Eggs All Weather

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Hi all, I'm going to start my all weather horse racing selections as its that time of the season when the turf form is all over the place and I'm not really a huge National Hunt bettor. Selections will be based on a lot of various factors which would be too much to go into but primarily Sire and course statistics. Basically I highlight horses that on breeding should adapt to the all weather racing surfaces, when highlighted the race/races will be analyzed in terms of form, trainer form, draw, horse ability/handicap etc etc. It does particularly well when horses are new to that surface and highlights their chances much better than blind guessing. Obviously it's not set in stone that the selections will adapt but its should be an educated guess which is what most horse racing is about. I will try and get the selections out the night before for those races priced up or as soon as i can the day of racing for maidens etc. I will also give the main Statistic(although there will be several) as to why the selections are made. I'll also include a bookmaker offering the best EP. I can't guarentee you will get these prices so I run an SP bank too although I won't personally be betting SP. 100pt bank. 1pt win level stakes. :drums

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Re: Eggs All Weather Today's Selections. I took prices about these last night but have been busy this morning so unable to post until now. I'll just use best odds available at this time. 17.45 Wol. MR OPTIMISTIC # 18/1(betvictor) # Kyllachy progeny CD= 17 wins from 99 runners +£50 LSP. Horse hinted at return to form with 5th over CD last run. 16.45 Wol. BIN SINGSPIEL #16/1(Bet365) #Singspiel 2yo colts 5/20 for nigh on level. with a 25% SR worth chancing at big odds. 19.45 Wol. BLACK DAVE #6/1(Betvictor) #Excellent Art 2yo colt 2/6 +£3.50. Stayed on nicely over CD last run on first attempt here, same mark today. 20.15 Wol. THIS IS NICE #8/1(PP) #Exceed And Excel 2yo fillys 10-49 +£34. ran 2nd over CD three runs back on first attempt here.

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Re: Eggs All Weather well that didn't go too well for starters although it doesnt look too bad once analyzed afterwards. Mr Optimistic drifted badly in the betting to 33/1 at one point which didn't inspire confidence. Drawn 9 he was dropped in off the pace and raced wide throughout and had to make his challenge about 6 deep of the final bend. He stayed on under considerate handling into 6th place beaten about 6L. He will surely win soon off his plummeting handicap mark. Bin Singspiel was backed into 8/1 but played up badly at the start and almost refused to enter the stalls. He then missed the break by several lengths before gradually catching back up and challenging around the last bend. Unfortunately his run petered out, not surprisingly, and he finished 3rd. A promising debut nonetheless and added to my notebook. Black Dave continued the nights theme of starting sluggishly although he was bumped a bit on leaving the gates. Again he dropped out plum last and was being scrubbed along from some way out before keeping on well up the inside rail, unfortunately the early lead dropped on him and a horse on his outside shut the door on him. The jockey accepted that and eased him home. Will give him another go when drawn a bit better. This Is Nice was the disappointment of the night and held every chance throughout the race from his inside draw but simply wasn't good enough and is therefore not getting backed over CD in future. Ironically this one was the best backed of the night from 11's into 9/2!!! Loss on day -4pts Bank 96pts.

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Re: Eggs All Weather J.Tate trainer of Bin Singspiel had the winner Grilletto when I chose to back Black Dave. Grilletto's Sire is EXCHANGE RATE and his progeny could be worth close attention when on an artificial surface. His colts now have a 50% SR and 75% place and although its early days for this first season Sire it's promising. He's also the Sire of Reckless Abandon. He's got the look of a good a/w sire with his USA pedigree being out of Danzig and a Seeking The Gold mare.

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Re: Eggs All Weather BIG WAVE #5.20 Wolverhampton# 8/1 (Bet365) #Choisir 4yo+ carrying 9st4lb+ in handicaps 4 from 11 for +£26.50 LSP. Ran eyecatcher when 3rd over CD last time out on only 2nd run on surface.

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Re: Eggs All Weather

BIG WAVE #5.20 Wolverhampton# 8/1 (Bet365) #Choisir 4yo+ carrying 9st4lb+ in handicaps 4 from 11 for +£26.50 LSP. Ran eyecatcher when 3rd over CD last time out on only 2nd run on surface.

