mtom Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 I've had the following idea for some time: Betting on a defender throughout the season on being anytime goalscorer. For the system you will need 380u bank (for every game in PL) and bet 10u per game. Odds vary, but are usually between 10 and 13 depending on the game, but for easier calculation I'll take 10 as constant odd. Let's say I choose Vermaelen as anytime gs, just last season in PL he had 6 goals (6 x 10u @ odd 10 = 600u) for 29 games (29 x 10 u = 290u), which would have resulted in 310u profit! The rule in this strategy is to bet on only one defender for the whole season (meaning that if he is injured or suspended you don't bet at all) and the down side is that the chosen defender might get seriously injured for example. I would be happy to hear your opinions, recommendations and/or concerns. P.S. Math is NOT my strong side, so if, for some reason, I have made a mistake in my calculations, please be nice and don't rub it in my nose, I will be embarrassed enough :lol:lol:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ONEDUNME Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Re: Defender Anytime Goalscorer Strategy Good luck with this. I often bet defenders to score but usually on the goal minutes on spread bets. The most annoying factor is when they don't start, come on as sub and then score. Annoying. You'll be lucky to find a defender who scores 6 goals in a season though. It obviously happens but you'd have to be very lucky for it to happen to the guy who's carrying your money. John Terry scored six in the Prem last season (I think), which sounds promising until you consider that he's been a regular for 12 years and his goal tally in that time is 28 and at that rate, he wouldn't break even at 10/1. Good luck though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ballisticdisco Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Re: Defender Anytime Goalscorer Strategy This is an interesting idea, I usually look at defenders for anytime scorers. Just done a quick bit of research and found the following La Liga (Spain) - Siqueria scored 6 in 35 for Granada Serie A (Italy) - Three defenders scored 5 Have you looked at defenders that take free kicks? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtom Posted July 9, 2012 Author Share Posted July 9, 2012 Re: Defender Anytime Goalscorer Strategy Ballisticdisco, no, I haven't looked at defenders that take free kicks mainly because I don't know many (on the top of my head I have Baines and Riise, but they haven't been that successful at scoring). The main determinant when choosing will be how often the defender goes in the penalty box when there are corners and free-kicks and the two obvious defenders would be Vermaelen and Terry. I also have Huth on my radar since Stoke seems to play this type of football and Hangeland who is a regular in Fulham. However the problem with all defenders could be consistency or the lack of it (and heavy injury as already mentioned). For example Hangeland have 0 (zero!) goals for 37 games last season and 6 for the same amount of games the season before that. Huth is in similar position. I don't know...I believe it's worth trying but still you must rely on luck big time... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ballisticdisco Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 Re: Defender Anytime Goalscorer Strategy MTOM, Obviously they'd be a large slice of luck involved, however I think this has some legs. Looked a bit more into it, Championship - Greg Halford - 7 Goals - 42 games - 5 of these goals were penalties League one - Scott Laird - 8 goals - 46 games or Reda Johnson - 7 Goals - 25 games League two - Lee Brown - 7 goals - 42 games So taking Reda Johnson 7 goals in 25 games. If you bet £10 a game, that's an outlay of £250. 7 goals at for example 10/1 with a £10 bet means £700, a profit of £450, very interesting! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 Re: Defender Anytime Goalscorer Strategy Someone like Leighton Baines at Everton might be worth a go as I think he takes penalties unless it is shared between him and Cahill. Maybe an Everton fan can let us know. 4 goals last season but bookies often price up penalty takers a bit shorter. Vermaelen is a good shout and like you say gets a few over the season. A problem I could see is if Vermaelen gets a few in a row they might shorten his odds somewhat. If you can find out penalty takers that are defenders from lower leagues it could be useful. I picked up on something a few seasons back at Bradford. Luke Oliver was being played as a striker by Peter Taylor but is a central defender. He was 9-1 for 1st goal with some bookies but Coral went 33-1. I posted it up on here several times in the L2 thread and he got a few 1st goals at 33's and would have been huge odds too for anytime goalscorer. Coral soon got wind and made him 10-1 shortly after. Good luck with this, will watch with keen interest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ONEDUNME Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 Re: Defender Anytime Goalscorer Strategy MTOM, Obviously they'd be a large slice of luck involved, however I think this has some legs. Looked a bit more into it, Championship - Greg Halford - 7 Goals - 42 games - 5 of these goals were penalties League one - Scott Laird - 8 goals - 46 games or Reda Johnson - 7 Goals - 25 games League two - Lee Brown - 7 goals - 42 games So taking Reda Johnson 7 goals in 25 games. If you bet £10 a game, that's an outlay of £250. 7 goals at for example 10/1 with a £10 bet means £700, a profit of £450, very interesting! Very interesting, yes. We can all name defenders who have scored five, six or seven when the season ends. Two or three defenders might score 7 goals each in the next Premiership season but the problem is picking them at the start of the season out of the hundred or so that you've got to choose from. The other thing to consider is, the more they score, the slimmer the price is likely to become. Baines is a good shout mowgli:clap. He only scored four league goals last season and the fact that he is known for his dead ball kicks means that you're probably going to get less than the 10/1 that has been mentioned on this thread as a marker but the upside is that he's entirely capable of knocking 8 or 9 in if he has a really good season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Re: Defender Anytime Goalscorer Strategy This is one of my regular bets, and at lower league level you can certainly profit if you know your stuff. Also as mentioned Coral seem to be the most generous, often offering 40/1 for 1st and 12/1 for anytime. Finding a defender who is a pen / free kick taker is a bonus, but backing a big aggressive defender who plays for a team that will be toward the top of the league is where I've made my money down the years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted August 17, 2012 Share Posted August 17, 2012 Re: Defender Anytime Goalscorer Strategy Anyone on Hudson at Cardiff? Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtom Posted August 18, 2012 Author Share Posted August 18, 2012 Re: Defender Anytime Goalscorer Strategy Seeing Vermaelen@ 5 FGS and Terry 5.5 for example, I doubt the system is worth on Premier League level... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Re: Defender Anytime Goalscorer Strategy Seeing Vermaelen@ 5 FGS and Terry 5.5 for example' date=' I doubt the system is worth on Premier League level...[/quote'] Dunno where youre getting those odds from buddy but Vermaelen is 18/1 FGS where im looking Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mtom Posted August 18, 2012 Author Share Posted August 18, 2012 Re: Defender Anytime Goalscorer Strategy Sorry, my bad, I meant anytime goal scorer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted August 18, 2012 Share Posted August 18, 2012 Re: Defender Anytime Goalscorer Strategy Sorry' date=' my bad, I meant anytime goal scorer.[/quote'] Even then 7.5 is readily available Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted August 19, 2012 Share Posted August 19, 2012 Re: Defender Anytime Goalscorer Strategy There is, of course Ian Hart at Reading, who has been an excellent free-kick taker for many years & as he's playing for a promoted club,may slip under the radar price wise, though if he is their penalty taker this year the odds will reflect that. Kolarov at Man City is also a very good free kick taker, he won't play very often as he is often rotated with Cliche, but may be worth following when he does. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted August 27, 2012 Share Posted August 27, 2012 Re: Defender Anytime Goalscorer Strategy ex Man City left-back Javier Garrido who has signed for Norwich on loan from Lazio, is also an excellent free-kick taker. Wonder why so many left backs are good at free kicks & penaltys, but so few right-backs? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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