Flat Racing ~ Saturday 15th Sept.

[BillyHills]

3.00 Doncaster: Ladbrokes Portland Handicap (Class 2) (5f140yds) Another very tricky renewal of the Portland Handicap and as usual plenty can be given a squeak on their best form, I’m convinced low numbers will be at a disadvantage so will discount the likes of Hallelujah and Rex Imperator. I do like Face The Problem and Kaldoun Kingdom who are both drawn on the stands side and I wouldn’t put anyone off Ancient Cross who seems ready to return to winning form before too long. Skybet and Paddy Power are paying out on the first 5 home so shop around. Selections: 1pt EW Face The Problem 12/1 Skybet (1^st 5places) 1pt EW Kaldoun Kingdom 16/1 Coral Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/doncaster-betting-face-the-problem-can-land-portland-for-fallon-and-osborne

[Lars]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 15th Sept. Portland Handicap – Saturday 15^th September 15:00 Doncaster A unique test considering the intermediate trip of 5f and 110 yards, which should ensure that those horses who traditionally stay on too late over 5f have a better chance than usual. It’s a fascinating renewal with a lack of progressive three year old types. That being said, there’s plenty of interesting contenders who are well-handicapped and are in-form. I think I’ve gone through every horse in the field, and come up with a couple who are overpriced at double figure odds. I generally tend to start my analysis of these big-field handicaps with a look at where the likely pace is to come from. There is generally an assumption that high-drawn runners at Doncaster do best but winners have come from all over the track at this meeting and I’m going to assume that any such bias is non-existent at present. You need to be drawn close to the pace but this creates an interesting problem, as there seems to be a distinct lack of genuine front-runners in the race, with only Captain Dunne really fitting that bill. He’s surely better over 5f and has been out of sorts this season anyway but his inclusion could help those drawn low if he hangs about towards the front for longer than you’d expect. This will benefit the likes of Tax Free and Steps who will benefit from a good pace to chase. The latter named proved his effectiveness on better ground last time and will certainly relish the extended distance. Hallelujah is another fancied runner drawn close to Captain Dunne and she’s still on an extremely workable mark considering she ran a cracking race when last seen at York in a Group 3. She came with a strong run down the outside but just got tired in the closing stages and a revised mark of 97 looks fair considering she probably ran to a three figure rating that day. It’s plausible she’s been saved for this race but the going has to be a concern, especially considering all her best efforts have come with cut in the ground and looks to have a softer ground knee action, alongside being a progeny of Avonbridge. It’s a risk I’m not willing to take with quicker ground likely by post-time and she’s worth taking on. Rex Imperator and Prodigality are both drawn in single figures and come with a progressive look to their form, albeit the former had a blip on softer turf last time. He’d been progressive beforehand, winning at Windsor and catching the eye at Newmarket before getting no luck in-running at the Ebor meeting. Softer ground was no good to him last time (never travelled) and today’s conditions will definitely suit. He has the profile of a horse that will be playing a hand in Group races next season but I’m willing to take him on, especially given he needs plenty of luck and this sort of big-field handicap could come a little bit too soon, as he isn’t quite as battle-hardened as many of these. A similar remark can be made for Prodigality and although he’s undoubtedly capable of further progression, these sorts of horses are always worth taking on in such a competitive field. Of the others drawn in a single figure stall, Kingsgate Choice seems to be more of a sprinting type over 5f and I’m sure that is where we’ll see his best, whilst Beacon Lodge doesn’t look in any sort of form at the moment and the drop to sprinting for the first time in a while does look like clutching at straws, even with a useful 7lb claimer on board. I was hopeful we’d see the best of New Planet this season but he hasn’t really set the world on fire with his efforts this time around and looks to be paying the price by the handicapper for his juvenile exploits. Moving on to those drawn middle to high, and Mass Rally has to be one of the more frustrating horses in training at the moment, especially given that he often downs tools when asked to go by the winner and if he was more straightforward, I honestly feel he could be a Group horse. This big-field handicap is probably the best place for him given he can track a decent pace and should get some company to run with for the majority of the race but I’m not sure he’ll get a decent enough tow into the contest and although he’s likely to place, can be taken on for win only purposes, especially with the handicapper refusing to take any chances. Bajan Tryst ran a creditable race last time at Goodwood, probably going for home a little too early considering he likes to come through horses late on nowadays and looks to have been targeted at this contest as he hasn’t been seen since. He didn’t figure last year in this race off a lower mark though and although he’ll run better than that this time around, especially with Graham Lee back on for the first time since the victory at Musselburgh earlier in the season, there are stronger options elsewhere. Secret Witness isn’t well-handicapped by any stretch of the imagination but hasn’t been disgraced in some tough races this season, including the Nunthorpe. He disappointed in last year’s renewal though and if the ground goes quick that may be enough to compromise his chance. Move In Time will be suited by the drying ground as I feel he needs it properly quick to be seen at his best. He was disappointing last time out but the loose ground at Beverley wasn’t his bag and is better than that. There is some encouragement on the dam side for the application of the visor but Monsieur Bond progeny are only 1/35 with that headgear applied and it isn’t guaranteed to bring improvement, but he’s one of only two pace-angles in the race and could set it up for those drawn close to him. Edge Closer was an easy winner last time out, looking like he’d be more than capable of following that up. This is obviously tougher but he was rated 112 at one point, so still has mileage from a current mark of 94. He did have an ideal draw last time though but this intermediate trip promises to suit so is not easily dismissed and his proximity to Move In Time will definitely help. Both Singeur and Barnet Fair are liable to run their race and the trip here should benefit them both, but I’d say they were both handicapped to the hilt and don’t have enough in hand to pick up a race of this nature. Picabo, Kaldoun Kingdom and Ancient Cross are all capable of improving on their current marks, the first mentioned an unexposed improver while the other two are in form and are well-handicapped to boot. They will however, have to put up with a genuine lack of guaranteed pace on their side and although I’d take their chances seriously usually, I’m willing to take them on given this quirk of the race. Face The Problem has this problem to settle with also, alongside the fact that it will be his third hard race in three weeks and it might just start to take its toll. Fratellino is consistent but needs to find more from his turf mark and looks fairly exposed on grass, whilst Doc Hay caught the eye last time out but this extended 5f might be enough to catch her out as all her best form has come at the minimum trip. Verdict An extremely difficult puzzle to solve made even harder considering there has to be big doubts to where the pace is going to come from. I think that those drawn low will have an advantage in this season’s renewal and that could set things up for STEPS, who had previously looked like he needed soft ground to be a genuine contender in these top handicaps but his effort at the Shergar Cup last time out proved that he handles faster turf adequately and I’ve hopes that he’ll get a good pace to chase set by Captain Dunne. This 5f and 110 yard trip will definitely suit considering that he stays 5f so well but doesn’t quite show his best over 6f and there looks to be plenty of mileage left in his current mark, given he won so readily two starts ago. He wouldn’t want the ground to come too quick but the extended distance will give him more time to pick up and he’s value at his current odds of 16/1, as he should be closer to 11/1. The likes of Ancient Cross, who was beaten less than a length off a 6lb higher mark in last season renewal would rank as solid selection also but there’s a distinct lack of pace around him and he’ll need a good tow to win this, so they’ll probably have to hope that Move In Time, lit up by the visor, sets the fractions for them. The likes of Prodigality and Rex Imperator are respected but I wouldn’t want to be taking single figure prices on those two in a race such as this. Meanwhile, EDGE CLOSER is also worthy of some support as although everything went right for him last time out at Sandown, he’s looked to win with plenty in hand and a 7lb rise looks lenient. He might not have that bad a draw, is another that won’t be phased by the extended 5f (had Listed race form over 6f back in 2010, rated 100+) and is in the right hands. Of the others, Bajan Tryst ran better than the bare form suggested last time and is more than capable of running into a place. Portland Handicap – Selections Steps; 1pt @ 16/1 Paddy Power (bog) Edge Closer; 1pt @ 18/1 Boylesports (bog)

