NBA: Nov 15th ~ 21st 2012

[Samba_SamPa]

Another new week Good luck chaps :ok

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Re: NBA: Nov 15th ~ 21st 2012 I don't know why this wasn't posted: Atlanta +7 @1.91 William Hill (3u.) Josh Smith Over 16.5 Points (3u.) The Hawks are 10-2 SU in their last 12, building up on a hot streak lately, with wins @Memphis, and against the Clippers, for example. Miami is 8-4SU L12, but only 4-8 ATS in those. Atlanta is only half a game behind Miami in the division, so this might be a crucial matchup. After Lebron and Wade getting minor injuries on the last game, I expect them to play, but they may struggle. For Atlanta, only Korver is out, which will be a notable loss for them as he opens the court nicely and this is something Miami struggles with. The backcourts will be paired today with Teague over Cole, but Wade and Lebron dominating also. The problem for Miami might be the paint, with Horford and Smith over any of the Miami s big men. I think Atlanta will be on the game for long, but Lebron and Wade will finally come through and get the W home. That said, I expect Miami to win but not to cover the handicap, winning by 3-5 points.Being consistent with the previous write-up, going with Smith as I think him and Horford will be well over their defensive pairs. He has had 24,23,16,25,17,17 points in his last games, only missing the line on one of those. Although he started the season very low, he is getting back and today should be another day in the office for him, going for around 20 points.

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Re: NBA: Nov 15th ~ 21st 2012 Remember I am on twitter, @AllCapper Went Monday 1-1 for -0.45 units, but 1-0 on Player Props for +2.55 units Tuesday, 12/11/2012 DEN Nuggets @ DET Pistons Denver is a better team based on the Matchups here. Although they are not strong defenders, they seem to have an edge on the paint, with only Monroe responding for the Pistons, who are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 underdog games. Also, the Pistons are having some lineup changes with Stuckey/Singler, with the first gaining ground on the second. Denver almost knocked out the Knicks and Atlanta this week, and Gallo is improving on his slump (which was not very difficult). I think Denver can beat the Pistons and cover the -5 we get here. LA Clippers @ CHI Bulls We have a tough game on the paint here, with Boozer & Noah vs Jordan & Griffin. I think this one can be 50/50 if Noah has a good game, but I'd focus this game on another spot, the G. We have one of the best all-around PG in the league in Chris Paul, averaging 3 steals per game on defense, and 16.1PPG on offense. He has only one backup today on Bledsoe, with Billups injured, and he will log loads of minutes today. He will face a Bulls who have no Rose and no RIP today, and with Hinrich back from an injury and not going very defensive, I am thinking CP3 dominates this one. PLAYS: DEN Nuggets -5 @5Dimes, 1.97 Stake 3 LA Clippers -2.5 @MarathonBet, 1.92 Stake 3 PROP: Chris Paul Over 16.5 Points @5Dimes, 1.87 Stake 3

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Re: NBA: Nov 15th ~ 21st 2012 We go 3-0 for a nice +8.28 on the night! Total --> 4-1 +7.83 units Player Props --> 2-0 +5.16 units

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Re: NBA: Nov 15th ~ 21st 2012 Wednesday 12/12/12: Second day of action, and I will start with a small recap. OVERALL--> 3-0 for +9 units PROPS--> 1-0 for +3units. Plays for today: BKN Nets @ TOR Raptors This line opened at -4 for the Nets, which looked like a jump-in line, and now it is -7.5. From an ideal starting-5 in Toronto including Lowry, Fields, DeRozan, Bargnani and Johnson, we will only have some DeRozan today, and Toronto only has 8 healthy bodies today to try and compete against a underperforming Nets team. Both teams have been losing lately, but they have done that in such different ways, as Nets were at least losing close games, like last night in NY. I still see value at the Nets -7.5. Some trends, BKN is 4-0 as a road favorite in L4, TOR is 0-4 after L4 losses. I will play a prop here on DeMar DeRozan Over 19.5 Points, as he has had two BIG games lately with 20 & 24 scored on them, and today is one of the few healthy bodies for the home team. ATL Hawks @ ORL Magic Yes, the Magic have improved in their last 4-5 games stretch, but that was not too much to ask with their awful numbers, and they are still 0-3 in L3 @ Home. They host the Hawks, a presumably better team than they are, who competed until last minutes @ Miami, and who dominates the series with 8-2 ATS in L10 against Orlando. Entering the matchups, I thing Teague is better in both sides than Afflalo can be, and the inside couples of Davis+Vucevic should be framed by Smith+Horford, much more agressive and better scorers than they are. The only weakness I saw on this play was Redick did not have a competition on 3s, but knowing Korver will check in, although it will be in limited minutes, encourages me enough to get some ATL Hawks -4.5 MEM Grizzlies @ PHO Suns The Phoenix Suns are a complete mess right now. They are on a big dip, horrible losing streak, and they need to make some changes, beginning with Scola back on the lineup today. They allow 103.9PPG, compared to Memphis, best Defense in the league with 91.2PPG allowed, this game can go defensive. Whenever their offenses come, Z-BO and Gasol look stronger than any Suns F, and Dragic (coming back from the flu) will not bail the Suns out himself. I like those Memphis on the road, and they should cover. Leaning Gay Over 19,5, but I'm not firing as we could see some trash time here today. CHI @ PHI I will keep up backing the Bull's opponent PG, and in this case, Holiday seems a perfect fit for that. He scored 23 few days ago against CHI, and 25 last night, after declaring that he would be trying to shoot more than usual in the next few games. He afterwards shot 20 times (season-high, and i expect him to perform similarly today. If he gets 40% of shots in, Prop cashes on the Over 17,5. GSW @ MIA David Lee is a double-double machine as we all know, and I think he should keep up with this pace today. He averages 23.6 points in L7 and is in a sweet mood lately. Miami is weaker on the inner side of the D, and he should mark a good pace for their teammates with his scoring. The Over 19,5 should cash, and if you find a PTS+REB line at 29-30, it should go too. SAS @ UTAH Tony Parker had his first triple-double last game, and today he has a pretty factible matchup against a Utah team that bases on a great inside D, but with weaker backcourt. In the first clash of the season, Parker was cold but got to the rim at will, and now, with him in a streak, I gotta go on the Over 20.5 PLAYS BKN Nets -7.5 @1.98 5Dimes, 3u ATL Hawks -4.5 @1.91Bwin, 3u MEM Grizzlies -6 @1.91 WilliamHill, 3u PLAYER PROPS DeMar DeRozan Over 19.5 Points @1.87 5Dimes, 3u Jrue Holiday Over 17.5 Points,@2 Bwin, 3u David Lee Over 19.5 Points, @1.80 Bovada,3u Tony Parker Over 20.5 Points @1.85 Betsson, 3u

