Flat Racing ~ Tuesday 31st July ~ Goodwood Day 1

[BillyHills]

2.00 Goodwood: Bet365.com Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) (1m1f192y) Tremendous race to kick off the meeting and I’m sure the Cumani duo will have plenty of supporters. On this occasion I like the top weight Retrieve, I think he has a bit of class and is about to strike and he will appreciate this drop in grade and a good end to end gallop. Cai Shen is interesting on better ground for the Hannon yard and two at bigger prices of interest would be Nanton and Licence To Till. Selections: 2pts Retrieve 12/1 Bet365 1pt Cia Shen 7/1 Blue Square Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/goodwood-betting-retrieve-to-get-godolphin-off-to-winning-start-at-glorious-goodwood

[beaker1]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Tuesday 31st July ~ Goodwood Day 1 my thoughts and bets for day 1 of the goodwood festival july 31st 2.00 bet365.com Stakes (Handicap) SPANISH DUKE can provide a much need big race success for the John Dunlop team; he competes here off a mark of 96, just 1lb more than on his last success. His last two runs have been over 1m 4f, but he seems better suited to the 1m 2f trip he tackles here. A quirky individual, he can often race too keenly which has hampered his chances in previous races. If things go to plan and he settles better he is more than capable of improving his 13th place in this race last year, especially as he was rated 7lb higher that day and was hampered 3 furlongs from home. Landaman could prove the chief danger for the masterful Goodwood trainer Mark Johnston, having won his last two starts, both at Beverley, in convincing fashion. Although he is 9lb higher in the weights today, Darren Egan takes off a valuable 5lb. The same rider/trainer combination teamed up to good effect at the weekend with Scatter Dice, so the same tactic could prove very shrewd once more. Sir Henry Cecil’s Specific Gravity could also be of interest after being gelded. It appeals to me that a trainer such as Sir Henry has kept faith with this son of Dansili, despite a few disappointing efforts in more competitive races. Arguably his best form came when he was 4th in a Group 3 at Ascot behind Pisco Sour. It would be a little bit of a gamble to back this horse but he is certainly one of the more intriguing runners on the card. The final horse to make the shortlist is Godolphin’s apparent second string runner, Start Right, who has previously won a 19-runner handicap at Goodwood. He ran consistently over the winter in Dubai and was given a nice introduction to the season at Newmarket to put him right for this, so as long as the winter campaign hasn’t taken too much out of him a big run could be on the cards. 2.35 bet365 Gordon Stakes (Group 3) The Gordon Stakes is a race widely contested by promising 3yo staying types who have aspirations to capture the final Classic of the season. Conduit was the last horse to win at Goodwood before going on to win at Doncaster, and St Leger entrants Michelangelo, Noble Mission, Encke and Minimise Risk will all be looking to emulate this feat. It is becoming a regular theme this season, but once again it seems that John Gosden holds all the aces in this contest, courtesy of MICHELANGELO, the clear third favourite for the St Leger at 10/1. William Buick will once again be on board this son of Galileo (who cost connections 550,000 guineas); victory is a requisite should they have serious hopes of going on to bigger and better things. He is definitely my pick for the race after impressing in each of his three runs to date. Thrown in at the deep end on his debut when pitted against today’s rival Noble Mission and Godolphin’s Mariner’s Cross, both of whom had racecourse experience on their side, he put in a more than creditable performance to finish just ¾ of a length third behind the pair. That day he struck me as an ideal St Leger candidate; a step up in trip is likely to suit. Following the aforementioned third place, he scrambled home in a 4-runner Listed race over 1m 3f. He then improved again last time out to take a valuable race at Newmarket in cosy fashion, but he now races over 1m 4f for the first time, a trip I believe will bring out vast improvement. He is almost certain to start favourite in a race which has been kind to market leaders, with five of the last six renewals going to the jolly; this strengthens my confidence in the selection and he looks the one to beat. The likely challengers look to be Encke, Noble Mission and Girolamo, with the latter my second preference. He finished third in the German Derby last time out, beaten only ½ a length, which is arguably the best form on offer here. Trained by handler of the Arc and King George heroine Danedream, Starke has shown himself adept at challenging for top prizes across Europe. Officially rated the best horse in the race, Girolamo has to be feared if the travelling doesn’t affect this promising young colt; he is more than capable of making his presence felt in this contest. 3.10 bet365 Lennox Stakes (Group 2) Richard Hannon and Sir Henry Cecil have both saddled the winner of this race in the last two years with Strong Suit (2011) and Lord Shanakill (2010) respectively; this year they both have strong chances in what in all fairness looks a weak renewal of the race. Hannon is represented by Libranno, who was beaten in this race 12 months ago; Cecil runs his tough mare, Chachamaidee, who is currently a strong 7/4 favourite. The market leaders, however, have a poor recent record in this contest, winning only two of the last ten. Sir Henry’s charge probably edges ahead as the form pick in the race, but given her fairly poor record in terms of wins (5-17) I am willing to look elsewhere. This leads me to William Haggas’ Firebeam, a horse who has yet to fulfil his true potential. The pick of his form comes from his run three starts back in a Listed race at Haydock, in which he was beaten by Red Jazz, who was second in this race last year. A lot of his racing has come with cut in the ground, but he did dot up in a York handicap on good ground, so I am intrigued to see how he goes, with Ryan Moore booked, on better ground. Bryan Smart isn’t renowned for training top class horses, but given his resources he is a very useful trainer, proving this when Tangerine Tress won the Group 1 Prix De L’Abbaye last season. He runs the Irish 2000 Guineas runner-up FOXTROT ROMEO, who will