[BillyHills]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 15th Sept. 4.15 Doncaster: **** Park Stakes (Group 2) (7f) A very good Park Stakes this year with all eight runners having the form to go close but you cant get away from the fact that if the real Strong Suit turns up he should take this without much fuss. He has been messed about this season with trips but this 7f is no doubt his best and this time wont be giving Lethal Force such a long lead and should reverse that form. As an alternative I like Foxtrot Romeo who has more to offer and as a 3yo he gets the age allowance. Selections: 4pts Strong Suit 5/2 Ladbrokes 1pt Foxtrot Romeo 10/1 >Paddy Power Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/doncaster-betting-strong-suit-to-bounce-back-in-park-stakes-at-doncaster

[beaker1]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 15th Sept. Ladbrokes Portland (Handicap) – Doncaster, Saturday 15th September During the 1990s 3 & 4yo’s had a decent record in the Portland but in more recent season’s horses from that age group have been having a tough time of it – the 4yo Out After Dark providing their only winner in the last decade. That leaves a bit of a question mark hanging over the likes of Rex Imperator, Hallelujah, Face The problem, Move In Time, Steps, New Planet, Picabo, Barnet Fair and Prodigality. It is the 5yos have that have been dominant of late; winning each of the last 5 renewals. Only 5 are set to face the starter tomorrow – Doc Hay, Singeur, Mass Rally, Kingsgate Choice and Fratellino. 10 of the last 12 winners were officially rated 93 or higher so Picabo, Fratellino, Barnet Fair and Prodigality all get an early bath. Taking it one stage further 7 of the last 8 winners were officially rated 95 or higher so the chances of Mass Rally, Ancient Cross, Edge Closer, New Planet, Kaldoun Kingdom and Kingsgate Choice must be viewed with a degree of caution. Last time out form is quite important in the Portland as those that achieved a top 4 finish last time have won 8 of the last 12 renewals. Of those still in contention Hallelujah, Face The Problem, Doc Hay and Steps all qualify. For the record, the others are Mass Rally, Edge Closer, Kingsgate Choice, Picabo and Prodigality. The draw in any big field sprint such as this is always important. Historically, it has been those coming from a double figure draw; 7 of the last 12 to be precise. However, rather than blindly rely on the trends, the ground should always be taken into consideration and the best guide is to always watch the previous day’s action to get the best guide to which side of the track is riding faster. Given the competitive nature of races such as the Portland there is always going to be the occasional shock. However, aside from those the Portland has been a decent race for those towards the head of the betting as 8 of the last 12 winners had been no worse than 6th on the bookies boards. The prices are sure to change in the build up to the race but at it stands Prodigality heads them all closely followed by Hallelujah, Picabo, Rex Imperator, Face the Problem and Mass Rally. The best ‘trials’ to focus on are the Great St Wilfrid Handicap and Goodwood’s Stewards’ Cup. 4 of the last 8 winners had finished down the field at Ripon and Tax Free (2nd), Singeur (6th), Barnet Fair (7th) and Secret Witness (14th) all represent that race this year. The Stewards’ Cup has supplied 5 recent winners so Bajan Tryst (10th) earns a tick in the right box. Finally, when it comes to trainers’ form Kevin Ryan, David Marnane, Gerard Butler, Clive Cox and John Quinn have records marginally better than the rest. Shortlist Doc Hay Mass Rally [ Hallelujah ] (Kaldoun Kingdom) Conclusion DOC HAY had a decent season last year when winning 4 times over the minimum trip with arguably his best performance coming on his final start when not beaten far by 2 classy types in Sirius Prospect and Mayson. He is yet to get off the mark this season but he has run some solid races in defeat. He was given a break after finishing 7th at Nottingham in June and one would assume that his first run back at Haydock, where he finished 4th – beaten less than 2L, was to get him spot on for this race. Although he is yet to win beyond 5f he does just about get 6f so this unique trip may prove just about ideal for him. He has a decent draw close to the near rail and if all things fall right he could reward each-way support. Mass Rally has been very consistent this season without getting his head in front, in fact he is quite a difficult horse to win with. But his last couple of efforts have suggested that he does have a race in him. His high cruising speed should carry him to the front in what can often be a tough race. The only question is can he stay there. The least exposed in the line up is Hallelujah who has only seen the racetrack 5 times despite being a 4yo. However, he has won 3 of those 5 starts and therefore it is possible that he is still open to improvement. He was only beaten 1L in the Gr3 Summer Stakes at York on his most recent start and if he can build on that performance he should go close. The final one for the shortlist is Kaldoun Kingdom who only lost out in a blanket finish at York last time. He is on a losing run dating back to March 2010 but he has dropped down the handicap and it is worth noting that 4 of his 5 wins have come during September or October. Stall 20 isn’t a bad draw if he can make the most if it and this course and distance winner does look like each-way material at around 16-1.

