pg_yid's 'Half an Arb' system

[pg_yid]

This is my first attempt at a system thread. I have a few systems that have been successful for me but which I wouldn't want to share on a public forum. This is a new idea of mine, though I'm sure someone has tried it before. The idea is this...with an arb, there is an under round book. The implied probabilities of the odds, when added up, come to less than 100%. This means that one or more of the selections which make up an arb are definitely value. By value I mean that the percentage chance of the selection winning is higher than that suggested by the odds. This is mathematically correct, and cannot be refuted. So, arbing/arbritage provides guaranteed profit. However, there are many drawbacks to arbing. The most important drawback, in my view, is that you will most likely find your accounts are restricted very quickly. Also, on a personal level, I don't like the idea of arbing as knowing that you will win takes away a large part of the challenge and excitement of regular sports betting and trying to find value. What I was wondering is whether it would be possible to consistently find value bets by finding arbs and then trying to work out which bookmaker is 'wrong'. If you can identify which bookie is offering the value bet then, rather than placing the entire arb, you could simply put a normal bet on at good value odds. Long term this should provide a profit, and hopefully will keep you under the radar of the bookie's anti-arbing software, at least for longer than if you were actually arbing. One potential problem is, of course, you don't know for sure which bookie will have the wrong price. There are a number of ways I will try and work this out. I will list some of them here: 1. Bookies with lower margins (e.g. Pinnacle and 188bet) respond much quicker to the money being placed on bets than other bookies; their lines will fluctuate continuously in the days before an event takes place. These bookies can be said to be a better indicator of the market than the 'European' bookies such as Bwin, Ladbrokes etc. I will assume that these 'Asian' bookies with the low margins are correct in their prices, and the 'European' bookies are wrong. 2. I will assume the market is correct. So the bookie which is most out of line with the general consensus is the one I will assume is offering the 'wrong' or value price. 3. Occasionally I may look at some statistics to help me decide; league tables, overs/unders stats etc. There will be times, of course, when instead of one bookie being obviously 'wrong' in their price, all the selections that make up the arb are a little bit 'wrong' (in other words there is slight value on each selection). I will avoid making bets on games when I think this applies. Also, in order to be more confident of getting value, I will generally only be looking at arbs which are 3% or more. I will have a virtual bank of £10,000 and will place virtual stakes of £100 per bet, so 1% of the starting bank. I won't be placing real money on these selections. I hope anyone reading this has been able to follow, if anyone has any questions I will try to answer them.

[The Saint]

It's a great theory m8 and good luck with it. As u identify, it's almost guaranteed to work in the long term. It's a similar approach that I (not intentionally) take with the horses. If I beat BSP on a consistent basis then I am almost bound to win. My only problem with the system is that u are not putting on real bets as are therefore not going to be subject to having accounts restricted. This is pivotal. If bookmakers didn't insist on restricting me I could be 100% confident of winning long into the future. The trouble is, they do and it's almost inevitable that my business ends up on the exchanges every once in a while. Good Luck with it.