Flat Racing Saturday 29th of September

[Aidymac]

*Start Right - Newmarket 3:40* Huge field of 35 runners, so each way is a must. The Bin Suroor stable is certainly a stable worth keeping on the right side of at the moment. De Sousa gets the mount here on this horse for them, and even though was 7th last time out, was travelling very well when meeting trouble, and with a clear run may be overpriced for this race. Has been dropped to a mark of 99, last time it was off this mark it went close at Sandown, and with SDS on board, he should keep out of trouble. *0.5 Points e/w @ 25/1 Bet365 BOG*

[BillyHills]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 29th of September 3.40 Newmarket: Betfred Cambridgeshire (Heritage Handicap) (1m1f) With 35 runners there is obviously many in with chances and its worth looking out for enhanced places being offered by the bookmakers, Skybet are paying on 6 places which must be worth something and most of the others will pay on the fifth, Hills and Laddies are not offering any bonus so obviously avoid them if you can. Small stakes for me in a race like this and I cant see why last years winner Prince Of Johanne is such a big price, for an alternative I do like the bottom one Bronze Angel with Buick taking over the reigns. Both selections are drawn middle to high so lets hope we are in the right group. Selections; 1pt EW Prince Of Johanne 33/1 Totesport (first 5) 1pt EW Bronze Angel 11/1 >Bet365 (first 5) Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/newmarket-betting-prince-of-johanne-looks-a-big-price-to-follow-up-in-cambridgeshire

[Stevet1859]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 29th of September 3:40 Newmarket: Double Dealer 2pt win 1pt place 33/1 Bet365 (1/4 12345) & Arabian Star 1pt e/w 40/1 Betfred (1/4 12345) Its probably a risky tactic to put your faith in a horse on the basis of one run however at 33/1 it looks worth taking a chance on Double Dealer. He has been running on the all weather at Kempton and Lingfield all of this turf season, however his last run on turf here at Newmarket catches the eye. Double Dealer was an unlucky in running third behind Farhh who has gone on to contest all the top Group races this year. Double Dealer travelled well through that race and when he did get out of a pocket ran on well indicating this extra furlong might suit. He was never going to catch Farhh and it would be unreasonable to expect Double Dealer to have improved as much as Farhh, yet with only seven turf runs there is hope he could find a little more. That would give Double Dealer a decent chance in a typically wide open race. Arabian Star has been disappointing the last couple of times, however he goes really well here and he could be a classic case of horses for courses. Arabian Star won the silver Cambridgeshire last year and with Daniel Muscutt's seven pound claim Arabian Star looks fairly handicapped and being lightly raced may be open to some improvement.