[Aidymac]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 15th Sept. *Ursa Major - Doncaster 3:40* The price on Camelot is too short in my opinion, which offers good each-way value for some of the other runners. I thought Camelot was not that impressive at the Curragh last time out, so although of course it is a top animal and deserves to be clear favourite, i am not sure it sould be touching 4/11 in places. Ursa Major is another Irish raider for Thomas Carmody, and they have booked Johnny Murtagh who is riding very well at the moment and had a couple of winners at Donny over the week. Ursa Major i thought was very impressive in the St Leger Trial at the Curragh last time out, beating a decent horse in Hartani, and those two were 23 lengths clear of the third. Camelot deserved fav, and i would happily take third place here, but i think it could give Camelot a run for it's money, especially with Johnny Murtagh v Joseph O'Brien. *0.5 Points e/w @ 16/1 Bet365 BOG*

[beaker1]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 15th Sept. Ladbrokes St Leger - Doncaster, Saturday 15th September. There are some strong trends surrounding the St Leger so it will be very interesting to see how Camelot performs from a trends perspective as his bids to re-write the history books. Each of the last 12 St Leger winners had achieved a top 3 finish on their most recent start, so Camelot gets off to a good start although this is a pretty damning early statistic for Thomas Chippendale and the pacemaker Dartford. Camelot also scores well when it comes to the record of his trainer, Aidan O’Brien, who has won the St Leger 3 times courtesy of Milan, Brian Boru and Scorpion. It is 7 years since his last victory in the race but it would surely be harsh to hold that against him. But overall, the strongest recent record belongs to John Gosden who has won the St Leger 4 times thanks to Shantou in 1996 and more recently with Lucarno, Arctic Cosmos and Masked Marvel. Ignoring the pacemaker, the Clarehaven maestro has a strong representation tomorrow in the shape of Michelangelo and Thought Worthy. Camelot is currently a very short price for tomorrow’s race but that shouldn’t be a problem as favourites have won 8 of the last 15 renewals which isn’t a bad return for such a prestigious race as this. Previous Classic form is also important as 9 of the last 12 winners had run in a European Derby of some description. Of course, Camelot scorched to a memorable success at Epsom but for the record those that finished in his wake were Main Sequence (2nd) and Thought Worthy (4th). But not content with his win at Epsom, Camelot also won the Irish equivalent so he is a clear leader on this trend. The French Derby doesn’t feature this year. Other than the various Derbys, there are only two other key trials. York’s Great Voltigeur has supplied 6 of the last 11 winners with all 6 achieving a top 3 finish – 3 winners, 2 runners-up and 1 finishing 3rd. As often seems to be the case, York’s Gr2 is well represented tomorrow with 4 of the 6 runners due to face the starter on Town Moor. Thought Worthy and Main Sequence lock horns once again after only a neck separated them on the Knavesmire along with Encke who was 2L back in 3rd and Thomas Chippendale who was a further 2 1/2L back in 5th. The Gordon Stakes is the only other race worthy of a mention as 4 of the last 12 St Leger winners had run at Goodwood; with three bringing up the big race double and Arctic Cosmos improving on his 3rd place finish at Goodwood. This year’s race was won by Frankel’s full-brother Noble Mission who beat Encke by little more than a nostril with Michelangelo 2 1/2L back in 3rd. So the only flaw in Camelot’s armour could be his lack of stamina but then that comment would apply to most of the runners as only Guarantee, who won the Melrose, and Ursa Major, who won a St Leger Trial at the Curragh, have raced over this far. There is an element of guess work required but part of that can be removed by considering that 12 of the last 14 winners of this race were by a stallion with a Racing Post stamina index figure of 11f+. So being by Montjeu (11.7f), once again Camelot sails through with flying colours as do the majority of the other runners. However, the current second favourite Main Sequence is by the American Stallion Aldebaran who only has an index figure of 9.9f whilst Encke by Kingmambo (9.9f) and Thomas Chippendale by Dansili (9.2f) also fall some way short. It is a shame that there are no fillies lining up tomorrow as they have a pretty good record in the St Leger with the last 6 Oaks winners to run here all achieving a top 3 finish. Shortlist Camelot (Michelangelo) (Thought Worthy) Conclusion My natural instinct is to always take on the favourite but in the case of CAMELOT I just can’t bring myself to do it. Whilst it is unfair on him to put him in the same category as Frankel, there can be no getting away from the fact that he is a very classy colt. Looking back, it was a weak Guineas that he won but you cannot knock his performance over a trip that was inadequate and on testing ground. He scared a lot of rivals off in the Derby and it was easy to see why as he won pretty much as he liked under a brilliant Joseph O’Brien ride. He was less impressive on the eye in the Irish Derby but given the bog-like conditions at the Curragh his class still shone through. He has had plenty of time to be freshened up after that race but it still leaves a small doubt in my head. You only have to look back at recent St Legers to see horses who lost the race off the back of a hard race last time – Kite Wood, Rewilding and Sea Moon are just 3 that spring to mind. So, on that basis I won’t be backing him at 1-3 or whatever he is sent off although come 3:40 I will be cheering for him for every step of the 1m6f132y. After Michelangelo finished a narrowly beaten 3rd on his debut in the listed Newmarket Stakes I immediately had him down as a St Leger contender. Victories in the listed Cocked Hat Stakes and then in a valuable sales race at Newmarket didn’t alter that view and neither did his defeat in the Gr3 Gordon Stakes– one of the key trials. In fact I was more buoyed by the fact that he was beaten as I like to think that Gosden had left a little bit to work on for the main event in September. Agreed, he doesn’t have a massive turn of foot but he is a resolute galloper and with the aid of a pacemaker I am hoping that the race pans out perfectly for him. William Buick prefers Thought Worthy which is understandable given his Great Voltigeur success but Gosden couldn’t have booked a better replacement in Frankie Dettori who has won the St Leger 3 times in the last 7 years and 5 times overall. Camelot may well have too much class for Michelangelo on the day but I don’t think he will be far behind and he looks a solid each-way selection. Thought Worthy is right up there from a trends perspective and could be very dangerous to under-estimate with Gosden and Buick winning the last 2 renewals. This Dynaformer colt made his way onto my Fifty for the Flat shortlist after his sole start at Newcastle as a juvenile and I cannot say that he has let us down. A full-brother to Gosden’s 2007 winner Lucarno, he should have little difficulty with the extra 2f and he will be suited if the ground stays on the faster side of good. He won’t be far away as long as his battle with Main Sequence at York hasn’t left any lasting effects.

