247punter Posted February 8, 2005 Share Posted February 8, 2005 Ok gotta be quick before the first race goes off, so i will post more about my little system after the days racing, but basically its a system that goes for longshots, done a little history on it and it seems to work but have not done any extended analysis of the results so it really is trial and error, but here goes. TIME MEETING SELECTION 1.00 LINGFIELD FULVIO 1.30 LINGFIELD FEMINIST 1.50 MARKET RASEN SIEGFIEDS NIGHT 2.00 LINGFIELD BARTON SANDS 2.10 SOUTHWELL ZORN 2.50 MARKET RASEN COUNTRY CLASSIC 3.00 LINGFEILD ROMAN MAZE 3.10 SOUTHWELL ZANTERO 3.20 MARKET RASEN BDELLIUM 3.50 MARKET RASEN COURAGE UNDER FIRE 4.00 LINGFIELD ENTERTAIN 4.20 MARKET RASEN SIMLET 4.30 LINGFIELD LARA FALANA 4.40 SOUTHWELL GRANDMA LILY I have not really worked out if they are best to do place or just straight out wins but for this little trial i will do wins only, also i would only ever get the prices from an exchange simply because on longshots they are always much higher. Probably all lose now anyway. good luck anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyirwin Posted February 8, 2005 Share Posted February 8, 2005 Re: Long shots kick the bucket Going well so far. 3 2nds at 11, 14 and 5 and a 5\1 winner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
247punter Posted February 8, 2005 Author Share Posted February 8, 2005 Re: Long shots kick the bucket Heres todays results TIME MEETING SELECTION RESULTS 1.00 LINGFIELD FULVIO LOSER 1.30 LINGFIELD FEMINIST 2nd 11/1 1.50 MARKET RASEN SIEGFIEDS NIGHT 2nd 14/1 2.00 LINGFIELD BARTON SANDS WON 5/1 2.10 SOUTHWELL ZORN 2nd 6/1 2.50 MARKET RASEN COUNTRY CLASSIC 3rd 11/1 3.00 LINGFEILD ROMAN MAZE 2nd 7/1 3.10 SOUTHWELL ZANTERO LOSER 3.20 MARKET RASEN BDELLIUM LOSER 3.50 MARKET RASEN COURAGE UNDER FIRE WON 11/2 4.00 LINGFIELD ENTERTAIN LOSER 4.20 MARKET RASEN SIMLET LOSER 4.30 LINGFIELD LARA FALANA 2nd 9/1 4.40 SOUTHWELL GRANDMA LILY WON 4/1 Profit/Loss +6.5 Not a bad start i suppose though it would have been tastier if one of the placed horses would have gone in, a very quick analysis of the days results shows me that there were just the 3 winners but at prices that gave a profit, in terms of placed horses there were 9 out of 14 and would have returned a nice profit on the day. Also all the above winners and placed horses were generally at much better odds on betfair which would increase the profits i am sure, as an example 2 of the 3 winners were at much better prices today on betfair and the lowest price for a place on any of the horses today was 2.24 which was a loser anyway and if you would have done the places only on betfair you would in effect of had 9 winners from 14 at prices from 2.28 - 4.7, again not too bad. The problem with using exchanges is that it is very hard to pinpoint the price on here, if as an example i saw a horse at 10s when the bookies had it at 7s only my word is available as proof of that and therefore for no clouding of the price i will use sp, but please be aware that the odds are better for longshots on the exchanges. Anyway like i said this is really trial and error and maybe at some stage i will keep a running record of placed horses but for now its win only and a winning first day. Good Luck all. PS if any result or my figures are wrong please let me know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ONEDUNME Posted February 8, 2005 Share Posted February 8, 2005 Re: Long shots kick the bucket :clap Pretty impressive Punter. I for one will be watching very closely from here on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ralphie7 Posted February 8, 2005 Share Posted February 8, 2005 Re: Long shots kick the bucket well done mate :ok have you worked out what the profit would have been if you had done them each way ? there are some big priced placed selections in there. :welcome ralphie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