[beaker1]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 29th of September Betfred Cambridgeshire – Newmarket The seven-year-old Rambo’s Hall (‘92) and the eight-year-old Baronet (’80) are the only two older horses to win the Betfred Cambridgeshire since 1977 so it should be fairly safe to discount the chances of Stevie Thunder and the 2010 winner Credit Swap. In that same period there hadn’t been a single five-year-old winner until Credit Swap broke their long losing run in 2010 and woe and behold Prince Of Johanne followed suit last year. Therefore, five-year-olds can no longer be viewed in a negative light. In the last decade, three and four-year-olds have won six renewals and the strength of that trend is backed up when looking at the bigger picture over the last 35 years. Three-year-olds have won 11 times and four-year-olds 14 times or in other words 25 of the last 35 – a pretty strong return in anyone’s book. Six-year-olds may have only won the race six times since 1977 but four of those have come in the last 13 years. Their record looks even stronger considering that on average they are responsible for half as many runners as three-year-olds and a third as many as four-year-olds. The 2010 winner, Credit Swap along with I Cried For You and Chivalry all won the Betfred Cambridgeshire off an official rating in the high 80s and last year’s winner Prince Of Johanne did so off 91. But overall, seven of the last ten renewals have been won by horses officially rated between 95 and 102 suggesting that they could well be the group to focus on tomorrow. For the record, of the more fancied runners, Mukhadram, Chill The Kite, Bronze Angel and King’s Warrior all fall into this category. Newbury’s Dubai Duty Free Handicap, a 0-105 handicap run over 1m2f, has provided four recent Cambridgeshire winners. Blue Monday and Formal Decree had both recorded a top three finish in that particular race whilst Spanish Don and Tazeez had both finished mid-division. However, in recent seasons only 7 days separates the two fixtures and therefore it remains to be seen if it will continue have the same impact. Licence To Till is the only representative from that race tomorrow. Quite remarkably, 28 of the last 31 Cambridgeshire winners had achieved a top-four finish on their most recent start – Spanish Don, Tazeez and Supaseus being the three to miss out. Interestingly, both Spanish Don and Tazeez had been unplaced in the aforementioned race at Newbury, whilst Supaseus had hardly finished out with the washing when coming home fifth in a competitive handicap at Sandown. Good news for all of the market leaders. During the last decade, only Spanish Don and Prince Of Johanne have managed to win from a high draw. The overall trend suggests that those drawn in the nine highest numbered stalls are to be opposed – namely Rewarded, Talk About, Postscript, Making Eyes, Loving Spirit, Credit Swap, Mijhaar, Fury, Double Dealer and Spa’s Dancer. Two winning favourites over the past ten years isn’t that bad a return given that the Betfred Cambridgeshire is a fiercely competitive race. Four other winners had been no worse than 6th in the betting implying that the market leaders tend to run to form although this isn’t backed up by an average winning starting price of just under 24-1. However, if you were to discount the recent 100-1, 40-1 and 25-1 winners it has a much more respectable look to it. So overall, the best advice is to favour those towards the forefront of the betting but don’t be put off backing an outsider if one were to take your fancy. John Gosden has a strong record in the Cambridgeshire as from a relatively small number of runners he has won it twice in the last decade and three times overall but sadly he is without a runner this afternoon. In fact, none of the trainers with a particularly strong record in the race have runners this year. Shortlist Bronze Angel Chil The Kite King’s Warrior (Burano) Conclusion BRONZE ANGEL has a profile that seems to fit in well with the roll of honour of past Cambridgeshire winners. After improving from run-to-run as a juvenile he hasn’t done a lot wrong this season with a solid effort on his reappearance at Musselburgh before winning a competitive Doncaster handicap. But perhaps his best effort came in the Britannia when he finished a strong 3rd having been drawn on the wrong side. He hasn’t raced since then, with Marcus Tregoning no doubt keen to protect his handicap mark, so he should arrive here fresh and with a few pounds still up his sleeve. Once again he hasn’t been done any favours by the draw but stall 21 isn’t the end of the world and I find it encouraging that William Buick has been booked for the ride for quite some time. Hughie Morrison’s Chil The Kite has a similar lightly-raced profile. After wins at Doncaster and Ascot, this Notnowcato colt ran well to finish less than 3L behind the well-regarded Thistle Bird, who runs this afternoon in the Rosemary Stakes. If she dominates there I can see Morrison’s colt coming in for plenty of support on Saturday. King’s Warrior might be a 5yo but he doesn’t have many miles on the clock and judged on his comfortable victory at York in July he may still have further improvement in him although he will need to as the handicapper walloped him with a 10lb rise for his rout on the Knavesmire. But like the main selection, Peter Chapple-Hyam put him away after that, so perhaps he believes that a mark of 101 was worth protecting? For those who fancy a punt at a big price Burano might just fit the bill. Currently around 33-1 this Dalakhani colt showed some reasonable form as a juvenile and out in Dubai over the winter when he beat Entifaadha in a listed race before having his limitations exposed in the Gr2 UAE Derby behind Daddy Long Legs. He made his belated reappearance at Newbury last weekend when he ran just the sort of race that you would expect for one being aimed at the Cambridgeshire a week later. Fallon wasn’t overly hard on the horse, no doubt with one eye on tomorrow’s race, but it will have blown away the cobwebs and he could be one that has slipped under the radar.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 29th of September Cambridgeshire MORAN GRA W 190 P 27 ON BF~Irish horse often go off at silly prices in these big handicaps. This horse is pretty decent when at its best worth a small dabble at massive betfair price. SPANISH DUKE E/W 50/1BET VICTOR 1-5~On a good mark a real threat to all if and its a big if its a going day for this moody animal who ran no sort of race lto. STEVIE THUNDER E/W 40/1 BET 365 1-5~Likes this race will be there abouts again off a good mark although age in this is a bit of a concern too big a price to miss but. TALK ABOUT WIN BET 25/1BET 365~French horse who could be anything quitely supported early on small win bet for me.

