BBOTD - Wednesday, 21/11/12

[smith17]

18.30 Kempton: Validus, 9/2 BetVictor, win Validus won lto over c&d on his first start in over a year. He was held up and then weaved his way through the field to win impressively by 1¼L. He has won on both starts over c&d. He steps up in class to a listed race. A similar performance would see him go close and, as he has only run four times, there could be a bit of improvement to come. He ran ok in a group 3 last year to finish fifth at Newmarket. Now he is back on a surface he likes, I think he has a good chance to land his first class 1 success. Trainer Luca Cumani has a decent record here and he has a good partnership with today's jockey Kirsty Milczarek, who was on board for this horses last run.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: BBOTD - Wednesday, 21/11/12 700 Kempton - Fourth Generation 10/1 Bet365 BOG This horse was a little bit unlucky LTO out, sitting just off the pace but being hampered a couple of times when coming through and challenging on the straight. He did well to only finish 1/4L behind the winner who had the run of the race. The selection is yet to finish outside of the places on the AW and granted a clearer run, I think he could have a big chance at a very good price. My main worry is that all of the 'form' horses seem to be hold up types and whilst this one will probably sit in midfield I am a little concerned that something could steal this from the front. Of the others, I am sure Ice Buster will be very popular. He looked a sure fire winner coming off the home turn LTO but his jockey didnt really look as though he wanted to win the race and again it was the same story back here the time before that when he was a never nearer 3rd. I have no doubt he is well handicapped and could win this, but I wont have my money on his jockey. Livias Dream looks a lively outsider at the foot of the weights from a good draw and the form of her win here in September has worked out really well. Wheres Susie is another at a price who might do well if she can refind her form as I have her fourth on my figures.