Big Wave non runner. SPENSLEY 8.20 Wolverhampton. 7/1 in places. 8/1 Boylesports #J.Fanshawes' gelding is back down to a winning mark and ran encouragingly last time out. He is a Kempton specialist but having never tried Wolverhampton it's worth chancing he'll take to it. K.Fallon in saddle for the topweight and both him and Fanshawe had 20% or above strike rates here.

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Re: Eggs All Weather Spensley ran ok without ever really looking like winning. Fallon had him just off the pace and tried to keep in tabs round the home turn where after he just stayed on one pace. On to today. The a/w racing today is really competitive, particularly the Lingfield card. The maiden races are represented by a lot of the top yards and getting an edge is difficult. The Godolphin horses have fantastic strike rates on the a/w and Bin Surroor especially. I will probably have some small stakes doubles and trebles etc on those runners as they're likely to go off short enough prices. One of those runners at decent odds will be the bet today. PRICE IS TRUTH #3.35 Lingfield# 5/1(Bet365) #M Al Zarooni Distorted Humor colt. Ran well enough in a decent Newmarket 6f maiden where he was out the back before staying on well down the outside only to be hampered when hitting top gear. Drawn 5 today should get him a nice position and up another furlong should suit. Zarooni has a 32% SR here and Dettori the same, Zarooni 7 from 17 with 2yo at track and 9-22 on all a/w when using a jockey with a track SR of over 20% for a 40% Win SR and 73% place SR. ZING WING #5.45 Lingfield# 14/1(bet365) #P D Evans Hawk Wing filly won first time out for the stable two runs ago at Kempton over 7f class 5. After getting blocked in her run she switched wide and flew the final furlong to win on the line. She then ran in Class 4 where she may have used too much up early after being drawn wide and challenging sooner than ideal but back in this grade, up a furlong and drawn well she's worth a punt at big odds. A Kirby back on board today. running bank £95 running profit/loss -£5

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Re: Eggs All Weather Price Is Truth ran ok but nowhere near winning in 4th place leaving the impression a further step up in trip is needed. Zing Wing ran like a drain, after breaking well Kirby took a pull and dropped it in the ruck, never involved after drifting to 20's on track. The 7.10 tonight at Kempton has some well bred fillies on view. Godolphin have a strong hand but Stoute, Gosden,E. Dunlop and the likes are in there too. Stoutes filly cost 340,000 and has a great looking US pedigree, Gosdens Pivotal filly looks the part on breeding. Another interesting runner is the B.Meehan filly out of Speightstown whoms colts have been doing well on the a/w, she didnt run well on debut behind Newfangled but that was soft ground, Meehans debutants often need the run and improve dramatically for it in some instances and at 33/1 she may be worth a small e/w bet. Stoutes is anywhere from 12/1 to 22/1(StanJames) and also could be worth an e/w nibble. For this thread, although I might play on the race, it will be a notebook arce as the most likely winner is the favourite(Shuruq) and its too short at 8/11. The second division of the fillies maiden doesn't look half as strong and the Godolphin filly Hamla is worth a pt bet at the odds. Out of Cape Cross she should be forward enough to be in the shake up although drawn a touch wide. Gosden's filly has had a run at Newmarket and ran well enough in the class 2 event but again 5/4 is a tad short for me. HAMLA #7.40 Kempton# 8/1(Betvictor)

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Re: Eggs All Weather Hamla beaten out of sight, Godolphin horses ran poorly over the day bar a couple. Bank 92 Profit Loss -8

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Re: Eggs All Weather Been studying the Wolverhampton card for tomorrow and have one picked out which is priced up. DARK FALCON #4.30 Wolverhampton# 20/1(Bet365) # J.Tate Dark Angel gelding runs in this poor race with most been running in claimers at the like. Dark Falcons a/w runs give it a live chance in this company and only his last run at Southwell a poor one when tried in cheekpieces for the first time. If he can reproduce anything like his 4th to Delft at Lingfield off a mark of 72 he will go close tomorrow off 65.