[Lars]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 29th of September An unsurprising selection in START RIGHT (15:40) for the Cambridgeshire for those who have followed my reasoning in the past few months. Below is an extract from what I said pre and post-race last time out. “I’ve still the belief that Start Right can pick up one of these races at this trip and given he has past form at Sandown, when runner-up at a mile off a mark of 99 in July 2011, this course shouldn’t hold any fears. A competitive heat in which many have chances but I’m sticking with my opinion that this sort of handicap is for the taking, especially given today he’s more kindly drawn. If they go a good clip, which is probable, then he has big claims and is value at this double-figure price. Start Right never got a run at all and wasn’t given a particularly clever ride (again). The gaps didn’t appear and the race wasn’t really run to suit, so he didn’t stand much of a chance from a winning point of view. I’m starting to lose patience with him given he needs plenty to go right for him, but I may renew acquaintances if guaranteed a strongly run over 1m1f or so. The Cambridgeshire would be where I’d take him but Godolphin have so many potential candidates for that race that it’s not likely we’ll see him there, but he is entered so we will see”. Without wanting to follow the horse, “off a cliff” as the saying goes; todays conditions will be absolutely ideal. Although the ground could just be a little bit quicker, the fact is that this 1m1f trip really should be perfect, especially given that it’ll be in a race that is run at a decent clip. I was always a bit conscious of the final furlong when running over 10f so today’s distance alleviates that issue and although it’s obviously possible that he’ll hit traffic-problems given his running style and his tendency to find trouble, he can’t be much unluckier than he was last time out and I’m still of the persuasion that one of these big handicaps can go his way. The 1lb drop in the ratings is no bad thing either and at the prices, I’m willing to give him another go, given that I’d earmarked this race for him about four weeks ago and his connections obviously have plenty of options with who to run, and Start Right is only one of two Godolphin runners. If he puts it altogether then he’ll win and given this is definitely a possibility, with a race run to suit, over a trip he should enjoy and on suitable ground, he’s worthy of support at prices of 20/1+. -- JOHNNY CASTLE (16:50) sprung back to life last time out at Doncaster and although four lengths off Cape Classic that day, he’s 8lbs better off this time around and shaped as if he’d get better as the season went on. Given he looked like he could win a really nice handicap when trained by John Gosden last season, and looks to be approaching that sort of form with current connections he looks an interesting contender. He took his time to find his feet for this yard, but showed sparks of life on his penultimate start at Goodwood before catching the eye last time out. It wasn’t a typical eye-catcher that I look for in a sense of a horse whom has been ridden incorrectly/not trying but Johnny Castle looked to be coming back to something like his best and wouldn’t have really appreciated having to do most of the donkey work in the closing stages on his own, away from other runners. The way he finished too suggested that this more demanding finish would be beneficial and although he’s 8lbs higher than his last winning mark, his last effort for John Gosden (off this handicap rating) seriously suggested that he could definitely be a top-class handicapper on his day, as that race worked out particularly well. He’ll have to improve again if he’s to overturn the form with Cape Classic alongside beating some hardened handicappers but I’m more than willing to give this one a chance today. He’s looked better than a rating of 92 on a couple of occasions now, will probably need to win this to get into the Challenge Cup at Ascot (a comment that could be applied to a few of these) and William Buick retaining the association once again is an obvious positive. Newmarket should be slightly more suitable than Doncaster in relation to the testing finish and even though Amanda Perrett has been struggling for winners as of late, her horses seem to have been running well generally. The selection is still fairly unexposed and doesn’t deserve to be a double figure price. -- NEUTRAFA (17:35) has some form on better ground but she’s very obviously a mud lover and hasn’t had her conditions for a while, alongside running in some fairly decent contests. There’s only one horse rated above 92 in this field and given she returns to a more modest level, with conditions to suit and she’s still on a handicap rating that is exploitable, she’s hugely overpriced. After winning on heavy ground at Ayr at the end of last season, she scored in hugely impressive fashion off a mark of 81 on softer ground at Nottingham over this mile trip. She’d been in my notebook for ages and knew she was a winner in waiting off that mark, but I generally didn’t think the ground would be soft enough. I couldn’t be proven more wrong and it at least showed she’s fully effective with some cut, alongside fully blown soft ground conditions. For such an easy win she went up 12lbs and ran respectably in Listed Company on testing ground, just not looking quite up to that level at that stage of her career. Her three subsequent starts have been on better ground and she never looks on happy on quick turf, especially running in listed handicaps and Group 3 contests. To her credit, her penultimate start at this track, again in a listed grade, was good enough to suggest she can be winning races off a mark in the 90’s switched to more suitable conditions. She travelled well for the most part and only really faded in the closing stages, understandable considering she’d had almost three months off and was performing on quicker than ideal ground. After a poor effort in a Group 3 last time, she’s been dropped 2lbs in the weights and I think she is more than capable of scoring off a rating of 91, especially helped today considering they’re claiming 5lbs off her, from a fairly useful jockey. Effectively a mark of 86 really should be workable considering she dotted up off an 8lb lower rating (factoring in jockey claims) and looked value for much more when she was getting her conditions. There’s plenty of other soft ground horses in this field but Neutrafa really seems to be priced on the basis of her last start, finally gets a race more suitable and although from a small yard which more than likely has been (incorrectly) factored into her price, I think she can run to a three figure mark on this ground and should be priced closer to 5/1, thus making her the bet. Bets 15:40 Newmarket – Start Right; 2pts @ 25/1 Bet365, William Hill 16:50 Newmarket – Johnny Castle; 2pts @ 12/1 Bet365, William Hill 17:35 Haydock – Neutrafa; 2pts @ 10/1 Paddy Power Take Best Odds Guaranteed where available

