Spain v France > June 23

[ThusPrider]

Re: Spain v France > June 23

Spain -0.5 @ 1.85 Bet365 (4 points) First Booking: Yohan Cabaye @15.00 Skybet (0.5 points) To be booked: Yohan Cabaye @ 3.50 Skybet (1 point) I've been deliberating this one for a while and finally decided on Spain. My initial instincts were to take France on the handicap which was available on +0.75 line which was too big. France have been getting backed though and the line has come back to 0.5 which is more sensible. My main concern with this French side is that they are used to having much of the possession in their matches. Blanc was mocking England before their match saying that only 1 side would be trying to play football. That suggests to me that he wont be prepared to set up in the defensive manner that is needed to stifle the Spanish. If he trys to play his normal game and match Spain i think they could struggle. Bizarrely, Sweden had a lot of the possession in their last match and they ended up winning 2-0. Now Spain won't dominate this like they do against lesser teams but they will definitely have more of the possession and I'm not sure how France will handle it. It looks like Spain will be starting with Torres up front again and though his form is a little inconsistent, he is at least a proper striker and has already bagged 2 goals. With Spain likely to win the midfield battle, I think they will create enough chances to win this match with a proper striker up front. Blanc Is too proud to try and do a defensive job here and I can understand why people might sIDE with France here but my money will be on the Spanish to take advantage of their superior possession. As a couple of side bets I'm having a dabble on Cabaye to pick up a booking. In that first match against England he was very lucky not to get booked and could have picked one up on at least 3 separate occasions. Ironically it is the same ref today but i don't think he will keep getting away with it. It will be a tough battle in the middle and with him having to do a loot of chasing I thinks there is a strong chance of committing fouls. Some players are on bookings but he has a clean slate so won't be quite as weary of going into challenges and missing the next match. With much of the game to be played in the middle of the park, I think a midfielder is likely to pick up the first booking and 14/1 looks too big on Cabaye.

Excellent pick.

[MPLouis]

Re: Spain v France > June 23

Spain v France Spain have been decent if unspectacular so far, the lack of a trusted striker hasn't helped, when Torres has been on the pitch they have certainly looked more comfortable and threatening. The mass of midfielders Spain are often playing and the exceptional quality they possess means that the possession is often monopolized by the Spanish, Xavi, Iniesta, Silva are all great players and among the best midfielders in the competition. This is likely to be Spains toughest game so far, Italy gave them a tough ride but France are one of the dark horses for the competition and most seem mildly confident they may spring a surprise tonight, the particular bet I am looking at relates to ball possession as I think the line on Spain is set far too high and their reputation is proceeding the likely possession they will have. Lets look at both sides games so far: Spain 1 Italy 1: Ball Possession Spain 60% Italy 40% The Italy game was pretty even and Italy even had chances to win, but they (like England) are set up as a counter attacking side, they were unlikely to match Spain in this department. Spain 4 Ireland 0: Ball Possession Spain 66% Ireland 34% The Ireland game was the most one sided of the tournament, Ireland were massively outclassed by a far superior side. Ireland hardly seemed to have the ball at all for any period of time and just hit it long when they did have it losing it straight away, so it is somewhat surprising their ball possession was as high as it was. Spain 1 Croatia 0: Ball Possession Spain 64% Croatia 36% Quite similar to the Italy game, Croatia had a few attacks that might have brought the opening goal, but the quality difference was always there and Spain seemed to have another gear they could go to and sealed the win in the last few minutes. France 1 England 1: Ball Possession France 60% England 40% Quite similar to Spain's opener, on paper their hardest game of the group and while they dominated the ball against a counter attacking side they could only open with a draw. France 2 Ukraine 0: Ball Possession France 52% Ukraine 48% A fairly routine win against a side they would be expected to beat, the possession was pretty equal but France were very clinical when they had the ball. Ukraine overperformed in all their games possession wise boosted by the home support, unfortunately they struggled to do much with it. France 0 Sweden 2: Ball Possession France 57% Sweden 43% A reasonable shock against a decent Swedish side who underperformed in the other two games. In a reverse of the Ukraine game they seemed more comfortable with the ball but couldn't do much with it. If we look at all those games we have two sides who have had more possession in each of their games, France have surprised me by having a formation that only has one up front (Benzema) but even he doesn't stay as far forward as you would expect often dropping back to link with the midfield, certainly not a fulcrum like other lone strikers we have seen. Spain are expected to be similar with Torres up front on his own. While I would be surprised to see France have more ball than Spain they are not going to sit back and be dominated for the 90 minutes, Spain have yet to beat this line in any of their games so far even the Ireland game which they dominated beyond question, I don't think this line justifies how the game is likely to pan out as I don't think Spain will dominate France as they have other sides, I say 60% would have been a fair line, I would be surprised to see them have 67% of the ball in this one. SPAIN BALL POSSESSION UNDER 66.5% - 1.83 - betvictor - 10 Points