247punter Posted February 9, 2005 Author Share Posted February 9, 2005 Re: Long shots kick the bucket Hello to onedunme and ralphie7 and thank you for your kind words and encouragement :D Ralphie7 i did work the profit out on betfair places but in all fairness some of the prices i managed to grab were a bit generous and would never have been available at traditional high street bookies and not knowing the protocol on here etc i decided to avoid posting any prices up from betfair and also the win prices were also a lot better on betfair and again i avoided using those prices for this little trial. But what i have done is keep a record of the prices and depending on how this all pans out over the next week i may well start to include the place profit and loss, i suspect that the places will pay more as long as they are straight place bets as oppose to the traditional ew, but in answer to your question Ralphie doing the direct places on betfair yesterday would have returned over 20pts profit, not sure what it would have been at sp @ 1/5 the odds but expect it would have been significantly lower but still more than the win profit, phew, hope that covers it all. i will post todays system picks at around 12.0 clock. Oh both ONEDUNME and Ralphie 7 i have been following both your threads as well and if i get to your standards then i will be happy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
247punter Posted February 9, 2005 Author Share Posted February 9, 2005 Re: Long shots kick the bucket Ok heres todays selections TIME MEETING SELECTION 12.50 LINGFIELD I WISH 1.10 CARLISE CRATHORNE 1.20 LINGFIELD ACKNOWLEDGMENT 1.30 LUDLOW JAYED 1.45 CARLISE FALCHION 2.05 LUDLOW POLLENSA BAY 2.20 CARLISE EWE BEAUTY 2.30 LINGFIELD SPENCE APPEAL 2.55 CARLISE SANDS RISING 3.05 LINGFIELD INDIAN STEPPES 3.15 LUDLOW GATORADE 3.30 CARLISE SILVER JACK 3.40 LINGFIELD CAPTAIN JOHNNO 3.50 LUDLOW KILDEE LASS 4.05 CARLISE STAR TROOPER 4.15 LINGFIELD GOLDHILL PRINCE 4.35 CARLISE FLINTOFF 4.45 LINGFIELD LAKOTA BRAVE I am a little disapointed that the system has thrown up so many qualifiers today, its not always like this, i may have to add in another filter at some point but that means going back over previous results etc so that will take time. With regards to todays runners the lowest place price on betfair for any of the above horses is 2.28 and the lowest price for any winner is 6 and the highest place price is 5.1 and the highest win price is 34 so there is definately some juicy prices to be had, though i have found that on longshots the prices mainly seem to go out so waiting until near the off is probably the best thing to do. Also please note that due to non runners there are 2, 7 runner races in the list above, the 4.15 at lingfield and the 4.05 at carlise, however if you are doing place betting betfair places will pay out on 3 places, but double check first. good luck to you all. If anything is wrong above please let me know Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
247punter Posted February 9, 2005 Author Share Posted February 9, 2005 Re: Long shots kick the bucket Heres todays results TIME MEETING SELECTION RESULT 12.50 LINGFIELD I WISH LOSER 1.10 CARLISE CRATHORNE LOSER 1.20 LINGFIELD ACKNOWLEDGMENT 3rd 25/1 1.30 LUDLOW JAYED 2nd 4/1 1.45 CARLISE FALCHION LOSER 2.05 LUDLOW POLLENSA BAY LOSER 2.20 CARLISE EWE BEAUTY LOSER 2.30 LINGFIELD SPENCE APPEAL 2nd 4/1 2.55 CARLISE SANDS RISING LOSER 3.05 LINGFIELD INDIAN STEPPES LOSER 3.15 LUDLOW GATORADE LOSER 3.30 CARLISE SILVER JACK LOSER 3.40 LINGFIELD CAPTAIN JOHNNO 2nd 5/1 (15p ded) 3.50 LUDLOW KILDEE LASS LOSER 4.05 CARLISE STAR TROOPER LOSER 4.15 LINGFIELD GOLDHILL PRINCE LOSER (3rd 15/2 Betfair paid on 3rd place) 4.35 CARLISE FLINTOFF 2nd 12/1 4.45 LINGFIELD LAKOTA BRAVE 2nd 8/1 Profit/Loss -18 Running Total -12 For those that do the wins only it was obviously a bad day for the system, a bit of seconditis, for those on places only it appears there were some nice prices even though only 6 out of 18 came in (though on betfair you would have been paid on 3rd place on the 4.15 lingfield, i got 3.75 to place and that would have meant 7 places out of 18) I will continue to do this as a win only project but am increasingly becoming convinced that place only on betfair is the way to go. early days yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyirwin Posted February 9, 2005 Share Posted February 9, 2005 Re: Long shots kick the bucket Hi 247. I followed these selections as place bets today and it seems it could well be the way to go. However