be explained easily in 2 instances. Last week their opposing QB was Nick Foles -- he is a rookie and it was his first game as a starter; the fact he didn't pass for 296+ yards isn't a surprise. Another instance was when they lose by 15pts to the Steelers. Pittsburgh lead early and killed the clock with Jonathan Dwyer. Now if we consider the situation at Dallas, I think this becomes an even better bet. Demarco Murray is out; Felix Jones is banged up and will be a game time decision. If this is true, they are hardly going to get Lance Dunbar to tote the rock 20 times when they have a QB like Romo and receivers like Dez, Miles and Witten. Once more, Dallas are not playing particularly well right now so I don't expect them to shoot to an early lead, particularly with RG3 so dynamic for the Skins. One real concern I have is that Romo hasn't bested this total in recent games against Washington, but I feel with the talent level of his receivers, the strong possibility that they'll be using their 3rd choice RB and the porous secondary play of Washington this year that this is a good value bet. As long as Dallas doesn't jump to and maintain a big, early lead then this bet will always have a very, very strong chance of success.

[kevshat]

Re: NFL Week 12 Picks Thanksgiving day previews: 4pts Houston (-3) to beat Detroit 5/6 Ladbrokes Despite conceding an avalanche of points to the Jaguars last week I expect the Houston Texans to be back to their best defensively this week and assuming that they are then I would expect them to win this match with a bit in hand. Even if this becomes a shootout we saw last week they have the weapons on offense to get the job done. Detroit have lost their last eight games on Thanksgiving and I think they will lose this one too. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/houston--detroit-betting-houston-can-get-back-to-dominating-sides-in-thanksgiving-opener 4pts Washington to beat Dallas 31/20 Boylesports In many ways this is a question of ‘do you trust this Dallas offense to deliver?’ if you do then you probably think they will win this but if you don’t then the 2.55 on the Redskins will be value. Washington can get the job done in the air or on the ground and I expect them to put up points in this match. Dallas have just struggled past the Browns needing overtime before winning but they may not be so lucky in this one. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/washington--dallas-betting-redskins-look-value-to-upset-the-cowboys-on-thanksgiving 4pts New England (-6.5) to beat New York Jets 10/11 Boylesports I think New England will win this match and win it a shade easily too. They have finally started clicking on offense and although Gronkowski will be missed Brady has plenty of weapons to pass to and the Patriots running game is looking a lot healthier these days too. The Jets struggle on offense when the pressure is on and if they fall a couple of scores behind early they will struggle to pull that back so I’m happy to take New England here. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/new-england--new-york-jets-betting-new-england-can-round-off-thanksgiving-day-with-big-win

[blackcrow]

Re: NFL Week 12 Picks Agree with your picks Kev :ok Houston -11.5 @ 4.35 sportsbet Houston will look to continue to have QB Schaub slinging the ball as he threw for 527 yards (5 TD and 2 INT) in the win over Jacksonville, and up against a Detroit secondary that has allowed 2 passing TDs in 7 of their 10 games, then like them to score some passing TDs here. Where they really should do well is in the run game as they have ran for 118+ yards in 7 of their 10 games while Detroit has allowed 127+ yards in 5 of their 10 games but to the likes of San Fran, Minnesota (twice), Chicago and Seattle, who are all run first type of teams. On defence, expect Houston to tighten up after allowing 37 points, especially 378 passing yars and 4 TDs. While Stafford will look to WR Johnson, he can be erratic, as he has 14 TDs to go with 10 INTs, and this Houston team has allowed just 7 TDs in 8 games (apart from 6 to Green Bay and 4 to Jacksonville last week). Also, teams like San Fran, Minnesota (twice), Chicago and Seattle who have good rush defences, they did not run for more than 100 yards, while Houston has only twice, in 10 games, allowed more than 100 rushing yards. Houston looks too good on both sides of the ball, and doubt that Detroit can stop their run, which should also open up the pass if they decide to bring a safety or two into the line Washington -4.5 @ 4.15 sportsbet Washington will look to their run game to lead them to a win here as they have ran for 129+ yards in 8 of their 10 games (at an average of 165 yards per game) while Dallas has allowed 103+ yards in 4 of their last 5 games. Though they do have some problems with moving the ball through the air, this Dallas secondary can be got it, especially if they bring the safety's up to stop the run. Dallas has various problems on offence, with a QB that is pretty inconsistent, not much of a running game, and an offensive line that has its share of injuries, so expect Washington to blitz often and force Romo into mistakes. The Redskins have allowed 222 passing yards or less in their last three games, so they can do the job there, while they have allowed less than 100 rushing yards in 7 of their 10 games (average of 95 yards per game) and with Dallas averaging 83 rushing yards per game, doubt that they do much on offence here New England -13.5 @ 3.02 sportsbet New England have a very good QB who has thrown for 21 TDs and just 3 INTs as opposed to the Jets QB who hass thrown 11 TDs and 9 INTs. Brady had 259 yards and 2 TDs in the 29-26 home win over the Jets last month while allowing 329 passing yards and 1 TD (with 1 INT), but the Patriots have added a run game to their offence that has ran for 115+ yards in 6 of their last 7 games, while the Jets have allowed 114+ yards in 7 of their 10 games. NY have also managed to run for 100+ yards in 4 of their last 5 games, and had 106 rushing yards in the loss to NE as they also allowed 131 rushing yards to them. While Brady has been reliable, Sanchez has not been, and in the end, the class of Brady should see them through Record: 24-55 (-12.87)