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Re: Eggs All Weather The 2.30 at Wolverhampton may be an opportunity for a decent priced winner. After trawling the stats on 2yo @ Wolves only 3 horses warrant any attention. Although a few of the other that have ran look ok most of their sires havent had any 2yo winners here. 1. North Pole~ Compton Place, 2yo, 6/45 maidens, +£6.49. only 2-34 at 5f though. 2. Lobellia~ Indesatchel, 2yo, fillies show very healthy profit albeit a low SR. 3/21 +£30 3. Prom Dress~ Mount Nelson, 2yo, 2/5 +£14 in maidens. Although the filly Lobelia throws up a chance at stats she's rated 30lb lower than the top rated, maybe the change of surface can bring a lot of improvement, shes 33/1. North Pole has at least showed he's got some ability, hewas a beaten Fav over CD first time out but left the impression that he needs a step up in trip although in this field he may be good enough anyway. he's 4/1 Prom Dress on debut today looks the one to chance. His sire has started off well on the a/w with his 2yo and Prom Dress may well be good enough to play a major part. he's 12/1 PROM DRESS#2.30 Wolv# 12/1(Bet365)

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Re: Eggs All Weather The 6.00 at Kempton has thrown up some interesting stats for this 2yo Nursery. 1.Mar Mar ~ Invincible Spirit filly.... 8/48 filly @ Kemp -£16, H'cap 1-12 -£7, 9st4lb+ 1-6 -£1, Trainer course 20%+ 3-8 +£3, SP 2/1-9/2 for 7/10 2.Magical Rose ~ Elusive City filly 0/27 fillies @ Kemp. 3.Aussie Reigns ~ Aussie Rules Colt 0/7 @ Kemp. 4.Arctic Admiral ~ Verglas Colt 8/25 @ Kemp +£22, H'cap 4 from 10 +£8, 3 from 10 @8f +£3. Trainer 10-14.9% 7-17 +£19 5.Mushaakis ~ Shamardal Colt 2/14 both winners @7f The Stats show R.Hannons Arctic Admiral in a very good light. He ran well over CD against Cap O'Rushes three runs back and the winner ran in Group 3 last time out beaten 5 length. Admittedly Arctic Admiral was well beaten that day into 2nd but he was the only one to have a go at the winner and was eased when beaten. He then ran twice on soft ground and was well beaten but back on a/w today he looks a huge price @16/1. Mar Mar and Mushaarkis look like vying for favouritism and whilst slight case can be made for them in the stats I'd be looking to oppose them. ARCTIC ADMIRAL#6.00 Kempton# 16/1(Bet365) 1pt win

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Re: Eggs All Weather 3 losers today Prom Dress drifted to 33's on debut, ran green after missing break. May do better. Dark Falcon got backed in from 20s to 6s(trainer had earlier winner well backed too), Broke well but got in a duel upfront and it was blatantly obvious he would tire after that. Don't know what E.Ahern was trying to prove, should of let other front runner take lead and sit in behind. Will get another chance, with hopefully, M.Dwyer in saddle. Arctic Admiral ran well but found one too good in the end, outran odds but still no winner in thread! Bank 89pts Profit/Loss -11pts

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Re: Eggs All Weather Friday 19th WELLIESINTHEWATER #6.50 Wolverhampton# 10/1(bet365) #Footstepsinthesand 2yo Colts 3/6 at course for +£12. won CD maiden before running in Group 2 on turf, back to Class 4 nursery and well drawn in 3. PICCOLO EXPRESS #8.50 Wolverhampton# 14/1(Bet365) #3 times CD winner who's had one run back from summer break. 1lb higher than last winning mark, drawn well.

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Re: Eggs All Weather another for today CAPTAIN CRUZ #6.20 Wolverhampton# 20/1(Bet365) #sire Captain Marvelous yet to have winner on a/w but 44% placed. Ran on g/s debut over 5f, steps up another furlong today. Going to chance this one as some of the stats for other runners aren't good at all. There's another Captain Marvelous gelding in the line up on debut. The only other to consider is the two times Course runner She's Some Girl who did at least show some abilty on her last run. Inchimoku 7/1 into 11/4, Indesatchel 2yo 4/50 but all 4 winners fillies. Golden Pursuit 8/1, Pastoral Pursuits 3/36 -£28. winners colt, gelding and a filly. Mr Paranoia 9/2, " Be On The Bell 12/1, Byron Filly 0/31 Ada Lovelace 16/1- 25/1, " Pearl Noir 5/1, Milk It Mick 2yo 0/10 and 20% placed She's Some Girl 12/1 , Camacho filly 1/8 +£5, Work Ethic 7/1, Camacho Colt 0/8 and not even one placed.