receive weight from the entire field as the only 3yo in the line-up, an age group which has dominated in winning 4 of the last 5 renewals. Although he hasn’t won since his debut he has shown solid form. In the St James’ Palace he tired late on over a mile, finishing 4th behind the impressive Most Improved, and as previously mentioned he was the runner-up to Power in the Irish 2000 Guineas. Twice he has tired late on over a mile suggesting he is well worth a crack at this 7f trip, something I believe will see him in a better light, making him very difficult to beat. 3.45 bet365 Molecomb Stakes (Group 3) The Molecomb Stakes is a 5f sprint for 2 year olds which has been won by some smart types such as Monsieur Chevalier, Zebedee and Requinto in recent times. Only the last of the trio wasn’t trained by Richard Hannon, who is represented this year by Lyric Ace and Dominate. Although the former appears to be the stable’s first string on jockey bookings, I slightly prefer the horse Ryan Moore rides. This son of Assertive dotted up on soft ground last time out at Sandown in fine style. I don’t think the good ground they are likely to race on this week will be a problem, giving him a strong each-way shout. Jadanna also makes the shortlist having shown solid from in defeat at both Ascot, where she finished fifth despite racing on the unfavoured part of the course, and then at Newmarket, where she finished third behind Sendmylovetorose in the Cherry Hinton. That was over 6f, which did seem to stretch her, so the drop back to 5f is a definite plus. This, combined with her capabilities on faster ground, should put her right there at the finish. They may all, however, be chasing home Roger Varian’s MORAWIJ, who finished fourth behind Reckless Abandon in the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot. That particular rival has franked the form when winning a Group 2 in France, in which she beat Richard Hannon’s well regarded Sir Prancelot. Varian’s Exceed and Excel colt then scored in convincing fashion in a Sandown Listed race on good ground, suggesting he is definitely on the up; with more progress to come, Morawij could hold all the aces here. 4.15 Casino at bet365 EBF Maiden Stakes This is a really tough open maiden with not a great deal of form to go on; therefore I am sticking with those who have shown something on the racecourse. John Gosden’s season just keeps on getting better so it would be foolish to pass over any of his runners lightly, with BLESSINGTON looking to hold strong claims in this particular contest. He was sixth on his debut at Windsor but that run was far better than the form suggests; he started the race slowly before being hampered severely. Things just didn’t go to plan that day, so given a clear run, as well as breaking on terms, he should be there or thereabouts. Richard Fahey’s Garswood also appears to hold every chance on the back of a solid third in a competitive York maiden. This son of Dutch Art holds a Gimcrack entry, suggesting the horse is held in some regard. One to consider at a slightly bigger price is Prince Regal, who ran disappointingly last time out after a promising debut. I am trusting the drop to 5f last time out wasn’t ideal, so when stepping back up to 6f and encountering real good ground for the first time, he could well outrun his odds. 4.50 Poker at bet365 Stakes (Handicap) Plenty of this field seem fairly exposed with the handicapper appearing to hold the upper hand, however this cannot be said about the unexposed JACOB CATS for the Hannon and Hughes team. He is the only 3 year old in the race, which for me is a positive, especially given three of the last six renewals of this race has been won by this particular age group. He has now won three of his six career starts, including his last two races, so he could not be arriving here in better form. Although carrying a 6lb penalty for his latest success at Sandown six days ago, the manner in which he won was very impressive, suggesting that a prize of this nature is well within his reach. Snow Bay could well be capable of exploiting a mark of 85 if repeating the form shown at Ripon three starts ago. His last two starts can be discounted due to soft ground at York and the slow surface at Southwell. Both of these runs were also over 7f and the return to 1m on good ground should present perfect conditions. Another runner which could well make the frame is Scott Dixon’s Askaud, who finished a credible runner-up last time out at York off this mark. She is a previous course winner off a 2lb lower mark, so cannot be discounted, especially if the blinkers do the trick once more. War Singer occupies the fourth position on my shortlist despite the 1m trip seemingly being a negative. Eddie Ahern rides the horse once again, having finished third over 1m 2f last time on soft ground, tiring in the final furlong. They can often go a frantic pace in these types of races, which may just bring the stamina of this horse in to play and he could well be staying on late to challenge. 5.25 Mobile at bet365 Stakes (Handicap) A 26 runner 5f Handicap to finish the day does not make things easy, therefore it may be worth approaching this race with a fair degree of caution. I will however try to pick out a few of the likely contenders. Falasteen remains 3lb below his last winning mark and is likely to be at home on the forecast ground conditions. The booking of Richard Hughes is an eye-catching one; this, as well as the previous solid performances in big field handicaps, could see him make the shake-up. Perfect Blossom’s recent form has been far from inspiring; she did however win at Goodwood 2 years ago in identical conditions, off the same handicap rating of 84, and therefore everything could well pan out perfectly. Kingsgate Choice is another to consider as he will be racing back on a sounder surface. The soft ground at Newmarket was far from ideal last time out, and having won three times on good to firm ground he might be worth taking a chance on; Tom Queally is booked to ride him for the first time. The horse I am most confident about however, is R WOODY, who has won two from two here at Goodwood. A respectable reappearance on unsuitable soft ground at Newmarket behind Steps last time out should have put the horse spot on for this. His second course win was also off a mark of 89, 4lb lower than his current rating, making him dangerously well handicapped if rediscovering his best form.