Why punters lose heavily on Betfair

[anaconda69]

Re: Why punters lose heavily on Betfair Use smarkets and get 2-3%commission sorted or get ur bets right. Over time just coz a bet is 1.05 or 20-1 U ain't going to win exactly 20 from 21 1.05s or 1 22-1 from 20 bets over value 20-1s. Don't really understand how you mean. Do some arbing and make money that way.

[A Woods]

Re: Why punters lose heavily on Betfair Whilst I agree with much of what you've said, you are patently wrong with this statement: "There's no way you can withstand those compounded commissions on regular bets for any length of time." Plenty of people do. I and many others are even winning with the PC and PC2. Its tough but it can be done.

[MPLouis]

Re: Why punters lose heavily on Betfair

you are free to make 250.000 GBP profit before becoming eligible for PC' date=' and [b']I highly doubt any of high street bookmakers would allow you to take that amount off them before restricting your account!

:rollin

[Mulkis]

Re: Why punters lose heavily on Betfair

I really don't have a clue what the hell you are talking about!

Right! Complete nonsense!

[Datapunter]

Re: Why punters lose heavily on Betfair

nobody on BF is going to offer odds that are true odds so if there's a back button on there with say odds of 11 close to the start of the event you can be pretty sure that the true odds are at least 1 increment over that figure

You do not understand the concept of "true odds" nor the concept of "value betting" which is why your whole reasoning is nonsensical. You do not, and never will, know what the 'true odds' on a selection are therefore you have no idea if you have positive or negative value, including commission. You can only know if your betting is profitable by examining your long term record and getting confirmation that on average you make a profit. (or not) You cannot determine that in any way based on the individual bets.

[buntyketti]

Re: Why punters lose heavily on Betfair I completely agrees , even with my limited knowledge i found this "Coin toss" and "value" essay totally non sense.

[betting101]

Re: Why punters lose heavily on Betfair The fact is that...most of the time betfair offers poor back/odds Back odds too, low or lay odds to high Plus they charge commission and premium charges.....their goal is not to let you win and just use them as an entertainment you pay for

[Kolo]

Re: Why punters lose heavily on Betfair

You do not understand the concept of "true odds" nor the concept of "value betting" which is why your whole reasoning is nonsensical. You do not, and never will, know what the 'true odds' on a selection are therefore you have no idea if you have positive or negative value, including commission. You can only know if your betting is profitable by examining your long term record and getting confirmation that on average you make a profit. (or not) You cannot determine that in any way based on the individual bets.

This isn't true at all in liquid and efficient markets

[Datapunter]

Re: Why punters lose heavily on Betfair

This isn't true at all in liquid and efficient markets

Why ?

[slapdash]

Re: Why punters lose heavily on Betfair

This isn't true at all in liquid and efficient markets

No. It's not true in markets which you know to be liquid and efficient. But in practice there are no such markets, so Datapunter is correct.

[betting101]

Re: Why punters lose heavily on Betfair But there are ways to estimate approximate value, but you will never get the true value...too random

[Kolo]

Re: Why punters lose heavily on Betfair

No. It's not true in markets which you know to be liquid and efficient. But in practice there are no such markets' date= so Datapunter is correct.

I think it is prudent to assume the large markets are efficient

[Datapunter]

Re: Why punters lose heavily on Betfair

I think it is prudent to assume the large markets are efficient

Thanks.

[Kolo]

Re: Why punters lose heavily on Betfair ??

[Datapunter]

Re: Why punters lose heavily on Betfair Either you state something to be true, or you assume something to be true. There is a world of difference.

[Kolo]

Re: Why punters lose heavily on Betfair So you think large markets are inefficient?

[Datapunter]

Re: Why punters lose heavily on Betfair Define efficient ?

[betting101]

Re: Why punters lose heavily on Betfair

One does not have to use API; as for premium charge, you are free to make 250.000 GBP profit before becoming eligible for PC, and I highly doubt any of high street bookmakers would allow you to take that amount off them before restricting your account!

The Betfair preium charge, does it only apply if you make more than 250.000 GBP per year? Or the amount made since you opened the account?

[Kolo]

Re: Why punters lose heavily on Betfair

Define efficient ?

informationally efficient

[Sand87]

Re: Why punters lose heavily on Betfair

Literally the only way you're not going to lose your shirt in BF is by getting people to take bad odds from you and then you getting better odds from someone else.

You know, there's a bot that was introduced to many of the football side markets about 3 months ago that operates like this. At first I thought it was offering odds just below or above value as some sort of commission reduction. Then I thought it was arbs but discounted that due to the consistency and volume it matches. Finally I figured out but before I let on how it works I'll see if anyone can take a guess with an example: Lets say Half Time Score market has £30,000 matched in it. First Half Goals has £500. It's fair to say that the HT price for 0-0,1-0,0-1 should be the price for Under 1.5 Goals First Half. 0-0 = 2.72 1-0 = 4.9 0-1 = 6.6 So Under 1.5 HT should be the sum of those odds which is 1.383 You need to factor in commission so lets say you get matched @ 1.40 The bot takes your back. A few minutes later it lays an amount @ either 1.40 or higher. Tell me how that works ;)

[Sand87]

Re: Why punters lose heavily on Betfair p.s that is a real example. If you want to test it yourself go to any first half goal market with a little bit of indecision i.e not close to 100%. You'll see what I mean. And that's just one market.