I see this won as according to soccerway, Spain had 55% possession - http://uk.soccerway.com/matches/2012/06/23/europe/european-championships/spain/france/1063218/ Excellent research and bet HastGill :clap Thought - watching the game, it looked to me as though Spain had a lot more possession than this. And remembering the Spain v Ireland game, in that one it seemed that Spain had about 80% of possession, and Ireland could hardly get a touch. But the soccerway stats show Ireland had 34% possession and Spain 66% - http://uk.soccerway.com/matches/2012/06/14/europe/european-championships/spain/ireland-republic/1063205/ So it seems that the watching public underestimate the amount of possession Spain have, which might explain why the odds were attractive for this. It might be worth looking at backing the class team for UNDERS possession when there is a class gap like this and people expect possession to be higher.

[MPLouis]

Re: Spain v France > June 23

Excellent pick.

(Re Cabaye booking bets) Beat me to it - super bet wisey :ok

[ThusPrider]

Re: Spain v France > June 23 So wanted to back unders, and its always annoying having to back overs because the odds were not good enough. Dry, uneventful game of few chances and comfortable enough for unders. Though I still stand by my initial judgement of unders being too thin to back. For example, in the dying seconds, Torres could have perhaps scored a cheeky goal... Pedro might have got himself into a better position to score an even cheekier one late on to see my bet through... Of course these are just two extreme examples of what could have happened in the match, and there are plenty of others too. A thoroughly deserved win for the Spanish. not at their best, but better than the French. This result brings my midseason record back to a deficit. Midseason 2012 record -6.85 units Total stake 108 units 23/6/12 UEC Spain vs France Over 2.5 2.570 Pinnacle 10/10 FT 2 - 0 -10 units 23/6/12 UEC Spain vs France Draw 5/2 Coral 5/10 FT 2 - 0 -5 units

[HastGill1]

