BBOTD Tuesday 20th November

[Blazing Bailey]

2.40 Folkestone - Pete The Feat 3/1 William Hill BOG An interesting race this with only a handful in form and a couple looking as though they might not be too far off. I have however decided to go with the favourite on his third start for his new yard as the form of his first run this season has worked out really well (2nd placed in a C4, 3rd & 4th won NTO). He then turned it up another notch to rout his rivals at Plumpton LTO and whilst the opposition was moderate the 2nd has placed since. The trip, ground and class are all fine. Of the opposition, both Mission Complete & Red Mile look like they might be ready to step up on previous efforts over this slightly longer trip, whilst the bottom weight Local Present has had the form of his last two chase wins work out quite well but the competition here is much tougher.

[Lodge]

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 20th November 3.50 - Southwell - Midnight Bahia @ 14/1 Bet365 An uninspring days racing tomorrow, but i feel Midnight Bahia could spring a shock in the last at Southwell. The 3yo has only had 4 career starts so far and has not shown a great deal in any of them. She was upped in trip last time out on handicap debut from 1m to 1m½, and that looked to suit her slightly better, she was held up and left alot to do down the straight at Kempton eventually finishing 6th, running on okay. She gets another go at 12f tomorrow and is switched to the fibresand at Southwell, the surface can often be a minefield as to whether horses cope with it but the sire stats are pretty encouraging, her sire Refuse To Bend has had 55 runners yeilding 16 winners at a strike rate of nearly 30%. Runs off a mark of 46 in this class 6 (0-55) handicap so if she up to winning a race there wont be many easier tasks. Franny Norton looks an interesting jockey booking, he's a man in form at the moment, he only has 2 rides at Southwell tomorrow and its the first time he has ridden for the yard in a long time. Least exposed of this field and while i was hoping for a slightly better price, still worth a shot imo.