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Re: Eggs All Weather Welliesinthewater and Captain Cruz non runners so I'll put up another with good stats in the 6.50. KODATISH #6.50 Wolverhampton# 20/1(Bet365) #Kodiac 2yo 8/41 for +£4. Colts 3/7 for +£15, 5f 4/18, H'caps 4/13 for+£19. First run on A/w tonight but breeding suggests he should take to it. Won 5f Bath(C6) maiden on good ground, two of three runs since then on softer ground which looks like he doesn't like and also tried in C2 last time. Back in his grade tonight and may go well at big odds.

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Re: Eggs All Weather Both selections placed at big odds but still awaiting the first winner. Bank 87pts Profit/Loss -13pts.

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Re: Eggs All Weather Saturday 20th BOLD CROSS #6.20 Wolverhampton# 9/1(Bet365) #Not so much a stat pick but a form pick, ran well enough on his last two runs over CD to suggest he can still be a force in this event. Drawn 1 so will have to be out the blocks to get a good position. SILVER ALLIANCE #9.20 Wolverhampton# 14/1(Bet365) #Again a form pick, Had two runs back from a 6 week summer break, 2lb below his last winning mark, drawn 3 and should go well at good odds. SAUNTA #7.50 Wolverhampton# 7/1(Bet365) # Invincible Spirit 3yo fillies 11/54 for +£34, ran last of three on debut on soft ground. Breeding suggest this should be her surface and a few of these runners are starting to look exposed so she may improve enough to play a hand.

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Re: Eggs All Weather bit unlucky tonight. Both Silver Alliance(4th) and Bold Cross(2nd) had there runs stopped at vital times. Saunta ran ok first time on the surface without ever looking like winning once they turned for home. Bank 84pts Profit/Loss -16

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Re: Eggs All Weather Hopefully a winner is just around the corner after several near misses of late. FLASHBANG #4.30 Lingfield# 16/1(Bet365) *Dubawi 3yo+ 6f 4-6 +£23, H'cap 9-37 +£17, fillies 6-24 +£4. CD winner and off last winning mark and nicely drawn in stall 3. MAC GILLE EOIN #5.00 Lingfield# 10/1(Bet365) * Hinted at return to form last time out at Wolverhampton for new yard and runs off his lowest mark for 5 years. Hasn't won over CD but has ran well enough on the surface before. This is the lowest grade he's ran in(lto too) since 07. Hopefully the stable switch can spark a revival in the 8yo. NELINA #3.00 Lingfield# 6/1(Bet365) #Mount Nelson 2yo 3/8 on a/w with 2 fillies winning. Not had any runners at Lingfield so chance to be taken she'll act ok on it. Nelina ran well on debut to be 5th beaten a couple of lengths over 6f at Wolverhampton, up to 7f will suit as she's bred to need middle distances.

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Re: Eggs All Weather Don't seem to be carrying much luck on this thread. Flashbang was backed all day and ended up around 5/1. Held every chance turning for home but just stayed on one pace. Nelina was again a bad drifter from The R.Cowell stable and although it was at laest put into the race around the home turn it gain just stayed on one pace. I'm under the impression that the Cowell 2yo aren't worth the effort and are probably being aimed at handicaps once they've qualified. Mac Gille Eoin was backed into 8/1 and was coming with his run when a wide runner squeezed the horse on his inside which forced Mac's jockey to snatch up, he ran on again in to 4th place, he's worth perservering with. I managed to back a winner at Lingfield as i though the Gosden 2yo was just too big a price at 16/1, it helped me show a profit but not this thread! Bank 81pts Profit/Loss -19pts

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Re: Eggs All Weather Onwards and upwards, I hope CHAPTER AND VERSE #8.50 Kempton# 13/2(Bet365) *still only 3lb higher than when winning over CD in September, ran well over 8f last time out when a close 2nd. There's some good maiden races at Newmarket and Kempton. Will just watch these for future opportunities.