[vitalyo]

Re: NFL Week 12 Picks Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys 16:15 EST >>> Crouch Potato i like your Romo pick Over 295.5 Passing Yards , and i like it a lot ! Cowboys RB's banged up Murray out and Jones questionable (neither practiced) look for Romo to be throwing a whole lot. Ogletree out helps with receptions to Witten. 1) Tony Romo Total Passing Yards over 296.5 @ 1.91 williamhill max bet 10 units 2)Total pass completions made by Tony Romo Over 25 pass completions @1.85 thegreek.com max bet 10 units 3) Jason Witten Total Receiving Yards over 58.5 @ 1.91 williamhill max bet 10 units all 3 bets on top are related to my short write up . The line on Witten is wrong , bet365 has him at 65,5 -135 , thegreek.com at 68,5 -115 when it comes to NFL thegreek LINES are more accurate then UK books . 4) Total QB sacks in the game Over 4.5 Sacks @ 2.030 pinnacle max bet 10 units Without the running game Romo will have to spend an eternity in the pocket , more important the Cowboys O-line is also decimated with Centres Ryan and Costa out and LT Tyron Smith questionable also. This will lead to lots of sacks as we saw in last weeks game vs the Browns where Romo went down 7 times. New England Patriots @ New York Jets 20:20 EST 5) Mark Sanchez Total Passing Yards Over 224.5 @ 1.91 williamhill max bet 10 units 6) Dustin Keller Total Receiving Yards Over 44.5 @ 1.91 williamhill 6 units Reasoning: NE Pass D is ranked 30th, Sanchez threw for 328 yards in NE.Jets will most likely play from behind (spread tells you so) .Keller had 93 yards in previous meeting. Record: 0-0 Cheers GL. [TABLE=class: linesTbl]

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[AGurv]

Re: NFL Week 12 Picks ​NFL 2012-2013 Overall 24W-28L-3P -6.60 units (46.15%) Sigh.... Lions +3.5 to win 1 unit @ 5dimes Redskins +3.5 to win 1 unit @ 5dimes Patriots -6.5 to win 1 unit @ 5dimes

[vitalyo]

Re: NFL Week 12 Picks Willhill just moved the line/adjusted on Jason Witten Total Receiving Yards to 64.5

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NFL Week 12 Picks Brandon Lloyd Over 52.5 Receiving Yards @ 1.80 Bet365 With no Gronkowski there will be more targets to be shared and although Hernandez returns he's been out for a while and I can't see him playing his usual number of snaps. Welker and Edelman will get theirs but Lloyd is clearly the deep threat and he and OC Josh McDaniels have great rapport. In the absence of Brady's go to receiver I think McDaniels will look to Lloyd to pick up Gronkowski's slack in the passing game.

