pg_yid Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 This is my first attempt at a system thread. I have a few systems that have been successful for me but which I wouldn't want to share on a public forum. This is a new idea of mine, though I'm sure someone has tried it before. The idea is this...with an arb, there is an under round book. The implied probabilities of the odds, when added up, come to less than 100%. This means that one or more of the selections which make up an arb are definitely value. By value I mean that the percentage chance of the selection winning is higher than that suggested by the odds. This is mathematically correct, and cannot be refuted. So, arbing/arbritage provides guaranteed profit. However, there are many drawbacks to arbing. The most important drawback, in my view, is that you will most likely find your accounts are restricted very quickly. Also, on a personal level, I don't like the idea of arbing as knowing that you will win takes away a large part of the challenge and excitement of regular sports betting and trying to find value. What I was wondering is whether it would be possible to consistently find value bets by finding arbs and then trying to work out which bookmaker is 'wrong'. If you can identify which bookie is offering the value bet then, rather than placing the entire arb, you could simply put a normal bet on at good value odds. Long term this should provide a profit, and hopefully will keep you under the radar of the bookie's anti-arbing software, at least for longer than if you were actually arbing. One potential problem is, of course, you don't know for sure which bookie will have the wrong price. There are a number of ways I will try and work this out. I will list some of them here: 1. Bookies with lower margins (e.g. Pinnacle and 188bet) respond much quicker to the money being placed on bets than other bookies; their lines will fluctuate continuously in the days before an event takes place. These bookies can be said to be a better indicator of the market than the 'European' bookies such as Bwin, Ladbrokes etc. I will assume that these 'Asian' bookies with the low margins are correct in their prices, and the 'European' bookies are wrong. 2. I will assume the market is correct. So the bookie which is most out of line with the general consensus is the one I will assume is offering the 'wrong' or value price. 3. Occasionally I may look at some statistics to help me decide; league tables, overs/unders stats etc. There will be times, of course, when instead of one bookie being obviously 'wrong' in their price, all the selections that make up the arb are a little bit 'wrong' (in other words there is slight value on each selection). I will avoid making bets on games when I think this applies. Also, in order to be more confident of getting value, I will generally only be looking at arbs which are 3% or more. I will have a virtual bank of £10,000 and will place virtual stakes of £100 per bet, so 1% of the starting bank. I won't be placing real money on these selections. I hope anyone reading this has been able to follow, if anyone has any questions I will try to answer them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 It's a great theory m8 and good luck with it. As u identify, it's almost guaranteed to work in the long term. It's a similar approach that I (not intentionally) take with the horses. If I beat BSP on a consistent basis then I am almost bound to win. My only problem with the system is that u are not putting on real bets as are therefore not going to be subject to having accounts restricted. This is pivotal. If bookmakers didn't insist on restricting me I could be 100% confident of winning long into the future. The trouble is, they do and it's almost inevitable that my business ends up on the exchanges every once in a while. Good Luck with it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pg_yid Posted November 12, 2012 Author Share Posted November 12, 2012 Re: pg_yid's 'Half an Arb' system It's a great theory m8 and good luck with it. As u identify, it's almost guaranteed to work in the long term. It's a similar approach that I (not intentionally) take with the horses. If I beat BSP on a consistent basis then I am almost bound to win. My only problem with the system is that u are not putting on real bets as are therefore not going to be subject to having accounts restricted. This is pivotal. If bookmakers didn't insist on restricting me I could be 100% confident of winning long into the future. The trouble is, they do and it's almost inevitable that my business ends up on the exchanges every once in a while. Good Luck with it. Yes, this is a good point. I am aware that betting on these kind of selections would make you vulnerable to being restricted, even if you are not actually arbing. However, I think you are less likely to be restricted (or rather will be restricted less quickly) following my system than arbing. Firstly, it will be easier to keep to round numbers for staking (£100 rather than £102.45). Secondly, the stakes will be much lower than they would be if you were arbing. Part of the reason why I want to test this out is to see how