Flat Racing ~ Saturday 14th July

[BillyHills]

3.20 Newmarket: Darley July Cup (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (6f) It’s an intriguing contest and the softening ground just adds even more doubts into the mix for one or two runners. Favourite Bated Breath will have plenty of supporters but it does look an open race and I wouldn’t want to be taking too short a price about anything. I do like Society Rock but he’s another infrequent winner and at around 5/1 is a bit skinny. I think The Cheka is too big at 33/1 and might be worth a small each way bet while the Aussie horse Ortensia looks sure to go well under Buick. Selections; 1pt EW The Cheka 33/1 Bet365 1pt EW Ortensia 9/1 Boylesports Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/newmarket-betting--ortensia-to-upset-the-home-contingent-in-july-cup-at-newmarket

[beaker1]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 14th July 3:00 York – 53rd John Smith’s Cup It is 39 years and counting since a horse aged six or older won the John Smith’s Cup and if that wasn’t enough very few actually make the frame. Despite one minor blip in 2010 when the six-year-olds Kings Gambit, Demolition and Hillview Boy finished 2nd, 3rd and 4th overall the older horses have generally struggled to land a blow and therefore we should be able to reduce the 20 runners to a more manageable 15. Green Destiny’s victory last season reconfirmed that four-year-olds have the by far the best record in terms of win and placed efforts although to be fair they have been responsible for the greatest number of runners. To hammer their point home, four-year-olds filled the first four places in 2004 and 2007 and provided the first three home in 2009. Seven four-year-olds are set to face the starter on Saturday. There is very little to separate three-year-olds or five-year-olds in terms of winners although the youngsters tend to have far fewer runners – in fact none go to post this year. Every winner in the last decade had been officially rated at least 91. Historically, this would have been a useful tool as the last 72 runners officially rated 90 or lower had all tasted defeat. However, with the quality of the John Smith’s Cup getting better by the year, very few horses rated less than that benchmark actually run in the race – in fact only one, Tameen is rated less than 91 this year. The trends surrounding the draw in the John Smith’s Cup are pretty inconclusive so no runner should be discounted solely on account of their draw. However, if push comes to shove it may be worth siding with a horse from a middle to high draw as only two of the last 12 winners did so from stall 7 or lower. The John Smith’s Cup has been a good race in recent seasons for horses coming into the race in good form as nine of the last 11 winners had already won at least once earlier in the season. The only exceptions were Far Lane, who had run well to finish 3rd in a competitive York Handicap on his only start of the season and Mullins Bay who had improved with each run prior to his victory here having previously suffering a narrow defeat when runner up in the Listed Wolferton Stakes at Royal Ascot at York. Aidan O’Brien’s runner confirmed his victory was no fluke when winning the Group 3 Strensall Stakes, again here on the Knavesmire, the following month. Therefore, there is strong evidence to oppose all those that are yet to record a victory this season with the exception of those that ran encouraging races in defeat. Nine of the last 11 winners had achieved a top-four finish on their most recent start which backs up the view that it is the form horses coming into the race that have tended to hold the upper hand. In fact, four of those nine, Foreign Affairs, Arcalis, Flying Clarets and Sirvino had been last time out winners whilst Mullins Bay and Fairmile had both been runners-up. In general, trainers based in Yorkshire have not had a lot of success in recent seasons in the JohnSmith’s Cup, with the sole exception of Richard Fahey who has been flying the flag for the white rose county by winning the race three times in the last ten years. Victories for Vintage Premium, Charlie Tokyo and Flying Clarets are joined by the 2005 runner up Realism in addition to Albaqaa and Demolition who both finished 3rd. He is represented by two runners on Saturday. David Barron sent out the 2009 winner, Sirvino but he is without a runner this season. There have only been two winning favourites in the last ten years but an average winning starting price of a little under 11-1 does tell us that it is the more fancied runners that tend to prevail. However, with 20-1 winners in both 2002 and 2004 and a 16/1 winner in 2009 it isn’t totally unheard of for an un-fancied runner to land the spoils. Shortlist Stand To Reason Mijhaar Area Fifty One Kirthill Conclusion The 2012 renewal of the John Smith’s Cup looks a typically competitive contest. Mijhaar currently sits at the head of the betting following his narrow defeat by the classy Gatewood in the Wolferton Handicap at Royal Ascot. If he can build on that in a first-time hood, he should take all the beating although it remains to be seen quite how hard a race he had. Area Fifty One won well at Newmarket last month and could go close as long as he isn’t inconvenienced by the soft ground whilst Luca Cumani expects the soft ground to suit his runner Kirthill. But it might be worth taking a chance on STAND TO REASON who is at his very best on soft ground. He has run well on his last couple of starts before not really staying a mile and a half in the Duke Of Edinburgh handicap last time. Back over a trip and on ground that suits he could reward each-way support at his current odds of around 20-1. 