NFL: Week 6 picks

[Samba_SamPa]

Titans (m/l) 1pt @ 3.35 Paddy Power Britt anytime TD 1pt @ 3.40 Paddy Power Paddy Power are standout for both these prices, with Titans best 3.20 elsewhere and Britt no bigger than 3.00. Britt's listed as probable for tonight, and I think it's a fair assumption that he will play after practicing fully yesterday. He's without the most talented of the Titans' WRs, and will probably draw the coverage of Ike Taylor, but he said he felt the most confident he has all year coming into this game on Tuesday, so his ankle will hopefully be of no concern to him whatsoever. If he IS fit, then 12/5 surely underestimates his chance, as the Titans' premier receiver, of snaffling a TD catch. In terms of the win, I think the Titans win this, at home, more than 3 times in 10, in fact I'd have this as just about a pick'em - maybe Steelers 5/6 Titans 6/5 - so the 47/20 is good value in my eyes. The Titans are 1-1 at home, beating Detroit and losing to New England, the latter of which would certainly be classed as having more damaging offensive weapons than those that Pitt can field. Steelers have lost both their road games so far, comfortably beaten in Denver, and also beaten in Oakland by a Raiders team that have looked poor to say the least.

[kevshat]

Re: NFL: Week 6 picks 4pts Tennessee vs Pittsburgh - Over 43pts 10/11 William Hill With Tennessee’s defence having given up 30 points or more in every match this season and with the Steelers defence bashed up I think the offenses can fire in this match even if Jake Locker is injured. Kenny Britt would be a good returnee and I think both sides can score points. With both sides capable of scoring points and both defences not at their strongest I think the 43pt line is a more than achievable one here. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/pittsburgh--tennessee-betting-weakened-defences-can-give-up-a-few-points-in-tennessee

[Rob the I ty]

Re: NFL: Week 6 picks Pittsburgh -5.5 Can't see anything but a Steelers win here. The Titans might be the worst team in the NFL. They're OLine is terribel which nullifies Chris Johnson and Hasselbeck is ok but simply can't make all the throws at this stage of his career. They do have some good WRs but the Steelers did quite well vs Jackson, Maclin and the Philly WRs. Offensively Big Ben might be playing the best football of his career under Haley new offensive system. The Titans have struggled vs the pass and have given up 36 ppg by far the league's worst. Mendenhall is also back and had good showing last week vs a strong Philly front 7. The Titans might be 1-1 at home but they got 3 return TDs vs Detroit and still almost lost, while the Steelers 2 road losses were unfortunate especially the Oakland game where they had complete control but they fumbled that game away.

[Rob the I ty]

Re: NFL: Week 6 picks Well done Samba some nice juice on both plays. The Steelers are looking more and more like an 8-8 type team, especially with the OLine injuries piling up.

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: NFL: Week 6 picks

Titans (m/l) 1pt @ 3.35 Paddy Power Britt anytime TD 1pt @ 3.40 Paddy Power

Trending the right way now after a rough start. Steelers' injury woes on both sides of the ball undoubtedly a help for me. 2012 record: 11-18 (+5.50)

[Backbencher]

Re: NFL: Week 6 picks Nice job on the Steelers-Titans game, Samba. New England @ Seattle, New England -4, @2.18 (pinny), 2/10 points Seattle is the best defence in the league and they're very hard to beat at Century Link field (even without replacement officials), but I was impressed by the Patriots offence last week. They are the best attack in the league and the lightning fast no-huddle offence is very difficult to defend. Though Seattle has a good defence, Russell Wilson has been struggling all season. He is 29th in yards and 30th in QB rating and the Seahawks are having trouble putting points on the board. In order to win they need a low scoring game but it will be difficult to do it against Brady and co. NY Giants @ San Francisco, NY Giants +6.5, @2.02, 2/10 points I find this line really huge. The 49ers come from 2 blowout wins, but against 2 quite poor teams. They are not a team built to win this way, but to run the ball and let Akers score FGs. In the NFC Championship game the line was -2.5 and I don't see such a big difference to move the line 4 points. The Giants are a good team with good QB, good WRs and good RBs. They've been having trouble with the DL, but they can keep a close game like they did in January, when they end up winning it in OT. NFL 2012: 6-1, +10.66

[blackcrow]