[cpo]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 15th Sept. 1.50 Doncaster Quick Wit 3pts win @ 8/1 SkyBet Godolphin has a strong hand here but I just prefer the claims of the 2 SBS runners with Quite Wit marginally preferred to Invisible Man. Invisible Man looked very unlucky last time out at York in a competitive handicap, never getting a run and never getting into contention. He would have finished much closer with a clear run and must have a chance in this if turning up in the same mood. The one I do like however is Quick Wit, who has had 2 runs since returning from Dubai and was unlucky to get beat last time out. The horse that beat him that day was Highland Colori who was unlucky to get beat today by Cape Classic after getting hampered by a loose horse. Quick Wit was running over 10f over in Dubai and won a very good handicap over that distance so it is no surprise to see him stepping up to a mile here after 2 runs over 7f which didn’t appear to suit. He was first off the bridle last time out at Newmarket but stayed on well towards the finish to suggest a step up in trip would bring about more improvement. He has the services of William Buick, which is a big plus, and there should be a good pace on here with a few confirmed front-runners in the field. This race should be run to suit and SBS continues in good form after his customary slow start to the season. 3.00 Doncaster Tax Free 1pt EW @ 25/1 Bet365 Mass Rally 1pt EW @ 12/1 Bet365 This has to be one of the toughest races I have looked at for a while. I really like Rex Imperator and Picabo but recent trends are against them and although they may go and win, I will side with a couple of others. Firstly Tax Free who has been rolling back the years of late, running extremely well. His effort at Haydock was a rare blip on what has been a very consistent season. He ran a blinder in the Great St Wilfrid at Ripon before backing that up with a good win at York. I fancy him to be back on form tomorrow with Adrian Nicholls back on board. The yard is in great form still and although he is drawn low, I don’t think there is much of a bias at the track. He is getting on a bit now at 10yrs of age but we all seen what Nanton was so close to doing today in nearly taking the Mallard. Tax Free looked unlucky in this race last year, coming from mid-pack but getting hampered in the run before running on strongly. He has been ridden more prominently this year which means he will keep out of trouble but also makes it much harder for him to win, as those held up are favoured in this race due to the fast pace set from start. Still I think he could nick a place and is worth chancing at the odds. The other one I like is Mass Rally who often comes there absolutely cruising, only to find zilch off the bridle. He ran a cracker at this track earlier in the season, to finish 2^nd to Rasaman and has ran consistently well since that run. He has finished 2^nd on his last 2 runs and deserves to get his head in front in one of these big field handicaps. Everything should be run to suit this horse tomorrow and don’t be surprised to see him cutting through the pack on the bridle. You do have to question his attitude as he doesn’t find much off the bridle but he is clearly talented and in good heart. He is drawn in the middle so will require luck in running but if turning up in the same mood as his last couple of runs, then he must have a good chance of at least making the frame.

