Spain v Italy > The Final > 1 July

[western skies]

http://odds-comparison.bestbetting.com/football/european-championship/

[chuckthedog]

Re: Spain v Italy > The Final > 1 July Again, like in Germany vs Spain, I see a match different to what the bookies odds represent. In fact for me Italy are slight favorites to win this. So I see good value here. Italy come into this in great form and playing some great football, also with confidence, experience and great desire and motivation. The problem with Spain is they don't have goals in them and they have really failed to create clear cut chances and I can't see that changing. I think Italy can create chances, its just a matter of putting them away like they did today and keeping things tight in the middle and in defense of course. Its important for us not to forget that Spain has had the best defense in the Euro thus far. They don't give away much. This game has potential to go to overtime and penalties in which case its really a 50/50 as both teams are good in these situations. Odds should be very even in this game and I'm expecting odds to shift a bit the closer we get to the game so I would take Italy now for those who wish to back them. Italy 0.5 @1.8 and Italy to win the cup @2.7 bet365

[Mustafa]

Re: Spain v Italy > The Final > 1 July Italy in general don't start well in major tournaments, but still they managed to draw with Spain and in my opinion were a better side in that game. Since that opening fixture Italy has improved as the tournament went on, while Spain remained the same side as they were in their opening fixture. As was mentioned already, the Spanish do not have a quality striker up front who can score goals and I can't see either Torres or Negredo scoring against Buffon. I think that not only these two sides are at least equal, but I would consider Italians a better side in this encounter. So, the value is definitely in backing them.

[nioreh]

Re: Spain v Italy > The Final > 1 July For me these odds do not reflect the teams chances, with Italys being higher than what the bookies give credit for. Thus the value is on Italy and I go straight for Italy to win EURO 2012 @ 2.6 with Stan James. If we compare this to the Germany game of last night, I think Spain has a tighter defense and while the odds on unders were not so good, I found Under 0.5 in HT @ 2.38, also Stan James. It looks like a solid bet with over 50% chance of coming in. Cheers and enjoy the finals! :beer

[pg_yid]

Re: Spain v Italy > The Final > 1 July Under 2.5 @ 1.5 (Stan James) 7/10 The last seven finals of this competition have been unders, and both sides have been very underish in tournament football. 9 out of Italy's last 12 tournament matches (stretching back to the start of Euro 2008) have been unders and in that same time period 12 out Spain's 18 matches have been unders. This gives an average of 70% of unders games in recent tournaments between the two sides, whilst 1.5 implies only a 66% chance. Normally I would agree with the argument that deviation in football makes a low price on unders poor value but I can't see that deviation existing in European Championship finals with every final in recent history finishing with less than three goals. I don't see that long-term record as an anomaly or coincidence as it is natural for teams to be cautious in such games as they are afraid of losing, plus the players are pretty tired from a hectic schedule of matches. The last two (competitive) head to heads have been 1-1 and 0-0. I can see both sides cancelling each other out here. Both sides keep the ball very well, Spain will surely work hard off the ball as well after England and then surprisingly Germany's inability to close Italy down in midfield and prevent dangerous balls over the top. This will most likely lead to a packed midfield and Spain playing without a recognised striker. Italy and Spain defensively have been the two best sides in the tournament, with some excellent performances from both sides' defenders and only four goals conceded between them so far. I can see Spain nullifying the threat of Italy's midfield with their hard work off the ball, and meanwhile Spain have only looked really threatening in front of goal in short bursts this tournament. I think 0-0 or a one goal win from either team is very likely here. If the score reaches 1-1 late on I'm sure we could see both sides settle for extra time. Value on the goals market is on backing the unders here IMO. I see no precedent for overs and am happy with this bet whether it wins or loses. I will look into the match betting later on, was hoping to get Italy +0.5AH @ evens or higher, unfortunately it is not the case!

