ufc 148

[superfoo]

Bang in your opinions. Cant see Sonnen repeating last times performance without juice! Will be back with more later.

[Ronnie]

Re: ufc 148 Really looking forward to this event, a good card of fights. Tito Ortiz v Forrest Griffin has the potential to be fight of the night, their first fight won fight of the year in 2006 and the 2nd meeting was again an all out war, each fighter has one win and it's Tito's last fight after a very successful career, he'll want to go out with a win but Forrest is looking to get back on track after a loss to Shogun last year, both will be going for the win and it should be one hell of a fight. Dong-Hyun Kim v Demian Maia will be a battle of endurance, Maia's switch to welterweight saw him gas badly in the 3rd round against Weidman and lose a split decision (should've been a unanimous loss), Kim has been around a while now and will use his world class judo to keep this fight on it's feet, normally he wouldn't have to do that against Maia as he has ditched his bjj game for a striking style in his last half dozen or so fights but talk is that he's going back to his roots and going to take this fight to the floor for a finish. This will take a lot out of him if he can't take down and keep down Kim. Tito Ortiz v Forrest Griffin Fight Of The Night 9/2 @ Skybet Kim to win via Decision 6/5 @ Skybet

[superfoo]

Re: ufc 148 Good stuff Ronnie. Though this is Maias first fight at 170 (Weidman would be huge at welter:lol) But the gas is a very valid point (which he could struggle with again if he doesnt cut the weight properly). White also tweeted that the cards were read out wrong and it was in fact a UD (as it surely was).

[superfoo]

Re: ufc 148 Kim v Maia This interests me from a betting perspective though it may not be the best fight to watch. It marks Maia’s debut at 170 after visibly struggling with the strength of much bigger wrestlers such as Weidman. His BJJ is elite – if not the best in the UFC but has recently opted to strike. Though his striking has improved I would still class it as average by UFC standards. Although Maia has a great ground game he sometimes struggles for the takedown (this could be attributed to the above mentioned weight/strength scenario). Kim has only one defeat in his UFC tenure – a KO loss to current interim champ Carlos Condit. His judo is elite and I believe this will be his key to winning the fight as it should allow him to dictate where the fight takes place. He is a good grappler, has decent sub defense and his ground and pound isn’t bad either. I think Kim’s stand up is good and his attack varied enough to gain an advantage in the stand up. If it goes to the ground, Kim is likely to be on top and regardless of how many sub attempts Maia may make from the bottom, the judges usually favor the guy in top position. In short, I see Kim controlling the fight though having a couple a scary moments on route to a close decision. Recommended bet 33pts Kim bt Maia 8/11 WillHill/PP/BlSq

[superfoo]

Re: ufc 148 Cung Le v Cote Personally I don’t see how this has got onto the main card. Cote is back in the ufc after 4 wins on the circuit and CungLes only appearance was his ko loss to Wanderlei Silva. Le can be quite entertaining to watch with his flashy spinning kicks and punches but is 40 and his time may well have passed. Before his UFC tenure he won the Strikeforce title defeating a well past it Frank Shamrock. He then was koed in the third against Scott Smith in a fight he was winning and then gained revenge via ko in the rematch. Then came the brutal tko against Silva where a gassed Le was beaten down by Silva. For a guy who has no ground game 2 ko losses in his last 3 fights doesn’t bode too well. Cote was a decent fighter but seems have been swallowed up by the new breed. Again he prefers to stand but claims he has been wrestling 4 days a week for the last 18 months in attempt to rectify his most obvious weakness. Cote has a solid chin and has never been stopped apart from due to injury in his title shot against Anderson Silva. This could be an entertaining fight which is likely to stay standing, though it wouldn’t surprise me if Cote tried to put his new wrestling skills to the test and try and take down Le due to his lack of ground game but I do feel it would be unlikely though he does state he’s a different fighter to the sometimes reckless gung ho, wide open defense. He is not massive volume puncher but does have power. It’s a pretty trick fight to call as I doubt Cote will have seen the attacking arsenal that Le possesses. That said if Le couldn’t get a shot Wanderlei out of there, then I see Cote being able to withstand his power. Seeing how Le gassed in the 3rd against Wandy and his other loss to Smith was in the third round, I see value in following the trend. Recommended bet 4 pts Cote bt Le in Round 3 10/1 Ladbrokes

[superfoo]