[cpo]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 15th Sept. 3.40 Doncaster Main Sequence 2pts EW @ 9/1 PaddyPower There is every chance here that we are simply playing for a place but I fancy Main Sequence to run a big race even though both Camelot and Thought Worthy hold him on form. Main Sequence isn’t really bred to get this distance but to me his last 4 runs have all suggested a step up in trip would suit. He has been running on in all of his races over 12f and has looked unlucky at times. He did well to get so close in the Derby, before looking very unlucky over at Longchamp. Last time out at York Buick ran a cracker on Thought Worthy and nicked it from the front but my selection was closing near the finish. He will have no excuses in the race tomorrow as there is a pacemaker in the race for John Gosden . This should ensure a good gallop, which IMO will help, Main Sequence and his jockey Ted Durcan. David Lanigan is in great form at the moment and he has an excellent record at the track recently, operating at almost a 50% strike rate at Doncaster. I do think Camelot is the most likely winner but he is too short considering the stamina doubts. Still if we can nick a place then we still make a little profit so I will be happy with that. Fair play to Ballydoyle for attempting the triple crown… for that, they should be applauded.

[egg]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 15th Sept. going for a e/w double tomorrow as i think both horses should make the frame and if anything happens to the favourites they may well win. St Leger 3.40 Doncaster ~ Main Sequence 8/1 Obvious contender and ran with great credit against Thought Worthy last time as he was the only one to come from the back off the pedestrian pace set by Buick on Thought Worthy. Chased home Camelot in the Derby where I didn't think he handles the track that well yet was ahead of Thought Worthy then. I do like Thomas Chippendale but think he's better with cut and Ursa Major could also go well but main Sequence ticks more boxes for me. Park Stakes 4.15 Doncaster ~ Pastoral Player 8/1 One of my favourite Trainer/Jockey partnerships and if Strong Suit fails to shine(which I think he might) then the race is wide open. A strongly run 7f should be ideal and hes been contesting this level with credit this season. Foxtrot Romeo should go well but I've a suspicion that he'd better off with a strong run mile rather than 7f. 1pt e/w double @ Ladbrokes

[Lodge]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 15th Sept. Newcastle 2.00 - Auto Mac @ 6/1 Bet365 Backed this one earlier in the week and would have gone very close if not blowing the start. Has shaped well on past 2 runs and is certainly good enough to win a lowly handicap like this. Good jockey booking in Luke Morris and step back up to 1m shouldnt be a problem. Can hopefully prove his is well treated and run well again.

[Lodge]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 15th Sept. Kempton - 6.50 - Wise Venture EW @ 11/1 BetVictor Interesting runner this one, considering he ran in the group 2 Gimcrack stakes last August now year on he is making his polytrack debut off a mark of 67. Alan Jarvis' 3yo has obviously not lived up to his potential but i feel he is worth a small bet now making his AW bow off a very lowly mark and with promising claimer Micheal Murphy onboard. Although he is yet to fire in 2012 he has fallen from a mark of 85 at the start of the year, he is clearly not straight forward as shown a few weeks back where he was withdrawn after not going to post properly but was well backed from 25's into 10/1. Is his first go at 10f too, after seeming to find 12f too far on his last 2 outings and if running anywhere near the level he showed in maidens last year i feel he could cause abit of a shock here.

[Stevet1859]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 15th Sept. 3:00 Doncaster: Doc Hay 1pt win 20/1 Bet365 & Ancient Cross 1pt win 14/1 Ladbrokes Doc Hay is quite lightly raced for a five year old sprinter, however he looks to be coming to the boil after a decent run last time out at Haydock. Doc Hay met trouble in running the previous twice yet still put up decent performances. With a clear run today Doc Hay could go well. And tt usually pays to be drawn high in this race and David O'Meara's charge will come out of 22. Ancient Cross is another that looks primed for a big run. Last time he put up a decent effort at York and William Buick is an eye catching booking today. Ancient Cross has performed well in this race before, when beaten less than a length last year when rated six pounds higher. There is a chance Ancient has been aimed at this all season. 3:40 Doncaster: Ursa Major 1pt e/w 25/1 (1/4 123) Bodog With the money coming for Ursa Major it could be worth snapping up the last of the 25s. (Still there with William Hill but they are 1/5 the odds a place.) Last season Hartani was rated one of Irelands top prospects along with Camelot, and on his last outing at The Curragh Ursa Major got the better of John Oxx's charge. Ursa Major lines up here in as a horse on an upward curve and on a four timer. The distance is unlikely to be a problem and Tommy Carmody has his string in decent form.

[mowgli77]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 15th Sept. Curragh 6.05pm Fame and Glory should probably be winning this but it flopped badly last year and wasn't at its best this year at Ascot. The 2 three year olds in the race look progressive and get plenty of weight but this age group have a poor record in the race historically. I'm not sure Aiken will get the trip and I'm not convinced Brown Panther is all that good. Full race preview below: http://www.punterslounge.com/curragh-betting-hartani-can-defy-poor-record-for-3-yr-olds-in-irish-leger Selections: 2pts WIN – Hartani 5-1 Ladbrokes (BOG) 1pt WIN – Massiyn 9-1 Ladbrokes (BOG)

[mowgli77]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 15th Sept. Doncaster 3.40pm Racing fans will be cheering on Camelot while value seekers will be hoping there is something in the field to beat it. Thomas Chippendale was expected to be a Derby horse but didn't winter well apparently and now goes for the Leger instead. I have a gut feeling Michelangelo will be like a coiled spring today and primed for this race but fear Ursa Major too. Good race in prospect, final classic of the year. Full preview below: http://www.punterslounge.com/doncaster-betting-thomas-chippendale-and-michelangelo-look-the-best-of-the-challengers-to-camelot Selections: 1pt EW – Thomas Chippendale 28-1 BetVictor (BOG) 1pt EW – Michelangelo 12-1 Bet365 (BOG)

