BBOTD Thursday 25th October

[nickf88]

1:30 Southwell - General Tufto - 1pt Win 20/1 Bet365. In my opinion this horse is way overpriced considering its a course specialist with 10 wins at Southwell, 8 of them being over course and distance. Was 3rd over C+D in March off a mark of 60, tomorrow runs off 54 with a 7 pound claimer on top as well. Hopefully well handicapped to spring a surprise in which a few other horses have been supported in the market already and this horse may go unnoticed.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 25th October Ludlow 3.45 - Citrus Mark - 8/1 Betfred BOG This horse won a couple of decent races at Worcester & Fontwell at around this trip earlier in the year, jumping nicely. He wasn't as good LTO over a longer trip and jumping poorly but still finished an 11L 5th in what was a decent race. The drop back to 16f should help and hopefully his fluent jumping returns. I can see arguement for a couple of the others but they look a bit short and in contrast 8-1 looks good value.

[timmy121]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 25th October Carlisle 15:55 - Power Pack Jack - 4/1 William Hill CD winner of a 16 runner class 3 this time last year. Handicapper has dropped him 3lb since Lto when fav finishing 3/5. In that race Power Pack Jack finished 3+ lengths behind winner magic biship over CD, however Power Pack Jack is now 7lbs better off than The Magic Bishop. Nigel Twiston Davies only runner at the meeting. Won a few times over gd/soft.

[robertob]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 25th October 14.00 Southwell: El Dececy @ 10/1 Bet365 El Dececy is back in form considering his fine run at Bath last time out. He was set to make all as usually but went a suicidal pace in my mind, yet he had most of the field off the bridle till 3f out while travelling not badly through the race himself. He was never expected to come home over 10f at this pace and he had to pay tribute in the closing stages to it indeed, fading in the final furlong completely. He still managed to finish fourth and this performance suggests to me that El Dececy is better in form than the bare result might suggest in first glance. He's back at Southwell tomorrow, a track where he's done very well in the past as a 2x course winner and additional two close 2nd places in ten starts. He also drops in distance back to his probably ideal trip of 1m. He's also very well handicapped and has Adam Kirby on board who manoeuvred him to two wins in the past already. So loads looks right in place for El Dececy and from his low draw he should be able to get the early lead which is so vital lead for him.

[Lodge]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 25th October 13.30 - Southwell - Auto Mac @ 10/1 Bet365 One that i have backed a couple of times now and i still believe he is up to winning a race off this sort of mark. Only career win came in a claimer but i think he is better than that. Runs off a mark of 62 which is a career low, and considering he has gone well of marks of around 5-10lbs higher in the past he should certainly be competitive at the weights. Interestingly switches to fibresand for the first time, obviously it is hard to know whether he will take to it but his sire has had 9 winners from 68 runners there so it could be just what he needs. Sports cheekpieces for the first time and positive jockey booking in Luke Morris. All in all i feel he should go well from his low draw and at double figure odds i feel it is certainly worth taking the chance that he'll like the surface.

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 25th October *Power Pack Jack - Carlisle 3:55* Course and distance winner that went off favourite last time out when a close 3rd to The Magic Bishop. Should strip fitter after that break, Twiston-Davies traditionally does very well this time of year, and the horse has been given a major chance by the handicapper, having dropped him from 109 to 106. It has won on soft, big chance. *1 Point WIN @ 7/2 Betfred BOG*

[corky]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 25th October 1420 carlisle 1pt win another trump 7/4 pp a winner of a hurdle and 3 chases, the last was a chase win last week over todays distance,now back over hurdles off the same mark,should be able to run a good race here,ap mccoy takes the ride again,won on it last week,

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 25th October 1.30 Southwell Bonnie Prince Blue 1pt win @ 12/1 Bet365 This horse is a 5 time winners at this track over his career and he looked to be back in form last time out over an inadequate 6f at Hamilton where he finished a staying on 3rd on heavy ground. A return to this track will help even though he hasn't won off a mark this high for a long time. Hopefully tomorrow he won't find himself so far back as he does at times at Southwell, but he should be staying on as well as anything if they go hard up front.

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 25th October 8.10 Wolverhampton - Imperator Augustus - 16/1 Bet365 Quite a weak race this, few of these very much unproven over 7f and 11/4 on Sunley Pride isnt the worse price, the way he won lto in a strongly run affair looks decent form. But at 16/1 i quite like Imperator Augustus dropped into class 5 handicap back down to 7f. His last win last year is strong form and if anywhere near that he would have a good chance. Showed promise on a couple of starts this year before a poor run lto, dont think he really stays 8f that well and 7f is his best trip.