Re: NFL: Week 6 picks Taking an extra TD on the line;) Baltimore -9.5 @ 3.40 sportsbet Baltimore have struggled to score on the road but at home, they have been getting the yards, as they have gained 329, 382 and 356 passing yards (against Chicago, New ENgalnd and Cleveland) with 6 TDs and 2 INTs. Like them to do well against this Dallas secondary, that may have allowed just 151, 110 and 275 passing yards in their last three games to Seattle, Tampa Bay and Chicago, but none of these teams have a good home QB like Flacco is in Baltimore. Also they have allowed 4 TDs with just 1 INT in these games, so they are not creating the turnovers. In the running game, Baltimore has had 100+ yards in each of their five games, and like Rice to do well, as Seattle gashed them for 183 yards when they played in the north-west. On defence, Baltimore has allowed teams to throw on them but like them to do well here as Romo has thrown 8 INTs so far this season against 6 TDs, and this defence has allowed just 2 passing TDs while they have 6 INTs so far this season. Also, Dallas' running game has been poor, with just 49, 38 and 41 yards in their last three games, while Baltimore have allowed just 77 and 43 yards in their last two homes games against New England and Cleveland. Dallas may be refreshed off the bye, but until their offence shows some life, then expect Baltimore to control the clock, and wear out their defence, while putting points on the board Atlanta -16.5 @ 2.76 sportsbet Atlanta's QB Ryan has been very good this year, as he has thrown for an average of 310 passing yards and has 13 TDs and just 3 INTs. Like him to do well on this Oakland secondary that allowed two good passing teams like Pittsburgh and Denver to pass for 384 yards (4 TDs, 0 INTs) and 338 yards (3 TDs, 0 INTs) respectively. The run game has steadily improved as it averaged 95 yards per game, and can see them doing well here, as Oakland have allowed 263 rushing yards to Miami and 165 rushing yards to Denver in their two road games. On defence, Atlanta has allowed 258 passing yards or less in its five games (average of 218 yards per game) and it has done well to pick 9 INTs, while allowing just 5 passing TDs. Oakland have thrown for 209 yards and 202 yards in their last two games against Pittsburgh and Denver, and it does not get any easier against this pass defence.The bigger concern is the rush defence that has allowed 143 rushing yards per game, but then again, the Oakland rush offence has been pretty poor, with just 23 rushing yards against Miami and 56 rushing yards agaisnt Denver in those two away games. Like the Atlanta defence to step it up here, and cause plenty of problems for Oakland's offence. Miami -10.5 @ 2.82 sportsbet Miami have only once thrown for more than 223 yards in their five games as they prefer to run the ball. At home, they have been very good running the ball, as they gained 263 rushing yards against Oakland and 185 rushing yards against the NY Jets, so like them to do well on this St Louis rush defence, especially as they allowed 176 rushing yards to Washington and 179 yards to Seattle, with both teams prefering to run the ball, rather than throwing it. While this St Louis secondary is not bad, like Miami to set up the run as their main way of going down the field. On defence, Miami's secondary has been up and down, as they allow an average of 302 passing yards per game but they have managed 7 INTs to go with the 7 TDs, so they can make the picks. St Louis have only once passed for more than 223 yards (average of 205 yards per game) as they have 7 TDs to go with the 5 INTs they have thrown. Doubt that they will get much from their run game as they have ran for 78 yards against Detroit and 59 yards against Chicago, in their two road games, while Miami has allowed 88 yards or less in its 5 games at an average of 60 rushing yards per game. Believe that Miami will force St Louis to throw and not too keen on Bardford to make the plays especially as he is without WR Amendola for this game. Philadelphia -9.5 @ 3.40 sportsbet Philly's QB Vick has improved from his poor start to the season as he has 3 TDs and no INTs in his last three games. While he has passed for 217, 241 and 175 yards against Arizona, NY Giants and Pittsburgh, like him to do well here as this Detroit secondary has not had an INT in its four games. They have allowed 498 yards to St Louis, 226 yards to San Francisco, 378 yards to Tennessee and 111 yards to Minnesota, and neither of their QBs are as good as Vick is on his day. Also like them to do well in the run game, as they have averaged 133 rushing yards per game, while Detroit did allow 148 yards to San Fran and 127 yards to Minnesota, with these two sides having similar rush offence to what they will face against with Vick and McCoy. On defence, Philly has only once allowed more than 232 passing yards in its five games, and that was to the NY Giants, but managed to hold Baltimore, Cleveland, Arizona and Pittsburgh to that or less, while they have allowed 5 passing TDs but managed 6 INTs. Detroit will look to pass the ball but may have problems in finding their receivers here. Also Philly allowed 111 yards to San Fran and 57 yards to the Giants in its two home games, while Detroit have only once rushed for more than 83 yards in a game. Though they are off a bye, believe that Philly can do the job here as they limit their turnovers while using their running gam to very good effect. San Francisco -13.5 @ 3.02 sportsbet San Fran's QB Smith has been steady, and even though he averages just 205 passing yards per game, he has thrown for 8 TDs and just one INT, and against a NY secondary that has allowed 261 passing yards per game, with 8 TDs and 5 INTs, then like him to do well here. They will focuse on the run game as they have ran for at least 148 yards in 4 of their 5 games (average of 196 yards per game). The Giants rush defence did allow 148 rushing yards to Dallas and 181 rushing yards to Philly, and now face the best running game of them all, so like the 49ers to run all over them. On defence, SF are very good. They have allowed 230 passing yards or less in their last 4 games (avaerage of 181 passing yards over 5 games) while they have allowed 89 yards or less in 4 of their 5 games. While Manning is very good, he will be facing the best secondary so far this season, and doubt their running game gives him any respite, as even though they had 243 rushing yards against Cleveland last week, they averaged just 70 rushing yards per game before that. Should be a very loud and noisy home crowd, and like SF to win this as they look better on both sides of the ball Record: 13-22 (-6.47)