[vitalyo]

Re: NFL Week 12 Picks

1) Tony Romo Total Passing Yards over 296.5 @ 1.91 williamhill max bet 10 units WON [TABLE] [TR] [TH=class: player title]Dallas Cowboys[/TH] [TH]Comp[/TH] [TH]Att[/TH] [TH]Yds[/TH] [TH]Pct[/TH] [TH]Y/A[/TH] [TH]Sack[/TH] [TH]YdsL[/TH] [TH]TD[/TH] [TH]Int[/TH] [TH]Rating[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: player title]Tony Romo[/TD] [TD]37[/TD] [TD]62[/TD] [TD]441[/TD] [TD]59.7[/TD] [TD]7.1[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]18[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]84.1[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] 2)Total pass completions made by Tony Romo Over 25 pass completions @1.85 thegreek.com max bet 10 units WON [TABLE] [TR] [TH=class: player title]Dallas Cowboys[/TH] [TH]Comp[/TH] [TH]Att[/TH] [TH]Yds[/TH] [TH]Pct[/TH] [TH]Y/A[/TH] [TH]Sack[/TH] [TH]YdsL[/TH] [TH]TD[/TH] [TH]Int[/TH] [TH]Rating[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: player title]Tony Romo[/TD] [TD]37[/TD] [TD]62[/TD] [TD]441[/TD] [TD]59.7[/TD] [TD]7.1[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]18[/TD] [TD]3[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]84.1[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] 3) Jason Witten Total Receiving Yards over 58.5 @ 1.91 williamhill max bet 10 units WON [TABLE] [TR] [TD=class: player title]Jason Witten[/TD] [TD]9[/TD] [TD]15[/TD] [TD]74[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] 4) Total QB sacks in the game Over 4.5 Sacks @ 2.030 pinnacle max bet 10 units WON Sacks 2-4 total 6 5) Mark Sanchez Total Passing Yards Over 224.5 @ 1.91 williamhill max bet 10 units WON [TABLE] [TR] [TH=class: player title]New York Jets[/TH] [TH]Comp[/TH] [TH]Att[/TH] [TH]Yds[/TH] [TH]Pct[/TH] [TH]Y/A[/TH] [TH]Sack[/TH] [TH]YdsL[/TH] [TH]TD[/TH] [TH]Int[/TH] [TH]Rating[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: odd] [TD=class: player title]Mark Sanchez[/TD] [TD]26[/TD] [TD]36[/TD] [TD]301[/TD] [TD]72.2[/TD] [TD]8.4[/TD] [TD]2[/TD] [TD]15[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]1[/TD] [TD]94.8[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] 6) Dustin Keller Total Receiving Yards Over 44.5 @ 1.91 williamhill 6 units WOND. Keller 5 Rec, 64 yds, 1 TD [TABLE=class: linesTbl] [TR=class: linesColumns] [/TR] [TR=class: linesAlt3] [TD=class: linesAlt1][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

Big day for me . Next picks will be posted on sunday , and most of the time an hour prior to the game : in this order 13:00 EST games at 12:00 EST 16:00 EST games at 15:00 EST 20:20 EST game at 19:20 EST Reason: The weather ,unless the game is in the dome. You can kill player props with the bad weather .Networks are not always accurate with the forecast so i rather wait closer to the game time. Cheers GL. 6W-0L + 51.56 units

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: NFL Week 12 Picks Cracking night, Vitalyo :clap This play deserves a thread of it's own, hell possibly even a forum of it's own :rollin but won't annoy the non-NFL fans with it. http://cdn2.sbnation.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/3754069/stillbetterthancassel.0_standard_500.0.gif

[kevshat]

Re: NFL Week 12 Picks 4pts New Orleans vs San Francisco - Over 48pts 10/11 Skybet Two great sides who are both in good form do battle here and it isn’t easy to pick the winner. One thing I do expect to see is a lot of points and I’m quite surprised we are able to get on a points line as low as 48 as both sides have plenty of points in them. This San Francisco defence can be awesome but if they don’t get to Brees he has the ability to tear them apart and that gives me the belief this one will see at least 49pts. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/san-francisco--new-orleans-betting-points-can-come-readily-at-the-superdome-on-sunday-night

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NFL Week 12 Picks Superb tipping Vitalyo. Absolutely killed it! Well done to everyone who sided with the Skins. Mohammed Sanu Over 37.5 Yards @ 1.80 Bet365 Hawkins has missed 3 consecutive practices so I'd be very surprised if he suits up this week. In Hawkin's absence last week Sanu started and played the same number of snaps as AJ Green. He only got 22 yards from 2 catches and 4 looks but I still think this line has to be taken. Oakland give up over 250 yards passing per game and like all defences they will attempt to double team Green. With Gresham the 2nd option in the passing game I think Sanu will see a fair bit on one one coverage and given he'll like play 60+ snaps against the Oakland D, I think this line is just too short to ignore.