yesterday did bring up a few decent priced winners which would be missed with place bets. Give it a while and then have a look back at how different methods would have faired. Maybe look at some staking plans as well and see how they look. Does look an interesting system however. Keep it up Andy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ONEDUNME Posted February 9, 2005 Share Posted February 9, 2005 Re: Long shots kick the bucket I agree. Dont know what your staking amounts are is but I wonder if it would be worth a couple of quid to win and three quid for a place or something. I've had some pretty big priced winners in the last three weeks and the price on betfair has ALWAYS been well bigger than the SP price. On the down side, the place price is usually less than a quarter the win odds so its difficult to know what to do. Just as an example, on Sunday I backed pennys crown which won at 20/1 and I got nearer 27/1 on betfair after commision and, on the same day (although it didnt win) bens revenge finished 2nd at 25/1 and Id had a couple of quid on it at 54/1. I know we all bet with different stakes and the downside is that the minimum bet is £2 on betfair but my view is that the ideal situation would be to split the bet between win and place and stick with betfair. My only other question (being purely selfish) would be, what time of day would be the earliest you could post your picks punter, as Im usually at work and cant get on them:( :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
247punter Posted February 10, 2005 Author Share Posted February 10, 2005 Re: Long shots kick the bucket Hello Andyirwin, thanks for your support hope we have a better day today with some winners, in terms of stakes etc i am doing both win and place on betfair at the moment but because it is all trial and error at the moment i am doing level stakes as opposed to a staking plan, may well sort out one, i intend to spend the day today analysing past results and see what crops up. ONEDUNME, you are so right about better prices on betfair for big price winners and if you wait long enough you can pick up some good place prices but you right the place prices sometimes can leave a lot to be desired, as an example if a horse on betfair is priced at 10s the place price will reflect that but as soon as the win price is pushed out the place price seems unable to keep pace with it and then the place price looks out of sync, but i still think that in line with sp it is favorable but i would have to defer to you on that as i have no analytical proof of that. For this project onedunme i am just doing £2 wins and £2 place but i think from today onward i will do £2 win £4 place and see how that goes, i will try to post the selections as early as possible but i fear that it will almost always be around midday, i am self employed but have a partner and we tend to be fairly busy on the mornings, but i will try mate :D Finally chaps i have decided to use both betfairs and sp prices, i only use betfair for this and therefore think its only fair, i am not too sure how i will post it all on here but basically from today onwards betfairs prices will be reflected and maybe the place price, i will have to see. I will post the selections up at midday today (sorry onedunme, havnt even got the papers yet:cry better go get them now) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
247punter Posted February 10, 2005 Author Share Posted February 10, 2005 Re: Long shots kick the bucket Heres todays selection, earlier than usual, hope that helps TIME MEETING SELECTION 1.40 HUNTINGDON ACCEPTIING 1.50 SOUTHWELL AWAKE 2.00 WINCANTON ELLE ROSEADOR 2.30 WINCANTON TRIBAL DANCER 2.50 SOUTHWELL MYTTONS DREAM 3.00 WINCANTON BISHOPS BRIDGE 3.10 HUNTINGDON DUMFRIES 3.40 HUNTINGDON ROSE OF THE HILL 4.20 SOUTHWELL KING AFTER 4.30 WINCANTON FAST MIX The win prices on betfair range from 6.8 to 55 and the place range from 2.04 to 6, Good luck today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