[pg_yid]

Re: Spain v Italy > The Final > 1 July Brooke- I disagree that if it is 1-1 with 30 minutes left there will be "30 minutes of pure attack". Generally (there may be the odd exception) this is not how players react in this situation. It may seem to us that they would want to win the game and avoid the lottery of extra time and penalties. But in that situation teams almost always fear losing the game more than they fear extra time/penalties. If it is 1-1, of course either side may win 2-1, but I very much doubt we'll see either side throwing caution to the wind. You're right in that an early goal could open the game up and end up ruining the unders bet. But the same could be said for any game and is not a reason in itself not to back unders.

[ijustwanttowin!]

Re: Spain v Italy > The Final > 1 July brooke what i noticed about italy yesterday at least was they gave away alot of corners some were a bit pointless too,

[chuckthedog]

Re: Spain v Italy > The Final > 1 July

And bets to look at are: - Over 4.5 bookings (though we shall have to see who is officiating to work out the probability - Team to win the match - Penalty to be awarded / scored / missed during the match - Second half corners / Italy race to 5 or maybe 7 corners

Based on what are you betting on there being a penalty awarded? Neither team plays in the danger zone much. And I don't know know why you would be betting on Italy on a race to corners? Italy doesn't really get to the byline often meaning they don't get many corners, agains't Germany Italy didn't even get 1 corner in the whole match, and secondly odds aren't even good here. I would really suggest people to stay clear of these two bets.

[LuckAndWin]

Re: Spain v Italy > The Final > 1 July I believe the Italian gonna make it...! I know they can! They even play well compared with Germany. :)

[SALVO7ITALY]

Re: Spain v Italy > The Final > 1 July Major finals are all about Momentum and Italy have hit it at exactly the right time :-) Spain have been disappointing by there high standards but have still managed to get to the final by only conceding 1 goal. Spain are due a big game but I get the feeling that alot of the Spain players have lost there edge. You can tell this by the lack of movement upfront. If Spain play without a striker I believe Italy can hurt them like they did in the first game. Italy looked very dangerous on the counter attack against Germany and I think this will be the key factor in the final. Therefore I will be going for Italy win in 90 minutes. Possibly gamble on a 2 -0 win as well. Aswell as Balotelli scoring in anytime.

[Mustafa]

Re: Spain v Italy > The Final > 1 July

Also pg_yid on backing the unders, you are right it is a little unpredictable based on the two teams and the game, but looking at past finals I can't be confident that it will be less than 3 goals. Looking at just the scorelines you can see that: Euro2008 - Spain 1 - 0 Germany (Under) Euro2004 - Greece 1 - 0 Portugal (Under) Euro2000 - France 2 - 1 Italy (Over) Euro1996 - Germany 2 - 1 Czech (Over) So out of the last 4 finals only 50% have been under, and specifically of the 2 that went over Italy was playing in 1 of those.

I would like to point out that all of these 4 games were unders. Since in 1996 and 2000 the third goal was scored in extra time.

[pg_yid]

Re: Spain v Italy > The Final > 1 July Mustafa beat me to it...the last time the final went overs was in fact 1980.

[Mustafa]

Re: Spain v Italy > The Final > 1 July Since it is very likely to be udners, I quite like the odds on Italy to win & Under 2.5 Goals. Were @ 5.50 at the moment.

[Jase82]

Re: Spain v Italy > The Final > 1 July

Italy corners bet: I think this game will be about who can make the most of their possession in midfield, with both teams commited to defending they will be restricted to lots of shots from distance when they are faced with 3 or 4 players behind the ball. Whereas yesterday (when this was the case throughout the first half, although it seemed to drop off after Germany were 2 behind) Neuer was able to cleanly catch many of them, or rely on his defence getting back to clear them away from throw ins or just punting the ball upfield - I don't see the Spanish defence being able to do that, as they play a much higher line than the Germans did. I also expect Italy to have far more shots from just outside the box than they did yesterday as well as using the long ball over the top to further unsettle the Spanish defence. This is why I think it's a good bet