[robertob]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 29th of September 14.35 Haydock: Hopes N Dreams @ 11/2 Betfred Hopes N Dreams improved all the way through this year. She developed unfortunately though a habit of starting badly her races more often than not. That was also the case here at Haydock lto. She started slowly and had also to overcome a wide draw. She made it over from her draw to the stands rail eventually and travelled then like a dream. She was short of room in the closing stages, but when she finally found a gap she finished like a train. Too late, though. This performance however suggests that she is in excellent form and very well handicapped either. She's been raised by only 1lb for this effort and I expect her to go very close today again. The wide draw is probably not ideal, but the slow ground even more I guess. She has form on very softish going and I think it will help that the leading horses might tire earlier then they did lto so that she can win this race with a late burst of speed. 15.40 Haydock: Oojooba @ 9/2 Paddy Power Oojooba ran a massive race at Salisbury recently as a 82 rated filly in a good Listed race. She raced in rear of the field which wasn't an advantage as the eventual winner Operal Gal could dictate the pace from the front as she liked and surly didn't set a frenetic gallop. When the pace quickened Oojooba wasn't in the best position but made headway from the rear of the field in impressive style on the inside. She finished 2nd eventually, only 2¼ lengths beaten. A massive effort which suggests she is very much capable of racing against opposition as good as you find in Listed races. This form is a really strong form as well as Opera Gal won another Listed race after that and the 3rd places Rumh won a good class 2 Handicap. Oojooba's mark was raised by 8lb for this effort but that looks just fair and may still underestimate her class. She also drops down significantly in class here today, running in a class 3 handicap. The heavy ground shouldn't cause any problems to her and I think she should be just too good for this opposition here today. 16.40 Chester: Deia Sunrise @ 13/2 Betfred Deia Sunrise was a really unlucky loser here at Chester two weeks ago. The difference between loosing and winning was that Deia Sunrise had to overcome the widest draw and was as a result a clear run denied while the eventual winner was able to hug the rail and safe the decisive yards to win the race in a photo in the end. Deia Sunrise has a much better draw today and won't mind the 3lb raise in the mark for this massive recent effort. He is certainly in excellent form and improved through the year by 14lb. This here today represents a step up in class but I think he's not a finished article yet and can go very close again with a clear run.

