BBOTD Saturday 25th August

[Bathtime For Rupert]

2.30 York - 1pt win Mysterious Man @ 20/1 (Bet365) Posted this before his intended run at Sandown recently:

2.30 Sandown - 3pts win Mysterious Man @ 15/2 (Hills) Very competitive race to get stuck into but I really like the chances of Andrew Balding's runner who got off the mark last time out and should relish the step up to 1m6f. There is some stamina in his pedigree and the way he's been finishing his races in maidens suggest he can improve further for this distance. Plenty of his maiden form is rock solid - 4th to Thomas Chippendale and then 2nd to Estimate (both Royal Ascot winners). He holds New Youmzain on that most recent form and then the step back to 10f wouldn't have been ideal next time out. Was no match for the winner but the race worked out nicely and he kept on well to finish 2nd in the end. The 3rd is an 85 horse, the 4th 88 and the 5th 80 so on that evidence my selection's mark of 83 doesn't look beyond him and he's got off the mark since then. There were a few solid yardsticks in the field when staying on strongly under pressure to forge to a 2 1/4l success at Bath last time out and I just think he's going to enjoy the extra 2f on offer today. His form is rock solid and it's hard to see him not running another big race.

Didn't run in the end but the comments apply again for his run here with the 1m6f trip looking like it'll improve him again having been seeing his races out well over shorter. Although Timeform believe his mark is high, I'm personally not so sure with his form working out nicely and factoring in the anticipated improvement for the distance. As mentioned, winners have come out of his races and that includes his win at Bath last time. The 3rd horse was Mawaqeet (beaten 3 1/4l) who subsequently won a maiden and then was a slightly unfortunate 2nd at Glorious Goodwood off a mark of 87. Like I say, I don't believe 83 is too harsh on Andrew Balding's colt and Estimate backed up her win at Ascot with a subsequent 3rd at Goodwood to get a rating of 110. My selection's 2 3/4l defeat giving 5lbs doesn't look bad now and is another piece of rock solid form. He handles give in the ground so rain won't inconvenience and his draw in stall 7 isn't bad. The yard are working at a 17% strike rate this month from a lot of runners so that's no issue either and I just think he's been overlooked in here.

[Lodge]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 25th August 2.30 - York - Monshak @ 11/1 Bet365 With more rain forecast tonight and the ground already looking abit softer today than a few people imagined i'm going to stick to horses proven on this ground. Sir Micheal Stoute's runner Monshak has had 3 starts to date, all of which have been on soft/heavy ground. She ran subsequent Irish Oaks winner Great Heavens to 3L on debut at Yarmouth over 11f. She then went on to win his next 2 starts when upped in trip to 12 and 14f respectively, winning as if she had slightly more in hand on both occasions. Runs off 87, 6lb higher than that latest win which looks fair, especially as she is slightly less exposed than most in this. Has underrated jockey onboard in Graham Lee and no reason why she won't go close in my opinion particularly if the ground gets even softer. First time visor applied also.