Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football

[Machine]

Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football

Just think it's got a touch advanced a bit quick! No worries

Well its not everyday someone comes here saying he cant get 60-70k bets on is it. :eek Cant wait for the inevitable sales pitch...... or am I being a wee bit cynicle ;)

[Sand87]

Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football You're being deliberately facetious. I notice you didn't latch on to the 700,000? You know they are examples. And the point isn't that I can't get 70k bets on. It's that if I do, I have to accept a very low margin. Or do you bet on an exchange where there is no competition and an endless stream of very wealthy mugs prepared to accept shockingly poor value bets for huge sums?

[pinkisntwell]

Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football Of course stake size does not affect your yield --- but only if you're betting on paper. If you're doing real bets with real money against real bookmakers then you will come to know very fast that it is much easier to find high yield opportunities when the allowed (for bookmakers) or available to be matched (for betting exchanges) stakes are low. In other words: For a given betting offer the probability that it is of value is inversely related to its allowed stakes. But the thread started on a wrong premise: It is absolutely ignorant to expect a 10% yield on high-liquidity football markets. The more realistic figure would be about, say, 3%. But then you would need to stake 100k per month to have an expected profit of 3k. In other words you should be staking 25k per week. It is difficult to get that much money down on the prices you want, i.e. on the prices that will sustain your 3% yield. In my opinion, and merely with the considerations outlined in this paragraph, the task of earning 3k per month is already so difficult that it can be safely considered as impossible. But there are other costs that are maybe not visible at first glance. In economics they are called opportunity costs. When faced with two investments, A and B of which only one can be undertaken then the opportunity cost of undertaking A is the profit that would be obtained from B. Now, we all know that sustaining a high yield (the aforementioned 3%) is only possible if you consistently take the best price that is on offer. But the sports betting market is not a regulated single-point market like the stock exchange. In order to get best price you have to keep accounts with several bookmakers. I would say you would need at least 3 accounts. But those accounts would have to be funded with at least 50k each at any one time, since you expect to be betting about 25k per week. So you would need to have 150k tied up across your accounts. Now, assuming you're in the EU or in the US the inflation rate at your country would be around 2-4%; then I would expect you would be able to get around a 7% interest rate for a fixed-term 12-month deposit of 150k. This means that if you kept that 150k in the bank you would get 10.5k after a year. If the inflation in your country is higher then the interest rates would also be higher, and you can adjust the figures accordingly. So that's 10.5k pure opportunity cost that has to be deducted from any winnings you made from your betting, i.e. the 3k times 12 = 36k. You just lost about a third of that profit. There are other costs as well --- Moving that much money to and from Betfair, for example, would cost you quite a bit in transactional charges.

Step 1: You determine how you will create an edge. Step 2: You test your system using data from hundreds of competiutions over dozens of seasons. (the data IS available with a bit of effort)

That is golden advice. And I'm not referring to the steps themselves, which are evident to anyone who starts out making a model. Rather, I'm referring to their order. Step 1 definitely has to be before Step 2. But in my experience if you complete the steps in this order you will never find a statistically-significant profit at the end of Step 2. Try it. In practice most models are built by looking at the data and finding a betting strategy that would have worked. This is simply overfitting, a well-known problem in Artificial Intelligence. That's why all models work well on past data but never make a profit once you really start betting them. Of course, there are ways to rectify this issue, i.e. splitting your data into training and testing sets, but doing that will lead you back to reality.

[Machine]

Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football

And the point isn't that I can't get 70k bets on. It's that if I do, I have to accept a very low margin.

So its all hypothetical then, bit of a waste of time then. Its a bit like saying if I could fly I could wear a stupid blue jumper with a big red 's' on it

Or do you bet on an exchange where there is no competition and an endless stream of very wealthy mugs prepared to accept shockingly poor value bets for huge sums?

If you did (which I very much doubt ) have 60k to put on a (say) football match you would take what you could on the market with your edge then lay off the rest on the other 2 markets because they have no edge so you would be getting your 'value' that way.

[Sand87]

Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football Look, what I am telling you is not something that can be argued about. It is a fact. A fact of betting exchanges, of financial markets, of consumer markets. You either don't understand me or you don't understand markets. I have tried my best to explain it to you.

[Sand87]

Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football "If you did (which I very much doubt ) have 60k to put on a (say) football match you would take what you could on the market with your edge then lay off the rest on the other 2 markets because they have no edge so you would be getting your 'value' that way." Correct. But your margin will be slim. Argue against that. And then write a book because you'll be a very rich man.