[Backbencher]

Re: NFL Week 12 Picks Carolina @ Philadelphia, Carolina -2.5, @1.91(bwin), 2/10 points Taking this line before it goes over the FG. Vick and McCoy will be out, they are still in phase 2 and 1 of the concussion protocol (out of 5), thus rookies Foles and Brown will start. Foles didn't look good at Washington, with a passer rating of 40 and out of sync with WRs (Maclin 0 y., Jackson 5) and TEs. Brown has only 32 carries this season and will have a tough time replacing one of the best RBs in the league. The OL is still crappy, the secondary cannot cover, a dead coach walking still calls the plays and the fans are against everybody in the organization. I'm not a big fan of Cam Newton, but this is a good spot for him and the team to get a win. Now that they are 2-8, they will try to win some meaningless games to end the season with a better record, exactly like they did last season (from 2-8 to 6-10). I guess Sean McDermott will have the defense, led by Kuechly, highly motivated for this game against his former team. I think the line will be at least -3.5 by kick-off, so I took it early. NFL 2012: 10-4, +12.38

[nbelinov]

NFL Week 12 picks hey guys post your picks for this upcoming weekend matchups in the NFL. I have to say one thing watch out for the Indianapolis Colts as they are sure going to beat weak Buffalo Bills, as well as an interesting matchup between a weak secondary by kansas city and a very good passing denver team. my picks Indianapolis Colts Denver Broncos both to win

[kevshat]

Re: NFL Week 12 Picks 4pts Green Bay to beat New York Giants 27/20 Ladbrokes The form of these two sides are very much chalk and cheese but despite that I can see this being an offensive game and in offensive matches it is often folly to go against the Green Bay Packers with their classy quarterback Aaron Rodgers. With the likes of Jordy Nelson back in the receiving core and Randall Cobb and James Jones providing good work too I think the Packers have enough to win what could well turn into a bit of a shootout. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/green-bay--new-york-giants-betting-green-bay-can-prevail-in-the-battle-of-the-last-two-superbowl-winners

[blackcrow]

Re: NFL Week 12 Picks

Houston -11.5 @ 4.35 :( Washington -4.5 @ 4.15 :ok New England -13.5 @ 3.02 :ok

Pittsburgh -9.5 @ 3.94 sportsbet Pittsburgh should have an easier time of it here as last week Baltimore edged them out, but this Cleveland defences is not as good. They have allowed 100+ rushing yards in 7 of their 10 games, and with the Steelers missing their two main QBs, then it is no secret that they will be running this ball all game. With Mendenhall back, he and Dwyer should be able to pick up some good yards here. On defence, Pittsburgh have allowed 200 passing yards or less in 7 of their 10 games, and allowed 100 rushing yards or less in 8 of their 10 games, and with this Cleveland offence not that good, with just one game of more than 250 passing yards in their last 5 games, and averaging 92 rushing yards per game, the Browns do not have enough to stay with Pittsburgh here Tennessee -9.5 @ 3.26 sportsbet Jacksonville have lost all five home games by at least 17 points, as they tend to keep it close when playing on the road. They have allowed at least 124 rushing yards in 8 of their 10 games, at an average of 137 yards per game, and expect RB Johnson, to do well here, as Tennessee have averaged 161 rushing yards per game in their last four games, prior to the bye. Now they are refresshed, and should be prepared for this game, The Jaguars do not have much of a run game to take advantage of the Titans poor run game, as they have ran for 86 yards or less in their last 7 games, and while Henne did well against Houston last week, once again, a rested and prepared Titans defence should be able to contain him here as they have allowed 284, 202, 225, 207 passing yards in their four away games this year. Tampa Bay -7.5 @ 4.60 sportsbet Tampa Bay have won 5 of their last 6 games since the bye as they have scored 16 passing TDs and given up just 3 INTs in these games, while they have also ran for 145+ yards in 4 of these 6 games, at an average of 154 yards per game. QB Freeman and RB Martin have been in very good form and like them to dominate this Atlanta defence that has given up 116+ rushing yards in 8 of their 10 games at an average of 131 yards per game. Atlanta will look to QB Ryan to bounce back as he threw 5 INTs last week, and TB have 9 INTs, as well as allowing 14 passing TDs in their last 6 games. Atlanta's running game has stalled as they have ran for 86 yards or less in 6 of their 10 games while TB have allowed 100+ yards in just 3 of their 10 games. TB's more balanced offence have looked very good of late while Atlanta will need to go with them to keep up, but their running game has not played well while too much is on Ryan to do the job for them. Like TB to maintain their run of form with another win here Green Bay -5.5 @ 4.05 sportsbet Green Bay will look to Rodgers once again to ignite this defence, as he has thrown for at least two TDs in 9 of his 10 games, a total of 28 TDs with just 6 INTs. Manning on the other hand has 12 TDs and 10 INTs with 6 of these INTs in his last four games and just 1 TD to show for it. Both teams are pretty average in defending the pass (NYG 258 yards per game and GB 244 yards per game) as well as the run (NYG 114 yards per game and GB 100 yards per game) but it is the QB play that is the difference, and right now, Rodgers is playing much better Record: 26-56 (-8.70)