[kevshat]

Re: NFL: Week 6 picks 4pts Detroit (+3.5) to beat Philadelphia 20/21 Ladbrokes These two sides are both reasonably decent defensively so I don’t see either side running away with this and it could well be another tight Eagles match. I think the value lies with the Lions with the 3.5pt start. They have a very powerful offense and Calvin Johnson can be a game breaker anywhere. The Lions have had a week to reassess their strategy and focus the minds and I think they can stay within a field goal here. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/detroit--philadelphia-betting-detroit-can-come-off-the-bye-week-and-push-the-eagles-all-the-way

[kevshat]

Re: NFL: Week 6 picks 4pts San Francisco vs New York Giants - Over 45.5pts 10/11 Paddy Power The G men are giving up a lot of points at the minute but luckily for them they are scoring plenty too. With the run almost redundant for them in this match Eli will have to air the ball a lot but I think there’s some big plays on offense for the Giants in this match and I’d expect to continue putting up points. The 49ers offense is looking very well balanced and they too can put up a lot of points so I think the 45.5 total points line looks a little on the low side to me here. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/new-york-giants--san-francisco-betting-candlestick-park-can-see-plenty-of-points-in-repeat-of-nfc-championship-match

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: NFL: Week 6 picks Patriots (-9.5) 2pts @ 2.65 Bet365 NFL's most productive offense against NFL's most stingy defense in Seattle tonight, where I think the offensive weapons of Brady and his bunch can get the W quite comfortably. With the fast paced no-huddle offense that Brady runs, the noise of the crowd isn't to be as big a factor as it is to teams who huddle. With the deep threat of Lloyd, the inside threat of Welker, the mismatch threat of Gronk, the new running threat of Ridley and Bolden, it's going to be a tough task for the 'hawks to shut all aspects of the Patriots' offense down. Colts (m/l) 2pts @ 2.65 bwin I promise I'm not going overboard just because they managed to beat GB last week... this is more a fade of the circus that is the Jets. Having said that you still need the weapons to hurt a team when they're down, and in Luck and Wayne, and to a lesser extent Fleener and Hylton, they do have. Certainly I don't think they deserve to be so big a price to take the W. Giants (m/l) 1pt @ 3.64 Pinnacle Over 13/5 is too big for the Giants to spring a 'surprise' in SanFran. Their DL can put more pressure on Smith than he has had recently, whilst Eli has 2 rings, and a pair of elite WRs to look to. Yes they're not going to get a deal of joy on the ground, likely, but Bradshaw did have 126 dual purpose yards from scrimmage in the NFC game last season, 74 on the ground, so he will at least keep the 49ers defense honest and not allow to simply double up on Nicks and Cruz. Boley's leading all LBs for INTs this season, with 3, Tuck has 5 sacks in 4 careers games against them, Umeniyora 3.5 sacks, a FF and 2 FRs in 4 career meetings. So, as well as Eli having the offensive tools to put points on the board, the Giants also have the defensive tools to get to Smith and pressure him in to errors. Kuhn to score anytime TD - 1pt @ 5.50 Bet365 Price looks too big, as short as 11/4 with Skybet, for the Packers' designated goal-line back. I actually fancy the Pack to take the W in this and inflict Texans' first defeat of the season, but that is a top-priced 7/4 and I think there's a whole lot more value in Kuuuuuuuuuuuuhn to run himself a short yardage TD at some point during the game

[AGurv]

Re: NFL: Week 6 picks NFL 2012-2013 Overall 12W-14L-1P -3.30 units (46.15%) Had a small winning week last week..trying to get to at least 50% this week Lions +3.5 to win 1 unit @ 5dimes Packers +3.5 to win 1 unit @ 5dimes Pats -3.5 to win 1 unit @ 5dimes Bronco's pick to win 1 unit @ 5dimes Perhaps i'm a sucker on all 4 of these, I feel like I am.

