Royal Ascot Day 3 ~ Thursday 21st June

[BillyHills]

All selections and discussion in here please Royal Ascot Day Three - Thursday 21st June 2012 Time Race Class Dist. 14.30 The Norfolk Stakes Group 2 5f 15.05 The Ribblesdale Stakes Group 2 1m4f 15.50 The Gold Cup Group 1 2m4f 16.25 The Britannia Stakes Heritage Handicap 1m 17.00 The Hampton Court Stakes Listed 1m2f 17.35 The King George V Stakes Heritage Handicap 1m4f

[beaker1]

Re: Royal Ascot Day 3 ~ Thursday 21st June 2.30 – Norfolk Stakes (Group 2) Excluding the 2010 winner Approve, each of the previous 11 winners had been successful last time out; often at smaller tracks 9 of the last 12 winners hadn’t raced over further than 5f 9 of the last 12 winners started at 6-1 or shorter 8 of the last 12 winners were making only their 2nd or 3rd start Although there are only 12 runners in this years Norfolk, unlike the Coventry and Queen Mary which both attracted huge fields, it is arguably the most competitive 2yo race so far. CAY VERDE wouldn’t be the strongest trends pick as he has already raced 3 times but there has been a lot to like about him so far this season. After an acceptable debut at Newbury, he absolutely hosed up over course and distance and the form of that race has worked out nicely as the runner-up Hototo, won at Ayr next time before winning Tuesday’s Windsor Castle. Channon’s colt went onto produce an equally impressive performance when winning the Marble Hill Stakes at the Curragh. Richard Hughes took the ride that day and it would be fair to say that although they didn’t hang around, he only had to get low in the saddled to drive this colt out for a comfortable victory. The runner-up, Dylanbaru has also franked the form when beaten only a length in Tuesday’s Windsor Castle. But this isn’t the foregone conclusion that it might sound as there are some serious rivals in opposition. Reckless Abandon looked a very promising colt when winning on his debut at Doncaster, in fact he earned the best speed figures on the card when powering home last month, which is no mean feat for a juvenile on his debut. Annunciation was 2L behind him on Town Moor but put that experience to good use when he ran out a 6L winner at Windsor next time. That suggests that there is little to separate them. Hannon’s second string, Mister Marc is no mug having won well on his debut at Goodwood and then chased home Dawn Approach, yesterday’s Coventry winner, in a Listed contest at Naas. Ahern powered clear on his debut at Musselburgh in a race that Frederick Engels won last year before his Windsor Castle success and earlier winners all went onto place in either the Norfolk or the Queen Mary. He was a little green early on but when the penny dropped he showed a dazzling turn of foot to win a shade cosily. Others for consideration include Gale Force Ten and Morawij. Whatever the outcome, this looks a race that could have reverberations throughout the season. 3.05 – Ribblesdale Stakes (Group 2) 9 of the last 12 winners had raced no more than three times as a juvenile 9 of the last 12 winners had won over at least 1m2f 8 of the last 12 winners achieved a top two finish last time (6 were winners) 3 of the last 12 winners had run in the Oaks Two winning favourites and 1 joint favourite in the last decade Saeed Bin Suroor has won the 3 times since 2004 Strictly on a line through the Oaks form a strong case could be argued for PRINCESS HIGHWAY who staked her claim by beating the Oaks winner Was in the Blue Wind Stakes at Naas in May. Always traveling well, she looked in total control a furlong out and stuck gamely to the task in hand when running out a 1L winner. Prior to her victory at Naas, she had beaten a good yardstick in Betterbetterbetter in a Leopardstown maiden. Although she wasn’t entered in the Oaks, Weld suggested at Naas that she wouldn’t take in the Irish1,000 Guineas or Oaks, instead eyeing a trip to Royal Ascot for the Ribblesdale, a race he won with Princess Highway’s dam Irresistible Jewel back in 2002. In fact, to quote the legendary Irish trainer, he said: “I think the logical progression will be to go for the Ribblesdale now. This filly is a late-maturing type and I think waiting for Royal Ascot is the prudent way to go. She will learn from today and I think as the year progresses, she will definitely be a Group One filly.” Although Shirocco Star finished one place ahead of The Fugue in the Oaks, John Gosden’s filly was the one to take out of the race as she didn’t have the easiest of passages, so did well to stay on for 3rd. She had looked awesome when winning the Musidora the time before and can bounce back tomorrow with a big run. Momentary ran well on her debut at Newbury in April and put that experience to good use when winning the Swettenham Stud Fillies’ Trial, beating Shirocco Star a short-head in the process. That form has worded out nicely and although she will need to make another step-up, she does look the sort to be open to further improvement. 