[chris34]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 29th of September 7.50 Wolverhampton Reasonable handicap with plenty of pace in the race. Silken Express has been very keen in her races so far and that has to be a worry in a competitive race. Up 2lb since finishing 2^nd at Windsor last time out on handicap debut and will need to keep improving to take this. Angelito has won his last 2 starts but that form doesn’t mount to very much in context of this race with the maiden he won very weak and similar story for the handicap he won last time out but atleast in good heart but 6lb rise looks harsh. Bubbly Ballerina has returned to form and should enjoy a race run to suit here tracking a good pace but wide draw off putting having gone up 2lb for latest 2^nd. Queen Grace has a very patchy record to date in and out of form it would appear, lesser effort last time out down a 1lb for that but still 7lb higher than last win so needs to prove he is capable of improving past this mark. Secret Millionaire will get the race run to suit and is well drawn here in stall 2. He has only had 3 runs this year in Ireland never getting competitive given a very strange ride last time out. Has joined a yard that can get them turned around. Has slipped back to his last winning mark with a useful claimer taking a very handy 5lb off and does have form on the polytrack having won at Lingfield and he just looks a big price in a race like this. 1pt e/w Secret Millionaire 11/1 pp 9.20 Wolverhampton Several of these will be seen regularly over the winter but have plenty to prove at present. There is also not a huge amount of pace on most of these need a strongly run race and one of the obvious front runners is out (Fastnet Storm). Satwa Laird looks plenty high enough in the weights and this trip will stretch him. Knowe Head is not the most straightforward to win with has to be produced late and looked unlucky more than once last winter. Overall though recent efforts suggest this mark might just be high enough at present. Saharia has atleast been in good form but is unlikely to get the race run to suit. Kakapuka can be prominent racer but has failed to land a blow on latest starts and despite slipping mark something to prove. Kingswinford doesn’t shape as needing this trip and is probably better back at 7f and also mark sums him up at present. One Scoop Or Two is all or nothing at present woeful effort last time out when trying to make all, that followed a much better effort when ridden off the pace so impossible to know what to expect despite being on a reasonable mark. Xinbama effort last time out can be marked up given he got no luck in the running last time out but is another that needs a truly run race and not sure this trip will suit given previous wins have come over 6f and 7f. Honey Of Kitten is certainly exposed now but did manage a win over slightly further last winter that was under todays jockey off a mark of 64, runs off 69 today so on face of it doesn’t have a lot to spare but has form from Ireland which still makes him look very well treated. Has gone well fresh in the past and yard continue in good form. This race may just fall apart nicely for him here given the serious lack of pace and how he likes to sit prominently. 1pt e/w Honey Of A Kitten 14/1 pp

[mowgli77]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 29th of September Newmarket 1.55pm I liked the way Fantastic Moon won last time out, think 1m will be fine and expect a big race from it today. The O'Brien horse has just been taken out but I didn't fancy it anyway. Al Waab looks best of the rest. Full preview below: http://www.punterslounge.com/newmarket-betting-fantastic-moon-can-shine-brightly-under-johnny-murtagh-in-royal-lodge-stakes Selections: 2pts WIN – Fantastic Moon 3-1 William Hill (BOG) 1pt WIN – Al Waab 6-1 William Hill (BOG) Prices now available are 5-2 and 11-2 after the withdrawal of the O'Brien horse

[mowgli77]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 29th of September Newmarket 3.00pm Hard to see past the 2 top rated horses here with Chachamaidee giving weight to them and looking vulnerable today over a mile. Beauty Parlour would probably appreciate some more cut in the ground and Elusive Kate's form looks stronger overall. Full preview below: http://www.punterslounge.com/newmarket-betting-elusive-kate-fancied-to-deny-beauty-parlour-another-win-in-sun-chariot- Selections: 2pts WIN – Elusive Kate 5-2 Bet365 (BOG)