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 15th Sept. 1.50 Doncaster - 2pts win Jake's Destiny @ 6/1 (Boyles) I posted this before his run at Goodwood:

4.55 Goodwood - 2pts win Jake's Destiny @ 10/1 (Bet365) Not the type of race I usually like to get involved in considering there are numerous in here with potentially progressive profiles but I am sweet on the chances of George Baker's runner, who is lightly raced, and has shown plenty of form in all starts to date. He's never been out of the frame and I'm hoping that will again be the case as he seems to be improving with every run. Having shown promise on debut when staying on over 6f at Wolverhampton, he comfortably got off the mark over the same c&d. Bumped into a horse rated 15lbs superior and only receiving 6lbs from it at Lingfield next time out, with that horse enjoying a soft lead as he loves, so it was no surprise to see him fail to turn him over. Still finished well to finish 2nd with Kieren Fallon allowing him to come home without being hit with the whip. That was his final run of 2011 as he was put away before going handicapping in 2012. He continued his improvement by chasing home the progressive Chil The Kite at Doncaster. That winner has won again well off 6lbs higher and also had the advantage of a recent run over my selection. The slight concern is that he took a little bit of time to find full stride so the drop to 7f isn't obviously a help. Judging on his pedigree the heavy ground he contested at Newmarket last time might not have been ideal, so to run as well as he did it a big encouragement. I think he'll be better on a sounder surface and he looked the likely winner for much of the contest. He travelled pretty well throughout and quickened with two others but just dropped to 3rd late on. He definitely does stay the mile but showed sufficient pace to suggest 7f won't be a problem now he's fully fit and the front three were clear at HQ. He's only 1lb higher for a neck defeat here so isn't handicapped out of things. Will probably need this to be a good test over this 7f trip, or at least be close to the pace and if either of those things come to fruition, I think I'm on a horse with plenty of hope.

In the end my slight fears over the trip proved correct as the 7f around Goodwood just wasn't ideal for him in such a competitive event. He stayed on steadily down the outside into 6th of 16 and wasn't too far behind the chasing pack who couldn't get very close to the impressive winner (won again next time out). It was clear that he needed either a more galloping track, further or both, and he gets both today as he returns to the track he ran very well at on his seasonal return. The winner of that race has done more to frank the form since and one of the runners that my selection clashed with in a three-way finish at Newmarket won by 8l in a handicap next time. His form looks rock solid and he's the only 3yo in the field here so he could be the one to side with receiving weight. Paul Hanagan is a top lightweight jockey so his booking is a positive and he can go really well returned to these conditions. 3.00 Doncaster - 1pt win Mass Rally @ 12/1 (Bet365) A win bet on this horse could be seen as committing punting suicide but he'll pop up one of these days as he's got so much talent and consistently runs well for all he flatters to deceive in these sort of races. However, I was more encouraged by his run at York last time out as rather than cruising through the field before finding little, he actually had lots to do with a furlong or so to run (just about stone last) but really came home well under pressure. He found much more off the bridle than normal and I'm hoping that was to do with the hood being applied to accompany the blinkers. Another thing in his favour today is the unique distance of 5f 140y which could be tailor-made for a horse like this who will relish a 5f pace with a few extra yards to help. He runs well at Doncaster and although I feel most of the pace is drawn low, he isn't too far away in stall 11 and there are a couple who wouldn't want to be a million miles away drawn nearby. He's sure to be there or thereabouts I would think and I just have a feeling it could all come together today with conditions absolutely perfect for him. He's traded at evens or shorter in the run on four of his last six starts and I just hope there aren't fingers burned in similar fashion today! 4.50 Doncaster - 2pts win Ajmany @ 6/1 (Bet365) Although I understand why the Gosden runner is the favourite for this I do feel the Luca Cumani-trained Ajmany should be a bit shorter than a 6/1 shot on what we've seen so far. He was clearly well thought of to be sent straight into listed company on debut over 5f at Ascot in the Windsor Castle stakes but found things happening far too quickly for him and was detached at halfway. However, he finished 14th of 23 having made some nice late progress and all things considered it was a good effort really. He was sent off the odds-on favourite at Yarmouth upped to 6f next time as he again shaped as if further would suit when beaten 1/2l by a horse now rated 95. On that evidence it looks like the mark of 81 handed to my selection could be lenient strictly speaking. It was clear 6f would be a bare minimum for him as he was outpaced before staying on again at York over that trip but it was another strong affair. The runner-up has won 2/2 since and will be rated in the 90s and the 3rd has proven his worth as a handicapper at around the 80-rated level. I just think my selection hasn't been running short of his mark at all over 6f so he should very much be able to continue on the upward curve off such a rating now racing under more suitable conditions. It was no surprise to see him comfortably get off the mark over 7f last time out in a maiden which looks solid. The 3rd, beaten 4l, has subsequently been given a rating of 77 having narrowly failed next time out and I just think there's more to come from Ajmany who wasn't doing much in front. There is stamina on his dam's side and the way he won showed there would be no issues over the mile trip here this afternoon. I still believe there's further scope off his mark and can prove tough to beat. 5.20 Doncaster - 1pt win Dreamspeed @ 10/1 (Ladbrokes) Fattsota is respected in here alongside others but he got a fairly soft lead at Ascot when winning last time and I just feel there are plenty of horses who won't want to be far away in this field. That should help my selection can a nice tow into the race which helps and he can be a keen-going sort so fingers crossed he will be able to settle okay this afternoon. He's a horse who showed plenty of ability in 2010 which included victory in the Epsom Derby Trial and a very good 3rd to Clowance and Poet in a hot Group 3. He wasn't seen for the best part of 18 months having disappointed a bit on the all-weather at Kempton and badly needed the return at Newbury in May. However, his two subsequent runs have been plenty promising enough and gives him a genuine chance of getting involved here. His surprise 4th of 15 at 40/1 in the Old Newton Cup was no fluke and he was simply a non-stayer in the Ebor when finishing 9th of 19. He raced freely throughout but travelled better than the vast majority and was in the firing line until backing out inside the final couple of furlongs. He wasn't disgraced in defeat, though, and the return to this trip will be a big blessing. His runs since his 2yo days have mainly come on soft ground which is interesting considering both career wins have come on a sound surface so I don't envisage a problem with the better ground on offer today. It should mean they go a bit quicker too which will definitely help as it he can drop his head then that would increase his chances convincingly. He should be in tip-top shape now having had three runs back after a long break and I just think he's overpriced in here. It is a competitive event but this is easier than a couple of the races he's run in recently and conditions can help him go close I hope.

