Evertonboy Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Hi I have recently compiled a spreadsheet that attempts to project the total points and finishing position of teams in the 4 English leagues. The basic theory is as follows: 1. Each team has been assigned a strike rate based on last seasons form and this, this changes on a game to game basis as more games are played 2. I use this strike rate to determine the % of points that all teams can be expected to pick up from their remaining games 3. I combine this projected points gained in their remaining matches to their current total points gained and come up with a final points projection and finishing positon. A few points to note: 1. This is in its infancy and is open to improvements 2. The strike rate for promoted/ relegated teams will remain fixed (based on theories by Kevin Pullein in his book) 3. At the moment the final points projection for all teams is slightly higher than you would expect. I am hopeful that as the season progresses the final totals will gradually reduce and come into line. As such, i would use the finishing positions as a guide and place no bets based on points totals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ONEDUNME Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Re: Football Projections Hi Jamie. Are you going to make your bets placed solely on your statistics or are you going to inject some common sense here and there? For instance, Forest are likely to defy last year's stats altogether and finish nearer to fourth from top than fourth from bottom based on the amount of money they've spent and their start to the season. I understand that your table will morph as the season unwinds but I assume you're going to vet all the data that you have before placing your bets. On the other hand, Villa looks to be a good bet for relegation and waiting for more games could see the price contract, so I suppose you have to make a decision whether to stick or twist at some stage. Have you actually placed any bets on your early stage predictions? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evertonboy Posted August 28, 2012 Author Share Posted August 28, 2012 Re: Football Projections I've not done anything as yet; theres a few teams who i'll probably steer clear off until more of the season as elapsed - such as Forest and Pompey (although their s/r will remain the same) I'll probably look to get involved after the international break Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ONEDUNME Posted August 28, 2012 Share Posted August 28, 2012 Re: Football Projections OK. I'll try to remember to keep an eye out for your updates. On the subject of relegation markets, have the bookies ever been stingier than this year? Half the premiership at 5/1 or less to be relegated? That's garbage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evertonboy Posted March 15, 2013 Author Share Posted March 15, 2013 Re: Football Projections An update... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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