[Crouch Potato]

Re: NFL Week 12 Picks Ryan Mathews Over 65.5 Rushing Yards @ 1.80 Bet365 In their past 6 games the Ravens have given up well over this mark to Jamaal Charles, Arian Foster, Trent Richardson and DeMarco Murray. If you combine the Steelers time share backs Dwyer and Mendenhall they easily eclipsed this mark and Marcel Reece got to 48 on 9 carries before Oakland simply fell too far behind. The Chargers are struggling right now and the absence of Gaither won't help, but the Raven's run D isn't as stout as it used to be and with Mathews getting most of the carries inside the 20's I think this line is about 10 yards too short.

[AGurv]

Re: NFL Week 12 Picks Steelers -2 to win 1 unit @ 5dimes Vikings +6 to win 1 unit @ 5dimes Saints pick +110 to bet 1 unit @ 5dimes Packers ML +125 to bet 1 unit @ 5dimes Eagles -3 (-120) to win 1 unit @ 5dimes

[vitalyo]

Re: NFL Week 12 Picks TNX GUYS !!! Books are been slow to put in up the #'s on the props a specially willhill , so far they only offer one game :( and it's an hour before the kick off (13:00 games) . [TABLE]

[TR] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Buffalo Bills vs. Indianapolis Colts (Lucas Oil Stadium)[/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] 1:00 PM EST on November 25, 2012 [TABLE] [TR] [TH][/TH] [TH] 12:00 PM [/TH] [TH] 1:00 PM [/TH] [TH] 2:00 PM [/TH] [TH] 3:00 PM [/TH] [TH] 4:00 PM [/TH] [TH] 5:00 PM [/TH] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Wind[/TD] [TD] 21 km/h SW [/TD] [TD] 21 km/h WSW [/TD] [TD] 20 km/h WSW [/TD] [TD] 19 km/h WSW [/TD] [TD] 18 km/h WSW [/TD] [TD] 15 km/h WSW [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Conditions[/TD] [TD] Partly Cloudy[/TD] [TD] Partly Cloudy[/TD] [TD] Partly Cloudy[/TD] [TD] Partly Cloudy[/TD] [TD] Partly Cloudy[/TD] [TD] Partly Cloudy[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Temperature[/TD] [TD] 3 °C[/TD] [TD] 4 °C[/TD] [TD] 5 °C[/TD] [TD] 5 °C[/TD] [TD] 6 °C[/TD] [TD] 4 °C[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Humidity[/TD] [TD] 53 %[/TD] [TD] 49 %[/TD] [TD] 50 %[/TD] [TD] 51 %[/TD] [TD] 52 %[/TD] [TD] 60 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Chance of Rain[/TD] [TD] 0 %[/TD] [TD] 0 %[/TD] [TD] 0 %[/TD] [TD] 0 %[/TD] [TD] 0 %[/TD] [TD] 0 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] SOUTHWEST WIND 20, GUSTY The wind is strong enough to kill the air game . Both teams are in the hunt for the play off and will take this game very conservatively . Why wouldn't they? BUFFALO RUSH DEFENSE - Rushing Yards 153.30 per game allowed RANKED 31st , 2ed worst rush D INDIANAPOLIS RUSH DEFENSE -Rushing Yards 119.80 per game allowed RANKED 21 BUFFALO RUSH OFFENSE - RANKED 8th ,140.80 yards per game INDIANAPOLIS RUSH OFFENSE - RANKED 14 , 110.40 yards per game With this wind conditions going to the air is very risky ( a specially early in the game ) that is almost guaranteed an interception or 2 and could prove to be costly . I believe this game will be settled on the ground . Let's look at the QB's O/U and the odds . BUFFALO OFFENSE Passing Yards 210.10 INDIANAPOLIS DEFENSE against the PASS - 240.30 BUFFALO ROAD PASS OFFENSE - 201.00 INDIANAPOLIS HOME PASS DEFENSE - 226.40 Ryan Fitzpatrick - Total Passing Yards set at 238,5 across the board (books copy each other) My # for him 219,3 O/U (normal weather conditions ) Bwin offers Fitzpatrick 240,5 @1.85 not a big edge but still . [TABLE] [TR] [TD=colspan: 6][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 3][/TD] [TD=colspan: 2][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] 1) Ryan Fitzpatrick - Total Passing Yards UNDER 240,5 @1.85 bwin max bet 10 units 2) Andrew Luck - Total Passing Yards Under 286,5 @ 1.85 bwin max bet 10 units INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE Passing Yards -283.00 BUFFALO DEFENSE Pass against -234.10 INDIANAPOLIS HOME OFFENSE Passing Yards -288.80 BUFFALO ROAD PASS DEFENSE - 236.50 My # for him 260.6 (normal weather conditions ) 3) Game O/U 51. Under 51 @ 2.00 pinnacle 6 units Running game should eat up the cock pretty fast , there for 51 is too high I am banking on the weather ! Beside the weather books got the QB #'s wrong , i cannot see both of them beating the # . Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1:00 PM EST on November 25, 2012 4)Total Passing Yards – Matt Ryan (ATL) Over 305½ @1.80 bodog 5 units The Falcons have struggled to run the ball , especially recently, as they’ve averaged less than 2.5 yards per carry the past two weeks. Against the strong run defense of the Buccaneers, this likely won’t be the week they get the running game going. That means they’ll be airing it out most of the day 5)Total Completions - Matt Ryan (ATL) Over 24½ @1.85 bodog 5 units doesn't often need this many completions for a win. That said, he's on the road vs a red-hot division opponent that cannot for the life of them stop the pass. With so many weapons in his arsenal and the score likely to be close all day, OVER is the play . Ryan average Pass Completions 26.80 TAMPA BAY DEFENSE has the worst pass D in the league 32 16:25 PM EST on November 25, 2012 San Francisco 49ers vs. New Orleans Saints (Mercedes-Benz Superdome) 6) Devery Henderson (NO Saints) Receiving yards UNDER 29.5 @1.83 bet365 max bet 10 units Key Stats [TABLE] [TR] [TD]GP[/TD] [TD] 9[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Catches[/TD] [TD] 19[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Catches/gm[/TD] [TD] 2.1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Yds (rec)[/TD] [TD] 283[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]TDs (comb)[/TD] [TD] 1[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Fumbles[/TD] [TD] 1[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Bet365 you are kidding me ? He will need 3+ catches to beat this # .I don't see it happen, Not against SAN FRANCISCO PASS DEFENSE that is RANKED 2ed , he will probably need 4 + On top of that , time of the possession where NEW ORLEANS is ranked dead last 32 . Drew Brees will have limited time to deliver the ball and i cannot see Henderson to be his top choice . 7) Colin Kaepernick (SF49's) Rush Yards UNDER 42 @ 1.91 willhill 10 units bet365 has him @ 36,5 In short Alex Smith lost the starting job Sunday against the Saints to Colin Kaepernick. Kaepernick is not payed to run the ball , the guy is just great on delivering trough the air .Kaepernick had 66 rush yards against ST Louis and ONLY 10 against Chicago . NO rush defense is just pissed poor 31st ,SF RB's can run on them all day (no need for Kaepernick miracles) , and if needed they can ask him to trough the ball . After last year play off fiasco (Alex Smith injury) I would be very surprised if Kaepernick is not instructed by the coaching staff not to try to run the ball him self . 8)Colin Kaepernick Total Passing Yards Under (250.5) @ 1.91 willhill 10 units The rest of the world offer him @240,5 . I like the play anyway. 49ers will surely stick to what’s been their bread and butter, the run game. In terms of pure rushing, San Francisco is the highest-graded team and is miles ahead of any other team in the league in run blocking. They’re averaging 5.5 yards per carry and having success regardless of where they run.NO have been awful defending the run(worst in the league), having given up 5.1 yards per carry with 87 missed tackles. I'll post more picks around 15:00 Cheers GL.