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Re: Eggs All Weather a short head 2nd yesterday sums it up. Was going to put up SaaBoog earlier today but it was stepping up 3f, duly bolted in @ 9s LAYALI DUBAI #7.10 Wolverhampton# 6/1(Bet365) * going to take a chance on the Godolphin filly despite the wide draw. Backed this on lto when second over CD and it was her first worthwhile form. Street Sense colts have started well on the Wolverhampton although the fillies have yet to strike. Early days for this Sire so I'll chance her tonight.

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Re: Eggs All Weather A very welcome winner last night, SDS was never in any trouble and the filly dotted up. Bank 86pts Profit/Loss -14pts I may put one up for tonight later today but nothing really stands out at the moment.

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Re: Eggs All Weather FORTUNATE BID #9.10 Wolverhampton# 8/1(Bet365) * on a winning mark and has been running quite well of late without winning. slight step up in trip should suit.

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Re: Eggs All Weather 3rd last night, ran ok without really threatening the winner. GABRIAL THE BOSS #7.45 Wolverhampton# 10/1(Betfred) #Ignore his last run as he got no run at all on the rail, previous course run was 2nd to Progenator who is favourite tonight. Gabrial the Boss has a 5lb in the weights and appeals as value. He didnt enjoy the greatest run that day when trapped out the back before challenging wide whilst Progenator had the prefect posi all the race. Progenator drawn wide tonight so may suffer some traffic issues himself. Sekumkum was also in Gabrials' last race and enjoyed a clear passage in finishing third so I'm not that concerned about turning that form neither. Street Boss progeny are yet to win on the a/w but have only had a handful of runs, his USA pedigree should be suited to these tracks.

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Re: Eggs All Weather STAR SPUN #5.10 Wolverhampton# 12/1(Bet365) #D.Barron has booked J.Spencer for this Hard Spun colts first try on the a/w. His breeding suggests this should be more to his liking than turf and he is nicely drawn in stall 2. MIDNIGHT WARRIOR #4.40 Wolverhamton# 10/1(Bet365) #J.Tates Teofilo colt ran well on his debut on turf before running down the field on his next outing. Hopefully he can bounce back to the form he showed on his first run, if is 10/1 could be good value. Teofilo progeny have a healthy profit on a/w although at Wolverhampton only 5 colts have run with 1 winning.

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Re: Eggs All Weather both ran 5th, both will most probably be effective an a/w. Bank 82 pts Profit/Loss -18pts MUNTASIR #3.45 Lingfield# 6/1(Bet365) #Distorted Humor colt that ran down the field last time out in class 2 over CD after a 5 week break.. Re-opposes several of those in front that day and dropped a handy 4lb to 89 which was same as when running well to chase home Courtesy Call at Haydock. Would expect a much better showing tomorrow.

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Re: Eggs All Weather another for today... THE TICHBORNE #2.40 Lingfield# 6/1(Bet365) #Shinko Forest progeny show an excellent £41.50 profit at this course. R.Teals gelding has run three times at Lingfield, twice on a/w and once on turf, winning all three. He's really well handicapped just now and 11lb lower than his last course a/w win. He drops into class 5 where he won two runs ago.

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Re: Eggs All Weather no wins today although i thought Muntasir would have been a lot closer with a little luck in running. Livia's Dream #3.20 Lingfield# 66/1(>Bet365) #I know it's a longshot but i do think this filly is much better than she has shown thus far. She got bogged down in the mud at Windsor last time out and should be more at home on this surface(won Kempton). It must be tempting to go the handicap route with her but Ed Walker thinks a lot of her and is willing to risk her handicap mark for some black type. Whether she's good enough to win this contest is another thing but she should out run her odds and hopefully make the frame. Layali Dubai was a winner for this thread last week and should be capable of following up under a penalty in the 3.50 at Lingfield but is a bit short @ 2/1. I may add a couple in the morning as I'm awaiting the prices for the maiden races to kick off the card. The two that catch my eye are World Map and Future Reference for the same connections as Layali Dubai. Bank 80pts Profit/Loss -20pts