3.50 – Gold Cup (Group 1) All of the last 12 winners were male 10 of the last 12 winners came from the first four in the betting (6 favourites) 11 of the last 12 winners had already run that season over 1m6f+ (including NH) 9 of the last 12 winners had won a Group race over 2m+ 10 of the last 12 winners were aged between four and six (Yeats recorded the other two) 7 of the last 12 winners had won last time out The trends surrounding the Gold Cup are skewed somewhat due to Yeats’ recent dominance and further back in time the multiple winners Sadeem, Drum Taps and Royal Rebel. Even so, all know facts suggest that FAME AND GLORY should record his second win in the race. He looked as good as ever when winning the Vintage Crop Stakes on his reappearance and no doubt O’Brien had still left a bit to work on. On all know form last season, he does look to hold Opinion Poll although Godolphin’s runner does look to have improved over the winter, firstly when winning in Dubai on World Cup night, and again when winning the Henry II Stakes at Sandown last month. Godolphin also have a likely candidate in the shape of Colour Vision who progressed significantly last season when with Mark Johnston. Third in the Cesarewitch, which is no mean feat for a 3yo, he then ran Fame And Glory to just over a length on Champion’s Day. He looked to have wintered well when making his reappearance at Kempton when he handed Red Cadeaux a 1 1/2L beating and Ed Dunlop’s runner then franked the form by winning the Yorkshire Cup before finishing runner-up in the Coronation Cup at Epsom. The O’Brien horse does look the most likely winner but a small bet on Colour Vision wouldn’t look out of place if he can keep on improving this season. Saddler’s Rock is another 4yo that should progress this year if his defeat of Opinion Poll in last season’s Yorkshire Cup is anything to go by. He did suffer a minor set-back in the spring which delayed his comeback until 8th June when he finished runner-up in the Saval Beg Stakes at Leopardstown. John Oxx said beforehand that he would need to race and also expressed doubts about the testing conditions so he must have been pleased to see him travel nicely throughout before staying on well through the closing stages. He will be sharper for the experience and as long as the heavens don’t open, he looks sure to run a big race. 4.25 – Britannia Stakes (Heritage Handicap) 17 of the last 21 winners had not run in more than two handicaps 10 of the last 13 winners had achieved a top 3 finish last time 7 of the last 13 winners had raced five times or less 9 of the last 13 winners were officially rated between 90 and 100 5 of the last 8 winners had been drawn in stall 4 or lower James Fanshawe and John Gosden are trainers to follow The Britannia usually goes the way of a lightly raced and unexposed runner and FOREST ROW fits the bill nicely. A half-brother to Presvis, he was well-supported ahead of his debut at Newbury in May last year and ran an okay race to finish 5th. He then suffered a set-back with kept him off the track until October when he was again well-backed but ultimately failed to live up to expectations. He made no mistake on his reappearance back at Newbury when he won with plenty of authority, having travelled well and then finding plenty on the run to the line. Being gelded over the winter obviously helped and he looks the sort that can go on improving this season in handicaps off his current mark of 88. Born To Surprise fits a similar mould. Runner-up on his sole start at two, he looked very impressive when winning a Doncaster maiden at the Lincoln meeting. After that victory he was touted as a possible Guineas horse but a lack-lustre performance in the Craven soon put paid to that. He is undoubtedly better than that showing and he looks an interesting runner here off a mark of 92. Fast Or Free looked a bit weak on his sole juvenile start but he seemed to have matured when winning on his reappearance at Kempton in May. That earned him a mark of 80 but he had no trouble following up in a competitive Newmarket handicap 12 days ago. He has showed a really likeable attitude on his 2 starts this season and a revised mark of 87 might not be enough to stop his progressing further. Kahruman run into a nice type in Wrotham Heath on his sole start last season but had no trouble getting off the mark at Kempton on his reappearance. He followed that with a solid performance when 4th in the Listed Heron Stakes at Sandown next time when he was conceding experience to many of his rivals. His showed good battling qualities that day which he will need to do again as the handicapper has shown no mercy giving him a rating of 98. 