[BillyHills]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 15th Sept. 2.40 Chester: Minstrell Recruitment Stand Cup (Listed) (1m4f66y) Interesting little contest and I think it rests between the favourite Modun and the Balding 3yo Goldoni. Modun has promised a lot in his career and has become a frustrating sort and this drop in class is make or break for the Godolphin runner, he wont be much of a price and may be worth opposing with Goldoni who hasn’t done a lot wrong this season and wont mind the sticky ground. Selections: 2pts Goldoni 5/1 Ladbrokes Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/chester-betting-balding-s-goldoni-can-upset-modun-in-chester-s-feature-race

[smith17]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 15th Sept. 1.50 Doncaster: Quick Wit, 7/1 Boylesports, win Quick Wit ran very well lto when he was beaten by just a neck by Highland Colori, who was narrowly beaten here yesterday. He steps up to a mile today after running over seven furlongs in his last two starts. It will suit as he has won over ten furlongs in Meydan back in January of this year. Ground will suit and he's on a competitive mark. Trainer Saeed Bin Suroor is in decent form and the booking of William Buick is eye catching. The pair have a good record together, with a 24% strike rate and a level stakes profit of £8.55. 2.25 Doncaster: Birdman, 10/1 Boylesports, e/w Birdman was beaten by a head, closing in with every stride, by Olympic Glory three runs ago in a group two. OG won another group two nto. Before that he won a maiden and a class 4 novice stakes race impressively. He has, however, been slightly disappointing in his last two runs. Lto he was a 2L third of four in a group two at the Curragh. He ran ok but allowed the front two to get a bit of a head start and never really threatened the winner. Before that he finished sixth of ninth in a group two at Goodwood. He was a bit keen early on and didn't appear to like the undulations of the track. Jockey Martin Lane was on board for those three impressive runs but was replaced for the other two. Lane is back in the saddle today which is a big plus. Trainer David Simcock is having a decent season, especially with his two year olds. The pair have a great record this year with two year olds, with five winners from just thirteen runners and a level stakes profit of £26.18. 3.00 Doncaster: Bajan Tryst, 25/1 Paddy Power, e/w (5 places) Trainer Kevin Ryan seems to target this race. He won it three times from 2002-04. York Glory was beaten about a length last year, Bajan Tryst was a half length second in 2010 along with fourth, sixth and seventh as well and he had second and fourth in 2009. Bajan Tryst is his only runner in this race this year. He won well off a mark of 96 four runs ago with today's jockey on board. He runs off 100 today after not doing much in his three runs since. He has had a six week break and I would expect Ryan to have him in top condition for today. Graham Lee is in the saddle today and as mentioned he was on board for BT's last win, which was his only time riding this horse. Lee has a very good record when riding for Ryan, with a 21% strike rate and a very healthy profit.

[shantystar]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 15th Sept. PASTORAL PLAYER 8/1 DONCASTER 4:15 GOING GOOD ,ON GOOD TO FIRM TRACK.

[Lars]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 15th Sept. ENSNARE (19:20) has been trained by a “who’s who?” directory of ‘gambling stables’ and is now in the care of Willie Musson but running in the same colours that he has for quite a while. Although he’s shown absolute nil since joining this stable, it’s fair to say that this regression isn’t a surprise considering the profile of the horse. Today, down to a ridiculously low handicap mark on his best form with an absence that is sure to freshen him up, it wouldn’t be much of a surprise if he was to take this race whilst landing a few bets for connections in the process. Ensnare has been trained by the likes of Ian Williams, Ann Duffield, Jeff Pearce and Noel Quinlan and it is hardly defamatory (especially in the case of Pearce) that these yards like to set one up for a punt. This is exactly what has been the plan with the horse on more than one occasion, heavily punted back in July of last year when he’d fallen to a mark of 55 and had been previously been positioned at the back of the field on its previous few starts. More prominent tactics were used and the race was won easily. Ensnare is equally effective at both 7f and a mile and seemed to come under the care of Willie Musson after “running too well” at Lingfield in March, when he was exceptionally weak in the market but almost won, even though patient tactics were employed and don’t really suit. He’s been in free fall in handicap terms since then but patient tactics have been used subsequently and Ensnare is pretty lazy. He needs to be kept interested and the way to do this is to track the leaders or lead, which could cause a problem in this race considering there’s plenty of pace on. Tracking the leaders is sufficient for him to run his race, though. The next question would be “how do you know that today will be that day?” It’s impossible to know for certain but I do think the 75 day break is a key piece of evidence in support of today being the right time to get involved. Three of his four wins have come off absences of more than 60 days and today’s outing bears similar hallmarks to that of his win for Noel Quinlan last season, as he was similarly out of form, had run plenty of times during this bad patch and then was given a break and dotted up. This bears striking similarities to his current situation. The market will of course be very useful but I’m willing to take a chance on him today, especially given his record when fresh is excellent, he’s easily capable of winning doing handstands if given the opportunity to do so. This won’t take much winning and it looks a perfect opportunity if connections see fit, so is worthy of support. Bets 19:20 Kempton – Ensnare; 2pts @ 8/1 Bet365 (bog)

[BillyHills]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 15th Sept.

