Flat Racing ~ Friday 12th October

[BillyHills]

3.05 York: Acorn Web Offset Handicap (Class 2) (1m) A wide-open handicap and the ground could be the key here; if it rains anymore this could be a real test of stamina. My two against the field are No Poppy and Lord Aeryn. I think the Fahey runner looks well in with some of these on previous form and it may just be his turn on ground that wont inconvenience him. No Poppy on the other hand is bang in form but will need to negotiate beaten horses as she makes her way through late on and should reach the frame. Selections: 1pt EW Lord Aeryn 12/1 >BetVictor 1pt EW No Poppy 10/1 >Paddy Power Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/york-betting-lord-aeryn-s-turn-to-land-big-handicap-for-fahey-and-hanagan-at-york

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday 12th October *Mijhaar - York 2:30* Was fancied for the Cambridgeshire last time out, but didn't go a yard. This should be a much easier race, not as many runners. If it repeats it's run in Listed company a few starts back in the Wolferton at Ascot where it was a really close 3rd to Gatewood, it would win this hands down i reckon. This is 3 grades lower in Class 3, a big drop from Listed class. Still an unexposed horse, Varian thinks a lot of it, and if runs to it's best has a massive chance. *1 Point WIN @ 4/1 Bet365 BOG*

[Lodge]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday 12th October 15.05 - York - Green Howard @ 9/1 (Ladbrookes, PaddyPower, William Hill) Extremely consistant type who has won 5 times from career 11 starts and only been out of the places twice (both on firm ground incidently). Looks interesting stepped upto 8f for the first time having looked like he will relish this trip on a number of occasions. Won nicely lto at Yarmouth and only been put up 2lb for the victory so competitively handicapped especially as this trip could bring out more improvement. Gets the cut in the ground he wants and good jockey booked in Neil Callen.

[Lodge]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday 12th October 18.45 - Wolverhampton - Striker Torres @ 10/1 Bet365 Certainly not the easiest one to win with but ran with more promise of late and could be up to winning now dropped in both trip and grade. The former C&D winner has done all of his winning over 7f and is dropped back to that trip for the first time in 5 runs, some slight respite from the handicapper has also allowed him to drop into 0-65 grade 6 company for the first time since December 2009. As mentioned the 6yo ran well last time out when a close 4th to Mark Johnston's Copperwood and if in the same heart tomorrow should go well. Drawn nicely in stall 4 with Graham Lee taking the ride. Also forgot to add that he has had a little break to freshen him up too and that has worked in the past - it may just be a coincidence but the last 5 times he has had a break of 25 days or more since his last run he has gone close being beaten by less than 2 lengths on every occasion.

[robertob]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday 12th October 17.20 York: Icebuster @ 5/1 Bet365 Icebuster really regained his form in recent weeks staying on in eye-catching fashion twice at Sandown while responding very well to the step up in trip to 12f for the first time at Kempton two weeks ago when he finished very strongly without getting the hardest of rides. He had a wide draw to overcome that day and had to switch to the outside to get a clear run in the closing stages which surely didn't help his cause. He still finished an excellent 3rd in the end. He only gets up 1lb for this effort but switches back to the turf, but he runs again over 12f tomorrow. This Amateur Rider's Handicap looks weaker than the races he contest in recently and with the fine form he brings into the race I think he should go really close. Mr. Millman takes off another 3lb off the mark what surly helps as this guy is riding pretty well actually. It's serious business for Icebuster tomorrow and I'm pretty confident in his chance actually. 19.45 Wolverhampton: Madame St Clair @ 15/2 VC This 3yo filly is poised to win finally a race again after a couple of excellent efforts in the last number of month. She won a poor seller comfortably by 5 lengths in June, had then a small break but confirmed the promise with two fine performances at Kempton and Leicester when she finished subsequently 2nd. She had an off day at Lingfield after that but made amends at Salisbury nine days ago when she stepped up to 14f for the first time. She travelled well in rear of the field and produced a strong run on the outside of the field in softish ground conditions. The young and inexperienced jockey lost his whip 2f out unfortunately which was not an advantage in a driving finish. Madame St Clair finished a 3 lengths beaten 2nd in the end but came miles clear of eventual third. Again a really good performance which confirms that she's holding very well her form. She'll be back on the All-Weather which shouldn't be a problem as she's produced good form on this surface already. I'm a bit worried about her hold-up style though as this is not always an advantage at Wolverhampton. But I feel she has a wonderful chance to finally get her second career success anyway as she's so well in form and looks well able to win off her current mark.