3:20 Newmarket – Darley July Cup (Gr1) Three-year-olds were the dominant force in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s but although their record hasn’t been quite as strong in recent seasons, Dream Ahead’s victory last year re-confirms that they are a force to be reckoned with. The Irish-raiders Reply and Fire Lily are the only two representatives from the ‘Classic’ generation on Saturady so it will be interesting to see if they can live up to expectations. Four-year-olds have also won their fair share down the years, including two of the last three renewals thanks to Fleeting Spirit and Starspangledbanner and so Krypton Factor, Libranno, Mayson, Sirius Prospect, Sepoy and Strong Suit also warrant careful consideration. Five-year-olds didn’t have the greatest of records in the Darley July Cup, winning it only three times between 1968 and 1999, but since then they have chalked up another four victories courtesy of Agnes World, Continent, Frizzante and Marchand D’or. The well-fancied Bated Breath and Society Rock represent that age group on Saturday. On a negative front all runners aged six or above really ought to be opposed as aside from the 2006 Les Arcs it is over 60 years since one of the older generations graced the Winners’ Enclosure – not great reading if Genki, Ortensia, Hawkeyethenoo, Dandy Boy or The Cheka were your main fancy. The Darley July Cup’s place in the racing calendar means that it is the natural progression for those horses which contested the big sprints at Royal Ascot. Overall, 10 of the last 11 winners had previously run at the Royal Meeting, the only exception being the unexposed Sakhee’s Secret. Despite the fact that the King’s Stand Stakes is run over a furlong shorter than Saturday’s trip, it is a race that has provided five recent Darley July Cup winners although it isn’t the winner that we should be concentrating on – Pivotal, Bolshoi, Mitcham, Cassandra Go, Choisir, Takeover Target and Scenic Blast all came up short when attempting to land the big race double. It is the placed horses which have supplied four of those five winners, Les Arcs who was 11th the only one to let the side down. This trend does prove a very strong pointer to Bated Breath who finished runner-up in this year’s renewal and possibly Ortensia who was 9th. Renamed the Diamond Jubilee Stakes in 2012, having been know as the Golden Jubilee Stakes and the Cork & Orrery Stakes prior to that, the 6f Group 1 has also supplied it’s fair share of Darley July Cup winners. Starspangledbanner, Aidan O’Brien’s Aussie import, joined Les Arcs by completing the big-race double but those two would appear to be the exemption rather than the norm as the previous six Diamond Jubilee winners to have lined up here were all beaten. Black Caviar was the eventful winner of this year’s renewal but the race is represented by Society Rock (5th), Krypton Factor (6th), Sirius Prospect (7th), Genki (11th) and The Cheka (12th). The victories of Pastoral Pursuits and Sakhee’s Secret give Hughie Morrison a two from two record in the Darley July Cup but sadly he is without a runner this afternoon as is Sir Michael Stoute who has won the race three times courtesy of Marwell, Green Desert and Ajdal. Aidan O’Brien is therefore the leading trainer with a runner this year so it will be very interesting to see how his Irish 2000 Guineas third, Reply performs as he drops down in trip. Richard Hannon won the Darley July Cup in 1992 with Mr Brooks but he has been out of luck since then. However, he runs Strong Suit and Libranno to try and chalk up that illusive second winner. James Fanshawe won this race in 2004 with Frizzante and he will be hopeful of a big run from Society Rock after he finished only two lengths behind Black Caviar at Royal Ascot. Dream Ahead joined quite a unique club when winning the Darley July Cup last year as he became only the 6th winner in the past 24 years that had previously won at Group 1 level. Therefore, whilst it would be foolish to discount the previous Group 1 winners such as Krypton Factor, Sepoy, Society Rock and Ortensia on this trend alone, we shouldn’t be put off an up and coming sprinter who is, as yet, unproven at this level. Horses coming into the race on the back of rock-solid recent efforts have tended to hold the upper hand over the past decade. Three had been last time out winners; one runner-up and two had finished third. Continent and Marchand D’Or had both run sound races in defeat in the Golden Jubilee. It is also harsh to criticise Pastoral Pursuits or Dream Ahead as both had run admirably in defeat over a mile in the Queen Anne and St James’s Palace Stakes respectively. Compton Place provided the last real shock in the July Cup when winning odds at 50/1 in 1997. But overall it has usually paid to side with the more fancied runners as eight of the last ten winners had come from the first five in the betting which is supported by an average winning starting price of a shade over 9/1. At the time of writing Bated Breath heads the betting closely followed by Society Rock, Ortensia, Strong Suit, Sepoy and Dandy Boy. Shortlist Sepoy Bated Breath Society Rock Strong Suit Conclusion Bated Breath would seem to tick most of the right boxes and couldn’t be arriving here in better form having been narrowly beaten in the King’s Stand Stakes. However, before reaching for your cheque book, it does need pointing out that all of his best form has come on a much faster surface than he is likely to encounter this afternoon. He certainly has the class to win but does he have the ground? The soft conditions are less of a concern for Society Rock who