Ballistic Disco's Over 2.5s

[ballisticdisco]

Hello I've been doing some research into starting an over 2.5s strategy for the new season. Think I've pretty much figured out a formula, it's based on current form, previous meetings and home/away records. Problem I'm having is highlighting which league/s to use this formula on. The research I've done has been basically calculating on average how many goals are scored each game over the last 3 seasons. Each column shows a month, starting at August through to May. [TABLE=width: 837]

[TR] [TD]Premier League[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2011-2012[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD=align: right]2.48[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.9[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.4[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.87[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.62[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.68[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.09[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.55[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.76[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.83[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2010-2011[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD=align: right]2.87[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.7[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.28[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.08[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.4[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.73[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.05[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.91[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.85[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.09[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]2009-2010 [/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD=align: right]2.47[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.57[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.08[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.15[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.61[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.52[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.27[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.98[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.59[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.77[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]3 season average[/TD] [TD][/TD] [TD=align: right]2.60[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.05[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.92[/TD] [TD=align: right]3.03[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.54[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.64[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.80[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.81[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.73[/TD] [TD=align: right]2.89[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] So as you can see from the research on average over the last 3 seasons every game has had over 2.5 goals. I'm also currently doing this for the Championship, League One, League Two, La Liga, Bundersliga, Ligue 1, Liga 1, SPL, Serie A & Eredivisie. I welcome your thoughts about how to channel this information I've researched. For example each weekend there could be over 100 games. I don't have the time to go through every single game to figure out which game is worth a stake. Does anyone think it's worth only focusing on say 2 or 3 leagues depending on the rest of the research. I'm also thinking about the idea of only betting on certain leagues on certain months, as the goals seem to drop off during December and January within the EPL, I may look into this further. Another option would only pick games that have say for example over 1.8 odds. Your thoughts please ladies and gents and I'll continue with my research.

[froment]

Re: Ballistic Disco's Over 2.5s Hi, Ballistic Disco, nice nickname! :ok Though, as for your strategy, I wouldn't like to discourage you, but IMHO I'm pretty pessimistic about it... :\

So as you can see from the research on average over the last 3 seasons every game has had over 2.5 goals.

While the statement is correct, the problems are: 1. You don't bet on average number of goals throughout the season, you bet on a single match. A single match does not depend much on above statistics; 2. Odds reflect probability of each match to go over or under, so overall seasonal stats also do not help you to choose which match to bet on... Let me sum up my thoughts: in my opinion, unfortunatelly, overall stats above are not of any help for picking the match - you have to go through every single match and explore the stats (and other factors if you wish - injuries, etc.) to find out if the match is worth betting on or not.

I don't have the time to go through every single game to figure out which game is worth a stake. ................. Another option would only pick games that have say for example over 1.8 odds.

There must be the reason why odds are higher than 1.8, so blindly picking those matches will see you bankrupt. Premier league last season saw 2.81 average goals per match, so odds of 1.80 for over 2.5 can be considered as reasonable (in fact, Poisson says that fair odds of over 2.5 with goal expectancy of 2.81 are 1.88); however, let's say, France 1 last season saw average of 2.51 goals per match, hardly above 2.5, so would you accept odds of 1.80 there? Of course not, you would need to look for at least 2.20 there; thus, odds set by bookie cannot be used as real measure whether your bet will be profitable or not - you have to find out whether odds offered by bookie are good enough to bet on (professional punters say "whether they are a value"), and you can do it only by researching every single match.