Re: Spain v France > June 23

Spain v France Spain have been decent if unspectacular so far, the lack of a trusted striker hasn't helped, when Torres has been on the pitch they have certainly looked more comfortable and threatening. The mass of midfielders Spain are often playing and the exceptional quality they possess means that the possession is often monopolized by the Spanish, Xavi, Iniesta, Silva are all great players and among the best midfielders in the competition. This is likely to be Spains toughest game so far, Italy gave them a tough ride but France are one of the dark horses for the competition and most seem mildly confident they may spring a surprise tonight, the particular bet I am looking at relates to ball possession as I think the line on Spain is set far too high and their reputation is proceeding the likely possession they will have. Lets look at both sides games so far: Spain 1 Italy 1: Ball Possession Spain 60% Italy 40% The Italy game was pretty even and Italy even had chances to win, but they (like England) are set up as a counter attacking side, they were unlikely to match Spain in this department. Spain 4 Ireland 0: Ball Possession Spain 66% Ireland 34% The Ireland game was the most one sided of the tournament, Ireland were massively outclassed by a far superior side. Ireland hardly seemed to have the ball at all for any period of time and just hit it long when they did have it losing it straight away, so it is somewhat surprising their ball possession was as high as it was. Spain 1 Croatia 0: Ball Possession Spain 64% Croatia 36% Quite similar to the Italy game, Croatia had a few attacks that might have brought the opening goal, but the quality difference was always there and Spain seemed to have another gear they could go to and sealed the win in the last few minutes. France 1 England 1: Ball Possession France 60% England 40% Quite similar to Spain's opener, on paper their hardest game of the group and while they dominated the ball against a counter attacking side they could only open with a draw. France 2 Ukraine 0: Ball Possession France 52% Ukraine 48% A fairly routine win against a side they would be expected to beat, the possession was pretty equal but France were very clinical when they had the ball. Ukraine overperformed in all their games possession wise boosted by the home support, unfortunately they struggled to do much with it. France 0 Sweden 2: Ball Possession France 57% Sweden 43% A reasonable shock against a decent Swedish side who underperformed in the other two games. In a reverse of the Ukraine game they seemed more comfortable with the ball but couldn't do much with it. If we look at all those games we have two sides who have had more possession in each of their games, France have surprised me by having a formation that only has one up front (Benzema) but even he doesn't stay as far forward as you would expect often dropping back to link with the midfield, certainly not a fulcrum like other lone strikers we have seen. Spain are expected to be similar with Torres up front on his own. While I would be surprised to see France have more ball than Spain they are not going to sit back and be dominated for the 90 minutes, Spain have yet to beat this line in any of their games so far even the Ireland game which they dominated beyond question, I don't think this line justifies how the game is likely to pan out as I don't think Spain will dominate France as they have other sides, I say 60% would have been a fair line, I would be surprised to see them have 67% of the ball in this one. SPAIN BALL POSSESSION UNDER 66.5% - 1.83 - betvictor - 10 Points

A straightforward winner, Spain leading from early on helped as they let France come on to them more than they would if it was 0-0..one of the few bets where the bookies got it really wrong, that line was never in danger..

[wisey10]

Re: Spain v France > June 23

A straightforward winner' date=' Spain leading from early on helped as they let France come on to them more than they would if it was 0-0..one of the few bets where the bookies got it really wrong, that line was never in danger..[/quote'] Excelent pick and research. Crazy line when you think it would have still won even against Ireland. And I agree with you on your thoughts about this Spanish side. Whilst I find them very boring, they are a very, very good side and anyone who beats them will win the tournament.

[MPLouis]

Re: Spain v France > June 23

A straightforward winner' date=' Spain leading from early on helped as they let France come on to them more than they would if it was 0-0..one of the few bets where the bookies got it really wrong, that line was never in danger..[/quote'] HastGill - any comment on my earlier post above about this?

[MPLouis]

Re: Spain v France > June 23 Forgot to say congratulations to all who backed Spain - a comprehensive victory. France were disappointing.

[stereoman]

Re: Spain v France > June 23 Hmmm. Eighth clean sheet in a row for Spain when the games have gone to 'knock out'!? REALLY!? :loon http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spain_national_football_team#Competitive_record The journos are definitely going to peg Spain vs. Portugal as 'The unmoveable object (Spain) vs. The irresistible force (Cristiano Ronaldo)'. The public response to Spain vs. France as a spectacle doesn't seem to generally been favourable so 'the neutrals' will almost certainly be hoping that Portugal can pick the proverbial lock that is Spain's defence.

[HastGill1]

Re: Spain v France > June 23

I see this won as according to soccerway, Spain had 55% possession - http://uk.soccerway.com/matches/2012/06/23/europe/european-championships/spain/france/1063218/ Excellent research and bet HastGill :clap Thought - watching the game, it looked to me as though Spain had a lot more possession than this. And remembering the Spain v Ireland game, in that one it seemed that Spain had about 80% of possession, and Ireland could hardly get a touch. But the soccerway stats show Ireland had 34% possession and Spain 66% - http://uk.soccerway.com/matches/2012/06/14/europe/european-championships/spain/ireland-republic/1063205/ So it seems that the watching public underestimate the amount of possession Spain have, which might explain why the odds were attractive for this. It might be worth looking at backing the class team for UNDERS possession when there is a class gap like this and people expect possession to be higher.