won the 2011 Diamond Jubilee Stakes under similar conditions and ran another encouraging race in this year’s renewal. Strong Suit trailed in Frankel’s wake at Royal Ascot and it is interesting that Richard Hannon has decided to drop him down from a mile to 6f on Saturday. On a sound surface he would have to be given a chance. But at a bigger price SEPOY earns top-spot on the shortlist. He was one of the best sprinters in Australia last season winning nine of his ten starts, which included four Group 1s. Just as important is the fact that the majority of those nine victories came on good to soft or soft ground so he will not be inconvenienced in the slightest on Saturday. If he can recapture the very best of his Australian form he could prove decent value at 12/1. At even bigger prices Sirius Prospect and Reply could both have place claims on the very best of their form from last season. 3:50 Newbury – Weatherbys Super Sprint The 25 runner Weatherbys sponsored Super Sprint does look a bit of a minefield at first glance but there are some decent trends which should be able to narrow the runners down. At the time of writing there hasn’t been any markets form so I am writing this peice slightly blind but make sure that you check the betting, when it is available, before pinning your hopes to any one selection in particular. This important as 10 of the last 13 winners came from the first 5 in the betting so it would make sense to concentrate on that group. To instantly reduce the field we can discount maidens as only 1 winner in the races history had been a maiden. Therefore, Top Boy, Ceelo, Royal Aspiration, Shahdaroba, Ouzinkie, Marvelino, The Black Jacobian, Palladius, Red Star Lady and Vestibule all get an early bath. Equally, we can also look to oppose those runners carrying in excess of 9st as only 1 winner in the races history has carried more than 9st to victory – so Bungle Inthejungle also misses out. When it comes to recent form, it is hardly surprising that the Royal Meeting has been a pretty big influence with 9 of the last 13 winners running at Royal Ascot. A few of the more notable Royal Ascot runners in this year’s line up are Hototo who won the Windsor Castle with Liber 7th, Pay Freeze 9th and Lyric Ace 15th whilst Satsuma finished 7th in the Queen Mary with Madam Mojito 9th. The last two horses mentioned are both fillies and this brings me on nicely to the next trend. 7 of the last 13 renewals of the Super Sprint have been won by fillies so in addition to those two, Woodland Mill, Rhagori Aur, Body And Soul and Momalorka warrant close scrutiny. The reason for this is because fillies’ automatically receive a 5lb allowance from their male rivals but as weights in this contest are governed by each animal’s price at the sales, they can also receive a fair bit more than that as, in general, fillies tend to go through the ring at a lower price. Richard Hannon is unsurprisingly the man to follow here having trained 4 of the last 9 Super Sprint winners. But surprisingly, he only runs 2 on Saturday with his main thoughts clearly elsewhere. Kevin Ryan also saddles a couple of runners and whilst he is yet to saddle the winner of the race, he has had a few finish in the minor placings including 28-1 shot Nagham who finished 3rd last year. Richard Fahey saddles 3 but he has the worst record of the three. The draw has proved pretty important down the years as 8 of the last 12 winners had been drawn in the 5 stalls closest to either rail. Some of the more notable runners this year that appear to be well drawn include Liber, Lyric Ace, Rhagori Aur, Madam Mojito, Satsuma and Body And Soul. Finally, if you are still struggling to narrow it down to a final selection you might want to pick one that races up with the pace as 10 of the last 12 winners had made all or raced prominently. Shortlist Lyric Ace Body And Soul Liber (Hototo) Conclusion Hototo was an impressive winner of the Windsor Castle but his form goes further back than that as he also finished runner-up to Cay Verde on soft ground at Ascot and Mick Channon’s runner franked the form by winning a Listed race at the Curragh next time and running well in defeat in the Norfolk. Kevin Ryan’s runner has to therefore be one for the shortlist but his central draw means that he does not earn top spot. That honour lies with LYRIC ACE who on the form book has just over 8L to make up. He was the stables number one string in the Windsor Castle having won his previous two starts at Leicester and Kempton beating subsequent winners both times. I thought he showed up well through the early stages but something looked amiss as he faded rapidly with just over a furlong to run. As ever, Richard Hughes wasn’t hard on him once his chance had gone and so he should be fresher than those that had a hard race. He is drawn well if the far side provides the quicker ground and there might be a little bit of value to be had with a Hannon runner. Liber finished in front of him at Ascot running a good race in his own right. Having finished a decent 3rd in the Woodcote when he didn’t quite get home, he showed plenty of speed at Ascot before sticking on well in 7th. He will need to improve again on Saturday to figure but his breeding suggests that he should with more experience under his belt. If the near side proves the place to be Body And Soul could be the one to benefit after winning well on her last couple of starts. After winning at Pontefract she followed up on good to soft ground at Thirsk next time when she won going away. Her connections think a fair bit of this filly and this race has always been the early season target so she should run well off a feather weight.