[Machine]

Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football I understand betting markets a lot better than you think mate! So stop trying to make out your some superstar and were all idiots. All you do is talk in riddles add no valid points. Its all if 60k this if 70k that IMO all bullsh*t If you did (which again is doubtfull) deal with that sort of money why in gods name would you be hanging about a message board. Your betting more than JP and hes never been inclined to pop in here and educate the masses. Give us a break and get back to the real world your getting tiresome.

[Datapunter]

Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football Sand87, if you mean sustain 'prices' THEN SAY SO, don't use 'ROI' or 'Yield' or 'margin' as they mean something different. As for geting matched, first of all i don't think you understand the basics of betting or you are ignorant of the most important aspect, like most people btw, which is RISK. If your betting takes place at an odds range of 50.00 your stakes will automatically be small, and no problem at all to get matched. This is inherent to the risk factor. If you want to maintain a low risk factor and you use the example of 1000pounds at 50.00 is as unrealistic as it gets because at a low risk factor your betting bank would need to be a few million. If your betting takes places at odds-on, so below 2.00, you can use substantial stakes in relation to your bank as even then your risk remains low. This is the elementary relationship between Yield, Strike Rate, and Risk. If you don't understand that relationship, or you simply ignore one of the factors, then your betting just isn't grounded in reality.

[Kolo]

Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football I am friends with people who bet 6 figures on some games and post on internet forums

[Machine]

Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football

I am friends with people who bet 6 figures on some games and post on internet forums

So am I now :eyes (but I wouldnt consider them friends as such ) Kolo You say your new to gambling, why not ask these 6 figure betting buddie's of yours for advice, Im sure theyd be only too keen to help I know mine would ;)

[Sand87]

Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football Right, lets try something else. And Machine, try, like me, to remain civil. Getting angry and swearing is a little indicative. I'll paste this from one of my previous posts. Forget everything that has been said before, do you agree that this is likely: Year Turnover POT 1 £100,000 6% 2 £400,000 5% 3 £1.2m 1% 4 £8m 0.5% 5 £16m 0.1%

[Machine]

Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football All depends on the risk v reward (as data rightly said) Chances of going broke drawdown Fluidity of market You cannot just stick up numbers and say ...Oh 100k should give you a POT of (approx) 6% it a ludicrous assumption

[Sand87]

Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football Oh my days. It's a hypothetical example, the numbers are irrelevant I'm trying to point out the relationship between them.

[Kolo]

Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football Sands numbers are arbitrary but I definitely agree with his general hypothesis. My post about being a neophyte was not to be taken seriously

[Datapunter]

Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football As for getting matched i'll tell you a story. This was back in 2004-2005 something like that. I made 30000 euro profit that season betting on football teams to win their match. I was using stakes at first of 2500 euro and by the end up to 5000 euro. There was no signficant pronblem getting matched at the prices i wanted. ( read prices needed ) Most of the time Betfair was enough, and yeah sometimes i needed to wait a while to get matched, or drop one or 2 ticks but that was not significant overall. Sometimes i'd find a better price at a bookmaker. And yeah, not all bookmakers accept those stakes but plenty do, And yeah, you need to look around to find the best price. And yeah, sometimes you need to make the effort of calling them on the phone as you exceed the limits available on the website. So what, you need to make an effort, nothing new there. So one time i wanted to bet on Anderlecht in the Belgium premier league, i found the top price to be 1.26 at betCRIS, at the time a leading bookmaker for the US market, Website would only allow me 1000 euro so i gave them a call on the phone. Me: i'd like Anderlecht to win 5000 euro to win 1300 ( the operators are all american so it's easier to say it like that rather than 5000 @ 1.26 ) Them: Ok, i need to check that with one of our supervisors as it's more than the website limit, please hold on. Them: We're happy to take that bet, anything else ? Me: Nope, that's it. Guy does the readback, i confirm, et voila bet placed. The reason i remember this so accurately is this, after i put the phone down i refreshed the screen and found they had moved the odds from 1.26 to 1.20 ( remember they had accepted my bet at 1.26) So that was one, actually the only one i actually know for sure, where i made the line move. Yep, moi, just me, all on my own, made the line move. Nice if you're able to say that :lol

[Machine]

Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football Better than Cannon and Ball you 2. (kolo & Sands)

[Sand87]

Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football

As for getting matched i'll tell you a story. This was back in 2004-2005 something like that. I made 30000 euro profit that season betting on football teams to win their match. I was using stakes at first of 2500 euro and by the end up to 5000 euro. There was no signficant pronblem getting matched at the prices i wanted. ( read prices needed ) Most of the time Betfair was enough, and yeah sometimes i needed to wait a while to get matched, or drop one or 2 ticks but that was not significant overall. Sometimes i'd find a better price at a bookmaker. And yeah, not all bookmakers accept those stakes but plenty do, And yeah, you need to look around to find the best price. And yeah, sometimes you need to make the effort of calling them on the phone as you exceed the limits available on the website. So what, you need to make an effort, nothing new there. So one time i wanted to bet on Anderlecht in the Belgium premier league, i found the top price to be 1.26 at betCRIS, at the time a leading bookmaker for the US market, Website would only allow me 1000 euro so i gave them a call on the phone. Me: i'd like Anderlecht to win 5000 euro to win 1300 ( the operators are all american so it's easier to say it like that rather than 5000 @ 1.26 ) Them: Ok, i need to check that with one of our supervisors as it's more than the website limit, please hold on. Them: We're happy to take that bet, anything else ? Me: Nope, that's it. Guy does the readback, i confirm, et voila bet placed. The reason i remember this so accurately is this, after i put the phone down i refreshed the screen and found they had moved the odds from 1.26 to 1.20 ( remember they had accepted my bet at 1.26) So that was one, actually the only one i actually konw for sure, where i made the line move. Yep, moi, just me, all on my own, made the line move. Nice if you're able to say that :lol

I enjoy reading anecdotes like that :) It must have been a nice feeling. If you want to experience it again, try and place a large telephone bet with Ladbrokes on something slightly obscure. After they've refused you, watch them cut their price. I know somebody who used to back said obscure team and then phone round all the bookies with unrealisticly large bets. Once the books cut their prices the market falls and he got out. Don't think he managed that more than a handful of times but it was fun to watch. That was a couple of years ago now, doubt it would work anymore.

[Machine]

Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football

As for getting matched i'll tell you a story. This was back in 2004-2005 something like that. I made 30000 euro profit that season betting on football teams to win their match. I was using stakes at first of 2500 euro and by the end up to 5000 euro. There was no signficant pronblem getting matched at the prices i wanted. ( read prices needed ) Most of the time Betfair was enough, and yeah sometimes i needed to wait a while to get matched, or drop one or 2 ticks but that was not significant overall. Sometimes i'd find a better price at a bookmaker. And yeah, not all bookmakers accept those stakes but plenty do, And yeah, you need to look around to find the best price. And yeah, sometimes you need to make the effort of calling them on the phone as you exceed the limits available on the website. So what, you need to make an effort, nothing new there. So one time i wanted to bet on Anderlecht in the Belgium premier league, i found the top price to be 1.26 at betCRIS, at the time a leading bookmaker for the US market, Website would only allow me 1000 euro so i gave them a call on the phone. Me: i'd like Anderlecht to win 5000 euro to win 1300 ( the operators are all american so it's easier to say it like that rather than 5000 @ 1.26 ) Them: Ok, i need to check that with one of our supervisors as it's more than the website limit, please hold on. Them: We're happy to take that bet, anything else ? Me: Nope, that's it. Guy does the readback, i confirm, et voila bet placed. The reason i remember this so accurately is this, after i put the phone down i refreshed the screen and found they had moved the odds from 1.26 to 1.20 ( remember they had accepted my bet at 1.26) So that was one, actually the only one i actually know for sure, where i made the line move. Yep, moi, just me, all on my own, made the line move. Nice if you're able to say that :lol

Would those bets have been from your 'Value' football bets thread,that seemed to be going well, then the inevitable happened. Hope you got out before too much damage was done.

[Datapunter]

Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football

I'm trying to point out the relationship between them

And you seem to be failing at grasping this relationship, at least you're not putting things in a realistic context. Do you, or have you, ever actually looked at the amount of risk that is involved with the betting you do ? Determined your bank, stake size, yield, number of bets, average odds of winning bets, strike rate and then.... calculate the % risk of going bancrupt in any given season. Bank 10000, stake 500, yield 6%, 300 bets, odds 1.30, 75% strike rate.... risk of going bancrupt 5% ( note the numbers aren't 'real' just off the top of my head ) And then thought well, that means i'll go bancrupt once in 20 seasons, i can accept that. Because THAT is what you need to do for your betting to have a fundation in reality.

[Datapunter]

Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football

Would those bets have been from your 'Value' football bets thread,that seemed to be going well, then the inevitable happened.

Yes, that was the most profitable season out of 6 if i remember correctly.

Hope you got out before too much damage was done.

Unfortunately, the 1 in 20 happened the very next season. Been there, done that, got no t-shirt :lol He who has the time can review the thread here, it's all in there, the good, the bad, the ugly.