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: NFL Week 12 Picks Bears / Vikings (over 5.5 sacks) 2pts @ 2.00 Stan James Think the respective D-Lines can put pressure on the QBs tonight, bringing plenty pressure and getting into their faces. I actually think the Vikes D could just about cover this by themselves, so hopefully the Bears chip in with a couple on the occasions AllDay isn't running it. Jared Allen has 13 sacks in 8 meetings with Chicago, and 3.5 on New Years Day the last time they met, whilst Peppers averages over a sack a game through 7 meetings. Carson Palmer (Over 285.5 Passing yards) 3pts @ 1.91 Ladbrokes Palmer was Cinci's #1 draft pick 9 years ago and returns to Ohio looking to be a good bet to top 300yds for the 4th consecutive game, having thrown for 414, 368 and 312 in his last 3. With McFadden out, and likely to be chasing the game through the second half it figures that the Raiders will be looking to the air game, and enabling Palmer to cover this line. Andrew Luck anytime TD v Bills - 1.5pts @ 4.33 Bet365 Think Luck is overpriced here to score a TD at some point through the match. With 5 rushing TDs on the season already and up against an awful run D, the #1 pick should be more like 7/4 - 2/1 in my view Marcedes Lewis anytime TD v Titans - 2pts @ 3.30 Paddy Power With Henne definitely under centre tonight, we should be seeing a more dangerous Jags offense like last week v the Texans. Lewis reeled in 2 TD catches last week as Henne looked towards him in the redzone, using his height and strength to create mismatches in the endzone. The Titans' D figures towards the bottom of the rankings, and Henne threw for almost 350yds on his only previous start against them, for Miami. Think the chances of Lewis grabbing himself another TD this week should make the price more towards the 5/4 mark. Knowshon Moreno anytime TD v Chiefs - 1pt @ 6.00 Bet365 Just a value play, think it should be more like 3/1. Hillman gets the start but he isn't going to shoulder the whole load himself, Ball and Moreno will come in and get carries too. Think Broncos win this comfortably, and there's a greater than 17% chance of Moreno grabbing himself a goalline carry through for a TD Tony Gonzalez anytime TD v Buccaneers - 3pts @ 2.20 Skybet The other books have Gonzo down as an odds-on chance to get a TD, which I think is more on the mark than this 6/5 quote. Gonzalez stands on 101 TDs going into the game, and it wouldn't surprise me to see him add to that tally tonight in what promises to be a high scoring game between 2 very good offenses

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: NFL Week 12 Picks

Knowshon Moreno anytime TD v Chiefs - 1pt @ 6.00 Bet365 Just a value play, think it should be more like 3/1. Hillman gets the start but he isn't going to shoulder the whole load himself, Ball and Moreno will come in and get carries too. Think Broncos win this comfortably, and there's a greater than 17% chance of Moreno grabbing himself a goalline carry through for a TD

Sigh, family Sunday Lunches!!! Just seen it was reported 45 minutes ago that Moreno is getting the start!! Would certainly have had more than 1 point on this in that case. C'est la vie

[vitalyo]

Re: NFL Week 12 Picks LOL only 2nd 10:54 . Ryan is the money [TABLE=class: num]

[TR=class: datahead] [TD=colspan: 5, align: left]Passing[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: left][/TD] [TD=width: 15%]CP/ATT[/TD] [TD=width: 13%]YDS[/TD] [TD=width: 13%]TD[/TD] [TD=width: 13%]INT[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: left]M. Ryan [/TD] [TD]9/9[/TD] [TD]90[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[vitalyo]

Re: NFL Week 12 Picks Baltimore Ravens @ San Diego Chargers 16:05 PM EST on November 25, 2012 9) Total Passing Yards – Joe Flacco (BAL) Over 235½ @ 1.80 bodog max bet 10 units bet365 has him at 245,5 This is win win bet at any line . SAN DIEGO RUSH defense is 3ed best in the league .BALTIMORE RUSH OFFENSE ranked 25th Like it or not Baltimore will have to go in the air . Flaco average 239.60 Passing Yards per game . He will beat this # easily . Cheers GL. One more game @ 20:30 Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants I'll post the picks (if any) an hour prior

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: NFL Week 12 Picks Stuck playing poker, so will be sans reasoning :$ Ravens (-6.5) 3pts @ 2.70 Bet365 Saints (-4.5) 2pts @ 2.80 Bet365 Packers (-4.5) 2pts @ 2.90 Bet365 1pt treble, making 20pt total on the day

[vitalyo]

Re: NFL Week 12 Picks Boom 5-0 On 13:00 games 11Win -0 Lost

[kevshat]