[froment]

Re: Why punters lose heavily on Betfair

The Betfair preium charge' date=' does it only apply if you make more than 250.000 GBP per year? Or the amount made since you opened the account?[/quote'] The later case, amount made since you opened the account; but that apply only to Premium Charge 2, the higher one, not the "old", lower one. www.betfair.com/aboutUs/Betfair.Charges/ Premium Charge Summary You will only be considered for the Premium Charge if, over the lifetime of your account, you satisfy the following criteria: - Your account is in profit; - Your total charges generated are less than 20%† of gross profits; and - You bet in more than 250 markets. Two further conditions reduce the likelihood that you will be required to pay the Premium Charge: - Any single win that constitutes more than 50% of your gross profits over the lifetime of your account will be excluded from the calculation; and - Each customer will have a lifetime allowance of £1,000 against the Premium Charge. Premium Charges at higher rates Higher rates of Premium Charge will apply to the very small number of customers (less than 0.1%) that satisfy the following conditions over the lifetime of their account: - Lifetime net profits exceed £250,000 - Commission generated less than 40% of lifetime gross profits - Bet in more than 1,000 markets

[Datapunter]

Re: Why punters lose heavily on Betfair

You do not understand the concept of "true odds" nor the concept of "value betting" which is why your whole reasoning is nonsensical. You do not, and never will, know what the 'true odds' on a selection are therefore you have no idea if you have positive or negative value, including commission. You can only know if your betting is profitable by examining your long term record and getting confirmation that on average you make a profit. (or not) You cannot determine that in any way based on the individual bets.

This isn't true at all in liquid and efficient markets

I think it is prudent to assume the large markets are efficient

Still no idea what you mean with efficient, i'll assume you mean accurate. First of all there's little difference between Betfair markets and bookmaker markets. What is the basis for the prices offered by bookmakers ? Actually it is exactly the same as the markets on Betfair. Bookmakers prices are determined first by the expected betting from the general public, which can to some extent be predicted. Then it is determined by the money actually being bet. The prices you see close to kick-off at a bookmaker are the result of millions of people placing bets. Exactly the same as Betfair. A point to note here is that the bookmaker does not need to be accurate with his prediction. He will apply an overround to the prices which means he only needs to be accurate up to 10%-20%, after that the money starts talking. Does he actually care about the "true odds" ? No, not at all. He cares about getting money placed on all selections relative to the offered odds so the total volume is spread evenly over the entire market. Adjusting the odds to attrack more money there where he's short or has too much volume. In essence what he does is arbitrage, but with the % on his side. This is called "bookmaking". And it is here where the bookmaker makes his money, by making the most of his overround. In an extreme case a bookmaker may offer odds on a selection knowing he's giving away value. The market is the flip of a coin, 50/50, bookmaker ofer 1.90 heads and 1.90 tails. Someone comes along and bets 1 million on heads. The bookmaker may offer 2.05 on tails to attract more bets on that side to offset the million on heads. It makes perfect sense to him as it is a way of balancing his risk while still making a profit overall. As a punter there is profit to be made by betting on 2.05, if you can find the opportunity. The very same happens on Betfair markets. Loads of people place bets and thus the markets form to the odds at some point in time. Pretty much the same as with the bookmakers. Do these odds reflect the true odds ? No, not at all. They reflect how the general public predicts the event to unfold, i.e. the most likely selection to win. Does that mean they are right ? Maybe they are, maybe not. You will never know as you simply don't know the true odds. Value can still exist even in the most liquid markets. Odds exist at a moment in time based on the info available to the public at that time and the amount bet so far. This changes over time so odds shift. "Value" can be found if you can estimate the most likely outcome more accurate than the general public. A point to note is that bookmakers are also active on betfair and participate in the forming of the markets. What are you going to do when you are exposed on one selection and have no money coming in on the other selections ? You offset the risk by betting yourself on betfair, thus you influence the market. Since it is your intention to offset your risk rather that bet to win you may need to offer odds better than what they should be in order to get matched. Value is born. So now back to the first quote. Yes, on average Betfair markets are fairly accurate. A selection available at odds of 2.00 will on average win 50 % of the time. But it says nothing about the individual selections, that can have true odds of anything from 1.80 to 2.20. All you know is that on average it levels out at 50%. After all if one selection is 45% and the next is 55% together they level out at 50%. So value can and does exist. But it is hard to find. If you number crunch Betfair market data you'll find that the markets are efficient. Odds of 2.00 will on average win 50% of the time. If you examine odds between 1.95 and 2.05 you come to the same conclusion, same with a lot of other odds bands. So odds of 2.00 reflect 45% to 55% and only on a rare occasion with the actual % be higher or lower. The thing to remember here is that on most markets there is no value to be had as the difference between the odds offered and the true odds is not even sufficient to cover the 5% commission. This is probably the mistake that most value bettors make, to place too many bets where little or no value actually exists. Leaves a small number of occasions where value does exist, above 5%, you just need to find it. And that can only be confirmed after having a profit over an extensive period of time and number of bets.