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Re: NBA: Nov 15th ~ 21st 2012 Short day on NBA today, let's go with only one play on a Player Prop. Remember we are 7-3 +11.19 OVERALL and 4-1 +8.55 on PROPS. LA Lakers @ NY Knicks. The Lakers have no PG as they are showing lately. If you add that they are not defending any little bit, the PG of the opposite team will easily get great numbers. Just saying? No, here are the proofs: G. Vasquez --> Average 11.6, scores 16 against Lakers. R. Westbrook --> Average 21, scores 33 against LA M. Williams --> Average 13.9, scores 22 against LA. K. Irving --> Comes from injury, scores 28 against LA, 9 on next game. The only doubt here is Felton struggles of late, but I feel confident he can hit the Over 14.5 Points -118 PLAYER PROP: R. Felton Over 14.5 Points -118 Betsson, 3.54units to win 3u. Follow me on twitter @AllCapper

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Re: NBA: Nov 15th ~ 21st 2012 DET @ BKN The Pistons are on a nice run 6-3-1ATS on L10, while Brooklyn is struggling at shooting, and is 3-5-1ATS L10 games. Brooklyn had some issues beating a very poor Raptors on their last game, while the Raptors were only having 9 healthy bodies, and their main stars were out. Stackhouse will not play today, Williams is struggling, and Lopez, who will come back for the Nets, will have to adjust and get some limited minutes. i expect the Nets big men to struggle with Monroe, Maxiell and Drummond, and if Deron continues struggling, the backcourt can be tight. Detroit on the spread looks nice. PHI @ IND Both teams are not great scoring teams, they base their game on a slow-paced, PG commanded style. Both have great defenses, and Indiana had a rough season start due to Granger being injured. Now that George and West have taken a step forward to help forget Granger, they are starting to play better and win some games, and they should be favs here against 76ers. Adding value to our play, Philadelphias PG Holiday will not play today, and Philly does not have a strong backup PG, so I think Hill will take command and get a nice W home PLAYS DETROIT +8 @1.95 5Dimes, 3u INDIANA -5.5 @1.92 Expekt 3u PLAYER PROPS PHI @ IND As I wrote before, I expect Hill to lead his team in Holidays absence, and he will not have a clear PG defending him. He is averaging just about 16 points lately, hitting 17,15,15,18 against Irving or Westbrook, for example, so I expect him to go over 15.5 LAL @ WAS Crawford has been acting as the leader and true PG of the team lately, coming up with 17,26,22,14,22 points lately. As the lakers can not defend the opponents PG, I like him to be Over 17.5 SAC @ OKC Westbrook is in a good shape and he has proven, scoring a lot this season and nearing triple-doubles. He should take good care of the indefinition on the backcourt of Sacramento and score over 21 points. PROPS George Hill Over 15.5 @1.85 3u. Jordan Crawford Over 17.5 @1.85 Betsson 3u Russell Westbrook Over 21 @1.85 Paf 3u.

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Re: NBA: Nov 15th ~ 21st 2012 Had an awful losing day yesterday, going 2-3 but 0-3 on props, missing Hill by 0.5 points! No time tonight as I am away from home, I'll post my plays without a writeup, also will be posting on Twitter (@AllCapper) PLAYS ORL @ CHA Under 191.5 -102 Pinnacle 3.06 units to win 3u IND Pacers -2.5 -102 Pinnacle 3.06 units to win 3u. PROPS George Hill Over 20.5 Points + Assists -115 3.45 units to win 3u Monta Ellis Over 18.5 Points -115 3.45 units to win 3u.