Flat Racing ~ Saturday June 30th

[BillyHills]

Lets hope Newcastle gets the go ahead tomorrow! 2.15 Newcastle: Betfred Mobile Lotto Chipchase Stakes (Group 3) (6f) A good quality renewal here and I think it will involve the market leaders, I like Eton Rifles in these conditions and hopefully will get the breaks this time, he’s definitely coming to hand and will be hard to beat. The obvious danger is Our Jonathan who has made the transition from handicap company to Group class and I expect the pair to fight out the finish. Selections: 2pts Eton Rifles 9/2 Paddy Power 1pt Our Jonathan 3/1 Boylesports Full Preview; http://www.punterslounge.com/newcastle-betting--eton-rifles-to-get-back-to-winning-ways-in-newcastle-opener

[beaker1]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday June 30th 3:20 Newcastle – John Smith´s Northumberland Plate I am not sure if the meeting will go ahead as they are inspecting at 8am tomorrow but we will give it a go just in case they pass. There are some decent trends surrounding the Northumberland Plate and I could have kicked myself last year for ignoring them when it came to the winner. He qualified on most counts but, ignorantly, I ignored him because of connections. I won’t be making that same mistake again. Accept for Bangalore who carried 9st 5lbs to victory in 2002, 11 of the last 12 Northumberland Plate winners carried less than 9st. I am going to stick to my guns this year and that therefore means going against the current favourite Ile De Re and the fancied Gulf Of Naples in addition to Petara Bay, Blue Bajan, Icon Dream and Crackentorp. Following on nicely from the issue of weight, it is interesting to note that 11 of the last 13 renewals were won by horses officially rated between 85 & 94. The only 2 exceptions to that rule were Archduke Ferdinand in 2001 and the aforementioned Bangalore in 2002. Therefore I am taking the bold move to discount The Betchworth Kid, Motivado and Kiama Bay who all appear to be too high in the weights and Halla San, French Hollow and Trovare who appear too low. It is natural to assume that the draw in a 2m race won’t make any difference to the outcome, but that isn’t necessarily the case. There has been a minor blip over the past couple of years but historically a low number has generally provided the highest number of winners. In fact, 8 of the last 13 winners came from a single figure draw. Therefore, although I am not discounting Lyric Street, Montaff, Kazbow, high Office and Lexington Bay at this stage they all need to remain strong against the other trends to make it onto the shortlist. Moving on to previous form, 9 of the last 13 winners had raced within the last 28 days. Unlike sprinters who can be wound up at home on the gallops, these older stayers tend to need a race or two under their belts to be seen at their best and therefore those that have been off the track a long time should be avoided. Lyric Street and Figaro are the only 2 that fail in this area but only just. Equally as important is last time out form but not in the way you might think. In the last 12 years only 2 winners had been successful last time out, confirming that attentions should be focused on those runners that haven’t shown their full hand to the handicapper. However, the majority of those remaining 10 winners had been coming into the race with a decent effort last time behind them so I wouldn’t be too keen on anything that has been struggling coming into the race. When it comes to stamina, it goes without saying that you need to select a horse that is guaranteed to get the 2m19y trip, especially given the deluge that fell on Newcastle earlier this week. It is very easy to look at a 1m4f horse and convince yourself that he will improve for the step up in trip, a general failing of mine, but in the Plate you must stick to the proven stayers as 8 of the last 12 winners had already won over a minimum of 1m6f on the level and Mirjan and Arc Bleu had both won over 2m plus over hurdles. The only recent winner who stamina was in question going into the race was Archduke Ferdinand who hadn’t won beyond 7f on the flat but had hinted that he had a race like this in his armoury when only beaten 3L in the Gr3 Queen’s Vase 11 days earlier. Paul Cole and George Moore have been trainers to follow in the Plate but neither is represented this year. To be fair, there aren’t any trainers with runners in the race this year that have massively positive records although Richard Fahey has had a couple finish in the minor placings. However, on a negative front Mark Johnston has been one to avoid which is strange given his reputation with stayers. Since Quick Ransom caused a 25/1 upset in 1994, his runners have tended to struggle in this race so that stat helps to ease the concerns about striking Gulf Of Naples off the shortlist. With recent winners being aged from 3 to 8, there isn’t a lot to be learned although horses aged from 6 to 8 have won 7 of the last 12 renewals implying that the older horses should be the first port of call. With there being no major trials for the Northumberland Plate, the final thing to be considered is the betting. 8 of the last 12 winners had come from the first 8 in the betting so whilst I won’t be completely put off a runner at a big price, I shall be having a close look at those nearer to the head of the market. Shortlist Montaff Palazzo Bianco (High Office) (Lexington Bay) Conclusion After a memorable Royal Ascot John Gosden’s team will be in high spirits and Palazzo Bianco could add to that tomorrow. Princess Haya’s colt looked a very progressive stayer in the making last season and hasn’t done a lot to detract from that on his 2 starts this term. He clearly gets every yard of this 2m trip and has ticks in all of the right boxes. However, sometimes the trends can lead you down a dark alley as he looked to get stuck in the mud on heavy ground at Haydock last season and therefore there has to be an element of doubt about his ability to act on it tomorrow. It could be that he just ran flat at Haydock but something tells me that he might want a sounder surface. High Office has handled soft ground in