[BARNSLEYCHOP]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 25th October 4.40 SOUTHWELL SUN SEAL @ 8/1 Paddy power BOG .5ew Unexposed 3yo who had produced 2 encouraging runs before being very disappointing on hcap debut, there were excuses that day (very soft ground) and had stayed on well at Bath over 1m 2f which suggests todays 1m 4f should be well within his compass. Mark of 72 looks reasonable for a stable in decent form and a fantastic strike rate of 25% at the track (31% with his 3yo's)

[smith17]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 25th October 16.30 Carlisle: Seedless, 13/2 Betfred, win Seedless was second lto in a handicap chase over 2 miles. She runs in a hurdle race today and over a furlong further which will suit as she was staying on strongly lto. Before that she won a beginner's chase by 11L with the runner up winning nicely nto. The ground isn't a problem as her last two wins have been on similar ground. She has raced mainly over further than today's distance but I think 17f on a testing track on soft ground could be perfect for her. Donald McCain is having a good season with a 24% strike rate. Jockey Paul O'Brien has only had three rides since moving to the UK and joining McCain's stable. He already has one winner and from watching his rides he looks more than capable and claims a huge ten pounds.

[bartrum]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 25th October 16.40 southwell - Danube River 7/2 Laddies I think the extra couple of furlongs will suit this one. Off a mark of 74 which is 1lb lower than his last run (2nd by a neck). Has won for the jockey and although this is his 1st run at the track, he has won a maiden at ling in march. Trainer/jockey speaks for itself and in a poor race i am happy to take 7/2 about DR which is ready to win!!!

[chris34]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 25th October 3.35 Southwell The flying 5f is something rather refreshing during the winter months the only straight races we see during the winter campaign and some horses revel in it because at this low level many struggle to come from off the pace. Both having A Good Time and Fama Mac are 4lb ahead of the handicapper and identically matched as when finishing 2^nd and 3^rd in same race at Nottingham they were beaten by an exposed sort that form doesn’t look that strong. Fama Mac sire stats are not great and Havin A Good Time sire has yet to have a runner on surface but it is worth noting his 2 wins have come on fast polytrack and fast turf so concern about this slower surface. Littlesuzie hasn’t been seen for nearly a year since finishing 2^nd over this trip at Kempton given a 2lb rise and far from exposed but concern is hasn’t been seen since then and did go well fresh last year. I felt Greek Island was an interesting runner returned to this surface. Having once been with Godolphin and placed in handicaps off marks in the mid 70’s, still a maiden though and not hit same heights since but couple of better efforts recently offer some hope recently including when 2^nd on first try on this surface over 7f showing plenty of speed today and might just be worth a try at this minimum trip well drawn in stall 6. 1pt win Greek Island 6/1 VC

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 25th October 3:05 Southwell - Double Your Money - Back Has won here before which is a massive plus at Southwell and on form and figures looks standout in this company today. He looks head and shoulders above the rest and could win this relatively hard held 1pt win @ sp

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 25th October 500 Car: Super Duty (Evens Bet365) Decent racing today over jumps but a lot of tricky races and i'll row in with Super Duty from the McCain yard making his debut over fences. Very game sort who was second to Simonsig when last seen at Aintree and looks the type to improve this season. The 2m trip is a slight concern but it does take some getting here at Carlisle with its very stiff finish so should get away with it in this grade. The opposition looks full of types who may improve for the run like Merry King and Yurok and the danger is obviously Nuts N Bolts but on past form Super Duty should beat him on level weights.