247punter Posted February 11, 2005 Author Share Posted February 11, 2005 Re: Long shots kick the bucket The latest reults TIME MEETING SELECTION RESULT 1.40 HUNTINGDON ACCEPTIING LOSER 1.50 SOUTHWELL AWAKE LOSER 2.00 WINCANTON ELLE ROSEADOR LOSER 2.30 WINCANTON TRIBAL DANCER LOSER 2.50 SOUTHWELL MYTTONS DREAM LOSER 3.00 WINCANTON BISHOPS BRIDGE LOSER 3.10 HUNTINGDON DUMFRIES LOSER 3.40 HUNTINGDON ROSE OF THE HILL LOSER 4.20 SOUTHWELL KING AFTER LOSER 4.30 WINCANTON FAST MIX LOSER Profit/Loss -10 Running Total -22 An awful day what can i say, 10 selections, 10 straight losers, no excuses just a very bad day, not even a single placing. I am not too down, this is the nature of this type of systems, if you go for long shots you have to expect a run of losers, but i must confess that when i did the past results on the system i never had 10 straight losers on place as well, though i should have expected it, it is always the case that when you go public with a system it tends to go all wrong. But i will perservere and hope for a couple of big price winners :D I will post up todays selections as soon as i can. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
247punter Posted February 11, 2005 Author Share Posted February 11, 2005 Re: Long shots kick the bucket Todays selections TIME MEETING SELECTION 1.25 WOLVERHAMPTON MISS MONICA 2.00 KEMPTON RAMBLING BRIDGE 3.00 WOLVERHAMPTON PANJANDRUM 3.35 WOLVERHAMPTON NOW LOOK AWAY 3.45 KEMPTON ROYAL ATALZA 4.00 BANGOR AUBURN SPIRIT 4.10 WOLVERHAMPTON GIANTS ROCK 4.30 BANGOR CASSIA GREEN All i will say today is good luck :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ONEDUNME Posted February 12, 2005 Share Posted February 12, 2005 Re: Long shots kick the bucket Another bad day punter but don't let it get you down. As you say, backing big prices inevitably means a lot of losers. Let's have some more for today mate:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
247punter Posted February 12, 2005 Author Share Posted February 12, 2005 Re: Long shots kick the bucket Latest Results TIME MEETING SELECTION RESULT 1.25 WOLVERHAMPTON MISS MONICA LOSER 2.00 KEMPTON RAMBLING BRIDGE LOSER 3.00 WOLVERHAMPTON PANJANDRUM LOSER 3.35 WOLVERHAMPTON NOW LOOK AWAY LOSER 3.45 KEMPTON ROYAL ATALZA LOSER 4.00 BANGOR AUBURN SPIRIT LOSER 4.10 WOLVERHAMPTON GIANTS ROCK LOSER 4.30 BANGOR CASSIA GREEN LOSER Prrofit/Loss -8 Running Total -30 As you can see another poor day, maybe i found the perfect lay system :D ONEDUNME thanks for the words of encouragement, i absolutely do intend to keep this going, i obviously have a cut off point where i will have to accept that the system is a dodo but we are nowhere near it yet, i have to give it a chance to unfold one way or the other, strange thing is though in the little bit of back history it showed a healthy profit, sods law really. Anyway i have caught a little bug and have a little bit of sickness so i may be running a little late posting up todays selection, but i will get up as soon as i can. Good luck all today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
laney Posted February 12, 2005 Share Posted February 12, 2005 Re: Long shots kick the bucket Onedunme The min bet is anything you like on Betfair...a few examples about but will tell you how if you can't find them!! Elaine Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
247punter Posted February 12, 2005 Author Share Posted February 12, 2005 Re: Long shots kick the bucket Todays afternoon selections TIME MEETING SELECTION 1.05 LINGFIELD RYANS QUEST 2.25 NEWBURY BALLYCASSIDY 3.15 LINGFIELD ART MODERN 3.50 LINGFIELD NORTHERN DESERT 4.10 NEWBURY VICTORY GUNNER 4.40 NEWBURY LUTEA 4.55 LINGFIELD GREENWOOD There may be some for tonight also, i will post an update later, good luck all, we need it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ONEDUNME Posted February 12, 2005 Share Posted February 12, 2005 Re: Long shots kick the bucket Thanks Laney, I've seen an example since I posted that. Haven't tried it yet but it makes sence to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ONEDUNME Posted February 12, 2005 Share Posted February 12, 2005 Re: Long shots kick the bucket Art Modern a winner at 9/2:clap Northern Desert is a non runner in the 350 race Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