[Kolo]

Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football

Better than Cannon and Ball you 2. (kolo & Sands)

ty

[betting101]

Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football Oh my god, these guys(kolo and sand)....its like a comedy

[Kolo]

Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football How exactly is it?

[Sand87]

Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football

And you seem to be failing at grasping this relationship, at least you're not putting things in a realistic context.

The guy asked for practical steps to make £3000 a month trading. To do this you need to turnover a huge volume. Everything I've said in this thread has been with that in mind. If you turnover a huge volume with the hope of making a profit then your margin is slim - in real life. On paper there are of course theoretical ways that it may not be but when the money is down on an exchange like Betfair it becomes a fact. I talked about strike rate on the first page.

[betting101]

Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football betting OR trading

[Datapunter]

Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football

To do this you need to turnover a huge volume

You assume you need huge stakes which is unrealistic because in reality you'll never do that as the risk is too high, THAT's what you need to get. Yes, to make substantial amounts of profit in a short period of time like a month you need high turnover. But that can be done with small to medium stakes, at least stakes that you can get matched at the price you want given a bit of effort, as long as you can manage asufficient number of bets. Here's another thing you seem to dismiss. If you have a yield of 10% but can't get matched at the priced you want then you need to start taking lower prices in order to get your turnover. That will lower your yield. (yes, i your point perfectly) SO WHAT. I would have no problem with that if it means i can achieve a high turnover. I'd be very happy dropping to 1% yield if that means i can get 20 times as much cash on. Think about it, examine the relationsships, 10% low turnover or 1% high turnover, you know which one generates most profit. (at the same level of risk) My objection to your statements is that you dismiss the possibility of making 3000 a month off hand as you assume you can't get the required stakes matched at top prices. That is simply not true. In some cases it may be true which means you go back to the drawing board but not in all cases. You need to consider all factors. p.s. I notice you haven't answered my question about risk.

Do you, or have you, ever actually looked at the amount of risk that is involved with the betting you do ? Determined your bank, stake size, yield, number of bets, average odds of winning bets, strike rate and then.... calculate the % risk of going bancrupt in any given season. Bank 10000, stake 500, yield 6%, 300 bets, odds 1.30, 75% strike rate.... risk of going bancrupt 5% ( note the numbers aren't 'real' just off the top of my head ) And then thought well, that means i'll go bancrupt once in 20 seasons, i can accept that.

[MPLouis]

Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football

Step 2: You test your system using data from hundreds of competiutions over dozens of seasons. (the data IS available with a bit of effort)

I take it that's supposed to read 'competitions'? If so, can you explain what you mean? What sort of competitions do you mean, and how do you get data from them?

[MPLouis]

Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football

a yield of 10% on football is highly optimistic.

That seems to the view of most of the people who've posted so far. Sorry if this is a stupid question, but what would you say about some of the football betting systems in 'Systems and Strategy' which claim to have made more than 10% over a period - http://forum.punterslounge.com/forums/21-Systems-amp-Strategy-Forum

[MPLouis]

Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football

i don't think you understand the basics of betting or you are ignorant of the most important aspect, like most people btw, which is RISK. If your betting takes place at an odds range of 50.00 your stakes will automatically be small, and no problem at all to get matched. This is inherent to the risk factor. If you want to maintain a low risk factor and you use the example of 1000pounds at 50.00 is as unrealistic as it gets because at a low risk factor your betting bank would need to be a few million. If your betting takes places at odds-on, so below 2.00, you can use substantial stakes in relation to your bank as even then your risk remains low. This is the elementary relationship between Yield, Strike Rate, and Risk. If you don't understand that relationship, or you simply ignore one of the factors, then your betting just isn't grounded in reality.

DP, I have trouble understanding your posts sometimes, but I do think you make a good point about risk. (One of the things I like about Pinnacle is that when you place a bet they actually use the term, e.g. "risking £10 to win £4.90" - they are the only bookmaker I have seen who use the word 'risk' when you are placing a bet). I think I pay too much importance to what I could win, and not enough to what I could lose. I try to have some control over my stakes as a way of limiting my risk. When I'm being sensible, I try to limit my stakes to around 2% of my 'bank'.

[MPLouis]

Re: Practical steps to earning £3,000 per month from betting on football

It is absolutely ignorant to expect a 10% yield on high-liquidity football markets. The more realistic figure would be about' date=' say, 3%.[/quote'] Do you think there is a similarity between football markets and share markets? Because I believe that in share-trading markets, in general, the bigger the market the lower the margin. Although I'm still not quite convinced that this is relevant - because when I started the thread I really had betting in mind, not trading.