Re: NFL Week 12 Picks 4pts Carolina (-2.5) to beat Philadelphia 5/6 Blue Square The question here really is who has been the worst side and the answer is probably Philadelphia. If anything the Eagles seem to be getting worse rather than better so siding with the Panthers here may not be a standout call but it does seem to be the right one. There’s fewer issues with them than there is with the Eagles so in a match between two struggling sides I’ll take the ones without the soap opera tags attached to them. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/carolina--philadelphia-betting-carolina-can-win-in-the-battle-of-the-strugglers-on-monday-night

[vitalyo]

Re: NFL Week 12 Picks [h=2]20:30 Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants[/h] I am leaning Aaron Rodgers OVER 280.5 willhill It is a strong play , i have no time nor will do do the write up . However i am gonna pass on this play .My picks gone 9-0 on the day and 15-0 overall . I am gonna call it a day and update my bankroll later [TABLE=class: tableData] [TR] [TH=class: leftPad title, colspan: 2]Aaron Rodgers Total Passing Yards [/TH] [/TR]

[TR] [TD] 1.91 Under (280.5) [/TD] [TD] 1.91 Over (280.5) [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Cheers GL. [h=2][/h]

[vitalyo]

Re: NFL Week 12 Picks

1) Ryan Fitzpatrick - Total Passing Yards UNDER 240,5 @1.85 bwin max bet 10 units Won:nana R. Fitzpatrick 17/33 180 yards 2) Andrew Luck - Total Passing Yards Under 286,5 @ 1.85 bwin max bet 10 units Won :nana A. Luck 20/37 240 yards 3) Game O/U 51. Under 51 @ 2.00 pinnacle 6 units Won:nana won 13-20 final 4)Total Passing Yards – Matt Ryan (ATL) Over 305½ @1.80 bodog 5 units Won :nana M. Ryan 26/32 353 yards 5)Total Completions - Matt Ryan (ATL) Over 24½ @1.85 bodog 5 units Won:nana M. Ryan 26/32 353 yards 6) Devery Henderson (NO Saints) Receiving yards UNDER 29.5 @1.83 bet365 max bet 10 units Won:nana 0 catches 0 yards 7) Colin Kaepernick (SF49's) Rush Yards UNDER 42 @ 1.91 willhill 10 units Won:nana C. Kaepernick 27 rush yards 8)Colin Kaepernick Total Passing Yards Under (250.5) @ 1.91 willhill 10 units Won:nana C. Kaepernick 16/25 231 yards 9) Total Passing Yards – Joe Flacco (BAL) Over 235½ @ 1.80 bodog max bet 10 units Won:nana J. Flacco 30/51 355 yards Cheers GL.

9 win - 0 lost on the day +65.75 units NFL 2012/13 15 win - 0 lost +117.31 GL. I'll post monday night picks (if any) before 19:30 EST

[blackcrow]

Re: NFL Week 12 Picks Great work vitalyo :clap

[blackcrow]

Re: NFL Week 12 Picks

Pittsburgh -9.5 @ 3.94 :( Hard win a game with 3 INTs and 5 fumbles Tennessee -9.5 @ 3.26 :( Another 2 INTs and a fumble led to their loss Tampa Bay -7.5 @ 4.60 :( Green Bay -5.5 @ 4.05 :( Gave away an INT and 2 fumbles

Hard to win games when the teams lose the amount of turnovers they did Carolina -10.5 @ 4.05 sportsbet Philly's QB Foles threw for 204 yards last week, from 21 of 46 attempts, as he gave up 3 INTS and was sacked four times in the 31-6 loss to Washington last week. While this Carolina secondary is not much better than what he faced last week, the inability of his injury plagued offensive line to protect means that he will once again be under much pressure here. Their run games has stalled as well, as they have ran for 92 yards or less in 5 of their last 6 games, after running for 120+ yards in their first four games, and this Carolina rush defence has kept teams under 100 yards in 4 of their last 6 games. Expext Carolina's QB Newton to get some good numbers here as Philly's secondary has allowed 11 TDs in their last four games, while they have allowed 136+ rushing yards in 5 of their last 6 games. Philly have allowed 30, 28, 38 and 31 points since the bye while scoring 17, 13, 23 and 6 themselves, and Carolina have enough talent to win this game well against a team that looks like they have given up on the coach Record: 26-60 (-12.70)

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: NFL Week 12 Picks I'm going to retire and just back Vitalyo's bets. Easy ;) nice work again, Vitalyo :clap