I'd expect Spain to have the majority of possession again in this match, and Italy to spend a fair amount of time defending. It makes no sense for Italy to even try to compete in midfield against Spain as we all know, they will be very dominant in that area. The previous game between these two sides earlier on in the competition ended with Italy having only two corners, Spain had 60% possession, and I see no reason for it being any different here. If anything, I think this fixture will be a lot tighter. The chances of it going to ET are pretty high IMO. I think PG Yid points out above that if both sides are still drawing with 30 minutes left neither are likely to push forward risking conceding a losing goal. That I think is pretty correct. However, Italy may win on the corners bet if Spain score and keep the 1-0 lead for a significant period of time, especially in the final quarter of the game. But even then, Spain are so good at possession football that I think a one goal lead will just give them the confidence and arrogance, which means Italy will struggle even harder for time on the ball. GL with your bet though if you do take it :ok

[pg_yid]

Re: Spain v Italy > The Final > 1 July

Lol oh under 2.5 I should have said not 3.5 sorry about that boys! Bet365 are doing under 2.5 at 1.44 and over 2.5 at 2.70 these were the two I was referring to, and whilst I will not be taking either I don't think 2.70 is particularly pricey for over 2.5 goals. If the earlier post says under 3.5 then actually, yeah there is no reason not to go for that one. I just spoke to somebody down the gym, who is a Barca fan and happens also to be Spanish (ie follows the national team as we do England) and he seems to think Xavi is having a hard time finding form which is causing problems for Spain. He says it is not because they don't play a striker, they do this to add weight to the midfield so there is less pressure on Xavi. I am meeting him tomorrow morning actually so I will ask him some more in depth questions, talking between sets of weights isn't particularly conducive to good conversations as you can imagine :) He seems to know a bit about Spain which I will admit is my least favourite subject. I have to disagree I see this game being a totally different landscape for both teams, different pressures, different tactical setups and more importantly both teams will be looking for the win, whereas before they were both more than happy to go away with a point. Spain may want to sit on a 1-1 draw but I don't see the Italians doing that as they have been punished on both the times they did do this.

Think you are getting confused here mate. Every final since 1980 has gone under 2.5 goals...those games in which there were three goals went to extra time, so under 2.5 would have still been a winner. :ok

[ijustwanttowin!]

Re: Spain v Italy > The Final > 1 July so where is the money? ive nicked italy to lift the cup last night at 2.66 £16.50 quite a large stake for me lol. but why not i did alright on the game last night! not sure what other bets to do thou

[Jase82]

Re: Spain v Italy > The Final > 1 July

Spain may want to sit on a 1-1 draw but I don't see the Italians doing that as they have been punished on both the times they did do this.

When are you talking about?

[Jase82]

Yes I can understand what you're saying, I just can't see them pushing forward against this Spain side because they'll become too open, and I agree this Italian side aren't the best at holding on to things.... I do see the group games differently to you though... Spain and Croatia were both the more offensive sides, and Italy did well to ride out everything they threw at them, eventually taking the lead against the run of play....had they not set themselves up in that way they would most probably have not scored first

[SaltandSauce]

Re: Spain v Italy > The Final > 1 July So where do we go from here? This is just one of these games that can go either way. I've been thinking about the final outcome of this game just about all day and I'm having a really hard time deciding which team is going to see it through to the very end. From what I've read so far, I can see this being a low scoring game within the first ninety minutes. If anything, in my honest opinion, it'll end up a draw. So based on that note, whichever side I choose to win, will be the team to lift the trophy Well, what can we say about Spain? Once again, they've managed to see it through to another final. But on this occasion, they've never gotten themselves out of first gear. Without Villa, Spain have lacked a real threat on goal. Instead, Spain have done what they always do and what they do best and that's keep the large majority of possession and look for small gaps in the opposing defence. All it takes is one slight mistake from the opposition and Spain pounce all over the opportunity. The thing is though; this Italian side have been brilliant throughout this entire competition with regards to their defence. Everyone knows how well the Italians defend - they've done it for years. The more I think about this game, the more I'm leaning towards the Italians. I know the Spanish always seem to shine on the big occasions but the real value has to be with the Italians. They didn't just beat a German side; instead, they absolutely hammered them. Almost everyone out there thought this was the Germans tournament to win and up until playing the Italian side, I had to agree. But after watching last night’s game, it’s safe to say that the Italians made child’s play of the German side If Balotelli plays the way he played against the Germans, he is going to be a real threat for the Spanish defence - especially in the air. He has the height and physical presence that the Spanish side lack. For me, he is going to be the deciding factor so I'm going to go with the following bets: Single Italy to lift the trophy @ 2.5 - William Hill (£10 stake) Single Spain v Italy - Under 2.5 @ 1.4 - William Hill (£10 stake) Double Italy to lift the trophy @ 2.5 - William Hill Spain v Italy - Under 2.5 @ 1.4 - William Hill (£5 stake)

