Jumps Racing - Weds 14th November

[Blazing Bailey]

200 Bangor On Dee – Alvarado 11/2 BetVictor BOG

This looks a good little race considering the card and a fewshould have chances. I have decided to go with Alvarado as he looks aprogressive chaser having won 4 of his 5 completed starts. The form of his lastwin at Wetherby looks strong with the 3^rd finishing a fairly close 4^thin a Listed race of 132 and the 2^nd & 4^th both beingrated 128. I think this gelding should be better over this distance meaningthat a mark of 135 shouldn’t be too problematic. He has form on the ground andin this class & already has a run under his belt unlike some of his rivals.

Of the others, Sir Du Bearn won nicely LTO but I’m unsurewhether that was a one off or the beginning of a renaissance. Best watched IMOat this stage.

Fine Parchment & Kauto Relko haven’t convinced over thistrip and while the former was badly out of form at the end of last season, thelatter has some jumping issues.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Quartz De Thaix ran a big raceafter a really disappointing season last year, but again I wouldn’t want to seea spark before I got involved.

Monkerty Tunkerty is sure to attract a fair bit of money andhe may well prove to be a good thing but I’m not sure whether he has earnedthis mark. He beat Bradley by a decent margin but I don’t think there’s anydoubt that Bradley wasn’t anywhere near his best that day.

Lively Baron is probably the biggest danger. He won with alittle bit to spare LTO and that was despite jumping out to his right. Thiscompany is a little better IMO and if he does that again here then I think itcould cost him victory.

I backed Buffalo Bob LTO when he looked like he needed therun. Given that the headgear has stayed off I get the feeling they still have afew more cob webs to blow away and therefore I will be watching this one too.

Cotswold Charmer is an interesting contender, especially asit seems money has come in for him. He maywell be one to catch fresh but his last two runs were really disappointing andI think he has a bit to prove.