[smith17]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 29th of September 13.55 Newmarket: Al Waab, 9/2 Bet365, win Al Waab has won two of his three starts impressively. Lto he finished second, beaten by a head by Havana Gold but he was closing with every stride. HG won a group three comfortably nto. Before that Al Waab won a class two conditions race by 2l. The runner up won nto. The ground should suit as he has won on soft and good to firm. Henry Cecil is in cracking form this month, with 10 winners from just 36 runners. He also has a good record at Newmarket, with a 20% strike rate and a small profit. Tom Queally is in the saddle. 14.25 Newmarket: Rosdhu Queen, 5/1 BetVictor, win Rosdhu Queen has won all three of her starts. Lto she won a fillie's group two when she made all. She beat the re-opposing Baileys Jubilee by 1¾l and I see no reason why she won't confirm that form. The ground should be ok and she won over today's distance lto. William Haggas and Johnny Murtagh have a great partnership together, with a 23% strike rate and a level stakes profit of over £30. 5.25 Newmarket: Brockwell, 9/1 Betfred, win Brockwell completed a hat trick lto. He won comfortably over just short of today's distance at Haydock. He has been put up eight pounds for that win but he could still have a bit in hand over the handicapper. Trainer Tom Dascombe has his stable in fine form at the moment, with a 25% strike rate and a level stakes profit of £17.49 this month (22% SR since start of July from 169 runners). Jockey Richard Kingscote, who has been on board for all of Brockwell's runs, has a decent record at Newmarket and is having a good season.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 29th of September 3.40 Newmarket - 1pt win Rewarded @ 20/1 (Bet365) Not a bet for the faint-hearted but James Toller's runner ought to have a good chance here so long as he's well positioned and gets the breaks necessary to land such a competitive and big-field handicap. A draw in stall 26 is probably not a bad place to be and he certainly has the form to figure. You can forgive him his run in a French Group 2 last time behind the classy Saint Baudolino and that would just have been a step too far for him although he wasn't disgraced. Prior to that he was tried over 1m5f when he just pulled too hard and didn't get home. This sort of test will be ideal for him I feel as a strongly-run affair over this far is spot on I feel. Prior to those runs he ran a cracker at Royal Ascot when 3rd in a Group 3 behind Energizer and Stipulate and on that form he'd have a big chance today. It naturally put his mark up a fair bit but he's an improving type who is a course winner and fingers crossed he can repeat the feat today.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 29th of September 5.25 Newmarket - 2pts win Angel Gabrial @ 8/1 (Bet365) I think the favourite is a touch short as the race at Goodwood last time favoured those held-up and I don't think it has worked out tremendously well. That allows a rock solid horse to be a nice price and he looks sure to go well again this afternoon. He doesn't know how to run a bad race and went well at Ascot last time in a very hot 3yo handicap. He was drawn wide and had to weave his way through up the straight. He was very far back and didn't get to run in a straight line too much. Kieron Fallon takes over from Ted Durcan today and he might not have quite as much to do today. This isn't quite as strong a race and he should get a nice pace to run at. He has rock solid form in the book and should go close again.

[stewartd14]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 29th of September Cambridgeshire - 3.40 NMKT The support behind Start Right on here unnerves me slightly as he was the last one I scored off the shortlist. 1 pt ew Kings Warrior @ 16/1 Bet 365 1 pt ew Bancnuanaheireann @ 66/1 Stan James 0.5 pt ew Jacks Revenge @ 16/1 Bet 365 Kings Warrior comes here off the back of an impressive win at York off a mark of 91 a couple of months ago, and is an unexposed 5 year old going places now he seems to have got over the problems he had earlier in his career. He's been raised 10 lbs for that victory, but he looked more than 10 lb above his mark when taking the prize last time out. Ground is perfect, he'll see the trip out well, and Michael Murphy is riding well right now. A live contender. Bancnuanaheireann - The owner of this runner evidently doesn't particularly like racing journalists with a name like that. However, I have a really sneaky suspicion that Michael Appleby has got his horse very well handicapped for the race today. He looked very good on his first run in England when a solid 2nd at Goodwood despite meeting all sorts of trouble in running. Was then given a poor ride at Ascot in the race won by Boom or Busy. Hasn't run any sort of race the last twice, although as I said, I suspect connections had one eye on the Cambridgeshire. If he runs like he did at Goodwood back in July, he'll make his mark of 91 look very lenient here, and William Carson is an excellent jockey booking. The 66/1 on offer from Stan James is just far far too big. Jacks Revenge is the last selection here for George Bker. The horse racked up a couple of decent wins in the summer which, along with his unlucky 3rd at Goodwood last time, have just got him in here off a mark of 90. Looked well ahead of the handicapper at Goodwood despite being punished 10 lbs for his previous 2 wins. Would have won last time out with a bit more luck, and I think this horse is a good few lbs well in, and George Baker can train them.