profitable this system would be. If the yield is big enough, I may try the system out short term with a few accounts which aren't important to me, just to make some profit with the knowledge I will banned sooner or later. I think this system may also lead to some interesting discoveries about the market itself and how often it is correct/how correct it is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 It's my understanding that arbing involves taking the best price available - if the exchange price is under the available price and you'd chuck on as much money as they will accept at the price. It's my experience that £100 is way, way to much to get on with one bookmaker without getting your accounts restricted. I do talk from a horse racing perspective though and suppose u may be ok with Football betting. Rather than arbing, you're taking the maximum return approach. Using the market as a guide and then deciding if its a true value price etc. it's not exactly my approach but I can absolutely see and appreciate that this system will work - on paper anyway. How long are u going to trial it for? As for going forward, and this is something I am considering, if the arb/value was available(or the price I wanted/required was available) then ill back it at a lower price to an extent. Mathematically this is wrong but frankly, the Bookmakers are so quick to restrict and shut down now that if I had to have my whole stake on at the best price that was available, I'd never have a bet!! Best of Luck with it - am sure it will work with long term discipline. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pg_yid Posted November 12, 2012 Author Share Posted November 12, 2012 Re: pg_yid's 'Half an Arb' system Bet 1. Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Cherno More Under 3.5 @ 1.44 (Bwin) Only two bookies up at the moment. Bwin have this at 1.44 whilst Sporting Bet offer 1.18. It would provide an impressive 8.1% arb if combined with Sporting Bet's 4.33 on over 3.5. A quick look at soccerway shows that around 75% of these two teams' games have gone under 3.5. 1.44 equates to 69.4% chance. Also, these two sides are relatively equal in the league table, so there isn't too much chance of one side hammering the other. I think Bwin are wrong here. By the way, I am only going to include football bets in this system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pg_yid Posted November 12, 2012 Author Share Posted November 12, 2012 Re: pg_yid's 'Half an Arb' system It's my understanding that arbing involves taking the best price available - if the exchange price is under the available price and you'd chuck on as much money as they will accept at the price. It's my experience that £100 is way, way to much to get on with one bookmaker without getting your accounts restricted. I do talk from a horse racing perspective though and suppose u may be ok with Football betting. Rather than arbing, you're taking the maximum return approach. Using the market as a guide and then deciding if its a true value price etc. it's not exactly my approach but I can absolutely see and appreciate that this system will work - on paper anyway. How long are u going to trial it for? As for going forward, and this is something I am considering, if the arb/value was available(or the price I wanted/required was available) then ill back it at a lower price to an extent. Mathematically this is wrong but frankly, the Bookmakers are so quick to restrict and shut down now that if I had to have my whole stake on at the best price that was available, I'd never have a bet!! Best of Luck with it - am sure it will work with long term discipline. I think that is one way of arbing, the other being to use different bookies for the different legs of the bet rather than using a bookie and an exchange. As for getting £100 on, I think it depends on how obscure the game is, the odds, the bookmaker in question and how much you have won with them etc. I don't know much about horse racing but I guess a lot of the selections are longer odds which would reduce the amount of the stake you can get on. I do bet three figures sums on football matches but I tend to bet things which are between 1.10-2.50 so it's not the same as betting on long shots. I've been restricted from a few bookies. As I've said though, I haven't tried out this system with real money...it is very likely that betting £100 on events where you are constantly beating the starting price will get you restricted, I'm not sure how long it would take though. At the moment I try and use systems which focus on the entire market being wrong, rather than just one or two bookies. I think this way you are less likely to be restricted. I'm not sure how long to trial it for. I have in mind 1,000 bets, but we'll see if I have the patience for that! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Well good luck with it. I don't mean to be obtrusive (is that even a word!?) - am just short of accounts again and pd off with bookmakers!! ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betting101 Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Re: pg_yid's 'Half an Arb' system So, how long time before kick off will look for arbs? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pg_yid Posted November 12, 2012 Author Share Posted November 12, 2012 Re: pg_yid's 'Half an Arb' system Well good luck with it. I don't mean to be obtrusive (is that even a word!?) - am just short of accounts again and pd off with bookmakers!! ;) No worries at all, I think you make very valid points. If, as seems likely, using this system would result in you getting restricted, then there are maybe two options. 1. Accept you are going to be restricted/banned. Only use the system for accounts you're not bothered about keeping, and retain your favourite accounts for other bets/systems 2. Try and find ways around the bookmakers' software...this guy claims to have done so http://sportsarbitragereview.wordpress.com/service-reviews/. Easier said than done, of course! I'll admit that I would be scared to try such a system on my most treasured accounts. But there are hundreds of bookmakers out there, and new ones opening all the time, so it could potentially be used whilst also keeping some accounts. Even if, ultimately, the system cannot provide long term profit for this reason, I think it will be interesting to see what I can learn from following it for a while. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pg_yid Posted November 12, 2012 Author Share Posted November 12, 2012 Re: pg_yid's 'Half an Arb' system So' date=' how long time before kick off will look for arbs?[/quote'] I tend to start looking five days before, or even more. There seem to be less arbs close kick off, as the market settles. That Bulgarian game I posted about is not until Saturday, for instance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betting101 Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Re: pg_yid's 'Half an Arb' system I did something similar before and the strange thing was that is showed me more stable profits when I was using flat stakes then when I was using optimized stakes. Wish you best of luck... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pg_yid Posted November 12, 2012 Author Share Posted November 12, 2012 Re: pg_yid's 'Half an Arb' system I did something similar before and the strange thing was that is showed me more stable profits when I was using flat stakes then when I was using optimized stakes. Wish you best of luck... Thank you :ok I am using flat stakes. How exactly did you work out your staking system when using optimized stakes? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betting101 Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Re: pg_yid's 'Half an Arb' system You can take a look at my posts here....my last post is the most accurate one http://forum.punterslounge.com/threads/134599-Staking-if-more-than-one-bet-in-a-market just my way of making something similar to kelly staking Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pg_yid Posted November 12, 2012 Author Share Posted November 12, 2012 Re: pg_yid's 'Half an Arb' system Bet 2 Emelec vs Manta (Ecuadorian League) Emelec to win the second half @ 3.00 (Sporting Bet) Paddy Power go 1.91 for this. I think Sporting Bet are wrong because Emelec are above Manta in the league by four points and have a game in hand. They should be favourites and as such are more likely to win the second half. 17 or 18 games have been played so far in the season so it's enough of a sample size to judge Emelec as being likely to be the better side out of the two, in my opinion. This looks good value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pg_yid Posted November 13, 2012 Author Share Posted November 13, 2012 Re: pg_yid's 'Half an Arb' system Bet 3. Haladas vs Gyor, Hungarian League Cup Gyor to win @ 2.2 (Betboo) I know nothing about these teams but Betboo's price is well out of line with the market. The average price for the away win is 1.73 and the next best is 1.83. This game starts soon soon will be the first to be settled...rather confusingly, as it is Bet 3. of the system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pg_yid Posted November 13, 2012 Author Share Posted November 13, 2012 Re: pg_yid's 'Half an Arb' system Bet 3. Haladas vs Gyor, Hungarian League Cup Gyor to win @ 2.2 (Betboo) I know nothing about these teams but Betboo's price is well out of line with the market. The average price for the away win is 1.73 and the next best is 1.83. This game starts soon soon will be the first to be settled...rather confusingly, as it is Bet 3. of the system. OK, I'm going to rate the bets by the order in which the events actually happen, to make things less confusing, as a lot of the bets will be selected days in advance. So this is Bet 1. And it lost. Final score Haladas 2 Gyor 1. Bets: 1 Amount staked: £100 P/L: -£100 Yield: -100% Another bet: Steaua Bucharest vs CSS Turnu Severin Steaua to be leading at half-time @ 1.62 with Paddy Power Average odds are 1.48 and next best price is 1.53. Represents one leg of a 3.6% arb. PP's price is out of line with the market consensus. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pg_yid Posted November 14, 2012 Author Share Posted November 14, 2012 Re: pg_yid's 'Half an Arb' system Liechtenstein vs Malta Second half over 1.5 @ 3.25 (Coral) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pg_yid Posted November 14, 2012 Author Share Posted November 14, 2012 Re: pg_yid's 'Half an Arb' system Holland vs Germany First half over 1.5 @ 2.62 (Coral) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pg_yid Posted November 14, 2012 Author Share Posted November 14, 2012 Re: pg_yid's 'Half an Arb' system Lots of arbs about today, so therefore lots of bets for this system... Petrotrest vs Yenisey, Russian Division One Petrotest @ 1.75 (Sporting Bet) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pg_yid Posted November 14, 2012 Author Share Posted November 14, 2012 Re: pg_yid's 'Half an Arb' system Liechtenstein vs Malta Second half over 1.5 @ 3.25 (Coral) Was 0-1 at half time and stayed that way. Bet 2- LOST Bets: 2 Amount staked: £200 P/L: -£200 Yield: -100% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pg_yid Posted November 14, 2012 Author Share Posted November 14, 2012 Re: pg_yid's 'Half an Arb' system Holland vs Germany First half over 1.5 @ 2.62 (Coral) Bet 3- LOST. Bets: 3 Amount staked: £300 P/L: -£300 Yield: -100% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Re: pg_yid's 'Half an Arb' system What I was wondering is whether it would be possible to consistently find value bets by finding arbs and then trying to work out which bookmaker is 'wrong'. If you can identify which bookie is offering the value bet then' date=' rather than placing the entire arb, you could simply put a normal bet on at good value odds. Long term this should provide a profit, and hopefully will keep you under the radar of the bookie's anti-arbing software, at least for longer than if you were actually arbing.[/quote'] IMO you will struggle to stay under the radar betting on these 'soft' lines, especially at books like Sporting Bet, Coral, Bwin and the like, even if you try to bet round numbers like £100 instead of £93.50 if you were to arb the line. Interesting concept, though, and I wish you luck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolo Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Re: pg_yid's 'Half an Arb' system Whichever side has the lower vig/higher limits is almost always going to be the correct line Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pg_yid Posted November 15, 2012 Author Share Posted November 15, 2012 Re: pg_yid's 'Half an Arb' system Stromgodset vs Stabaek, Norway Tippeligaen Over 1.5 (Second half) @ 3.0 (Coral, William Hill) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pg_yid Posted November 15, 2012 Author Share Posted November 15, 2012 Re: pg_yid's 'Half an Arb' system IMO you will struggle to stay under the radar betting on these 'soft' lines, especially at books like Sporting Bet, Coral, Bwin and the like, even if you try to bet round numbers like £100 instead of £93.50 if you were to arb the line. Interesting concept, though, and I wish you luck! Thanks for your comment. You're probably right, but I'm interested to see where this goes anyway. As I wrote above, there could potentially be ways around that problem as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pg_yid Posted November 15, 2012 Author Share Posted November 15, 2012 Re: pg_yid's 'Half an Arb' system Bet 2 Emelec vs Manta (Ecuadorian League) Emelec to win the second half @ 3.00 (Sporting Bet) Paddy Power go 1.91 for this. I think Sporting Bet are wrong because Emelec are above Manta in the league by four points and have a game in hand. They should be favourites and as such are more likely to win the second half. 17 or 18 games have been played so far in the season so it's enough of a sample size to judge Emelec as being likely to be the better side out of the two, in my opinion. This looks good value. Bet 4- LOST. Bets: 4 Amount staked: £400 P/L: -£400 Yield: -100% Not a great start, glad I am not putting real money on these! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pg_yid Posted November 16, 2012 Author Share Posted November 16, 2012 Re: pg_yid's 'Half an Arb' system Hakoach Ramat Gan vs Hapoel Bnei Lod, Israel Under 2.25AH @ 1.98 (Betvictor) Betvictor disagree with 188 on this so we'll side with 188. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pg_yid Posted November 16, 2012 Author Share Posted November 16, 2012 Re: pg_yid's 'Half an Arb' system B. Bystrica vs Myjava, Slovakia Under 2.5 @ 2.1 (Paddy Power) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pg_yid Posted November 16, 2012 Author Share Posted November 16, 2012 Re: pg_yid's 'Half an Arb' system Lots of arbs about today, so therefore lots of bets for this system... Petrotrest vs Yenisey, Russian Division One Petrotest @ 1.75 (Sporting Bet) BET 5: WON Bets: 5 Amount staked: £500 P/L: -£325 Yield: -65% Finally a win....another pick: Adelaide United vs Melbourne Heart Adelaide to win @ 2.4 (Offside Bet) Looks a juicy one; a 9.4% arb. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pg_yid Posted November 16, 2012 Author Share Posted November 16, 2012 Re: pg_yid's 'Half an Arb' system CSKA Moscow vs Amkar CSKA to win @ 1.42 (Offside Bet) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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