the past but quite how he will cope with this is open to debate. From a trends point of view he us fairly strong and shouldn’t have any problems getting the trip as he did win over 1m6 at Musselburgh last season. His last couple of starts also offer enthusiasm. Narrowly beaten at York’s Dante Meeting, he then ran another sound race off his revised mark at Newmarket next time. He does have a bit to prove but he seems to be going the right way. Stablemate Lexington Bay was a soft ground winner at Ayr last season and would appear to get the trip judged on his narrow defeat at Kempton in April. I am willing to ignore his recent defeat as the trip looked on the sharp-side for him and so I wouldn’t be surprised in the least to see him bounce back although he too have a bit to prove off his current mark. But for my main selection I am siding with MONTAFF who finished runner-up in this race last year. I would say that his is pretty bomb-proof over this trip and encouragingly he did win his maiden on heavy ground here back in 2008 and has run well with cut in the ground since. It is also interesting to see that he is 11lb lower than when finishing runner-up here last year. A cynic might suggest that his season has been geared around winning this race, with the objective of his runs this season to get his handicap mark down. Whilst that may be the case, there is also the consideration that he might actually be regressive. But Channon has done it in this race in the past with Som Tala and as he performs well against the trends he gets the final vote. 7:40 Curragh – Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby (Gr1) As you would expect for a Classic, the Irish Derby always goes the way of a top class colt and often one that comes into the race on the back of some rock-solid form. Nine of the last ten winners had already won earlier in the season and on that basis the seasonal debut Akeed Mofeed looks to have plenty to prove on his first start since last September, along with Born To Sea who is yet to get off the mark after three starts this season. With the exception of Soldier Of Fortune, Frozen Fire and Cape Blanco the remaining seven winners over the past decade had all achieved a top three finish on their most recent start. This re-confirms that rock-solid recent form really is a must when it comes to this Group 1 contest and therefore Astrology who was a disappointing 4th in the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot, Born To Sea who posted an improved effort when 4th in the St James’s Palace Stakes at the same meeting and Imperial Monarch who had absolutely no luck in running when only finishing 8th in the Prix Du Jockey Club all have a major hurdle to overcome. Interestingly, only High Chaparral has won the Irish Derby in the last ten years off the back of a victory. All barring Grey Swallow, Hurricane Run and Cape Blanco had previously contested the Epsom Derby which isn’t totally surprising given the prestige of both races. A strong performance at Epsom helps alleviate any class or stamina worries surrounding any selection and of those Irish Derby winners that had contested the Epsom showpiece, only Soldier Of Fortune and Frozen Fire had failed to achieve a top three finish. Therefore, this year’s impressive Epsom winner Camelot would appear to fit the bill nicely and possibly Astrology who only just lost out in the battle for second. Aidan O’Brien has won the Irish Derby nine times since 1997 and seven times in the last decade. No other trainer has had a look-in recently as he has dominated the race over the past six years and with Astrology, Camelot and Imperial Monarch representing him tomorrow there is every chance he will record his own ‘magnificent seven’. British trained horses have an appalling record in the Irish Derby; Balanchine providing our last success back in 1994. The betting has proved highly informative in recent seasons as more often than not, the race is won by one of the more fancied runners. Grey Swallow and Frozen Fire are the only two notable exceptions as an average starting price of 9/2 tells us that those towards the head of the market tend to perform as expected. Four of the last ten winners had been send off the favourite and four second favourite and if this continues to be the case today Camelot who is currently a very well-supported odds-on favourite and Imperial Monarch who is next best at around 13/2 would appear to have the race between them. With only seven runners tomorrow each-way bets will only pay out for second place but big-priced shocks have been a regular occurrence in recent seasons, so don’t let that put you off. Sholokhov sprang a 200/1 surprise when runner-up in 2002 and a year later Roosevelt finished 3rd at 150/1 before Tycoon achieved the same feat 12 months later. Shortlist Camelot (Light Heavy) Conclusion But there is to be no shock selection as the trends firmly suggest that CAMELOT will give Aidan O’Brien his 7th successive Irish Derby winner. This Montjeu colt was impressive when winning the 2000 Guineas, despite the one mile trip being on the sharp-side for him, but surpassed even that when winning so easily over a mile and a half at Epsom. It will take a massive effort from one of his rivals to lower his colours. Imperial Monarch falls down on his last time out effort but it could be dangerous to rely too heavily on that given that it was a very messy race in France. Light Heavy and Speaking Of Which have done nothing but improve all season and whilst they would both need to step up again, it isn’t totally out of the question judged on what they have shown so far. Earlier in the week I had been quite keen of Dermot Weld’s colt as he really impressed me when winning on the Guineas card. However, that initial enthusiasm has been tempered somewhat but the heavy rains as I believe that he will only be seen at his best on a sounder surface and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him pulled out. There is less of a concern surrounding Jim Bolger’s colt who won the Derrinstown Derby Trial on good to soft and therefore his current price of around 25/1 does look a tad insulting.