[Kolo]

Re: Why punters lose heavily on Betfair

Still no idea what you mean with efficient, i'll assume you mean accurate. First of all there's little difference between Betfair markets and bookmaker markets. What is the basis for the prices offered by bookmakers ? Actually it is exactly the same as the markets on Betfair. Bookmakers prices are determined first by the expected betting from the general public, which can to some extent be predicted. Then it is determined by the money actually being bet. The prices you see close to kick-off at a bookmaker are the result of millions of people placing bets. Exactly the same as Betfair. A point to note here is that the bookmaker does not need to be accurate with his prediction. He will apply an overround to the prices which means he only needs to be accurate up to 10%-20%, after that the money starts talking. Does he actually care about the "true odds" ? No, not at all. He cares about getting money placed on all selections relative to the offered odds so the total volume is spread evenly over the entire market. Adjusting the odds to attrack more money there where he's short or has too much volume. In essence what he does is arbitrage, but with the % on his side. This is called "bookmaking". And it is here where the bookmaker makes his money, by making the most of his overround. In an extreme case a bookmaker may offer odds on a selection knowing he's giving away value. The market is the flip of a coin, 50/50, bookmaker ofer 1.90 heads and 1.90 tails. Someone comes along and bets 1 million on heads. The bookmaker may offer 2.05 on tails to attract more bets on that side to offset the million on heads. It makes perfect sense to him as it is a way of balancing his risk while still making a profit overall. As a punter there is profit to be made by betting on 2.05, if you can find the opportunity. The very same happens on Betfair markets. Loads of people place bets and thus the markets form to the odds at some point in time. Pretty much the same as with the bookmakers. Do these odds reflect the true odds ? No, not at all. They reflect how the general public predicts the event to unfold, i.e. the most likely selection to win. Does that mean they are right ? Maybe they are, maybe not. You will never know as you simply don't know the true odds. Value can still exist even in the most liquid markets. Odds exist at a moment in time based on the info available to the public at that time and the amount bet so far. This changes over time so odds shift. "Value" can be found if you can estimate the most likely outcome more accurate than the general public. A point to note is that bookmakers are also active on betfair and participate in the forming of the markets. What are you going to do when you are exposed on one selection and have no money coming in on the other selections ? You offset the risk by betting yourself on betfair, thus you influence the market. Since it is your intention to offset your risk rather that bet to win you may need to offer odds better than what they should be in order to get matched. Value is born. So now back to the first quote. Yes, on average Betfair markets are fairly accurate. A selection available at odds of 2.00 will on average win 50 % of the time. But it says nothing about the individual selections, that can have true odds of anything from 1.80 to 2.20. All you know is that on average it levels out at 50%. After all if one selection is 45% and the next is 55% together they level out at 50%. So value can and does exist. But it is hard to find. If you number crunch Betfair market data you'll find that the markets are efficient. Odds of 2.00 will on average win 50% of the time. If you examine odds between 1.95 and 2.05 you come to the same conclusion, same with a lot of other odds bands. So odds of 2.00 reflect 45% to 55% and only on a rare occasion with the actual % be higher or lower. The thing to remember here is that on most markets there is no value to be had as the difference between the odds offered and the true odds is not even sufficient to cover the 5% commission. This is probably the mistake that most value bettors make, to place too many bets where little or no value actually exists. Leaves a small number of occasions where value does exist, above 5%, you just need to find it. And that can only be confirmed after having a profit over an extensive period of time and number of bets.

https://econ.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/siwei-xu_jasmine.pdf

[Datapunter]

Re: Why punters lose heavily on Betfair That's just about the worst "betting forecasting" research i've ever seen. But what is your point exactly ?

[Kolo]

Re: Why punters lose heavily on Betfair That the number you bet at vs the no vig closing line is much more efficient for predicting future success than win/loss record is

[The Saint]

That the number you bet at vs the no vig closing line is much more efficient for predicting future success than win/loss record is

Without reading the 'research', I would be inclined to agree - from a horse-racing perspective anyway. It's proven that BSP is the best indicator of a horses chance. Can't comment in football - suspect this is more to do with market forces but id be guessing!

[Datapunter]

Re: Why punters lose heavily on Betfair Kolo, You've lost me completely now, good luck with your betting.

[Datapunter]

Re: Why punters lose heavily on Betfair

It's proven that BSP is the best indicator of a horses chance.

Great, so all horses that start at odds of evens win 50% of the time. Now there's a horse called "Iveabigone" racing tomorrow, the odds on offer are.... 2.00 does that mean THAT horse in THAT race has a 50% chance of winning ?

[Kolo]

Re: Why punters lose heavily on Betfair Nice sample size