Flat Racing ~ Saturday 22nd September

[BillyHills]

1.45 Ayr: William Hill Ayr Bronze Cup (Class 4) (6f) The first of three highly competitive sprints and Jack Dexter looks the most unexposed horse in the line up and will have plenty of supporters. I can’t ignore Cheveton who has won here twice in these races and will love the ground and would be my choice of those drawn low. Of the high numbers I would give Arctic Feeling a chance for trainer Richard Fahey, he ran well on Friday and if over those exertions could go well again. If Arctic Feeling pulls out then Tajneed at the prices looks too big. Selections; 2pts Cheveton 13/2 Paddy Power 1pt EW Arctic Feeling 20/1 Bet365 (5 places) 1pt EW Tajneed 25/1 BetVictor (5 places) Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/ayr-betting-third-cup-success-on-the-cards-for-cheveton-at-ayr Silver and Gold Cups to follow;

[beaker1]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 22nd September William Hill Ayr Gold Cup – Ayr Our Jonathan proved a welcome winner for the updates last year but at the time of writing he has a couple of big negatives to overcome. He currently sits at the head of the betting, although the well-fancied runners may flip-flop in the lead up to the race, but it still needs pointing out that 33 of the last 34 Ayr Gold Cup favourites have been beaten. So whilst the favourite, whoever it is, can be taken on it should still pay to favour the more fancied runners as 10 of the last 12 winners had been no worse that 9th in the betting. The other major negative concerning Our Jonathan is the fact that no horse has recorded back-to-back victories in the Ayr Gold Cup since Heronslea in 1930/31 although Funfair Wane did win the race in 2002 and 2004. A poor draw in a race such as this can often put paid to a horse’s chances before the stalls have even opened. History tells us that the 8 stalls closest to either rail tend to produce the most winners although trying to decide which rail is often a conundrum in itself. The bulk of the more fancied runners this year look to have a low to middle draw but historically high numbers seem to be best when it is riding good to soft or worse at Ayr so maybe we will get a less fancied winner this year? It is no secret that Dandy Nicholls has a remarkable record in the Ayr Gold Cup having won 6 of the last 12 renewals but he hasn’t appeared to be the force of old for a couple of seasons now and his duo of runners this year, Beacon Lodge and Rodrigo De Torres are both big prices. In more recent season’s Kevin Ryan has the best record having won the race in 2007 with Advance and last year with Our Jonathan. I have already explained why the latter may struggle to retain his crown but Pintura, Louis The Pious and Captain Ramius also represent the Yorkshire based Irishman. Another Irishman based in Yorkshire is Richard Fahey who won this race in 2006 with Fonthill Road. He is also represented by 4 runners tomorrow – Brae Hill, Alben Star, Johannes and Miss Work Of Art. The only other current trainer to have won this race and which has runners tomorrow is David Barron. His victory did come back in 1996 with the only favourite in modern times to have won this race, Coastal Bluff, but even so his trio of Pearl Ice, Colonel Mak and Waffle all warrant a closer look. As a rule of thumb it usually pays to oppose any runners trained in the south as in the last decade only Presto Shinko and Jimmy Styles have taken the honours and a similar pattern is revealed when looking back even further – not great reading if you are a fan of the current second favourite Sholaan. When it comes to the trend surrounding age, the positive results are rather inconclusive. There is very little to separate the 4, 5 and 6yos although if you had to, there would be a very marginal victory to the youngest of that trio. But when it comes to horses older than 6, I would be keen to oppose them as the last 7yo winner of this race was Hard To Figure way back in 1993 so as much as it loathes me to do it, my old favourite Borderlescott has to be overlooked along with Johannes, Regal Parade and Beacon Lodge. I would also be inclined to dismiss the chances of Miss Work Of Art and Sholaan as no 3yo has won the Ayr Gold Cup since Funfair Wane in 2002. Further back in time they did have a few winners in the 80s and 90s but that would really be scraping the barrel. The Stewards’ Cup is easily the best pointer to the Ayr Gold Cup as 7 of the last 15 winners had been beaten at Goodwood. Of course, Hawkeyethenoo won this year’s Goodwood showpiece but the race is also represented by Waffle (4th), Alben Star (5th), Shropshire (8th) and Borderlescott (9th). If horses which ran at Goodwood as the ones to follow then those horses which ran at Royal Ascot are almost certainly not. 8 of the last 12 Ayr Gold Cup winners had bypassed the Royal Meeting. Quite why that makes a difference I have no idea, but it cannot be ignored. The final trend surrounds last time out form but it isn’t particularly strong. Even so, the fact that 6 of the last 12 winners had been unplaced on their most recent start does warrant a mention. Shortlist Maarek Mirza Loius The Pious Colonel Mak Conclusion Trends can be a very handy tool to use, as evidenced last weekend, but they are not the be all and end all especially when it comes to such extreme ground as they are likely to have at Ayr. Even though one horse may be particularly strong from a trends perspective it would be completely pointless backing them if they are not confirmed mud-lovers. So top of my shortlist is MAAREK who rather than be inconvenienced by the ground will actually be better because of it. The fact that he would be carrying top-weight would normally put me off but Peter Nagle, who trains down the road from Ballydoyle, has took off 5lb by using claimer Mark Enright. The horse couldn’t be coming into the race in better form having won 4 times this season which included victory in the Gr3 Chipchase Stakes at Newcastle on bottomless ground and last time out in the Gr3 Renaissance Stakes at the Curragh when again there was some ease in the going. His draw in stall 13 wouldn’t be ideal in a normal renewal but with the ground as testing as it is, this race is anything but normal. I keep looking at Mirza and cannot for the life of me see why he is so big at 25-1 given that he was a 5f heavy ground listed winner at Cork in June and likely to improve for this step up in trip. He ran okay next time out when 6th in the Gr3 Sapphire Stakes at the Curragh when he had excuses but he had no obvious ones next time when he disappointed in the Gr3 Hackwood Stakes at Newbury. However, that was his 4th run in just over a month and it is more than possible that the edge had been taken off him. Rae Guest has sensibly given him a rest since then and so he arrives at Ayr a fresh horse. Stall 24 looks an added bonus if, as I believe, the near side provides the faster strip of ground and I fancy him to run a big race even if the bookies don’t. Louise The Pious comes into the race with an almost perfect race record having finished runner-up in the Stewards’ Cup consolation race at Goodwood and then 3rd in the Great St Wilfrid. He has a decent draw in stall 6, if that side proves to be the best, and at around the 20-1 mark strikes me as a respectable each-way bet. I wouldn’t say that he is a confirmed mud-lover but although he has only won on good to soft he has handled heavier conditions in the past without winning. I do like Colonel Mak and I think it is fair to say that this race has always been on his agenda after he won well on soft ground at Hamilton in July. He run a solid race to finish 4th behind Our Jonathan in this race last season and 12 months prior to that he won the Silver Cup so clearly likes the sea air up in Scotland. If the high numbers do provide the best side to be he is ideally positioned to take advantage in stall 22. I would be even more positive about his chances but although he handles soft ground I am not so sure about anything worse.