[scotty657]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday 12th October Bath 2.05 April Ciel has a very good chance of notching up his 3rd career win here today. Running off the same mark than the last 3 outings, and the same 5lb claimer on board in Darren Egan, but today he has softer ground then those runs and that may well be what the doctor ordered. This horse has some very good form over soft ground bar a 7/8 although that was a much longer trip and maybe not suitable for him. Both his wins have came with Egan on board and with a wide draw today [normally a good thing at Bath], I hope there's going to be a 3rd win. 6.00 Bet365

[chris34]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday 12th October 6.45 Wolverhampton Several of these have been subject to some money in the early and overnight markets, hard to judge the strength of that with the overnight markets so weak and people anticipating gambles. Reposer hasn’t been seen for over 200 days and has plummeted in the weights after failing to beat a rival on several starts, he is now 13lb below last winning mark over this trip at Kempton but cannot be backed on what he has shown since, but you do have to respect any real money from this yard. Sir Bruno has also attracted some money, he ran a good race on penultimate start but didn’t really back that effort up last time out and now finds himself on a 3lb higher mark although useful apprentice does take off a handy 5lb cheekpieces back on instead of visor from last time but draw not great. Inpursuitoffreedom took advantage of a career low mark last time out a 6lb penalty makes him look potentially still well treated but isn’t the most straightforward individual and was given a clever ride by Hughes last time out, also this trip looks on the short side. The other last time out winner running under a penalty is Iceblast who was a convincing winner over 6f around here last time out he too was on a career low mark and still looks well treated but fear is the 7f trip he has failed to convince over at times always looked much better over a strongly run 6f. For me Admiratly offers a little bit of E/W value in a difficult race. He is a lightly raced 3yr old. He caught the eye 3 starts back over CD staying on well after getting a wide run throughout. Didn’t look to get home over a mile at Kempton and did rather well at Southwell last time out over a mile again racing strongly in front and again shaping as if he didn’t quite get home. The return to 7f should suit much more with apprentice taking off a chunky 7lb in this sort of race may help. 1pt e/w Admiratly 10/1 hills 7.45 Wolverhampton Singzak likes to get his own way in front and that looks unlikely here and with a wide draw to contend with aswell. Hard to know what to expect from Dartford he has been kept to pacemaker roles recently, and needs a bit more from this sort of mark judge on a couple of handicap efforts around here over shorter. Kames Park isn’t straightforward and despite being in good form he is just so hard to win with and hard to be confident about despite being on a reasonable mark. Porcini is looking for a 3 timer here tonight having won over 1m4f and then 2m1f last time out around here, drops back to 1m6f tonight and a 4lb rise in the weights makes things tougher and clearly going the right way. English Summer might be worth risking to get back on the winning trail having finished 2^nd last time out behind Peachez. He was given a lot to do that day and it looked very much a case of the best horse finished 2^nd. Won a shade cosily the time before and is now 3lb ahead of the handicapper and this step up in trip should suit. 2pt win English Summer 9/2 bet365 9.15 Wolverhampton One Way Or Another won 3 starts back and has run respectably since but a 11lb rise makes him look vunerable at present and best watched. My Mate Jake has shown good form on the polytrack with 6 runs with 3 wins and 2 placed efforts, has gone up 8lb since last win and didn’t have a lot to spare and throwed in a stinker last time out on turf and that is the worry despite being 2 from 3 around here. City Of The Kings is an interesting one at a huge price, has dropped a long way in the weights but has struggled in handicaps this year. Only raced twice on the polytrack with a win and a 5^th place in early days so is defenetily one to watch should the polytrack spark any sort of revival in form. One Scoop Or Two goes well over the extended mile around here but not quite as good over this extended 1m1f trip, he does remain on a good mark but stamina is defenetily stretched from a wide draw and not always the easiest to predict. Glass Mountain took a step back in the right direction last time out with the visor refitted, but that has to work again and wide draw to contend with and does just look handicapped upto his best at present. Tiradito is a worthy favourite having scored comfortably last time out over the slightly shorter trip, 6lb penalty and slightly further trip are the concern but is still dangerously well treated on best form if coping with the step up in trip. Switchback went in my notebook 7 days ago behind Tis Rock N Roll having travelled well throughout sitting prominently from a wide draw before quickening up nicely but the winner sneaked up the inside rail before he hung slightly over to the winner and rallied again suggesting he was idling infront out in the middle on his own. They both pulled nicely clear of the 3^rd horse that day and that form has worked out well with the winner going in again under a 6lb penalty and the 4^th horse finishing well in the same race as Tis Rock N Roll won. Switchback is 3lb ahead of the handicapper at present and apprentice takes off a further 7lb from a much better draw today might be hard to beat if in the same mood. 3pts win Switchback 13/2 hills