[markmywords]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 25th October 18:10 Wolv Provisional - Bit of a wild stab here as last 2 runs finished 9/9 22lengths and 6/6 57 lengths. But is dropping from listed company in April to last 2 runs class 3 to todays class5. Is dropping from a mark of 85 to topweight on 75. Last 2 runs have been ovr 10F and fizzled down end of race hoping the drop in class and distance helps. 0.5EW 40/1 bet365

[fosterbet5]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 25th October 14:10 ludlow HOLD COURT 3/1 BETFRED has the best form on off here , a few interesting rivals in clalf who moves to jumps today and bab al salam , seems certianly a good horse in the making but it realy starting to lose patience with the furguson horses coming just short this season so im opposing but does stand a good chance . HC has 2 wins which are the only wins in this race , both in bumpers including his first run and win which was at this track . finished 9th but that was in listed company and should seen to be going very close in this company

[santos_]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 25th October Carlisle 4.30 - Ahyaknowyaself 1pts win (3/1 Bet365) In good form of late and was a clear cut winner two runs back at Sedgefield and also stayed on well to finish second lto at Ffos Las. Looks a solid option here.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 25th October 2.00 Southwell - 1pt win Maz @ 9/1 (Ladbrokes) Won on the polytrack in March but was a big drifter in the market on her next few runs and ran accordingly. Suggested that the betting is a good way to monitor her chances and her two most recent efforts have been more encouraging. The Alan Bailey yard are going pretty well now and there's been some support for this runner today. The all-weather suits and I feel the fibresand will also. Her only win came fresh so the month and a bit off is no issue and I fancy her to go close.

[Falbrav]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 25th October GREEK ISLANDS 3.35 Southwell. 1 point win. Drop to 5f quite a big question, but I feel it's worth taking a chance that he'll show enough speed to deal with it on this slower of the aw surfaces. Drops to a mark of 60 which can only help and many come into the race out of form. At the prices it's well worth taking the chance that 5f suits, as if it does, then he should go very well. 11/2 Bet365 BOG

[fintron]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 25th October 3.35 Southwell Steel City Boy - Im trying a different policy on the AW this year, of backing jockeys rather than horses I like on form. The reason being, half of the jockeys seem useless on the AW and never know how to ride the tracks. This one has Morris on, and he is one of the leading AW jockeys. A dual C&D winner, he's within 2lb of when last winning over C&D and previous experience of the sand here is usually an advantage. 12/1 Bet 365, 1 pt win

[egg]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 25th October LAYALI DUBAI #7.10 Wolverhampton# 6/1(>Bet365) * going to take a chance on the Godolphin filly despite the wide draw. Backed this on lto when second over CD and it was her first worthwhile form. Street Sense colts have started well on the Wolverhampton although the fillies have yet to strike. Early days for this Sire so I'll chance her tonight. 1pt win

[Verisimilitude]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 25th October Blackdown Fair 6.10 Wolverhampton. 0.5 points each way. The draw puts us in at a bigger price than we should be, but I think the draw can be worked around. James Millman is a good jockey, so will hopefully drop him in off the pace, then with knowing he stays on well, it should be a case of hoping the race doesn't get away from him and the gaps fall just right. A bit of a gamble, but with knowing he has the ability and a decent price, it's worth a pop. 20/1 Bet365 (bog)

[smith17]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 25th October

16.30 Carlisle: Seedless' date= 13/2 Betfred, win Seedless was second lto in a handicap chase over 2 miles. She runs in a hurdle race today and over a furlong further which will suit as she was staying on strongly lto. Before that she won a beginner's chase by 11L with the runner up winning nicely nto. The ground isn't a problem as her last two wins have been on similar ground. She has raced mainly over further than today's distance but I think 17f on a testing track on soft ground could be perfect for her. Donald McCain is having a good season with a 24% strike rate. Jockey Paul O'Brien has only had three rides since moving to the UK and joining McCain's stable. He already has one winner and from watching his rides he looks more than capable and claims a huge ten pounds.

Non runner. 19.40 Wolverhampton: Silke Top, 25/1 Stan James, win Silke Top finished fourth lto on heavy going which didn't suit over 10f. Before that she won a maiden at Brighton over a mile. She attempted to make all but was joined and headed by the 8/11 fav about a 1½f out but she showed a great attitude to get back to the lead and she won by 1L. She finished strongly that day which would suggest today's distance of 9½f will suit. She was dropped six pounds by the handicapper after her last run and her jockey takes off another five to leave her on a very competitive mark. She drops to class 5 today having run in class 4 lto. She has run well here before finishing a 1L second in her only run at this course. Trainer William Jarvis has a good record here with his three year olds with a 20% strike rate and he has a decent 13% strike rate with all his runners here in the last five years. Young jockey Michael Murphy is having an incredible debut season, with 28 winners from 149 rides for a lsp of £71.76. Half his winners have come on three year olds from just 55 rides. Trainer and jockey have a decent partnership with 2 winners from 8 runs/rides.