The Effect of the Draw

[Chaostheorie]

I hope to here some opinions from you. Are the draw biases on the UK-courses so influential as they used to be? Is it worth the time to produce draw statistics in times where every course has modern watering systems and clerks that watch that no bias occurs? Or is the draw more influential in handicaps where the weights give the runners theoretically the same chance? Or maybe in sprint trips? What do you think about this topic?

[santos_]

Re: The Effect of the Draw Depends really on the course but there are a few tracks where I really look at the draw. Chester has to be up there at number one a poor draw and you can pretty much forget it. I also think Kempton on the AW you don't want to be drawn high in the sprints there puts me right off.

[Cowan]

Re: The Effect of the Draw I keep draw figures for sprint distances at all courses. There are definitely some courses with obvious biases and it pays to side with them, often the tight tracks are like this. (Catterick, Chester, Epsom, Folkestone, Goodwood, Lingfield, Musselburgh, Thirsk, Warwick, Windsor) Uphill courses favour a certain type of finisher and you often get course specialists at these courses. Like the mountain riders in the 'Tour de France'. (Bath, Beverley, Carlisle, Folkestone, Hamilton, Leicester, Newcastle, Newmarket July, Pontefract, Salisbury, Sandown) Galloping Flat courses suit runners who have a good cruising speed. (Bath through to Ffos Las) So to answer your question yes draw biases still exist but only use those figures on courses whose configuration exacerbates the draw such as the tight courses I mentioned. Trying to use draw figures at other types of course may result in some more even performances than the figures suggest.