5.00 – Tercentenary Stakes (Formerly the Hampton Court Stakes (Listed)) 3 winning favourites in the last 11 years Only 1 winner in the last decade has carried a penalty 8 of the last 12 winners achieved a top three finish last time 4 of the last 12 winners had ran in the Dante Stakes Wrotham Heath looks to be Sir Henry Cecil’s number one string based on jockey bookings even though he is 13lb inferior to Stipulate going into the race. But, having said that he was a very impressive winner on the Derby card and does hold an entry in the Irish Derby. He had looked a Derby contender after winning his maiden at two but ran into a nice horse on his reappearance at Newbury and then looked a non-stayer hen stepped up to 1m4f at Newmarket next time. Back down in trip he won a shade more cosily that the official margin suggests at Epsom and he therefore looks to have plenty to offer tomorrow. Also in the Khalid Abdulla colours is Starboard who looked a bright prospect when slamming his rivals at Redcar on only his second start last season. He flopped when odds-on in a 3-runner affair at Newmarket on his reappearance but looked much better when stepped up to 10f at Doncaster next time. He could have gone down the King Edward VII route but connections have opted to keep him at 1m2f for the moment, no doubt with one eye on his Eclipse entry. Most Improved bounced back to win the St James’s Palace on Tuesday and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see TALES OF GRIMM run a big race tomorrow. An impressive maiden winner on his sole start at two when he had the decent Firdaws and the ill-fated The Nile in second and third, he had been touted as a possible 2000 Guineas winner in the spring. But he didn’t make his comeback until the end of May when he ran an encouraging race to finish 3rd to Cogito in the Listed Heron Stakes at Sandown; 2L behind Stipulate. He looked plenty fresh enough that day and Ryan Moore had to settle him right at the back of the field. Once asked for an effort he picked up nicely, staying on well to grab 3rd place. That should have knocked the edge off him and assuming he settled better, he is entitled to go close. 5.35 – King George V Stakes (Handicap) Mark Johnston and Sir Michael Stoute have each won 3 of the last 11 renewals Only 2 winning favourites in the last 11 years (shortest priced winner 9/2) 11 of the last 12 winners achieved a top three finish last time 10 of the last 12 winners were officially rated at least 87 None of the last 10 winners carried more than 8st 13lb 10 of the last 12 winners had won at least once earlier in the season Fennell Bay beat his older rivals at Sandown on Saturday but a mile looks to be more like his trip and therefore Prussian might prove the better of the 2 Johnston runners. This tough Dubai Destination filly was progressing nicely this year, winning her first 2 starts before a lack-lustre effort on soft ground at Nottingham. That left everyone scratching their heads but she bounced back to form with another strong performance when winning at Redcar earlier this month. She is also untried over the trip but has looked as if she would get it and therefore has to come into consideration for a trainer that has such a good record in the race. Another apparent second string, Pilgrims Rest is another that looks to have strong credentials. Richard Hughes rode him when winning on his reappearance at Newbury and again when winning at Leicester later that month. He is 12lb higher tomorrow than when recording the first of those 2 victories but quite why Hughes has got off to ride Rougemont who has 9st 7lb is a bit of a mystery to me. Gabrial The Great looked a nice colt when winning easily on his reappearance at Newcastle in April. He stepped up on that next time when chasing home the potentially very smart Rosslyn Castle as Chester’s May meeting. The trip won’t hold and concerns for this son of Montjeu although it remains to be seen if he will be as effective on a faster surface. ANOMOLY produced 2 solid efforts last season before making a very eye-catching reappearance at Nottingham last month. Very nicely bred, this Pivotal colt made all for a thoroughly convincing victory which had connections thinking of the Derby at the time. That would have been a very big ask for a maiden winner but this does look much more sensible as he looks to have a bright future stating from a mark of 93