[beaker1]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 29th of September

Betfred Cambridgeshire – Newmarket The seven-year-old Rambo’s Hall (‘92) and the eight-year-old Baronet (’80) are the only two older horses to win the Betfred Cambridgeshire since 1977 so it should be fairly safe to discount the chances of Stevie Thunder and the 2010 winner Credit Swap. In that same period there hadn’t been a single five-year-old winner until Credit Swap broke their long losing run in 2010 and woe and behold Prince Of Johanne followed suit last year. Therefore, five-year-olds can no longer be viewed in a negative light. In the last decade, three and four-year-olds have won six renewals and the strength of that trend is backed up when looking at the bigger picture over the last 35 years. Three-year-olds have won 11 times and four-year-olds 14 times or in other words 25 of the last 35 – a pretty strong return in anyone’s book. Six-year-olds may have only won the race six times since 1977 but four of those have come in the last 13 years. Their record looks even stronger considering that on average they are responsible for half as many runners as three-year-olds and a third as many as four-year-olds. The 2010 winner, Credit Swap along with I Cried For You and Chivalry all won the Betfred Cambridgeshire off an official rating in the high 80s and last year’s winner Prince Of Johanne did so off 91. But overall, seven of the last ten renewals have been won by horses officially rated between 95 and 102 suggesting that they could well be the group to focus on tomorrow. For the record, of the more fancied runners, Mukhadram, Chill The Kite, Bronze Angel and King’s Warrior all fall into this category. Newbury’s Dubai Duty Free Handicap, a 0-105 handicap run over 1m2f, has provided four recent Cambridgeshire winners. Blue Monday and Formal Decree had both recorded a top three finish in that particular race whilst Spanish Don and Tazeez had both finished mid-division. However, in recent seasons only 7 days separates the two fixtures and therefore it remains to be seen if it will continue have the same impact. Licence To Till is the only representative from that race tomorrow. Quite remarkably, 28 of the last 31 Cambridgeshire winners had achieved a top-four finish on their most recent start – Spanish Don, Tazeez and Supaseus being the three to miss out. Interestingly, both Spanish Don and Tazeez had been unplaced in the aforementioned race at Newbury, whilst Supaseus had hardly finished out with the washing when coming home fifth in a competitive handicap at Sandown. Good news for all of the market leaders. During the last decade, only Spanish Don and Prince Of Johanne have managed to win from a high draw. The overall trend suggests that those drawn in the nine highest numbered stalls are to be opposed – namely Rewarded, Talk About, Postscript, Making Eyes, Loving Spirit, Credit Swap, Mijhaar, Fury, Double Dealer and Spa’s Dancer. Two winning favourites over the past ten years isn’t that bad a return given that the Betfred Cambridgeshire is a fiercely competitive race. Four other winners had been no worse than 6th in the betting implying that the market leaders tend to run to form although this isn’t backed up by an average winning starting price of just under 24-1. However, if you were to discount the recent 100-1, 40-1 and 25-1 winners it has a much more respectable look to it. So overall, the best advice is to favour those towards the forefront of the betting but don’t be put off backing an outsider if one were to take your fancy. John Gosden has a strong record in the Cambridgeshire as from a relatively small number of runners he has won it twice in the last decade and three times overall but sadly he is without a runner this afternoon. In fact, none of the trainers with a particularly strong record in the race have runners this year. Shortlist Bronze Angel Chil The Kite King’s Warrior (Burano) Conclusion BRONZE ANGEL has a profile that seems to fit in well with the roll of honour of past Cambridgeshire winners. After improving from run-to-run as a juvenile he hasn’t done a lot wrong this season with a solid effort on his reappearance at Musselburgh before winning a competitive Doncaster handicap. But perhaps his best effort came in the Britannia when he finished a strong 3rd having been drawn on the wrong side. He hasn’t raced since then, with Marcus Tregoning no doubt keen to protect his handicap mark, so he should arrive here fresh and with a few pounds still up his sleeve. Once again he hasn’t been done any favours by the draw but stall 21 isn’t the end of the world and I find it encouraging that William Buick has been booked for the ride for quite some time. Hughie Morrison’s Chil The Kite has a similar lightly-raced profile. After wins at Doncaster and Ascot, this Notnowcato colt ran well to finish less than 3L behind the well-regarded Thistle Bird, who runs this afternoon in the Rosemary Stakes. If she dominates there I can see Morrison’s colt coming in for plenty of support on Saturday. King’s Warrior might be a 5yo but he doesn’t have many miles on the clock and judged on his comfortable victory at York in July he may still have further improvement in him although he will need to as the handicapper walloped him with a 10lb rise for his rout on the Knavesmire. But like the main selection, Peter Chapple-Hyam put him away after that, so perhaps he believes that a mark of 101 was worth protecting? For those who fancy a punt at a big price Burano might just fit the bill. Currently around 33-1 this Dalakhani colt showed some reasonable form as a juvenile and out in Dubai over the winter when he beat Entifaadha in a listed race before having his limitations exposed in the Gr2 UAE Derby behind Daddy Long Legs. He made his belated reappearance at Newbury last weekend when he ran just the sort of race that you would expect for one being aimed at the Cambridgeshire a week later. Fallon wasn’t overly hard on the horse, no doubt with one eye on tomorrow’s race, but it will have blown away the cobwebs and he could be one that has slipped under the radar. get in bronze angel