PASTORAL PLAYER 8/1 DONCASTER 4:15 GOING GOOD ,ON GOOD TO FIRM TRACK.

Obviously a man of few words??

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 15th Sept. Only her second time at Doncaster and last time here she came home a close up 6th, she came out gate 17 that day back on 7th Sep 2011 and once again she comes out gate 17 again today. Now on a treble and has been stuck aside by Trainer Mr H.Candy and runs off a very nice weight, its a very tough race to call and a case could be said for about 12 of them. Once again Jockey Dane O'Neill takes the steering and its his sole ride on the card & also sole runner for Mr Candy. Doncaster 3pm - Picabo.

[chris34]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 15th Sept. 6.20 Kempton A few of these are on potentially dangerous marks but are required to bounce back. Hurricane Hymbrook often attracts money on the polytrack at Lingfield but often goes close but overall record a tad patchy despite being on a workable mark. One For Joules is another on a dangerous mark and although this is a better trip than last time over a mile, but probably still on the short side these days. Audacious went close last time out at Newmarket at a price of 40/1 which tells its own story, badly out of form all season and never really backed efforts up before so a risky one. Positively is the least exposed in the race but whether she offers much value as the favourite has to be questioned. 3^rd over a mile around here her best piece of form so far but that makes an opening mark of 67 look a tad harsh in reality despite breeding, the step up in trip could bring some improvement but it is needed in this race. The Chris Wall yard are going through a bit of a purple patch at present and Height Of Summer showed a lot more than she has for most of the season when stamina was stretched over slightly further around here last time out, 3lb lower today which returns her to her last winning mark which was over this CD this time last year. So if backing last effort up with yard in good form and well drawn for front running role. 2pt win Height Of Summer 11/2 bet365 6.50 Kempton 2^nd division of the previous handicap and little bit more current winning form to go on. Officer In Command bounced back from a lesser effort on turf last time out in a seller, latest form has come in sellers and claimers and despite this mark being 6lb below last handicap win doesn’t look as good as he once did at the moment. Spin Cast has joined a yard well known for getting extra out of exposed handicappers, he drifted markedly in the market last time on debut for yard in amateur event which would suggest they perhaps haven’t found the key to him yet and although return to this trip defenetily a positive would want to have seen more last time out. My Mate Jake has bounced back to form recently winning over CD last time out and at Wolves time before, 4lb higher today and this now requires a career best and didn’t score with a lot in hand last time out and the race rather fell into his lap and the 2^nd looked unlucky given how the race was run and he slightly disappointed earlier in week so looks weak form. Graylyn Valentino finally cashed in on potential he had shown earlier in his career on the AW, 3lb rise looks fair but this race just looks stronger and found out off marks similar to this before. Mcbirney is one to keep on side has dropped 10lb in the weights since a promising reappearance at Doncaster at start of season, did catch the eye over a trip which stretched him again last time out around here in amateur event. He appeared to be travelling fairly well before rider appeared to stop riding quite dramatically, rider was suspended for 2 days. He was very well backed that day as if better was expected so no surprise to see him go well here again under Sanders handling. 2pt win Mcbirney 7/1 bet365 9.20 Kempton Weak looking affair for the grade. Don Libre has found some level of form over CD recently finishing runner up last twice, handicapper crept him up a 1lb for those efforts. Tongue tie applied tonight and young apprentice takes off a handy 5lb. My main concern is he is all about speed unlikely to get such an easy time in this race and perhaps a drop back to 6f would suit. Jake The Snake is on a dangerous mark some 6lb below his last AW handicap winning mark and has had a good summer on turf winning a handicap and catching the eye again at Goodwood last time out when staying on at the death. Should get a race run to suit and clearly still in good heart. It’s a Mans World just cannot be ignored and could well still be well ahead of the handicapper at present. Won 2 handicaps at Thirsk and a Southwell one inbetween, now 8lb higher from last one and still looked to have plenty more left. Has form on polytrack earlier in career and Ellison yard continue in good form with a good draw here vital. 2pt win It’s a Mans World 4/1 coral 0.5pt win Jake The Snake 16/1 coral

[cpo]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 15th Sept. 5.05 Doncaster Daddy Warbucks 2pts win @ 9/1 Bet365 This horse isn't well drawn for one who races prominently but there is still every chance he could get close to the front from his draw of 7. He has been in great form so far this season and although he only finished 5th last time out, there is every chance there could be more improvement to come over this longer trip. Some his best efforts have come over a mile this year and he looks like he could handle an extra 2f. Dandy Nicholls continues in good form so I fancy this horse to bounce back from a poor effort over 7f last time out. Pat Cosgrave takes the ride which is a positive. I was told that connections felt he was still 4 or 5lbs ahead of the handicapper last time out but was probably undone by the trip. He has been dropped 1lb since that run so if they are right and he is still well in, then he could run a good race here.