[Rob the I ty]

Re: NFL: Week 6 picks Philly -3 @1.83 with bet365 The Eagles return home where they are 2-0 beating quality opposition in the Ravens and Giants. While things haven't gone smoothly for the Eagles this season they are still 3-2. The Lions have really struggled and they seem like a team that just tries to get by on talent. Unfortunately they lack talent on the OLine which is never a good sign vs the Eagles defensive front. Asomugah can hold his own vs Calvin Johnson and Stafford seems erratic this season especially under pressure. The Eagle offense have had their struggles as well but the Lions have struggled to slow down anyone. While the Lions are average statistically they've given up points early and thus had to play catchup. The Eagles haven't had the benefit of a nice lead this season to really turn their defense loose, I think they'll get that chance today.

[Rob the I ty]

Re: NFL: Week 6 picks New England -3 @1.80 with bet365 Yes Seattle is difficult place to win, but this is simply a matchup of QBs and I have to side with Brady over Wilson. The Pats have had some trouble in pass protection but they've countered that by running the ball more. They're really beginning to click offensively and you have to gigure they can get to 24 points in Seattle. Can Seattle match that? Wilson is struggling he simply doesn't progress through his reads quicly enough and that will always be a problem vs a Bill Belicheck defense. Belicheck will no doubt scheme to take advantage of his young tendencies to put his okayers in position to create turn overs. Seattle isn't adept at playing catch up and while they've played good defense teams have been able to move the ball when they customize their protections like Green Bay did in the 2nd half against them.

[kevshat]

Re: NFL: Week 6 picks 4pts Houston (-3.5) to beat Green Bay 20/21 Betfred I like Houston this season and I think they’ll preserve their unbeaten record in this match. They can get it done on the ground and when you consider the Packers defence allowed Reggie Wayne to catch for over 200 yards last week they could get burnt alive by Andre Johnson if the Texans need to go down that route. The Packers offense isn’t firing at full strength and against this Texans defence they have the potential to struggle so it all points to Houston winning this and I personally think they’ll cover a -3.5 handicap. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/green-bay--houston-betting-texans-can-go-6-0-with-win-over-green-bay-in-the-sunday-night-game

[Backbencher]

Re: NFL: Week 6 picks

New England @ Seattle, New England -4, @2.18 (pinny), 2/10 points :@ NY Giants @ San Francisco, NY Giants +6.5, @2.02, 2/10 points :D

NFL 2012: 7-2, +10.72

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: NFL: Week 6 picks

Patriots (-9.5) 2pts @ 2.65 Bet365 Colts (m/l) 2pts @ 2.65 bwin Giants (m/l) 1pt @ 3.64 Pinnacle Kuhn to score anytime TD - 1pt @ 5.50 Bet365

Colts were well beaten, and the Pack didn't need Kuhn to run any in when they have their mvp slinging TD passes for fun. The Giants won easy, and the Patriots had the game won, had the line covered and plenty opportunities to put the game completely to bed but having to settle for FGs from '& goal' opportunites and throwing picks in the end zone..... that all allowed the 4th Q comeback with what has been a toothless Seattle offense slicing the ridiculously bad Pats secondary to shreds. 2012 record: 12-21 (+3.14)

[blackcrow]

Re: NFL: Week 6 picks

Baltimore -9.5 @ 3.40 :( Halftime they lead 17-10, and then 24-13 in the third quarter, and from there the Ravens defence could not stop the run (now two weeks in a row they have let in 200+ rushing yards - they face Houston next week :loon) while Romo started slinging the ball all over the place. Atlanta -16.5 @ 2.76 :( Ryan throws 3 INTs in the first half and from then on. they are always struggling to cover this spread Miami -10.5 @ 2.82 :( They lead 17-6 until midway in the 4th quarter as they allow St Louis to make the play on 4th and 2 which leads to a TD. Philadelphia -9.5 @ 3.40 :( Lead 16-6 early in the 4th quarter and then 23-13 midway in the 4th quarter, and then the defence can't hold them out San Francisco -13.5 @ 3.02 Smith throws 3 INTs when he has had just one in his first five games.