247punter Posted February 13, 2005 Author Share Posted February 13, 2005 Re: Long shots kick the bucket Latest Results TIME MEETING SELECTION RESULT 1.05 LINGFIELD RYANS QUEST LOSER 2.25 NEWBURY BALLYCASSIDY LOSER 3.15 LINGFIELD ART MODERN WON 9/2 3.50 LINGFIELD NORTHERN DESERT NR 4.10 NEWBURY VICTORY GUNNER LOSER 4.40 NEWBURY LUTEA LOSER 4.55 LINGFIELD GREENWOOD LOSER Profit/Loss -0.5 Running Total -30.5 Another losing day but only just,thats something :D I was unable to post last nights selections and will struggle today because sickness has taken hold of me, its one thing doing a bit of copying and paste on here its another thing sorting a sytem when your guts are......well you know what i mean. But i will try. ONEDUNME thanks for your support mate, i hope this turns around just for you :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
247punter Posted February 13, 2005 Author Share Posted February 13, 2005 Re: Long shots kick the bucket Due to time constraints here are the first 2 races today, with only mins to spare...sorry scratch the dove 1.40 exeter ambition royal 1.50 ayr others to follow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
247punter Posted February 13, 2005 Author Share Posted February 13, 2005 Re: Long shots kick the bucket Heres the next selections, i will post the full list up next. Alessandro severo 2.0 hereford ideal du bois beury 2.20 ayr ishka baha 2.30 ayr behavingbadly 2.50 ayr ideal jack 3.0 hereford now i have some breathing space Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
247punter Posted February 13, 2005 Author Share Posted February 13, 2005 Re: Long shots kick the bucket OK here is todays full list TIME MEETING SELECTION 1.40 EXETER SCRATCH THE DOVE 1.50 AYR AMBITION ROYAL 2.00 HEREFORD ALESSANDRO SEVERO 2.20 AYR IDEAL DU BOIS BEURY 2.30 HEREFORD ISHKA BAHA 2.50 AYR BEHAVINGBADLY 3.00 HEREFORD IDEAL JACK 3.50 AYR KEMPSKI 4.00 HEREFORD YOUNG LORCAN 4.10 EXETER LORD LINGTON 4.40 EXETER DARE TO DREAM 4.50 AYR WITCH WIND My apologises for posting erratically today, however all selections were posted before any offs (even if by only 2 mins). Good luck today and fingers crossed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyirwin Posted February 13, 2005 Share Posted February 13, 2005 Re: Long shots kick the bucket Not too bad today. Seems that the runners at Ayr did well today including a 50\1 2nd. I had a few quid on him and should have backed the place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
247punter Posted February 14, 2005 Author Share Posted February 14, 2005 Re: Long shots kick the bucket Latest Results TIME MEETING SELECTION RESULT 1.40 EXETER SCRATCH THE DOVE LOSER 1.50 AYR AMBITION ROYAL 2nd 8/1 2.00 HEREFORD ALESSANDRO SEVERO LOSER 2.20 AYR IDEAL DU BOIS BEURY 2nd 10/1 2.30 HEREFORD ISHKA BAHA 3rd 5/1 2.50 AYR BEHAVINGBADLY LOSER 3.00 HEREFORD IDEAL JACK NR 3.50 AYR KEMPSKI 2nd 50/1 4.00 HEREFORD YOUNG LORCAN 2nd 11/1 4.10 EXETER LORD LINGTON LOSER 4.40 EXETER DARE TO DREAM 2nd 11/4 4.50 AYR WITCH WIND WON 7/2 Profit/Loss -6.5 running total -37 Another losing day but for place punters a profitable one, i am going to spend the day working out the place prices etc and see where that would leave us on this system. andyirwin thanks for the comments, though you may not want to back these horses until the sytem proves itself one way or another. Todays selections will follow shortly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
247punter Posted February 14, 2005 Author Share Posted February 14, 2005 Re: Long shots kick the bucket Todays selections TIME MEETING SELECTION 1.50 WOLVERHAMPTON WENDYS GIRL 2.00 PLUMPTON MR DINGLAWI 2.10 LINGFIELD FREE STYLE 2.20 WOLVERHAMPTON HENRY TUN 2.40 LINGFIELD BA CLUBMAN 2.50 WOLVERHAMPTON WE'RE STONYBROKE 3.20 WOLVERHAMPTON BLUE HILLS 3.40 LINGFIELD GENTLE RESPONSE 3.50 WOLVERHAMPTON MOLDAVIA 4.00 PLUMPTON EMERALD EXPRESS 4.10 LINGFIELD VIZULIZE 4.40 LINGFIELD INDIAN BLAZE Good luck all, we need it :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
247punter Posted February 15, 2005 Author Share Posted February 15, 2005 Re: Long shots kick the bucket I will update yesterdays results later on, No selections today, i am taking a couple of days break, sick as a parrot here, cannot shake of this bug i have and have decided to rest up. see you all in a couple of days Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.