Re: ufc 148 Silva v Sonnen The rematch everybody has wanted. Sonnen beat down Silva for 4.5 rounds until the p4p champ pulled miraculous armbar/choke. As per usual Sonnen has run his mouth off in a somewhat entertaining way and has really got under Silva’s skin. I know this is what Sonnen wanted to do but no-one has ever seen Silva this annoyed even going as far as saying he’s going to break every bone and have Sonnen carried out of the ring for his disrespect. Since the first fight the strength and ability to throw Silva around which surprised many was attributed to the fact that Sonnen tested positive for steroids and was subsequently banned. But regardless of the PEDS could Sonnen be Silva’s kryptonite? Personally I don’t think so and my personal opinion is he greatly benefitted from his use of the juice. Sonnen was pretty average in his last fight against Bisping in what was a pretty close decision, that some feel that Bisping could have got the nod. I think Sonnen will employ the same game plan as in the first fight with aggressive takedown attempts, trying to keep the pressure on and keep Silva uncomfortable. Sonnen has no way of winning in this fight if he cannot take this to the ground, that’s a given. Silva’s takedown defence is good – 80% before the Sonnen fight, which makes the first fight a little confusing as Sonnen was able to do so with ease, injured ribs or not on Silva’s behalf. Taking into account Silva’s injured ribs and the positive test for steroids from Sonnen I think this could be different and I think Silva really wants to hurt Sonnen. I can’t see past Silva winning this, I even think he will stop Sonnen, perhaps in convincing fashion to erase the only blot on his UFC legacy. That said I cannot fully eradicate what Sonnen did to Silva last time despite the possible reasons for that above.

[superfoo]

Re: ufc 148 Camoes v Guillard Guillard was highly touted at one point but is fighting to get back on the ladder after back to back choke submission losses to Lauzon and Miller. It could be argued that Lauzon caught a lucky punch before sinking in the fight winning choke, though I believe credit should be given where it is due on Luzon’s behalf. In the loss to Miller, Guillard looked to be in control with his striking before deciding to go for a flying knee offensive against a known grappler and sub artist in Miller. Mental lapse or stupidity – he still lost the fight. Despite his neck being a magnet for chokeholds (8 of his 10 losses coming that way) Guillard is a fearsome striker and has a good takedown defence. Cuemos is a decent fighter but is primarily a BJJ expert, with a like for chokes. This would be bad news for Guillard but I struggle to see how he is going to get Guillard down to the mat. His striking is not particularly great and his shoots lack explosiveness – his best way of doing so is by pressing against the cage and working for a single leg maybe. If Guillard keeps his head and doesn’t have any stupid mental lapses I see Guillard outstriking his opponent, maybe finishing the bout with a highlight reel ko.

[superfoo]

Re: ufc 148 McKenzie v Mendes This seems an odd bit of matchmaking to me, even to the extent that it could be possible that Mendes has been given what is considered an easy touch after his first round KO loss to champ Aldo. Mendes was holding his own in that fight before being caught with a wicked knee at the end of the round. Previous to that Mendes had easily beaten all put in front of him. He has excellent wrestling pedigree and is better at striking than the awkward McKenzie whose striking, though improved, can look a little comical at times. In fact I think that Mendes is better in every department apart from McKenzie’s go to move – that modified guillotine choke, The McKenzietine; his last 11 wins have come via this method. For his part Mendes does like to explode in his shoots and is very effective with this method. This opens the possibility for ‘that’ choke but Mendes trains with Team Alpha Male which is well known for its guillotines with Faber, Benavides et al, so he should have drilled these and know what to expect and in my opinion he should be able to avoid. Mendes is not known for his finishing but is certainly in the upper echelons of the division – somewhere at present that McKenzie is unlikely to get to. At odds of 1/5 I can’t back Mendes, too short for me and it would only take a lapse for McKenzie to grab that neck. A better alternative for me is for Mendes to finish the fight inside the distance. In his 4 UFC fights McKenzie has 2 losses sandwiched between two wins. His losses were both to chokes in the 2nd round against (no disrespect) to less than stellar fighters in Rocha and Yaboun. Nam Pham also stopped him in TUF with body shots. Mendes is a league above all those fighters and despite the lack of stoppages in his wins I feel that Mendes can finish the job with the advantages he holds. I also think that coming off his first career loss to Aldo he will want to make a statement. McKenzie steps down a division for this which seems strange considering his already skinny and lanky frame. If he has not cut correctly this could lead to fatigue as Mendes will certainly be bringing pressure and making McKenzie work for as long as it lasts.

[Mors Westerland]

Re: ufc 148 sage like advice. this will be acted upon. thank you, superfoo.

[SALVO7ITALY]

Re: ufc 148 Silva does seem the obvious choice but the odds are just too low! They say in martial arts never to fight when angry, so silver might fall right into sonnens trap. So could well be an upset here!

[SALVO7ITALY]

Re: ufc 148 Is it me or does Forrest griffin seem underprepared for tonight. Because Ortiz is at 3.5 which seems great value and he has the motivation fo tonight.

[irishpunter]

Re: ufc 148 Has Silva any fight lined up next?

[superfoo]

Re: ufc 148 Not yet. Id guess Weidman after his demolition of Munoz but they may want to give him another fight.