Do you mean overestimate? Sorry if I have misunderstood. As I said earlier I think the fair line would have been 60% for Spain, against Portugal I can't see it being that much different than the game tonight, Spain will more than likely win and I would expect them to keep a clean sheet, I think Portugal are very unlikely to get through to the final. Be interesting to see what they set the line at, perhaps 61.5%? I don't think Spain will have to play much better than they did tonight to get through to the final, Portugal are no great shakes.. Portugal have won more possession than the opposition in only 1 of their 4 games and I don't think they have any chance of winning more than 42% against Spain, I would be more nervous about betting Portugal on a big handicap than I was about France. But then France were garbage and the bet won comfortably. I think you would need to see the line before making any decisions..Possession is unaffected by minor mistakes that might lead to goals which is why it appeals to me more than betting on AH in games at this stage, the research you put in is more likely to pay off. Hope that makes sense, I'm pretty knackered now..

[MPLouis]

Re: Spain v France > June 23

Do you mean overestimate?

Yeah - my mistake, I meant underestimate. Watching Spain v France tonight, I would have guessed that Spain had at least 65% possession, but the stats say they had 55%. Spain v Portugal will certainly be worth keeping tabs on. Congralutations again on an excellent bet :ok

[Mustafa]

Re: Spain v France > June 23

I think France represent value in this game. They have young and talented squad' date=' while Spain only outplayed Ireland in the tournament.[/quote'] Was at Donbass Arena yesterday. I expected more from this gamd, especially from France and thought it will be an interesting game after Spain scored early. Now I understand why France were @5.00 .

[CiderHead]

Re: Spain v France > June 23

I'm taking another bet in the corner market in this tournament which has been profitable so far. In Spain's three group games they conceded; 2 corners to Italy, 2 to Ireland and 4 against Croatia. France won 11 against England, 6 against Ukraine and 8 against Sweden. I expect Spain to dominate possession like they normally do leaving France to hit them on the counter attack with the pace of Ribery and Benzema in particular. There front players have linked well in attack without finding an end product too often in the tournament. They have averaged 12.67 shots from outside the box which can lead to deflections forcing corners and the full backs capable of going outside the wide men to put crosses into the box. They are quite capable of short interchanges around the box similair to Spain, which forces the opposition into blocks and last ditch tackles. All things considered I think this is the wrong line for the corners so quite happy to take this on. France Over 3 Corners 1.87 (7/10) BetVictor

France have named a negative looking team, which suggests they will let Spain have the ball and try to hit them on the counter attack. With Spain playing without a recognised striker again I can see this game being low scoring. With all the problems in the France squad I think they will struggle to put in a good performance. I can't see France winning this with a draw being the best they can hope for over 90 minutes. As Spain's price has drifted I see some value on them at odds of 1.91 Spain 1.91 (5/10) BetVictor

1/2. A loss on this round :(

[stereoman]

Re: Spain v France > June 23 I wish I knew beforehand that in David Villa's absence, it's Xabi Alonso who is the main penalty-taker...it explains why Fernando Torres doesn't take 'em! The aftermath from Bettingzone Market News: 2215: Spain are now the 7/4 favourites with BetVictor to win Euro 2012 after a routine 2-0 victory over France booked a semi-final clash against Portugal. Xabi Alonso marked his 100th appearance for Spain by scoring both goals for the defending champions and that has seen them move above Germany at the head of the betting. The Germans follow at 15/8 with Portugal 6/1 shots for glory with Blue Square and William Hill. England and Italy meet on Sunday night to compete for the right to face Germany and they can't be split in the outright betting at 11/1. William Hill make Spain 6/4 favourites and Joe Crilly of the firm said: "Spain were aided in their progression by a lacklustre France side, but despite this it would take a brave man to back against them now - highlighted by the £1m plus liability we have on them." Vicente del Bosque's men are 20/21 with Boylesports to beat Portugal in Wednesday night's semi-final encounter and 2/5 to reach the final. The Portuguese are 4/1 for the victory at the end of 90 minutes in Donetsk with 11/5 the best available price for them to progress.