What a week for form reversals. QBs throwing INTS instead of TDs, while defences giving up huge yardage when they have done well up to now. Dogs were barking very loud. Not one pick covered their line at close, with the dogs winning ATS or even SU. Looking at San Diego to save some of this week. Going with a very inflated line San Diego -12.5 @ 5.00 centrebet Rivers have been steady this year, throwing for 8 TDs but also 5 INTs so he will be looking to improve from last weeks showing where he threw for 354 yards with 2 TDs and an INT against New Orelans. Like him to do well on this secondary that has given up 9 passing TDs with just 2 INTs. Rivers has gone 9-3 against Denver and thrown 20 TDs on them, and they are one team that he generally plays well against. The run game has had 100+ yards in their last four games and they face a Denver defence that has allowed 251 yards at home to New England last week. On defence, SD do not give away much on the ground as they have allowed 75 yards per game while Denver have averaged 101 rushing yards per game. Manning has doen well for Denver throwing for 11 TDs and 3 INTs but his only bad game was in their only road game they have had so far, as he threw for 241 yards and 1 TD, but also 3 INTs in the loss at Atlanta. He has struggled against SD in the past, throwing for 11 TDs but also 15 INTs. This being a division game on monday night, like the home side to get up here, and win well Record: 13-27 (-11.47)

[kevshat]

Re: NFL: Week 6 picks 4pts Denver to beat San Diego Evs Ladbrokes I don’t particularly rate either of these two sides but I do believe Manning has the weapons to get the job done here. San Diego were awful in defence last week and Brees picked them apart and I expect Manning to do similar here. It’s hard to pass on this Denver defence so Rivers could have a tough night which could mean it is worth siding with the Broncos in this one. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/denver--san-diego-betting-peyton-manning-can-lead-the-broncos-to-a-vital-afc-west-win

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: NFL: Week 6 picks Dante Rosario - anytime TD scorer - 1pt @ 8.00 Ladbrokes I think that Peyton and the Broncos can win this tonight, but not confident enough to pull the trigger on them at the price. There is one price I've found that is standout value imo however, and that is for San Diego's ex-Bronco TE Dante Rosario score a Touchdown at any point during the game. Whilst he has only got 6 receptions on the season, and 4 of those in one game, 3 of those receptions were in the endzone. With Antonio Gates increasingly unable to create any separation from his own coverage, Rosario figures to be the beneficiary in any 2 TE redzone sets that the Chargers run. Obviously, with receptions of 1, 0 and 1 over the last 3 games, it's not exactly a 'likely' scenario he finds himself on the scoresheet, but it's certainly more likely than the 7/1 odds would suggest imo. Indeed, the very top price elsewhere for him is 4/1, and he is as short as 21/10 at Paddy.

[blackcrow]

Re: NFL: Week 6 picks

San Diego -12.5 @ 5.00 :wall

Unbelieveable finish to the week. Still trying to pick my jaw off the ground. Leading 24-0 and the game looking in the bag, and then Rivers commits turnover after turnover and they lose 35-24. That is why he will never considered in the top 5 QBs and if San Diego are serious about going forward, then they should be looking at a new QB in the next draft. He has had his chances and has failed to deliver. Record: 13-28 (-12.47)

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: NFL: Week 6 picks

Dante Rosario - anytime TD scorer - 1pt @ 8.00 Ladbrokes I think that Peyton and the Broncos can win this tonight, but not confident enough to pull the trigger on them at the price. There is one price I've found that is standout value imo however, and that is for San Diego's ex-Bronco TE Dante Rosario score a Touchdown at any point during the game. Whilst he has only got 6 receptions on the season, and 4 of those in one game, 3 of those receptions were in the endzone. With Antonio Gates increasingly unable to create any separation from his own coverage, Rosario figures to be the beneficiary in any 2 TE redzone sets that the Chargers run. Obviously, with receptions of 1, 0 and 1 over the last 3 games, it's not exactly a 'likely' scenario he finds himself on the scoresheet, but it's certainly more likely than the 7/1 odds would suggest imo. Indeed, the very top price elsewhere for him is 4/1, and he is as short as 21/10 at Paddy.

If ever anything was guaranteed to ensure Gates had a big game... lol Frustrating in many different ways - I fancied Denver, but couldn't pull the trigger; my initial idea of an anytime TD score was Brandon Stokley - I even had half my reasoning typed out... then noticed that Ladbrokes price that was way out of line on Rosario and changed my mind. Unlucky bc, that must have been a hard one to take. Not sure next year's draft class is much special at QB mind. Well done with Denver, Kev