[notoriouspunter]

Re: Spain v Italy > The Final > 1 July

Yep it's the hardest to call or profit from for sure - but that is half the charm if you are a gambler the challenge is to carry on making profit regardless of 'how hard the game is'. Some games I do refrain for betting on, there has been 4 so far since the groups started but not the final! Lol that would be cowardly for me, I have backed Italy all the way and now I back them again here :) It is just a case of finding the smart bets, which is the challenge for me! If we were smart we would all refrain, this is one of those games where the background and stats will count for very little. Since it is the final though I want to try to end the campaign on a high and I am willing to risk a little bit to do that. that said if I was having a bad run perhaps I wouldn't be so confident lol

I lost some with germany but Im confident italy will win. I was wrong with thinking italy is tired. They had a shorter season and italian league isnt that hard anymore. They looked very fit in the 2nd half vs germany, who did show some stamina problems too, having many players palying a long season. I did feel italy were not forced to go full tempo the whole game. The last 30 minutes they just shut the penalty are down. Spain had more rest but needed to go to a penalty shootout. They didnt look that fresh the last games. I feel spain getting more tired having the full season in their legs. This factor increases now with every game The italian substitutes looked fresh. Still apart from Balotelli the other guys didnt look that sharp in front of goal. But they do create the chances. Italy is in a clear uptrend. Spain team isnt converting that much either while looking more tired. Tough they have bigger potential to score. Both played already vs. each other and italy was clearly on the same level. Prandelli is a great coach and when he holds the balance in his team it might be the descicive factor. Del bosque has played many playing styles in various combination. While all work to some degree you get the feeling that there is the special touch missing. The italians will fight and contain the spaniards clocking the passing lanes. What didnt work in perfection till now for spain wont be working better vs. a italian team having the feel and belief how to stage an upset. I think the spanish are surprised facing italy again. They didnt seem to have a good game plan in the first match and italy is able to change formation flawlessly. Balotelli must feel great. He had soem great opportunities vs. spain and I expecting to shoot this time faster. I think spain has much respect for him. Italy sure believs in their chance. Maggio back for the right side. Jordi Alba will be pushed a bit back with Cassano filling the lines and Maggio going forward. De Rossi is now available in the midfield to track Xavi, who looks tired Rossi he struggled with a injury (but maybe they just said so as he would have been substituted anyway..he looked like a real fighter vs ger.). Italy pressed germany high up the pitch and If they can maintain that vs spain then will hold spain back from their penalty area forcing spain to move more up and down the pitch. Italy pressing these rather tired players they will end up with some fine balls for Balotelli and Cassano who move the opposition defense out of position with their movements. Its kind of crazy as italy is facing the same situation like in 2006. Tough, they sure like that. Italian highlight of the season is sunday. Spains players had already their highlight with the champions league matches beeing prepared for them. Italy straight win or italy to qualify. Odds are juicy. Tough, it coudl well end 1:0 spain or with a draw at fulltime. Halftime draw is also a good possiblitie.

[TotoSchillaci]

Re: Spain v Italy > The Final > 1 July My early thoughts:

• Spain look like they really miss Villa. Starting Negredo in semi really reeked of desperation to me. It's the semis and they were still experimenting to try and score more.

• If some sections are saying Spain are playing badly and turning people off with boring tactics, then Italy are certainly winning the admiration of fans and neutrals with this new reinvigorated game of theirs. They actually are playing more like Spain than Spain is!!

• Balotelli is an X factor who can explode in either direction. I a wonderful way like against Germany, or he can just as easily punch Sergio Ramos in the face and get sent off. :lol

But for me, after watching Balotelli and his mother after that game I think he has now learnt what is required for victory and that he has actually more mature now than at the start of the tournament when punching the turf in frustration.