[scotty657]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday 12th October

Bath 2.05 April Ciel has a very good chance of notching up his 3rd career win here today. Running off the same mark than the last 3 outings' date= and the same 5lb claimer on board in Darren Egan, but today he has softer ground then those runs and that may well be what the doctor ordered. This horse has some very good form over soft ground bar a 7/8 although that was a much longer trip and maybe not suitable for him. Both his wins have came with Egan on board and with a wide draw today [normally a good thing at Bath], I hope there's going to be a 3rd win. 6.00 Bet365

piss

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday 12th October 4.15 York - 1pt win Multi Bene @ 12/1 (Ladbrokes) A few of these have to prove themselves at the trip and this horse is included in that but the way he's been finishing his races off over a mile suggests that he'll get home and even enjoy the extra couple of furlongs on offer here. His dam has some stamina influence so there's a positive on that front too. You can't fault him for form, either, as he's finished in the first two on his last four runs (twice 2nd when finishing strongly). He has proven he can handle some cut in the ground and I just have to hope the very testing ground today won't be an issue either. The way he's won his races means it could be tricky to get a grasp on him in the handicap and I'm hopeful the 5lb rise won't be enough to stop him as he progresses up in distance.

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday 12th October

3.05 York: Acorn Web Offset Handicap (Class 2) (1m) A wide-open handicap and the ground could be the key here; if it rains anymore this could be a real test of stamina. My two against the field are No Poppy and Lord Aeryn. I think the Fahey runner looks well in with some of these on previous form and it may just be his turn on ground that wont inconvenience him. No Poppy on the other hand is bang in form but will need to negotiate beaten horses as she makes her way through late on and should reach the frame. Selections: 1pt EW Lord Aeryn 12/1 >BetVictor 1pt EW No Poppy 10/1 >Paddy Power Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/york-betting-lord-aeryn-s-turn-to-land-big-handicap-for-fahey-and-hanagan-at-york

Nice winner BH!

[Lars]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Friday 12th October 21:15 Wolverhampton CITY OF THE KINGS takes a big drop in handicap grade today and although his recent form would suggest that he's lost the plot completely, he hasn't been seen to best effect on recent starts and is definitely capable of better at some stage soon. So, dropped into a 0-70 for the first time, back on the all-weather (a surface he handles) and also with the assistance of a fair 7lb claimer, he's overpriced at 50/1. He's showed little on recent outings but hasn't really been running at his best trip, that being over 1m2f. Most of his below par outings have been over 7f/a mile and he's dropped in the ratings quite significantly this season. He has though, generally been kept to competitive races and although this is a tough little handicap, it's a big difference than his previous races that he's contested. Even the claimers that he's ran in have been fair contests and although beaten miles last time, he was barely put into the race, saw plenty of daylight and just never picked up. He handled the polytrack earlier in his career, so it looks interesting that he's returned to it now eligible for this grade. Jacob Butterfield is fairly useful in the saddle and worth the 7lb claim and although admittedly a huge price and a bit of a punt, there's no way he deserves to be 50/1. 21:15 Wolverhampton - City Of The Kings; 2pts @ 50/1 Bet365, William Hill (bog)