Alfred Dunhill Links (4th-7th Oct)

[RussP]

Back to reality & the 3 course Alfred Dunhill Links starting on Thursday. First 3 days playing with the celebs where pin positions will be easily than normal, with the last day at St Andrews with tougher pins and no celebs. Looking forward to it, especially with some of the Ryder Cup boys on show (albeit Westwood has pulled out).

[RussP]

Re: Alfred Dunhill Links (4th-7th Oct) 5 bets for me this week, where I may be taking slightly shorter odds to get an extra place. Most pay first 5 but Ladbrokes, Stan James & SportingBet go first 6. Normally, I'm a 3 or 4 players per tournament chap but this week I've gone with a full 5, yet still not exceeding the 15pt stake. At the prices, I'll get my money back (not quite with Donaldson) should just 1 of 5 place. Onto the event itself and it's quite different than the normal stuff. It's not an event where statistics play the biggest part (ie, best driver, longest, etc) but is more one where a player must be suited to the format of a 3 day, 3 course pro-am before a final day for pro's only. Therefore, this leads me to looking at previous event form, I'd almost go as far as to state that you can write off anyone without a top 20 in the last 2 years. In addition, you want someone who has been teeing it up well during the year so multiple piece of forms, including some recent form, is a must. The final thing I look for is a player who's likely to be suited by links tracks. With Oosthuizen, Harrington, Lawrie and DJ in the field, we're getting some good value too on quality players. My 5 against the field are: T.Bjorn to win Alfred Dunhill Links, 1.5pts EW @ 50/1 Ladbrokes (1/4 odds 1-6) The likeable Dane has every chance this week. First up, his links form isn't for debate as we all know about his pair of Top 5 finishes in the Open at Royal St Georges. Add to that, his win at Gleneagles last year backed up by his 10th in the same event 2 starts ago. His form this season has been good yet he's still miles away from his 2011 form of 3 wins including back to back victories. Other than his finish at Gleneagles, he has 5 other top 10's from just 18 starts (top 10 every 1 in 3, a great ratio). Certainly capable of going well here, finishing 11th 2 years ago. Still inside the World's top 50 so 50/1 looks big, especially if the wind gets up come Thursday. M.Warren to win Alfred Dunhill Links, 1.5pts EW @ 60/1 Stan James (1/4 odds 1-6) A player I have a lot of time for, this is the event he's been looking forward to and with good reason. He clearly likes the format, with 3 Top 5's in the last 4 years including a 5th 12 months ago. Form doesn't come much stronger in this and it's generally recognised that the same players rise to the top here year on year. As well as in this, he has shown recent form in a multi track event, finishing 3rd on his first start in 2012 at the Joburg Open. That could prove crucial too. His other top 3 came here in his native Scotland, at the Scottish Open where he was leading down the back 9. His form is holding up well too, with a pair of top 15 finishes in his last 2 events. Fully refreshed after the enforced break, I expect him to be in tip top shape when he finally tees it up. R.Fisher to win Alfred Dunhill Links, 1.5pts EW @ 66/1 Ladbrokes (1/4 odds 1-6) British, loves links golf and has course form. The perfect profile for this, I feel Ross Fisher could go well at a price. Hasn't done as much as many would have expected over the last couple of seasons but he's still a very capable golfer and could easily get back inside the world's top 100 with a good result here. He does have 5 top 10's in just 18 starts this term so he's clearly striking it ok and that included a 10th place finish at the Irish Open, played on a links course. Other notable bits of links form include a win at the KLM in 2007 and a top 15 at Turnberry in the 2009 Open, where he has been leading going into the final day. His form here is none too shabby also, finishing 11th in 2010 and edged out in a play off to Karlsson 2 years earlier. In the hope this venue sparks a return to winning ways, I'll take a chance on the Englishman. J.Donaldson to win Alfred Dunhill Links, 1.5pts EW @ 33/1 Ladbrokes (1/4 odds 1-6) Finally got that monkey of his back with a win at the Irish Open and that is huge for Donaldson. He can now kick on and record another win, especially as he has both form on links tracks and here at this pro-am. Since that win, he's had a top 10 on the European Tour as well as a 7th on the US PGA, the best ever Major finish. That win in Ireland has given him huge confidence. 9th here last year, as well as a furthe top 10 in 2008, he's shown a liking for this format. Likes Scotland on the whole too, with a top 10 at the Scottish Open the last time there and a pair of top 10's at Gleneagles in the last 3 years. Just outside the world's top 50, he'll be hoping for a good result here ahead of a strong finish to his best ever year. D.Lynn to win Alfred Dunhill Links, 1.5pts EW @ 80/1 Ladbrokes (1/4 odds 1-6) On the back of a 2nd at the US PGA, a finish that proved he can mix it with the big boys, David Lynn now sits as the world number 39. This is obviously his best ever season and he will be hoping to prove himself at this big event. There's no doubt he has room for improvement in this event and, therefore, it could be seen as a risk but 80/1 is worth it. The last 2 years have seen top 30 finishes here so it wouldn't be so unexpected for him to go well here. Whilst I've talked down the power of stats, it's been evident recently that Lynn has a hot putter and with pin positions expect to be relatively easy through to Saturday, I can see him getting on a roll and holing some birdies. If he can do that, the odds available on him may look a little generous.