[stewartd14]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 29th of September Good call Beaker and BH :clap

[robertob]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 29th of September

14.35 Haydock: Hopes N Dreams @ 11/2 Betfred Hopes N Dreams improved all the way through this year. She developed unfortunately though a habit of starting badly her races more often than not. That was also the case here at Haydock lto. She started slowly and had also to overcome a wide draw. She made it over from her draw to the stands rail eventually and travelled then like a dream. She was short of room in the closing stages, but when she finally found a gap she finished like a train. Too late, though. This performance however suggests that she is in excellent form and very well handicapped either. She's been raised by only 1lb for this effort and I expect her to go very close today again. The wide draw is probably not ideal, but the slow ground even more I guess. She has form on very softish going and I think it will help that the leading horses might tire earlier then they did lto so that she can win this race with a late burst of speed. 15.40 Haydock: Oojooba @ 9/2 Paddy Power Oojooba ran a massive race at Salisbury recently as a 82 rated filly in a good Listed race. She raced in rear of the field which wasn't an advantage as the eventual winner Operal Gal could dictate the pace from the front as she liked and surly didn't set a frenetic gallop. When the pace quickened Oojooba wasn't in the best position but made headway from the rear of the field in impressive style on the inside. She finished 2nd eventually, only 2¼ lengths beaten. A massive effort which suggests she is very much capable of racing against opposition as good as you find in Listed races. This form is a really strong form as well as Opera Gal won another Listed race after that and the 3rd places Rumh won a good class 2 Handicap. Oojooba's mark was raised by 8lb for this effort but that looks just fair and may still underestimate her class. She also drops down significantly in class here today, running in a class 3 handicap. The heavy ground shouldn't cause any problems to her and I think she should be just too good for this opposition here today. 16.40 Chester: Deia Sunrise @ 13/2 Betfred Deia Sunrise was a really unlucky loser here at Chester two weeks ago. The difference between loosing and winning was that Deia Sunrise had to overcome the widest draw and was as a result a clear run denied while the eventual winner was able to hug the rail and safe the decisive yards to win the race in a photo in the end. Deia Sunrise has a much better draw today and won't mind the 3lb raise in the mark for this massive recent effort. He is certainly in excellent form and improved through the year by 14lb. This here today represents a step up in class but I think he's not a finished article yet and can go very close again with a clear run.

Hopes N Dreams & particularly Oojooba disappointing unfortunately. Great performance by Deia Sunrise though. Held on gamely to win it in a photo! So can't complain today. Well done with Bronze Angel guys. Excellent tipping! :clap

[Stevet1859]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 29th of September Nice one with Bronze Angel BH & Beaker :clap takes some finding, and Dela Sunrise for Robertob :ok

[BillyHills]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 29th of September Well done Roberto and Beaker, nice write ups too:clap

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing Saturday 29th of September Bronze Angel...... Crazy how you could find the winner of that race, i was searching or 4th. :D