• Spain are world class passers a great team but they don't have a Balotelli type. By that I mean that type of striker, but also player in general who can just make a solo piece of brilliance to change a match. I don't know maybe that's harsh to Iniesta.

• In the first game I think Italy exhaled a bit after scoring to let Spain back in for the equaliser then the game became even again. But at 0-0 Italy looked more in control.

• $4 + looks huge to me...early considerations are italy +0.5, under 2.5 goals, match to go to shootout... you get the general picture with these 3 of the path I think the game will take.

• However in saying this, because they've already had 90 mins with each other there maybe less caution taken because both are aware of what to expect and might go at each others throats you never know.

• Also I think comparing Prandelli and VDB, think the former has shown a few brilliant things like attacking Germany from the start of the game, while VDB has really made some decions with line-ups and subs that puzzled everyone and weren't really effective.:ok

[TotoSchillaci]

Re: Spain v Italy > The Final > 1 July Would just like to add that some Spanish fans were whistling their team for static overpassing. In contrast all the Polish fans in the Germany game were cheering Italy. They are really the darlings who have won the public support. Even when Italy would just do something simple as find some space in the midfield with a little quick pass sometimes you would hear the roar of approval from the crowd. This must count for something.

[Wittek]

Re: Spain v Italy > The Final > 1 July you can put the signature of a blog? thanks for the answers

[mowgli77]

Re: Spain v Italy > The Final > 1 July

you can put the signature of a blog? thanks for the answers

Posting links to websites – In general we don’t have a problem, but of course because PL is such a huge traffic website, people try to exploit that and then claim how innocent it was. Well, unauthorised posting of links is spam and are usually posted by the owner or parties involved. Email [email protected] if you wish to request a signature.

You need to provide a link back to Punterslounge from your blog and then get it agreed by emailing the above address. Hope that helps. :ok

[Wittek]

Re: Spain v Italy > The Final > 1 July

You need to provide a link back to Punterslounge from your blog and then get it agreed by emailing the above address. Hope that helps. :ok

I wrote you a private message

[quinner89]

Re: Spain v Italy > The Final > 1 July Really Looking forward to this one. Backed Italy @ 12/1 after the opening game v Spain. Now I have to stake €43 in order to active for 100% bonus from Bet365. Not sure what markets to look at. I'm thinking: Draw (90 mins) - 21/10 1-1 Draw - 5/1 If it goes to Penalties, I will bet in-play on the team that goes first :)

[Craigdh123]

Re: Spain v Italy > The Final > 1 July I really think the biggest factor will be if Spain start Torres, i really think they need to. Although Torres missed 2 great chances in the first match one of them was practically his first touch!. Spain need to play an out and out striker to run down the channels to create space for the midfield to work their magic. Italy did play very well against Spain and have clearly got better throughout the tournament, they looked at ease against Germany and should of won by 3 or 4. My usual favourite when Spain are playing is the corners bet due to their style of play i always believe there wont be many corners regardless of the opposition. Craig

[notoriouspunter]