[Jase82]

Re: Spain v France > June 23 I thought pre game and still think that this French side are being over estimated considerably... Spain weren't poor last night. They just didn't need to do a lot to win, and France weren't crap. They were just not good enough. This Spanish team are better than anything we've seen in a generation... No disrespect in losing to them. Well done all winners!

[carat]

Re: Spain v France > June 23

Spain vs France OVER 2.5 goals @ 2.62 (Pinnacle) Bookies obviously not expecting too many goals in this one, but 2.62 just looks too big of a price to me. Both teams haven't looked that great, but the same can be said about their defenses. France and Spain have got a lot of talented and skilled players and can produce goals out of nowhere. Not playing it as big as Germany yesterday, but just a smaller value play.

Thought France would create at least one chance :lol. Never felt like this was going over...

[blackcrow]

Re: Spain v France > June 23 France did not even put up a fight. Poor tactics by Blanc - at least have a go rather than going for a "creditable loss"

[MPLouis]

Re: Spain v France > June 23

France did not even put up a fight. Poor tactics by Blanc - at least have a go rather than going for a "creditable loss"

It looked as though France tried to contain Spain in midfield and use the pace of Ribery to get behind them when they had a chance. They had a good spell at the start of the second half, but in general they just didn't get enough men forward. In general it seemed too defensive and was certainly ineffective against Spain with their ruthless possession and passing based domination. Spain weren't exciting to watch, but you had to be impressed all the same.

[Kiddo112]

Spain's first half record in final tournaments since Euro 2008 EUR12 v Croatia - 0-0 EUR12 v Ireland - 1-0 EUR12 v Italy - 0-0 WC10 v Holland - 0-0 WC10 v Germany - 0-0 WC10 v Paraguay - 0-0 WC10 v Portugal - 0-0 WC10 v Chile - 2-0 WC10 v Honduras - 1-0 WC10 v Switzerland - 0-0 EUR08 v Germany - 1-0 EUR08 v Russia - 0-0 EUR08 v Italy - 0-0 EUR08 v Greece - 0-1 EUR08 v Sweden - 1-1 EUR08 v Russia - 2-0 In bold are knock-out games, so that's 6 out of 7 that were 0-0 at HT. And in their last 10 (going back to WC 2010) they have only lead (and scored) in 3 of 10 games (and that against Ireland, Honduras and the attack-minded Chile). HT 0-0 @2.625 Betfred for me Will also be doing singles & doubles of Spain-France & Italy-England going to penalties. 0.5pts Spain & Italy to win on pens @169 0.5pts Spain & England to win on pens @169 0.5pts France & Italy to win on pens @169 0.5pts France & England to win on pens @169 Combined odds for both matches to go to penalties = 42.25 Bet365

Typical Spain performance, happy to keep the ball and confident they will score at some point. Shame it was a very sloppy goal from France's point of view, and while dominating possession they weren't creating many real clear chances. Spain had only 5 attempts on target the whole game, and Alonso's penalty in injury time was the only one on target in the entire 2nd half. I believe that's a goal record of F10 A0 in last 8 knock out games.

[Kiddo112]

Hey I really like that half time statistic, I had then 2-0 anytime which in my eyes was a safe bet but well done for digging all those out! Where did you find the ht stats? Would like to have access to those babies myself without having to go through each individual match report

Unfortunately I had to go true the matches on soccerway to confirm the stats. Just to be clear, the P8 F10 A0 in knockout phase is over 90 mins. That's off the top of my head, so may be slightly out, but the point is they keep the ball looking to tire out the opposition, aren't fussed if they don't score until the 2nd half, and don't mind winning 1-0.