Re: Spain v Italy > The Final > 1 July On fatigue and fitness Both played a extra time. Matches played and age: spain: ramos 56 matches age 26 arbeloa 46 matches age 29 piquet 36 matches age 25 alba 49 matches age 23 iniesta 52 matches age 28 alonso 60 matches age 30 xavi 56 matches age 32 silva 53 matches age 26 busquets 57 matches age 23 fabregas 52 matches age 25 torres 54 matches age 28 italy: barzagli 49 matches age 31 Bonucci 42 matches age 25 chiellini 45 matches age 27 Balzarreti 34 matches age 30 De rossi 36 matches age 28 Pirlo 46 matches age 33 Montolivo 39 matches age 27 Marchisio 45 matches age 26 Cassano 26 matches(had heart surgery) age 29 Balotteli 34 matches age 21 Diamanti 35 matches age 29 Motta 36 matches age 29 Abate 42 matches age 25 ________________________ Most italian players didnt participate in uefa cups. So they had less midweek matches. The Spanish players have almsot all played maximum amount of matches participating in CL and even the world club championship. The Italians clearly have an advantage here. While the italians are older then the spanish they are not too old that it would have an effect on their fitness. I say this is a big advantage. Sure its a final but spain did go all the way for 4 years now. I had the sense of them beeing very tired vs. Portugal. They looked a bit fresher in extra time due to substitutions and Portugal beeing totally tired. Spain didnt play that good passing. They over or underhit many vs. Portugal. Much cause of the portugal midfield pressure but italy is expected to give at least the same intensity. Adrnealin plays a role in a final but if you miss some percantage then it can cost you. Just comparing Xavi and Pirlo you can see a clear difference in fatigue levels. Xavi really looks tired. Would be good to hear some more opinions on this and how you guys think this influences the game? --------------- Prandelli: As Prandelli said yesterday: "We have improved because since the start we've been able to work on our physical fitness. Psychologically speaking we're a real side now. Del Bosque: "At the moment, yes, they are tired. They have played all season to their limits. But at the same time, they are used to the wear and tear of a whole season spent playing at the highest level. "Thus there is no reason to be excessively worried by this." hmmm .. "The players are tired. We're at breaking point," he admitted. "They are players who are used to this all season and I hope they get in shape for the final over these three days. "The training sessions will be light." Del Bosque’s team has an extra rest day over its opponent, something that will be appreciated as the Spanish coach admitted that he replaced Xavi Hernandez against Portugal because of fatigu Rafa Benitez: "This is the end of a long season for the players at this championship and all of them are tired but Italy's older players have the experience and organisation which allow them to succeed despite all the fatigue."

[Mustafa]

Re: Spain v Italy > The Final > 1 July Referee is Portuguese Pedro Proenca, who is known for showing many cards. However, he was in charge of 3 games at this tournament and did not show many cards. But since it is the final everything might change. So picked the Red Card in the Match @ 4.00 ​Bet365

[notoriouspunter]

Re: Spain v Italy > The Final > 1 July

Spain are clearly suffering and have been all tournament, they haven't looked particularly good in any area - though admittedly they are that good that playing badly has been more than enough to see off all their other teams comfortably apart from Italy who they drew with and could have lost to. So things looking good for the Italians, plus the conditions on Sunday evening will suit them down to the ground - I hope they don't change to be honest! Spain always compain about the hot and dry conditions affecting the pitch and this will favour the Italian style. Has anybody else made theirs? I still kept back a small stake for in-play but 90% of my match budget is now up on these. Good luck everybody!

Im thinking the same. Despite poor form they have enough quality to beat opposition who fears them or has not enough quality. Tough vs. Portugal, Italy and Croatia you could see how they lack the final touch and shot. I rewatched the Italy and Portugal game. While the possession stats let them look like dominating the game it actually were 50/50 encounters. In the first game they had some major problems with the italians. I think italy was better then spain that day but settled at some point for the draw. One thing is evident - Spain looks more and more fatigued from game to game. They lack that high tempo when pressing! -> this makes them vulnerable to the italians who are able to play long passes into the 2 strikers upfront. And they dont need that much time for that. Balotelli upfront gave Spain major headaches in the first game. Pique and especially Ramos are often pulled out of position by the two strikers. The italian midfield looks fresh enough to battle the spanish midfield. Weather will be around 28°C and dry. no rain since 2 days and tomorrow 0% chance of rain. Spain didnt looked that sharp in passing in the first 90 minutes vs. Portugal and a dry pitch might aid in this tomorrow. For example vs. france they had a good pitch and the ball rolled fluently. The odds are only this way cause spain has so much respect with the average population who bets. I can see italy fighting spain producing at least the same amount of chances. Italy looks improved to the first game while spain didnt make much more progress in their play and form(french were awfull, portugal didnt convert chances..). -Italy to win the euro. High enough to cover a 90 minute italy to win bet and italy to beat the -1 hc(look the odds ;) ). Also Balotelli to score. They cant focus totally on him. In hsi form I dont think that he will forgive a chance like in first game again. Balotelli scoring a brace gives me the trust that italy converts 1 or two of their chances.